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Happy hour will be rockin’ today! Cheers to canceling / uncanceling winter on 11/24.

If it's at all helpful, I know that Tropical Tidbits offers some euro AI data with Pivotal Weather having a more extensive selection of publicly available products, including basic snowfall output for the euro AI and maybe its ensemble. https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf_aifs/sn10_acc-imp/conus?run=2025112412&forecastHour=156

Well if your front yard faces southeast, then your back should be northwest right. If you’re looking at your backyard, then move to the right some…that should be north I’d imagine.

Anyone ever done flavor injection for a turkey? Trying it for the first time this year, and seeking opinions/others experiences

I hate to say it, but I feel the Eagles are on the verge of a 2023-type collapse. This team is way too soft to even hold on to a 21-0 lead. The offense is broken, and the defense can only hold up for so long. (In fact, I can see the defense starting to crack.) The Eagles are going to lose on Friday, and will probably end with a 9-8 or 10-7 record. That may still be good enough to win the NFC East, but we will likely lose to a team like Seattle in the Wild Card round.

I agree. I see the usual warmanistas on the Main Forum are using Ensembles to preach their warm Outlook still but, now calling it a possibility. Also, not wanting to admit they were sold the first Week of the Month would be warm. I like those guys personally and they're smart meteorologically speaking but, as with many have their biases and let that sway them.

I see the AI model referenced frequently. Is this publicly available or behind a paywall?

FYI

they all happen around December 5 as well, so it has to happen!

I don't think that is look is a slam dunk, but nice to see 12z deterministic runs(across the board) show a great pattern. Ensembles are understandably slow to respond. I think a lot of the mean temps are skewed on the ensembles. There are 4-5 big ridges out of 20 members. The temps under those 4-5 members are skewing the mean. If those were tossed as outliers, the mean would be much colder. Hopefully, those warmer ensemble members begin to exit as we get closer...that could mean deterministic models may be closer to being right.

You guys are dumb

The kiss of death here The AI model seems to have a good beat on this one. Pretty consistent with the lead wave

Yeah, the Trough orientation screams gulf wave or LP Production and even hints of Anafrontal.

NOW it won’t happen.

Sorry but you get a for worrying about a torched SE lawn in SLK.

So no more East Hartford?

Big day. We have the keys now…just have to move stuff across the village (not that far, SLK is tiny) in the coming weeks. The VP2 should be here next week and then I will have official WXW2 obs. Siting will be blah since basically anywhere I put it will have rain shadowing/wind issues. Front yard faces east and south so it gets torched. Backyard is quite nice and the opposite side is north so good spot to get a snow stake up. First snow depth measurement is between 0-6”. My likely measuring spot is at 4.5”.

He's uncertain about 3.5 weeks from now, which is just stating the obvious really. I get there are levels of uncertainty, but 20+ days from now is always going to be low. Models haven't really been too steady past day 10 or so for the past several weeks. Look at this eps trend gif for Dec 1 going back a few runs. Can it flip back, maybe, but having any confidence in longer range right now seems pretty futile.

Ah, yeah. Thanks for the reminder. I about forgot about the mid-day game!!!

Don’t worry it will be 86’d here soon.

Gray mixy zone 4lyfe

12z op runs all have wintry precip in our area or close. Phew! So glad winter is uncancelled again!

Thanks for all the posts Carvers. I had to take care of some stuff early today to clear up my Tennessee game time. Checking in during commercial breaks.

December 1-10 should start warm but then get cold. The question is whether it remains generally cold into late December or turns milder near mid-month. That’s the part that is increasingly uncertain.

Jk....Ellinwood is amazing!