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It will be interesting to see how this plays out. During the 2016-2017 weak La Niña event, which collapsed in January, there was also a powerful WWB. Indeed, the SOI plunged to -33.54 on January 19th. It remains to be seen if that WWB will actually be rivaled, much less surpassed. The 2016-17 La Niña had two days in January where the SOI was -30 or below. No other La Niña event had even one. However, daily SOI values only go back to 1991. February 2017 was truly a "torch" in much of the eastern half of the U.S. I'm not expecting anything along those lines. But the idea that a cold or very cold outcome for February is a "slam dunk" following a powerful January WWB should it occur as modeled, is probably too simplistic. As noted above, 2016-17 saw the opposite outcome. A rapidly weakening La Niña would become less of a factor in influencing patterns. As that happens, other variables, many of which cannot be forecast at current lead times, will gain importance. This competition among variables could lead to large variability on a week-to-week basis. The changeable outcome on the extended range of the ECMWF weeklies may be offering an early hint of that variability. For now, at least based on past late-stage weak La Niña events, the best chances for monthly cold anomalies likely are the Plains States, Great Lakes Region, and eastward into the Northeast. Cold anomalies from the Southwest eastward through the Southeast would be far less likely.

Might get my wish in about a week.

I mentioned a few days ago we do a really good job of kicking the can. The other thing we seem to do well in the mid-south is whiff when the pieces of the puzzle on a large scale line up. We've at least gotten past kicking the can for the ridge of doom in the Aleutians. Now to see if we can buck the second thing we are good at between Jan 15 and 25th. I'm cautiously optimistic.

How’d the EPS/Ensembles look after mid month today?

37/34 here, snow and ice is mostly gone from paved surfaces

It would be our luck.

Yea i think it might be at least setting the table for a threat. Baby steps.

Lots of mid 40's temps in the SW part of CT. Still stuck at 37 here. Melting but was hoping for more.

GREAT MOMENTS IN "includes sleet"

Looking at 4Season’s data, maybe 9” was the most I had in 1 storm last season

61 at home, 75 in Dallas (work travel)

It's still early but I feel like it's probably time to punt the Jan 15 window. I guess if a storm perfectly bombed out at our latitude we could maybe get a paste bomb but its like 40 degrees in Montreal during the window. Not a good sign when the freezing line is north of the Adirondacks.

He's not yet. He just, in another tweet, basically was hinging that Greenland Blocking was why, lol. Of course, as we know, strong Greenland Blocking can mitigate even strong warm MJO effects. However, from Larry's research that is not what the reason was but, something to do with La nina and the location of it, if I remember correctly.

RIP

I still have the Craftsman if needed. Haven’t started it in a while though.

I think it could handle it, but would probably need to recharge/swap batteries several times. The auger part is very powerful.

Briefly hit 61.7° - now back down to 59.5°.

It’s funny because the name is somewhat original and makes sense from a DC point of view, but the brand appeal just isn’t there. Similar issue the Wizards have faced.

This season it was 7”. I don’t remember the individual events from last year. I always counted on KevinW’s databases (for the last several years at least) and that is gone now. I should have saved it. maybe 10-12” last season?

Yeah and would you have any reservations about it in a 3' March blue bomb like we got a few years ago?

Sun has finally popped a bit more the last hour or so. It’s gonna be difficult for me to work past 4 today.

The fog has really held down our temp this week. Yesterday, mid to upper 40s turned into 30s. Today, it's in the upper 50s in Ottumwa, but we are still in the upper 30s. It is finally sunny, but there is not enough time left to heat up too much.

generally 7 isn't the best phase, but I think it actually depends on the ENSO state. I think MJO 7-8-1 are better in Ninas, and MJO 8-1-2 are better in Ninos

It’s from cpc think it’s all. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

MJO 7 is a transition phase which is usually a precursor to our biggest storms (but not always of course).