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Pretty decent agreement between ICON, GFS, and CMC of some vorts flying around the *could* get us a coastal storm. The problem is coming outta our torch there isn't much cold around.

GFS at 12z looks...different

Same here. There’s just not enough cold air to work with unless we get some sort of mega wedge as we work into the medium range. You can see in the 12z guidance already that our PNA is looking a bit better and we get a train of energy coming down out of the Rockies. It’s usually never the first storm here anyways - always the second and third you have to watch.

Still hanging on here but south facing areas bare...

6z would be a long weekend for many..... dont look at nooner. missed the phase and a big nothinburger. Just one run, but still has a good look.

GGEM doesn’t quite get it to happen, but some snow for our region late next week. Particularly N/W areas. Sloppy phase as guidance keeps showing.

Have to agree... hopefully we're wrong, but experience shows... The Denver Post this AM has some predictions that had me laughing out loud, along the lines of "Tonight, there's a 100% chance of darkness." Copied/pasted: 1 to 11 inches in Aurora, Golden, Lakewood and Littleton 1 to 12 inches in Centennial 1 to 13 inches in Parker and Castle Rock

58.8 in NW DC. Feels like the warmth is over performing. Suns out.

Yeah I have noticed you do that, which is great. Obviously it is a major PITA to really do which sucks. Like I've always said, I wish I was skilled enough to take the daily values provided by the CPC for NAO, AO, PNA and create a rolling bi-weekly index. I'm sure this could easily be done in like Excel but it's not as easy as just taking the daily values, adding, and doing an average. There's way more to it...like if you take the daily values for a particular month and divide by the number of days...the value won't match what the monthly index value is.

A very icy morning here, now it’s snowing and coming down hard.

I'm also thinking the storm around the 15th is more of a Northeast threat and sets the stage for more southerly storm tracks

fwiw, 6z GFS makes your wish come true. Verbatim a true miller A and a CTP shellackin. Funny that 12z loses it, as the NS/SS phase is late, but still has a decent look to it. As has been stated a plenty, after the few day warmup/thaw, we should be back to "storms and rumors of storms". I love that catchphrase.

...aaaaaaaaannnnd poof! She gone! LOL!

CMC looks like it's setting up something beyond day 7 GFS cooked up something but too late into the Maritimes, closer to day 9

Big takeaway, this pattern, especially if the TPV continues to show up in lower latitudes is flirting with big dog potential. I’m not as concerned about suppression because we are already seeing some west Atlantic ridging and linkage between energy for once. Should slow things down, allow phasing for a change, and watch it ride that gradient.

Expect I'll lose all but the plowed mounds by the end of the day.

I think @bluewavedoes that. I usually do that more in the narrative explanation, but I did add some graphics for January to break down the mid month pattern evolution...ie PT regime to +TNH transition.

Likely LBSW

Having my classes learn about the blizzard of '96 and here are a few of the links we're using. https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/the-blizzard-of-96-in-retrospect-25-years-later https://www.wgal.com/article/pa-weather-history-blizzard-of-1996/69925737

This. I think when it comes to creating composites, focusing on weekly or biweekly intervals versus just a monthly averaged plot would end up yielding a more accurate assessment and I think it would really help to add clarity when you're dealing with transient patterns and the transition periods.

That ain't nothing. Check out Justin Berks page on Facebook. He posted my chase footage from the Tug. Gfs doesn't look like it's going to do it again.

HAHA ... man, the ICON is setting up just a delicious bi-polar American WX Forum experience for the 15th, huh

This is the kind of snow I want!!!!! https://www.facebook.com/share/r/182KBNCDpG/

The 12z AIGFS is pretty much a Feb 2015 redux. Nickel and dimes lined up.

To your point, one really needs to play out the evolution in shortened intervals to see some of these idiosyncrasies of the period in question because it gets smoothed out in the mean. This is probably why it was biased more east during some of these oscillations.