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The 12z Euro and GFS actually upped the ante with the placement and strength of the 500 mb ridge. A stout 594dm ridge from the OH/KY border to Cape Hatteras. If that holds it's a legit setup for heat. Hope it holds, we haven't had a good heat wave in years!

Ended up with a few minutes of drizzle. Looks like we picked a good week to head to Cape Cod to do an outdoor event by the beach.

12z Euro apparently left the oven on for Thursday to Saturday looking a 2mT Thursday 2pm 2mT Friday 2pm 2mT Saturday 2pm 2mT

Fourth of July weekend looks kind of like crap

We need a write up on what went wrong

And nothing more, calling out people here requires more substance. Seems to me you had no way to prove me wrong at the time and opted for a dig. Quite petty.

I have a 'rating', but I'll keep it to myself.

Breathing fire, eh? Extreme, unprecedented hyperbole warning!

I guess we DO have weird squabbles outside of winter........sad.

Toasty... 226pm ZFP for DC metro WEDNESDAY...Sunny, hot with highs in the upper 90s. Heat index values up to 110. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 70s. .THURSDAY...Sunny, hot with highs 100 to 105. Heat index values up to 115. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 80. .FRIDAY...Sunny, hot with highs 100 to 105. Heat index values up to 110.

What in the world is going on in here...? @JenkinsJinkies - Take this stuff to banter. It is pretty obvious to see reading through this thread as an uninvolved third-party who is/was the aggressor. We are all here for the enjoyment of weather. Calm down and just take the L. It's okay to have a difference of opinion - it's how you act that matters. Quit while you're ahead - you're flirting with child-like temper tantrum territory... Nobody wants to open this thread to you having some weird argument in public. Get a room.

Cell just popped over me with boundary that passed north and blew east over I 395

@Eskimo Joe already calling for extreme heat risk by LWX in this afternoon AFD KEY MESSAGE 2...Significant heat risk next week heading into the Independence Day holiday. Increased confidence for a prolonged period of extreme heat and humidity starting Tuesday, June 30th and lasting through the Independence Day July 4th holiday weekend. Synoptically, subtropical high pressure and a building upper-level ridge will allow temperatures and humidity values to climb toward record levels over a multi-day period mid to late next week. Temperatures start to climb Tuesday as the upper-level ridge expands eastward from the Ohio River Valley. Look for highs in the 90s with heat indices running between 95-100 degrees. Wednesday through Sunday will be the peak of the dangerous heat with highs for most in the upper 90s and lower 100s. Heat indices each afternoon will run between 102-108 degrees with a few readings around 110 along the immediate I-95 metro corridor, western shore of the bay/southern MD, and down across the VA Piedmont region. Minimal relief is expected across the mountains with highs in the mid 80s and low 90s and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s as the heat peaks mid to late week. No relief at night either with widespread lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s (upper 70s-80 urban areas) Wednesday through Saturday. With that said, looking at major to extreme heat risk across the region during this period. Heat headlines will likely be needed and evaluated as the event gets closer. More at weather.gov/lwx/heat. Model guidance (00z, 06z, and 12z) has come into better alignment in regards to temperatures next week with only a few degrees of spread. On the other side of the spectrum, some uncertainty remains in regards to storm chances given the placement of boundaries and any waves of low pressure that may clear away the heat. The ridge looks to sit just west of the region if not overhead Tuesday before shunting eastward late week into the weekend. This would keep storm chances suppressed across most of the region outside of the mountains Tuesday through Thursday given the lack of any real forcing mechanisms outside the terrain or perhaps bay/river breezes. This changes Thursday through the weekend where storm chances may be amplified given a few pieces of energy pivoting over the top of the upper-level ridge in west to northwest flow. With excessive heat and humidity there will be plenty of instability to work with. You combine this with any potential ripples of low pressure moving around the ridge or a bay/river breeze to get convective development. This is illustrated by CSU/CIPS/NSSL (15-40 percent probabilities) outlooks along with Google WxNext AI model which suggest the risk for severe weather during the Thursday July 2nd to Saturday July 4th timeframe. Something we`ll continue to monitor in subsequent forecast shifts given all the ongoing outdoor activities across the region. Historically, near record summer heat often ends with widespread strong thunderstorm activity, and latest guidance starts to break down the heat next weekend (July 4) into early next week.

lol that was a dig at you. There's something lacking when a poster is known only for applying excessive weenie emotes. I did suggest maybe try harder to become more productive. Again, carry on.

06z Euro has afternoon air temperatures of 100 degrees for even the mountains. Even the 12z GFS lights everyone up. Impressive, but we're still a day or two out before this gets into the short range.

It's a SW ejection, yup. Sonoran or New Mexico, just labeling but by convention this is a SW Heat Release ... you can trace the air mass back and see that. I can see why the Euro has some convection overnight, Wed night, because there's undoubtedly a bit of (thus) EML over top.

was this a Sonoran release ... huh

Jesus, the 850s are 23 to 25C on the Euro too. wtf

Another .3" here on Thursday.

What we need is the designation of basin wide east based Nino. lol

Thu is hot on it too. Hopefully they didn’t ruin 2m on that model too. 850s are torched.

So, the Euro has 3 consecutive days of 98-103F from interior NJ to SE NH, Thu-Sat. It's interesting that the GFS goes full tilt on Wed, then backs off from there on out, whereas the Euro maxes later. I dunno. I'm with Brian on those crazier numbers on Wednesday. I see that this synoptically/circumstantially will be quite hot, but I think it plays a bit into the GFS tall BL tendency - maybe giving us a false sort of synergy there. If we're still hitting these number in the guidance tomorrow, we'll see.

Thankful for the storm that just passed. Just 0.12” but felt like a normal summer afternoon with a few claps of thunder and temps back down to 80. Humidity cometh

Heavy popup over me just started!