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Posted this in the old thread but its dead. Impressive straight-line wind damage the Tuesday night south of me. Apparently a tractor trailer was overturned as well.

The 12z Euro came in looking like the GFS, or even hotter, for the lower elevations. 100+ for Nash, Knox, and Chattanooga next Saturday on it. The AI is still more in the low to mid 90s camp.

18z NAM says it's raining at my house right now....news to me

It also looks great to me compared to earlier runs.

Time for a new server here. This is ridiculous.

Why is this drought just so damn persistent? What will it take to establish a rain pattern?

Minor shift on the NAM

Lot of the moisture on Saturday now looking mostly south for the majority of us according to the GFS and NAM. Upton still calling for mostly a washout. I wouldn’t complain about the models being right lol.

Don't recall ever seeing these types of high temps for a large area of NC from any model output in some time. The foothills in triple digits are rather remarkable and temps in central VA as well. If this was to hold, one might expect the all-time record high 81 F for Mt. Mitchell could be challenged on the GFS. Grandfather's all-time record high of 83 may be in reach. Of interest is some remarkable heat waves ----Historic Heat Waves in the Carolinas

Furniture factory. Thing probably torched up in minutes. May as well been a lumber yard or firework warehouse... 82F/DP 60F

18z 3k NAM looks great to me

A really interesting statistic for the entire USA which exactly mirrors the data I share here from the philly burbs of Chester County. This below analysis measures not the typical metric of 90+ days but unusual hot periods of at least 4 days on average across the entire country where the average temperature reaches a level based on historical records that would be expected to only occur once every 10 years. Look how much hotter the entire nation was back in 1930's and 1940's compared to today! No matter how much we hear about how hot it is today we have still not reached that peak heating from the 1930 through 1942 period which matches the hottest period here in Chester County PA.

A really interesting statistic for the entire USA which exactly mirrors the data I share here from the philly burbs of Chester County. This below analysis measures not the typical metric of 90+ days but unusual hot periods of at least 4 days on average across the entire country where the average temperature reaches a level based on historical records that would be expected to only occur once every 10 years. Look how much hotter the entire nation was back in 1930's and 1940's compared to today! No matter how much we hear about how hot it is today we have still not reached that peak heating from the 1930 through 1942 period which matches the hottest period here in Chester County PA.

Yeah, toss that. Definitely some low 90s for a few days though.

I've had the same thing

A really interesting statistic for the entire USA which exactly mirrors the data I share here from Chester County. This below analysis measures not the typical metric of 90+ days but unusual hot periods of at least 4 days on average across the entire country where the average temperature reaches a level based on historical records that would be expected to only occur once every 10 years. Look how much hotter the entire nation was back in 1930's and 1940's compared to today! No matter how much we hear about how hot it is today we have still not reached that peak heating from the 1930 through 1942 period which matches the hottest period here in Chester County PA.

Models just about all lame/south. Maybe we get a slight bump north but at this range we need a sizeable shift. Probably a 0.2-0.4" deal, could just be a few showers that don't even wet underneath the trees.

Yup. 18z NAM is rather dry. A narrow stripe of 1" - 2" along I-66, while just about everyone else gets less than half an inch.

Worse than Joe Namath on MNF

18z NAM shifts qp south thru Sunday. WPC camps out front near Winchester thru Sat morning then crawling south .

2015-16 is exactly the kind of pattern id gamble with if forced to have a strong nino. I had largely filed that winter in the unforgettable camp, especially with the hangover from 2013-15, but after looking at it further, there were lots of winter storms in the region from late November to early April (sans December). While snowfall finished near to slightly below avg in far southern MI it jumped to above to well above avg snow in south-central MI. The caveat applies that no winters are identical, but the storminess is key, as opposed to drier ninos.

This site is struggling right now.

The 12z GFS for Juy 4th:

By the way my, site very slow for 2 days. Keep getting upload errors...