All Activity

In RRFS we trust

The most concerning thing to me is the lack of a region-wide snowstorm (not this nickel and dime, hit or miss stuff). It’s become a thing.

Icon went from a solid advisory at 12z to flakes in the air at 00z

Today was another nice day for a walk here! Mid to low 60s, sunshine, a light breeze, and dewpoints in the 40s.

0z GFS keeps even the LSV in the game for the chance of a little snow on Tuesday.

The changes from 12z to 00z on gfs pretty much sums up the last 5+ years here. We get one good run and then it crumbles until verification

so far going back through this winter the temp forecasts have not been very accurate when it comes to 1 how long cold or warm would last and 2 overall temps have busted lower then forecasted many times.

To be fair, December 2021 in December 2023 we’re quite warm and mild for much of the country which was not similar to this month because this month featured colder and sometimes well colder than average temperatures for the eastern third of the US and the northern tier. And of course there were several snow events as well, which is also unlike December 2021 and December 2023. January 20 22 and January 20 24 got off to a rather stormy star, however remain generally stormy and colder for most of the country (although the impact on our snow totals that season is debatable), there was still plenty of cold air and active weather traversing CONUS. My only point in saying this is that the pattern can truly flip on a dime, like it did in those two instances. However, much of the warm and mild conditions during December 2023 in December 2021, I believe, was due to a jet extension which flooded the country with mild Pacific air. This month, there is an omega Ridge over the central US, which might make the pattern flip a bit more delayed and a bit trickier because it will require whole scale changes in the pacific in order to knock that ridge down and allow some storms and cold air to come back across the US. That being said, unlike December 2021 in December 2023, our source region (Canada) remains quite cold and snowy, so anytime the polar vortex becomes a bit disturbed or a ridge forms over the Arctic, it should force the cold air from Canada down into the US. So maybe we will see a big pattern change like January 2022 in January 2024 hopefully

This graphic epitomizes the past 7 years for me....I reside right under that "x"....

It usually means our weather is winter warm, but I can at least live vicariously when they get two 3+ feet snows 3x a week.

It moved north...actually a bit better than 12z for MBY.

interesting it’s far windier tonight than it was anytime yesterday on top of the hill here in East Hartland

Then there's the gfs

Still learning...the awful forecasts are very instructive.

IVT.....lol

Doubt at your own peril.

I've been warning it would strengthen in mid December into February since early last fall. But as others have intimated, that by no. means January is a lost cause.

And not surprisingly, Dec/Jan 1917-18 was (one of) the coldest in E US on record!

Well not whiff but disorganized mess

Well, all I said was cold/BN without referring to snow. I think we all know it can still snow in an AN temps regime, just harder generally speaking. The fact is, however, we just went through a well BN period with most just squeaking out light total snowfall numbers save those in the central/southern VA locations. So "no", I didn't say we should punt anything. Simply that Europe is in line for BN temps on today's weeklies and that may rotate over the the Conus around the end of the month if history repeats as in the fall. The problem is Ralph, you were just dying to say that people are now punting January. My guess is, you were, in fact, the one thinking on punting January.

0z GFS is garbage.

Gfs is a whiff lol.

I expected some stretches like this during December, which pretty much worked out.

There's a wild temperature gradient across my area right now. I just came home from Knoxville, and dropped my friend and his wife off in Caryville, it was 57 at his house. It's 31 at my house. I live 10 miles NE of him.

Man, you go over my head with this stuff, but I do absolutely expect a very favorable Pacific to take shape by mid month.