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"Snow and sleet before 1pm, then freezing rain and sleet. The sleet could be heavy at times. High near 25. Chance of precipitation is 100%." I don't think I've ever seen a "heavy sleet" point forecast before. Lovely.

I agree. I remember the huge snow mounds in the city after the 3/14/17 storm even though a huge amount was sleet. Sleet has a disproportionately high impact for how much of it falls-1” of sleet is the same water content as 3-4” of snow and it tends to stick around a lot longer. I’d rather it snow all things considered but anyone who wants deep long lasting snowpack shouldn’t complain about some sleet thrown in after a big thump of snow.

That's the most likely scenario unfortunately

should be here in a hour and a half or so.. newest frames are even better

Love that blob hanging over my head

Real feel Euro for next Thursday. @Matthew70, this is what we don't want, right? -40 real feels in the Apps. -10s to -20s in the valleys.

Yeah, I don't really view this as the mean going down. I mean, I guess it obviously did (lol), but I'm just seeing this as our goalposts appropriately narrowing.

Stopping by to say good luck to all and hope you’re all digging out for days! Former Wmsptwx lol

I know using the internet is tough for an old man like yourself but you can use google to do the conversion for you

Saw this in March 2018(?) where the gfs was all snow from a coastal but the NAM continually showed a warm tongue going all the way back to York County. We all just shrugged it off as the hi res nam over forecasting the warm tongue. It was correct and actually not aggressive enough with that feature. Iirc, the gfs never even caved to the nam, it just stubbornly bombed that storm forecast.

If it makes it across

Why is there event total 1 am Sunday to 7 pm Sunday... that isn't even the total event? Or am I missing something

Too low

Ty sir.

I was going to go back and look, but it seems like the little storm we had last Jan, ran a low into the foot of the apps. Killed the mid-levels quickly.

Only through 7pm Sunday fyi

I wonder if they expect a south tick given the highest amounts are in the southern zones? NVM I realize this is only through 7 PM Sunday.

So is euro trending slowly to the gfs idea? Guess time will only tell now.

For Baltimore at this point I'm thinking a floor of 6" and a ceiling of 10" based on the recent runs.

I haven't checked Steve's friend's (hurricant hunter source) update for today...but more should be gathered today. I definitely thought of that. My guess is that Arctic air mass is finally out of the information void above the Arctic Circle.

Eh ZR is coming the question is how much

I hope we don't get 6-8" of snow with 2" of sleet on top. With temps as cold as they are that'll create a giant skating rink with horrendous plowing & travel conditions. That's far worse impact wise than a pure 12-15" snowstorm

Unlike Joe, I do think Chicago cashes in, but more than like by means of lake effect.

And not to nitpick but goddammit after all these years we still have to reference things in zulu time. I HATE converting to EST. C'mon @MN Transplant hook a brother up and just do AM/PM for the dumb people. Like....me

Starts in Western NC early afternoon on Saturday and should spread across the state as the night goes on. Goes through out the day Sunday and ends later Sunday evening/night. As many folks have mentioned it could start several hours earlier than expected on Sat.