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Never had a chance

Nice improvements in the temperature department on the 0z runs. The models get Erica back to near 70W off the Carolinas. So it erodes the ridge and lowers the 500mb heights. This causes the current warm pattern to end by early next week. Tropical systems are often the wild card for us after mid-August heatwaves. They can stay offshore like the current guidance shows and still weaken the WAR or Southeast Ridge. The new runs now have lower heights in the East in just 12 hours. So we need later runs to get the storm back near 70W for the relaxation of the heat to continue. Remember, the long range pattern all summer has been to build heights higher than the original forecasts. But it often takes a tropical system to disrupt heat patterns along the East Coast this time of year. New runs have Erica weakening the ridge into the long range Old run kept the heat going into next week Late August ridge weakened in just one run. Will it hold for later runs? Stay tuned… New run Old run

13-14 was not driven by ENSO IMO. It was driven by a Victoria mode PDO (pseudo +PDO) on its way to becoming the very strong +PDO of 14-15. There was also no -IOD in 13-14. I 100% believe we see a weak La Niña this season, given the SOI, MEI, -PDO, -PMM, -IOD, easterly wind bursts, RONI, subsurface

Record high of 86 yesterday at Bradford.

54 degrees this morning for the low. Mow #21 in yesterday it was 10 days in between mows this time. We really could use some rain.

Will be interesting to see how high it can get at Caribou, Maine. Point-click forecast has 94, 1F shy of August monthly record and 2F shy of the all-time record set most recently on June 19 of last year, and previously on June 29, 1944 & May 22, 1977.

it’s over dude

She not gone.. that low in the Ohio Valley has been showing up on some runs.. get that ridge to build in.a bit and that low in Ohio to be a bit further west and it could be fun..

Back in NY. Lame. Feels nice out this morning tho, little tease of fall before we hit 95 this week again and the short term drought worsens…

Mostly mid to upper 80s here for the next week. One 90 in the forecast. Uptick in humidity will be most noticeable.

She gone

WB 0Z EPS tracks. Mean east of Bermuda, well east of the coast.

I cracked 90 with a high of 89.8 yesterday.

Regardless of eventual direct impacts on the east coast, a major hurricane that makes it west of 60 west will be a prolific swell producer. Since it is relatively early beaches will be impacted. Closures for rip currents, and minor beach erosion.

Go fishe

Highly unlikely that thing makes it to the US based on those above graphics. There is a notable northward component this far out. And some projected kinks in the ridge down the road to add. But it will absolutely moisten the palate for everything that follows.

Cmc also

Hope you get it along with lots beneficial rain while staying real safe.

Closer on gfs

0Z UKMET for what may be first AEW behind 97L: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 16.0N 49.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 17.08.2025 156 17.0N 51.1W 1010 27 0000UTC 18.08.2025 168 18.4N 53.9W 1011 24

0Z UKMET recurves along 63.3W: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 17.8N 32.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.08.2025 36 18.1N 35.6W 1008 32 0000UTC 13.08.2025 48 17.5N 39.4W 1007 29 1200UTC 13.08.2025 60 17.9N 42.4W 1007 30 0000UTC 14.08.2025 72 18.8N 45.3W 1007 31 1200UTC 14.08.2025 84 19.9N 48.8W 1007 31 0000UTC 15.08.2025 96 20.5N 51.8W 1006 30 1200UTC 15.08.2025 108 21.0N 54.9W 1005 40 0000UTC 16.08.2025 120 21.7N 57.2W 1004 42 1200UTC 16.08.2025 132 22.8N 60.0W 1003 46 0000UTC 17.08.2025 144 23.9N 61.7W 1003 44 1200UTC 17.08.2025 156 25.7N 63.3W 1003 42 0000UTC 18.08.2025 168 28.1N 63.3W 1003 45

Better. Yes it looks like a generally dry period for our area, but there is some uncertainty. Any rain we do see will most likely come in the form of convection and it will be scattered. Haves and have nots.

PBL at 90F vs. 95F at BTV. The PBL readings should lead to some great studies. Record highs at 100F or chilly lake induced air? How did that site produce the random highs it did this summer?