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Track seems further SE than other models... Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk

6z not reduced much....

Its struggling. Less snow than the last run.

Brooklyn

00z HREF. Sum the two to get your total:

Lol. You just can't stop can you? What is wrong with you? The 2 major metro areas, Baltimore and DC, went from 12.9" to 8.3" and 9.1" to 6.7" respectively. That's not cherry picking.

RGEM not as crazy as I thought it could have been but that was jet fuel at 500mb.

2+ feet at 10:1 will work

Its game time! Flakes start flying in the next 4-6 hours. The goods get here around 4-6pm

Snip of the 320 LWX AFD... As of 315am, light snow has been observed over the Alleghenies with light to moderate pockets of shower/drizzle over the Shenandoah Valley. Elsewhere, cloud cover continues to increase with some virga as the atmospheric profile begins to moisten with large scale ascent ahead of the approaching upper level trough. Precipitation should begin as a mixture of light rain and snow for most, with all snow above around 1500 feet. Expect precipitation to remain relatively light through mid to late morning then turning steadier later this afternoon as the main lift from the trough/coastal low move overhead. Surface temperatures will initially be in the mid to upper 30s at lower elevations, and should hold in the mid 30s through mid-late afternoon (prior to 6pm). As a result, much of the region will experience several hours of mixed rain and snow "white rain" that won`t accumulate and will largely be unimpactful other than making for wet roads. However, snow will accumulate across the higher elevations (i.e Catoctins, Alleghenies, and crest of the Blue Ridge) above 1500 feet throughout the day. Temperatures will gradually fall later this afternoon and evening as dynamical cooling ensue from the approaching coastal low and upper level trough. The large scale ascent from these features will allow the atmospheric column to cool allowing for the rain/snow mix to transition over to all snow across the forecast region. Temperatures will fall from the mid 30s into the upper 20s and low 30s during this time as the heaviest precipitation moves in Ratios will also climb during this time with 1:1-5:1 ratios outside of the elevations above 1500 feet during the day climbing to 8:1 to 13:1 overnight into Monday morning. Either way expect a wet character to the snow given the high liquid equivalent. This will make it hard to pick up with a shovel (heart attack snow) compared to pushing with a plow or removing with a snow blower. The greatest impact from snow locally is expected later this evening through predawn Monday morning as the coastal low tracks off the Delmarva and the upper axis trough moves overhead. Expect two areas of enhanced snowfall: one with the coastal low that will encompass the western shore of the bay up into the northeast/central MD and another with the inverted trough (or norlun trough) across the Catoctin/Potomac Highlands. In addition to this expect heavy upslope snow/squalls over the Alleghenies given strong north/northwest flow. The first area of enhanced snowfall rates will be close to Chesapeake Bay, where mid- level frontogenetic forcing to northwest of the coastal low will be strongest. Uncertainty remains in how far west this area of heavier snow gets, but most solutions show it only impacting the counties immediately adjacent to Chesapeake Bay in our forecast area (St.Mary`s northward through Cecil). Snowfall rates could approach an 1-2 inches per hour at times in this area between roughly 7 PM and 3 AM. Near blizzard conditions are also possible with gales over the waters and gusts in excess of 30-40 mph. The second area of enhanced snowfall rates will be along an inverted trough axis (sometimes referred to as a Norlun trough) that will extend north to south through north-central portions of the forecast area. Dynamically, this will occur along a low-level trough axis (in the 900-700 hPa layer) where northeasterly winds in response to the developing coastal low offshore converge with northwesterly winds advancing beneath the upper trough. Model guidance remains in good agreement that such a feature will occur, but there is still some uncertainty with respect to the positioning. 00z CAMS have trended slightly west with this features extending from Washington/Frederick counties down through Jefferson/Loudoun/Fauquier counties. Such features typically are very, very narrow in width (likely only 10-20 miles from west to east), and are notorious for producing very heavy snowfall rates. Most guidance shows hourly QPF values of around 0.2- 0.4 inches, which would translate to 1-2 inches per hour of snow. This feature will likely be either stationary or very slow moving over several hours tomorrow evening into early tomorrow night. A narrow band of 6-12 inches could occur as a result. Due to position uncertainty, we spread this enhancement in precipitation out over a slightly wider location than will likely occur in reality. Our current forecast hedges the placement slightly more toward the eastern solution (Washington County to Loudoun County), but has an enhancement over that broader region. This is also why the Winter Storm Warning extends southward in Fauquier Co. and wraps around the DC Metro area. The immediate DC Metro will likely fall within a relative min between these two areas of precipitation enhancement, but will still experience several hours of accumulating snow this evening into tonight. Another localized minimum will be between the inverted trough and the Allegheny Front where downslope flow could diminish accumulations especially in eastern Mineral and eastern Grant counties. Very little in the way of snow may end up falling in the shadow of the mountains just to the east of the Allegheny Front and also in the Central Shenandoah Valley. Snow totals will be heavily elevation and snow rate dependent. With such marginal temperatures in place, a lot of the snow will be lost to melting at lower elevations with surface temperatures above freezing, while higher elevations have lower temperatures and accumulate more efficiently. Snowfall: 2-4 inches is expected in the DC Metro, although there could be locally lower totals at the lowest elevations if warmer temperatures and lighter precipitation rates verify. 4-7 inches is expected along the Bay shore from St. Mary`s northward through Baltimore City, with higher totals of 6-12" from Carroll eastward toward Cecil. Higher totals of 8-16 inches are expected in the Catoctins, where snow will accumulate more efficiently throughout the event. Snow will also accumulate efficiently southward along the Blue Ridge, where a general 6-12 inches of snow is expected. To the west of the Blue Ridge, snow totals will be heavily elevation dependent, with 3-6 inches expected at higher elevations between the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge, while lower elevations in the Central Shenandoah Valley and Potomac Highlands see little in the way of accumulation. A general 1-3 inches is expected at lower elevations along the I-70 corridor to the west of the Blue Ridge, with the exception of near Hagerstown, where they could receive significantly more snow under the inverted trough. For now, that inverted trough area which extends southward from near Hagerstown into Frederick and Loudoun is forecast to receive around 3-6", but as mentioned before, the gradient will likely be tighter than depicted, and the max there will likely be between 6 and 12 inches. In the Alleghenies Winter Storm Warnings are in effect. Snow will linger much longer there throughout Monday within upslope flow behind the departing low. Snowfall accumulations there are expected to reach 6-12 inches by Monday evening. Elsewhere, snow should wind down by mid-morning Monday.

