All Activity

After not being much of a factor from 2019-24, looks like the N. Atlantic warm hole, a pool of relatively cooler water south of Greenland, is returning and should remain through peak hurricane season. This tends to ramp up the risk for E. Coast hurricanes, particularly slow-moving ones: https://x.com/yconsor/status/1925494559032668254

268Weather, an eastern Caribbean-based forecast service, has updated its hurricane season outlook: They are going for 21 TS, 9 hurricanes and 5 MH, with ACE expectation of 185. They indicate a 48% chance of ACE above 223 and a 52% chance of at least 11 hurricanes, each of which would place 2025 amongst the most active hurricane seasons on record. Seems odd that their baseline forecast for H is 9 and ACE is 185, yet there is around a 50% chance of ACE and hurricanes well above these numbers. If you look back at their track record, their May forecasts were considerably too high (bullish) in 2021 (ACE forecast 179), 2022 (175) and 2024 (218). On the other hand, their May 2017 forecast (ACE of 110) strongly underestimated activity. They were on the few seasonal forecasting agencies to catch onto slightly above normal activity (based on 1950-2020 normals) in 2018 and 2019. https://268weather.wordpress.com/2025/05/16/268weather-may-2025-update-atlantic-hurricane-season-still-projected-to-be-above-normal/

Levi Cowan (from Tropical Tidbits) raises significant skepticism about this report claiming AccuWeather forecasts were more accurate last year: https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1925320719732547804

i was told this morning in the gym, a guy i know his daughter is on the 10U town softball team and they have played only 4 games so far, the rest all rainouts

Well I'm a welder and I hate the heat. Bring on the cooler !!!

Nothing like bright banding on radar in late May. Definitely snow off the deck in wrn MA to Mitch right now.

That’s due to you being further north closer to NEPA. SEPA from around Philly into CNJ and SNJ has had less than half the rainfall that areas further north have had. This is why drought conditions closer to I-80 have improved with lingering drought further south. Plus Eastern Long Island has had more rainfall than Newark this month.

Accuweather/LRC >>> https://www.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Kantar-report-on-the-2024-Hurricane-Season.pptx-1.pdf

Wow HRRR and HREF are wet for today. There’s a signal for some flooding possibilities between Narragansett Bay and the western end of the Cape. Jeez…

I repointed part of the basement. Expecting as much as 4 inches of rain today. What a fun stress test. This has been a remarkably wet May. Ive been waiting and waiting to paint the house, and it will not get dry. It's going to wait till June at this rate.

@jconsor Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA on Thursday at 11 AM EDT #51 by jconsor » Thu May 22, 2025 7:17 am 268Weather, an eastern Caribbean-based forecast service, has updated its hurricane season outlook: They are going for 21 TS, 9 hurricanes and 5 MH, with ACE expectation of 185. They indicate a 48% chance of ACE above 223 and a 52% chance of at least 11 hurricanes, each of which would place 2025 amongst the most active hurricane seasons on record. Seems odd that their baseline forecast for H is 9 and ACE is 185, yet there is around a 50% chance of ACE and hurricanes well above these numbers. https://268weather.wordpress.com/ I'd trust this over the mainstream forecasts

Boy is it chilly. Wall of water on the doorstep. About to clean the pellet stove and fire it up.

Today’s weather song of the day.

Once we get out this cloudy cool pattern things will explode. We are nearing peak solar insulation which is what causes the best growth.

Does Brooklyn count? 0.16" here in Linden NJ for May 21st

Yep. Holes on water were scenic. (Tournament length) 200 yard par 3 over water 175 yard par 3 along water par 4 along water par 5 along water that required a 200+ carry over water driveable par 4 over water was coolest hole

You should be confident in nothing in May regarding how this upcoming winter will play out

Huh??? I've had 9.74" this month so far.

I hope we freeze in July!

China is a major net importer of fossil fuels. Should consider that. Look at consumption. China developing EV because they don’t have the oil/nat gas reserves to support their economy. Geology/geography; not altruism.

Only consolation is this all started to roll in yesterday instead of Friday. Would have wiped the 4 day— MDW. Today and tomorrow are worst and it’s a slow climb from there…

This is beautiful weather

nice drink overnight.

Just missed the Millersville record low maximum temperature yesterday. Record was 56, was 57 just after midnight. Today's record low max is a relatively balmy 60. Should have no problem breaking that one, unfortunately.

Unmitigated fury is upon us.