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I will settle for this Image

Picked up 2.5" this am, over performer.

Yes, outside of my driveway (the unpaved half) my yard is not wet or spongy at all. Even 90% of my driveway has dried out so not overly concerned with the rain tomorrow.

Looks like one of these @Sey-Mour Snowhydro events?

Sun is winning here at the moment. Gonna be a fight all day but currently mostly cloudy and fair weather bright conditions…

Fair, but if we are talking social media isn't it more likely to be overhyped than under?

Morning storms looking fairly robust too. Saw some peeks of sun outside too

Short range guidance seems underwhelmed with high temps today.

This helicity setup shows this could be a repeat of the April 2011 for the Carolinas. Any spacing between the storms or break ups of the squall line could be a strong tornadic supercell or a few tornadic supercells with the right environment that would be for a long-track tornado or multiple tornadoes.

Is the nam actually doing something legit or is that just noise? I understand that we've been trending minorly better for NE IL again but

The issue is social media. SPC stuff gets posted and reposted pretty virally both with/and without explanations from whoever is posting it.

I'd argue the general public doesn't look at SPC at all, and most of them rely almost exclusively on weather apps if they even think about the forecast. A severe thunderstorm/tornado watch/warning day of is where 98% of the public that pays attention will tune in.

I think a good way to communicate to the public that these risks show is saying the SPC (severe weather prediction center) have put us in a risk level of 4/5. This risk is reserved for 2-5 times a decade usage in our area. It sounds a lot more threatening than "we're in a moderate risk from the SPC"

12z hrrr has a few cells west of dc that push ne into Maryland then kinda merge with the line.

Hard pass on a 16+hr drive to chase linear mode low topped thunderstorms with fast moving embedded tornadoes. If you even see one you're probably too close. But take the drive out if it and of course

CIG categories will also be helpful in differentiating QLCS spinups from tornado producing supercell threats. I believe this will also be helpful for tornado threats associated with tropical systems.

I think SPC in general (probably more a discussion for the general severe thread) is not geared well towards public consumption. A person sees "slight risk" and doesn't take the threat seriously. Or they see "10% tornado" and are like big deal. We as weather weenies know how to evaluate this - but average Joe is not now, or in the past going to fundamentally understand SPC outlook categories or percentages. Some of the switch to "level X out of X" has helped - but hasn't eliminated the issue.

March 15 1941: The 'Ides of March Blizzard' occurs. Winds reached hurricane force at Twin Cities. 32 people died. For Sunday, March 15, 2026 1941 - The most severe blizzard in modern history struck North Dakota and Minnesota. The blizzard hit on a Saturday night while many are traveling, and thus claimed 71 lives. Winds gusted to 75 mph at Duluth MN, and reached 85 mph at Grand Forks ND. Snow drifts twelve feet high were reported in north central Minnesota. A cold front traveling 30 mph crossed Minnesota in just seven hours. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A winter storm in the western U.S. produced heavy snow in central Nevada, with 23 inches reported at Austin. High winds raked the desert areas of southern California and southern Arizona. Winds gusted to 59 mph at Douglas AZ. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - More than one hundred hours of continuous snow finally came to an end at Marquette MI, during which time the city was buried under 43 inches of snow. Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S., with forty-one cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from Alabama to the Middle Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 at Virginia Beach VA. Low pressure in southeastern Ontario produced high winds in the northeastern U.S. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Saint Albins VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Low pressure crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley produced high winds from the Northern and Central Plains to the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley. Winds gusted to 73 mph at Iowa City IA, and wind gusts reached 79 mph at Waukesha WI. Winds of 75 mph were reported around Rapid City SD, with gusts to 100 mph. Up to a foot of snow was reported in western Iowa, western Minnesota, and extreme eastern North Dakota. Blizzard conditions were reported in northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

I feel that the CIG categories could be confusing to the general public but I also feel the old lower probabilities weren’t too helpful to the general public either. Especially before enhanced/marginal were introduced. I do think the higher probabilities gets the word out better for borderline severe/sub severe squall lines and line segments that produce widespread winds.

Yeah this has serious potential down that way tomorrow. I imagine the power outages are going to be quite high

Cross posting in here for @Mrs.J

3/15 Sunrise: 7:08AM Sunset: 7:03 PM Daylight: 11H: 55M Gained 2H15M from the winter lull Roughly Equivalent to Sep 27th Gaining a annual max of 2:43 seconds now and through the next week. First 12 hour day on March 17 1th

If you had the time that would be a decent road trip.

Nudged just above 32 here as a line of thunderstorms is about to move through. Will be curious to see what kind of precip they have