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Heat dome!

While yesterdays first 2 rounds during the so called severe threat produced less than a quarter inch of rain. Rounds 3 and 4 of just plain rain between 9 and midnight delivered pushing my total to 1.16. A much needed drink for the lawns

Morrissey boulevard of the South Coast.

0.96” in Muttontown & 0.94” in Syosset with rain popping on radar.

Raleigh will put in place level 2 water restrictions once Falls Lake drops to 45% full. According to the graphs at the following link, that happens between 241 and 242 feet. The current forecast suggests that would happen in September but that is basically extrapolation. https://epec.saw.usace.army.mil/falls_summ.htm

.10" of rain yesterday. Nothing at home when I left for work, steady rain falling here in Conestoga.

Very tragic. Unfortunately, there will almost certainly be many more fatalities across Europe as the heat dome expands.

0.09

Yeah, these seasonal models are more or less just defaulting to ENSO correlations depending on the state ENSO is in at the time. So they really aren’t forecasts in the traditional sense. This is why none of the seasonal forecasts issued relying on them came close to the magnitude of the warmth experienced since December 2015. The common denominator to all the forecasts is that the ridge was magnitudes stronger than the original forecasts and the trough areas were generally weaker. None of these records were forecast beyond a week or two before they actually occurred. These extremes used to be very rare before December 2015 during months like March 2012 or January 2006. This is not getting very much attention since we have tended to normalize all the warmth. Plus record warmth during the winter doesn’t generate as much attention as the periods of extreme cold which have become few and far between. The last -10 month in the Northeast during February 2015 got much more attention than most of the +10 months since then have. I chalk this up to human nature which was conditioned to fear cold from thousands of years back to the ice ages which made survival so difficult. This is why so much of the population had moved to the sun belt areas. Back in the 1970s when -10 months were much more common, all the talk was about an impending return of another ice age. So imagine how much attention the 17 months below would be getting if they were all -10s instead of +10s. The super El Niño in 2015-2016 had 2 months go 10+ from December to March with 2023-2024 also having 2 months reach this mark. None of those months like the others were forecast from the long range seasonal guidance. It would be very challenging for any seasonal forecast to pick out the specific month and geographic location this coming 2026-2027 super El Niño that would potentially experience one of these extremes. Forecasters just don’t feel comfortable including +10s to their seasonal forecast maps. We seldom see much beyond a +1 to +3 area and sometimes up to +5. DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3 MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3 DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1 JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2 FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3 MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

Wait, that seems like a decent dose/time there. which way is your sarcasm pointing ? 1.3" for the 2-day total here. Looks on rad like we're about to go languid mist from here on out N-W of ORH-BOS. Might clear at 5 o'clock ? The NAM nailed this thing from about 30 hours out. The Globals might have been a little rich on QPF? not totally sure there. General audience: Ensembles look very close to a major heat headline-able event from ~ D8+ thru model fuzziness. This was a vague signal some 10 days ago, way out along the emergent modeling horizon. It has since been inconsistently showing up and fading ... something like a 1.3 steps ahead by 1.10 steps back... but slowly gaining coherence. This overnight looks 70-ish percent confidence for a N/A mid latitude heat dome with less certainty whether it gets in here. If so, it would be over the top - the ridge axis being 90-ish W instructs the NW delivery. Which looks plausible in the ensemble means of the EPS/GEFS and GEP. The GEPs in fact looked quite fantastic/best for purer heat delivery around D9, as it was an over top delivery that then morphs into this, So the uncertainty with all this is the operational versions are being cute with convective shrapnel if not meso-beta scale synoptic waves ejecting out of the trough in the west, racing over the ridge top and probably sending outflow this and general warmth denting that, and seeing as we're at the eastern fragile end of that wave-space/curvature field, I'd go ahead a call that the operational models engineering any means plausible to physics to stop a heat wave signal from actually taking place LOL. seems like that some times. Here are the EPS/GEFs ensembles in the meantime, for D9-ish

The Apr-June of ‘26 MJO has been about the most left-sided of any Apr-June since records started in 1975: 2026: Closest years were: 2021: 1991:

2.52" yesterday 5.18" MTD 16.30" since 4/1

0.08" yesterday. Light rain moving in, hoping to shatter the 0.10" barrier. 68F/DP 67F

We got DRIZZLE in CLT! DRIZZLE I tell ya, almost got my car wet.

Yeah I'm thinking about a tenth to maybe a quarter inch more at most. But at least we did well yesterday

Wonder if the beachcomber washes away again

Correction, misread the station 3.04" since midnight 3.39" storm total

69F/DP 68F/light rain

I received less than a 10th of an inch. If you look at the precip accumulation map, there is a narrow strip of very little rain along south mountain from Easton all the way to Fleetwood in Berks County.

ouch.....

That blob looks way more impressive on LWX radar than others. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-0-6

another downpour moving in..should eclipse 3" soon. max rainfall rate reached 5.88" in/hr on ambient

Spectacular if you’re on the beach with a pool taking in the sunsets gulf side and watching the lightning and hearing distant thunder from the daily boomers occurring inland. Pure summer.

40 drownings last few days as folks try to beat the heat

This guy is a clown. lol.