If some of this verifies for LI, I hope my job is kind. When Nemo hit, my street didn’t get plowed for almost 48 hours after the snow stopped.

Stop cherry picking negative things just to incite the board That’s something a bored troll would do. Really fv3??

So far it looks like the 6z runs have reduced snow totals compared to prior runs. Heavy returns seem to be staying up north more. I'm don't have the ability to post maps. Still looks like a 8-12 for the metro Philly area and more towards the shore

Just waking up, so have models shifted SW with the higher totals?

Some place within 20 miles of Sayreville to Freehold NJ could have those kinds of totals (30-36 in) and severe drifting. They may be driving snowmobiles down the NJ Turnpike rescuing stranded people.

RGEM about to clobber the area

Latest HRRR

Moron, Pivotal maps are different and I said "some places COMPARED TO 0Z." Why have you become the belligerent jerk? You act like a hungry, tired child. Grow up.

Could very well see someone between CT and Monmouth crack 3', if a persistent band sets up on the pivot. Going to be a very interesting final snow map. A lot of immediately coastal NJ may see totals (if they can be accurately guaged,) a bit on the lower side. Winds of this strength tend to compact snow depth during warmer snowfall. However, it also leads to some wild drifting. We will know in about 24 hours. Fun to watch.

Never seen over 17ish... Feb 2001 March 2001 and Feb 2021 was the biggest both were around 16-17", rest i missed out of the state

HRRR is epic with snow

Where do you live?

I was amazed at how much snow is piled up around Logan including deep pack between the runways and taxiways. This is a heckuva winter despite a lot of whining by some…at least the way I see it.

I think this is the first time NYC cracked 30 in a model run for this storm. Suffice to say this is quite a rare treat (even if it’s overdone).

Still can’t believe how high these maps are with S+