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That seems....extreme.

I'll never forget the GEM was the first model to catch on to that December 2022 system phasing with the PV lobe and going west just before Xmas....I laughed at it and dismissed initially, but of course it nailed that.

This sounds much more tame than your doomsday ice storm scenario from year's past. I vaguely remember you mentioning things like toilets not flushing because of power failure at wastewater treatment facilities and such. Maybe I am misremembering

Lock the thread

And doth quoth the Raven: "Snow more"

I wonder if's due to CC at all? Anyone have any opinions on that?? @WinterWolf.... @Typhoon Tip??

Sometimes it surpasses GFS at H5 but it rarely scores a snowier coup. Last time I actually remember them hammering a snowier solution vs other guidance and winning was the 2/2/15 storm. My guess is both GGEM and RGEM will cave soon. But who knows….stranger things have happened.

Oh that is quite a step back. Next run it will be in line with the euro. Garbage model

Sure it will be a blank map by tonight.

Well AI is still steadfast. I don’t give a damn what the op models say with such stability. No one has given a reason to ignore the AI versions.

Pardon my ignorance but is all this waffling due to the fast flow of this? I do see that this thing doesn't stick around on any model.

Looks pretty decent west of a HFD-FIT-MHT line. Wouldn't be surprised if some of the higher spots pull 3-5'' out of this.

Its not a miss for eastern areas. Has 2.5" here verbatim. Now do I believe its correct?

Nice . Both events.

In this winter? Yes it is.

PAIN

Waiting on Jerry to report Uncle soon lol

meh to is his or her own as the old sayn goes. some of us do a lot of outdoor life during the summer that is at best hindered to do so when cannot be done in winters. for these types, about the only redeeming value winter has is the fascination of storminess. when that is at a premium ...to put it nicely, the point of it is time-wasting. and frankly, a lot of delusion and avoidance of obviousness enough to roll eyes needs to happen to deny the futility. ugh. no thanks. makes this journey really pretty bad.

What a craptastic winter. We’re gonna spend 3 days tracking 0.08” of rainfall here

doesn't GGEM rank better than GFS?

2" is smoked?

Icon and Canadian actually bring some accumulations up this way. I aint getting my hopes up. Edit: Not the Icon just the Canadian lol

CMC actually a smidge better.

Trust we won’t have an issue with cold rain and plenty of moisture end of month

That was a great winter and during a time that chemcial ice treatments were just being developed and adopted. As a result most municipalites just used straight rock salt which is ineffective in such cold weather. So yeah, if you drove a car that winter you can't forget the ice caked on the roads. Nowadays the rock salt gets chemically treated so its effective at lower temps, plus we don't seen cold like that.