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It’s really coming down to intensity and how mid-levels act. Euro is just a bit more organized, mitigating any warm air intrusion beyond the south coast, while the GFS brings that further inland about 30 miles.

Snow/sleet in Potomac

This is how much the euro AI changed in 36hrs to the current 6z run

8.5" final here. If we didn't have an afternoon lull, dd's might have been in play. Regardless, 13.9" of snow in November IMBY. Pretty remarkable. And looks like a nice little refresher coming tomorrow afternoon/evening. What a start to the season.

WB 6Z EURO

Snow in Columbia!!!

I truly wouldn't put much stock into their forecast. It's going to change.

Anecdotally my phone forecast went from 1-3” with .5 rain before I went to bed back up to 7-9” this morning. Doesn’t mean much, but happy it didn’t go the other way for what it’s worth

GYX is aggressive here with 5-9 in zones plus more in the early evening. Going with blend on qpf of .7-1.0

Looks like a very bad forecast

Looks like a GFS/NAM leaning forecast

Still snowing and winds have increased significantly. Saw two accidents happen yesterday, typical snow fender bender and another in the ditch. Widespread win for this board, the Monday system looks more likely to over achieve than under, liking the trends on the latest cycle.

Aren't they always the most cautious. They are the same with their temp outlooks too.

Sounds like watches may be hoisted for some later on this afternoon. The latest WPC probabilities of 0.25" or greater liquid equivalent snow/sleet paint medium probabilities (40-70%) across most of the region, with slightly lower amounts expected in northwest PA. The latest Winter Storm Outlook highlights a 30-50% chance of Warning criteria snowfall (5"+) in northeast PA, primarily east of US-15. GEFS and ECENS probabilities of 6"+ have trended up a bit also supporting the 30-50% probability in the Poconos, with an even higher likelihood up through coastal New England. If the current track/timing holds, watches may be needed in the next forecast cycle. At this time, though, a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet for most of the region. Guidance has remained consistent overall for snowfall amounts with the last two runs, however some uncertainty remains whether or not warm nosing above the surface could limit snow across the PA/MD border. If mixing is a problem for anywhere in Central PA, it would be for locations southeast of US-30 in York and Lancaster County. Continue to monitor the forecast in the days ahead, especially if you have plans to travel.

GEFS still the outlier with trough out west leading to much warmer conditions east & ridging. Bet snowman loves that

T-3” here? Lol

GFS cooled off pretty good and lost the double barrel thing. Looks decent

We'd probably get a solid storm if airmass was a little colder. Pretty nice track actually

medium.com LOOKING AT DEC 2025 — Why this Skeptic is excited and impressed if you like cold and snow across… https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftinyurl.com%2F4zz29cpf%3Ffbclid%3DIwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAYnJpZBExRHFKR3d5eWZkWFh4N3NIdXNydGMGYXBwX2lkEDIyMjAzOTE3ODgyMDA4OTIAAR64Db6hrzhHBqw9PcwAS_B5-GW7RMqvcBp4PPSaf-AqtHxDk-982emevvrHCA_aem_djIOIOJplYY6yNXOtcGdTQ%26brid%3D9LBgYp824EHizRWAjxURkQ&h=AT0MjW5gCTgagc5MCYFz7VyTgHLbtmZ_50_x1jSbjkzF32pa08tj9uY6yfnase-cUcozv7fbsLlJA9t1kSTZE7vtVx_F0NL7ExaSTxhPNQZqFyLIjTa4nqc3xLFgrC6zIwZHz5NXMM3Hmg&__tn__=-UK-R&c[0]=AT2bvekVPFHdsvbm9EJjV7o_uzJq5lokP7RefAaHUds3cVz5tyeljQcBcJiNXyqBfySk6YHBR6kkNbLGX2hmjhglyTWo1_Hk2bFacZEd-0GnZLWQeWJGCtGDsP3EjoGtbgx31K54epNRBnaBNtwdXcej2QxAtWv5Y2FSAWR0wjKrzTwwhBC8BLsgaItGmTVSgkgs2L_JpYRxX_8LB7nqKeBVItuTjQ

Rates could be wild for a bit if things break right.. 6z GEFS mean bumped up to 7 for here

Initial point and click of 6-8”, looks reasonable at upper bound. If we can just figure out NAM being out to lunch a decent starter storm will be at hand.

Heads up for early risers in the metros - looks like maybe a chance of some frozen / mixed precip until 8 am or so…

That’s a rather nice run.