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Looking at NWS thoughts on Philly, would think even if there was a changeover 4 to 5 would fall.

Yep, I like Lee a lot; here's his updated map (from 3-6" to 4-8" for most). Pretty consistent with the NWS...

A true PNA will basically always work for cold here. It means drier weather in our area but as Jeff has noted, below normal precip doesn't mean it's not good for snow. Above normal precip here usually means the warm flow from the Pac or Gulf is coming, and all the issues they cause.

Now, merge that with the 12z GEM...and we are in business!!!

GEFS follows suit, solid bump NE on the qpf.

Don’t love being in the “proverbial” bullseye but feel good for at least 4-5”+; Merry Christmas Eve all.

I think your outcome is mainly sleet and freezing rain bands with snow northeast of Baltimore possibly, but there is probably a one in ten chance this becomes your snowstorm at the last moment, the low is definitely going to have considerable energy from the high dew points it will encounter over the mid-section of the country, while right now it is just dealing with dry air masses over the Rockies (freezing fog in Miles City MT is about all it is producing so far). When it gets into Iowa and Illinois it will have a lot more moisture available and bands of sleet and freezing rain will develop around s WI and MI, then snow will develop over s ON and nw PA, w NY. If this turns hard right over w PA you could get a semi-surprise snowfall into DC and most of MD. Looking at all guidance the solutions are further apart than usual at 36h-48h lead time. But if I had to choose I think the GFS is probably nearest to reality at this point and its snow axis is ne PA to n/c NJ. Thundersleet around mid-day Friday is possible for s PA into ne MD.

I truly wonder if we can get a death band to set up shop over us and puke snow with 1-2"/hour rates. That could push us over 10".

We'll see over the next 12-24 but this may be the start of the 40 or so mile push NE I expected could happen, thats every 18z model minus the ICON more or less.

Sorry, we have been traveling for most of the day.... It has been very right for the 29-30th event...scored the coup. The 18z AIGFS has the Jan 1-2 cold front. The run-to-run for the 18z GFS is MUCH colder. Do I think it gets below zero without snow? Unlikely as the GEM is often too cold. But it ofter correctly sees cold fronts during winter when other models do not - just add back a few degrees for the cold bias. The 18z AIGFS is basically the 12z GEM but just not on steroids...one cold front after another.

Also ratios should be really good with this.. so won't need much qpf

Let's get one of those big bumps north at 0z like we usually get when SNE is in the jackpot zone then all of sudden its congrats NNE.. but this time it would be in our favor..

Next briefing from NWS is in 30 minutes at 6pm. Another interesting aspect is the Pinstripe bowl Saturday at noon. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Guessing storm slows moving in the eastbound and a piece drops down from the North / North-northeast.

Gov' t employees work their ass off with limited resources and barebones staffing. As a recently retired federal employee myself, if you want better models write your Congressional Members and tell them that NOAA needs more resources to develop better models. Don't disparage feds in this forum or you should be banned.

Any signs of a IVT with this setup? GFS has been hinting at it for a quite a few runs now.

Merry Christmas, All!

No, I'm loving it. Just pointing out that at this point rather small trends can have a huge impact.

CoastalWx favorite!

Always the case

Are you really complaining?

gotta be near the mixing line to get the best snow

really looking good for the metro’s first warning level snow in quite some time. we can see 1-2”/hr rates as FGEN pushes in during the evening, especially NW towards 287

Yeah we're running out of wiggle room with 48 hours yet to go

I will eat my hat if that starts happening, better chance of seeing the real Saint Nick tomorrow