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Thats what I was envisioning. Either side of 80 with dews in 50’s. Very much like tomorrow. Same kind of setup despite a few wild folks buying the ops

First time catching a Wilson Warbirds game, and of course, during the third at bat, torrential rain, with lightning and thunder. Only 0.03 at the house.

Figured id bring the ENSO thread back up after hibernation for 2 years,The DMI the last couple weeks has been getting stronger,it should mainly stay this way it is until late fall when it peaks in a more or less strong NINO, The MJO as we head towards the next several days seemingly is getting nothing but destructive interference from a Kelvin Wave,should seemingly go back into the WP shortly after but it could also warm the east up again from a downwelling Kelvin Wave. The east has some subsurface temps around 100W OF 8C,these temps dont dont peak out until fall into winter,NINO of 1982-83 had the highest temp anoms in the subsurface,so i guess it has a chance to surpass that,who knows right now

I agree with that take but wonder how it would go without a change into cross polar flow. When we rely on home grown cold it might be different.

Quite a storm in Philly today. Saw some reports of a possible tornado in West Philly and wouldn't be shocked based on the damage I saw driving through West Fairmount Park. Severe tree damage, power was out and several spots were under a foot of water

Probably COC this time of year unless it gets more south for self destruction.

Not the case several times in recent winters- although most of those were Ninas. Jan 2022 is a perfect example(my storm.) We were in shut(shit) the blinds mode with no apparent end in sight and 10 days or so later there was a major snowstorm across much of the area, and it stayed pretty cold and snowed another time or 2.

Everything falls apart when it sees the LV it seems the past few days. Maybe there is an invisible dome we can't see.

Do you think the setup would still work with climate change? I ask as typically when our pattern is shit it takes a good while to ever get cold again.

97 in the point Monday.

GEFS/ EPS

This seems to concur.

Swing and a miss for Raleigh this afternoon. Always fun to see storms die on approach and blow up again to the east.

Another yard refresh, 0.09” brings MTD to 4.72”

H5 went from shit to sugar over about 10 days leading up.

And another hot and humid day. High of 96.

What are the chances this goes to 5 C? not an expert on this...

Missed it all again today.

Are you referring to the cold low in Quebec? ECMWF at 90 hr shows the same as the GFS in terms of depth.

A nice classic gusty summertime storm just went through here and dropped close to a half inch. No lightning though.

0.0

Ensembles which should only be used at this lead time are nothing like that

Up in Harford county at a baseball game and getting stormed. Not too munch thunder or wind. That outflow produced more wind

Ended up with 0.14" where the heaviest hit SW of me. I have 3.95" for the month so far, so it was not a desperate need for now. Currently overcast and 77 with dp 73. Heard someone on Accuwx earlier today mention triple digits again for later next week .

I hope you’re trolling. Otherwise you’re just mentally challenged if you can’t realize the destruction a +5°c super nino would have on the planet, unless if you’re cool with widespread crop failures, ecosystem damage, major economic destruction, lives being lost etc.