All Activity

Yep, I was up there Saturday and Sunday, and it was cool and crisp. Looks like all sub-75 days except for one outlier.

My low this morning was 54.

I've been planning on reseeding a couple areas for the last 3 yrs and I don't trust using the well to do it, so looks like another pass this year on doing it.

Nice morning out.

It’s not even summer. Just boredom.

50 degrees this morning. I think my hummingbirds are gone for the year. Haven’t seen them in a couple days.

Low of 53 in Marysville.

Endless summer is upon us

The subsurface warmth is really off the charts.

Mike Masco THE EARLY WINTER MODEL SIGNALS ARE GETTING VERY INTERESTING... I know, I know... WAY too early! But we've reached the point in the forecast calendar where I start looking at the broader trends in the CFSv2 to see what type of atmospheric configuration the models are beginning to latch onto. This is NOT the time to start predicting snowfall totals or declaring the winter warm or cold. Instead, I'm watching three major players at the 500mb and 1000mb levels that could eventually shape how this winter unfolds: GREENLAND BLOCKING — OR LACK THEREOF Where does blocking develop, and is it focused west or east of Greenland? This is one of the biggest variables for the East Coast. A favorable blocking pattern can slow storms near the coast while helping cold Canadian air press south. This signal often isn't fully realized until we're already entering or exiting a blocking cycle, and its impact will be closely tied to the strength and behavior of the Polar Vortex. This becomes especially important from late December through mid-February. THE ALEUTIAN / NORTH PACIFIC PATTERN I'm watching whether the height field near the Aleutian Islands trends stronger or weaker. This signal should become much clearer by late November and can have major implications for how much Pacific air floods into the country. A stronger Pacific influence could overwhelm the northern half of the U.S. with milder-than-normal air — something I'll be watching VERY closely. THE SUBTROPICAL JET — THE BIG ONE So far, this has been the most compelling signal and exactly the type of feature you'd expect during an El Niño winter. You can have all the cold air in the world, but you can't get a snowstorm without moisture. A juiced-up subtropical jet could provide plenty of storm opportunities this winter. Right now, I think this is the major wildcard for producing some BIG storms, potentially favoring the Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania, with the strongest signal across the southern U.S. The million-dollar question for the Northeast: Can the cold air meet the moisture at the right time? That's where Greenland blocking, the Polar Vortex and the Canadian pattern become incredibly important. Again — this is NOT a winter forecast. It's an early look at the atmospheric players I'm watching as the pieces slowly begin to come together. Plenty will change between now and December... but the early signals are certainly worth watching.

Mike Masco THE EARLY WINTER MODEL SIGNALS ARE GETTING VERY INTERESTING... I know, I know... WAY too early! But we've reached the point in the forecast calendar where I start looking at the broader trends in the CFSv2 to see what type of atmospheric configuration the models are beginning to latch onto. This is NOT the time to start predicting snowfall totals or declaring the winter warm or cold. Instead, I'm watching three major players at the 500mb and 1000mb levels that could eventually shape how this winter unfolds: GREENLAND BLOCKING — OR LACK THEREOF Where does blocking develop, and is it focused west or east of Greenland? This is one of the biggest variables for the East Coast. A favorable blocking pattern can slow storms near the coast while helping cold Canadian air press south. This signal often isn't fully realized until we're already entering or exiting a blocking cycle, and its impact will be closely tied to the strength and behavior of the Polar Vortex. This becomes especially important from late December through mid-February. THE ALEUTIAN / NORTH PACIFIC PATTERN I'm watching whether the height field near the Aleutian Islands trends stronger or weaker. This signal should become much clearer by late November and can have major implications for how much Pacific air floods into the country. A stronger Pacific influence could overwhelm the northern half of the U.S. with milder-than-normal air — something I'll be watching VERY closely. THE SUBTROPICAL JET — THE BIG ONE So far, this has been the most compelling signal and exactly the type of feature you'd expect during an El Niño winter. You can have all the cold air in the world, but you can't get a snowstorm without moisture. A juiced-up subtropical jet could provide plenty of storm opportunities this winter. Right now, I think this is the major wildcard for producing some BIG storms, potentially favoring the Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania, with the strongest signal across the southern U.S. The million-dollar question for the Northeast: Can the cold air meet the moisture at the right time? That's where Greenland blocking, the Polar Vortex and the Canadian pattern become incredibly important. Again — this is NOT a winter forecast. It's an early look at the atmospheric players I'm watching as the pieces slowly begin to come together. Plenty will change between now and December... but the early signals are certainly worth watching.

Warm, boredom, and stein as far as the eye can see. So much for redoing lawn this month. El Paso climate continues.

Seems like right after labor Day Summer disappears quickly, until then:

49 this morning with some fog.

55 when I left the house. Love this time of year.

53/51 this "septorcher" morn'

First HDD since the beginning of June. And so It begins.

That's only the first 6 days of a 30-day month. It obviously didn't hold on to August's heat long enough. However, the changes are coming. Here are the 3 ensemble temp anomaly averages for the 5 days ending the 22nd/23rd of September. Needless to say, there's another 7 days in the month beyond this period to go into the mix. That's not to say the forecast will verify, because it may not. But I don't think using the first 6 days of the month for verification is predictive for a month.

A tad chilly out this morning!