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With the way you’re wording this, it seems to me like there’s double counting of sorts between the warming from GW, itself, and El Niño.

Sucks the strongest shear lags behind the front Friday. but with large CAPE/a bit of an EML we could still pull off some big storms, its just they would be more pulse type and may not be organized

Probability of quintile range 0.0 <= x < 20% for 2 metre temperature probability

Speaking of the NAM grid.... woof. Thickness 572 to 575, first time this season basically sets in now, out thru 60 hours. 850's look like 15C. Lot of a cloud production tho so that probably limits it's already tendency for 2-meter temp retardation a bit. 30C at 980mb in NYC on Thursday tho would probably be 96 in EWR

We're definitely overdue a strong la nina. The last time we had 2 robust el ninos back-to-back was the series that began with the 82-83 super el nino (when we had 3 in a decade). After the 2nd el nino (86-88) followed a strong la nina (88-89). I have a feeling that we're going to have a strong la nina after this strong/super el nino event. 82-83: super el nino => 23-24: strong el nino 83-86: -ENSO event => 24-26: -ENSO event 86-88: strong el nino => 26-27 (or 26-28): robust el nino 88-89: strong la nina => 27-28 (or 28-29): strong la nina???

The Kiowa Vortex Generator strikes again.

We got 0.03" rain.

What in the sam hell am I trying to interpret here

Another top 5 day out there today

I am not against, nor a fan of Judah Cohen's contributions ... I realize there's been some banter in here that's ranged from flattery to ... not so flattering opinions of the guy - I'm not part of that one way or the other. Having defined that ... I don't have a problem at all with his surmise/intimation there that it bears some semblance to last winter. I said almost exactly that to Brian in a post yesterday or the day before. Whether it ends up "comfortable" like he suggests is different combinations of metric than just temp though. He needs to be careful there ... or at least, the readers/consumers need to be aware. If it ends up normal temperatures ... that doesn't automatically intimate lower DPs to me. Not at this time of year - nor particularly to what the general synoptic trends look like out there. Particularly, if the transient trough in the Lakes starts to retrograde like the 00z ens clusters all agreed it would do... that means it is challenged to really make it COC -like. It would be more vaginal I guess... heh ( puerile humor ). It's a new-ish signal but the neg anomalies associated move back toward the S/W continent just beyond next week. For a real air cleansing... the trough needs to go the other way ... opening up and progressing E.

Pleezy weezy with sugar on top let's see that happen. ha

Comfortable is good.

Wish we could get one of the universities to run it...at least the 3k. But it would be a bad look for NCEP if everyone started flocking to Ewall or SUNY to see every NAM run while Rufus has more tumbleweeds than views. I think they've made their bed and they'll have to lie in it either way. At least they were smart enough to wait until the end of met summer/severe wx season before ending it. I wish more free models sites had the RRFS data. I like COD and Tidbits for quick and easy viewing. I get a little lost on what I'm clicking at Pivotal sometimes.

Early data in for May. Cooler one this year, but a warmer Spring overall. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

I love when climate zealots simply eliminate stations they deem absurd....LOL!

I mean aren’t mid latitude ridges expanding due to global warming regardless? The SE ridge is also getting stronger and more expansive despite La Nina’s being weaker on the absolute ONI scale…so I do not know if this is exclusive to RONI vs ONI.

I agree with most of what you just said. But I have a partial disagreement with you on what constitutes a sensible mid latitude response. The response has two components. The first is the strength of the 500mb ridge across Canada and the Northern Tier of the CONUS. During the 2023-2024 super El Niño this ridge was more expansive than the 1997-1998 super El Niño pressing further south toward the mid-Atlantic and enhancing the warmth. So this wasn’t reflected in the RONI only peaking at 1.5. But the RONI was more representative of the weaker Aleutian low and Mid-Atlantic to Southeast low. We can also see the RONI inconsistency with the 2015-2016 super El Niño in another way. While it was better matched with the ONI than 2023-2024, the Aleutian low was still much weaker than 1997-1998. Plus the rainfall response was much less in places like CA along with more of a ridge in the Eastern CONUS than past super El Niños.

51 in Muttontown & 54 in Syosset this morning.

Down to 54. Surprised we didn’t drop more

Temperatures today will be close to average for the date with highs well into the 70's to near 80 degrees. We start a warming trend tomorrow with the peak hot day being on Friday which is the only day that higher elevations have a shot a 90 degrees. Most valley spots should reach the 90's Thursday and Friday including higher humidity. While we will cool by a few degrees over the weekend it will remain hot until Monday when temperatures will fall back toward the middle 80's. We have shower chances tomorrow morning and again both Thursday and Friday afternoon.

Temperatures today will be close to average for the date with highs well into the 70's to near 80 degrees. We start a warming trend tomorrow with the peak hot day being on Friday which is the only day that higher elevations have a shot a 90 degrees. Most valley spots should reach the 90's Thursday and Friday including higher humidity. While we will cool by a few degrees over the weekend it will remain hot until Monday when temperatures will fall back toward the middle 80's. We have shower chances tomorrow morning and again both Thursday and Friday afternoon.

I realize the NAM is a dead dog model ... ...are they going to continue running it in parallel for awhile after the fact? Is there going to be gridded data sources from whatever meso madness they're going to, similar to FOUS? May be a Q/A for NWS personnel ... if there's anyone still actually working at NWS since we've gon' and made 'merica all great and all

Starting tonight into tomorrow for my area.

that would be cool

Ji's already looking at 2027-2028.