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Serious ? No we dont

No

SREF’s out yet for 0z?

Let's spread the wealth and increase qpf every run. All jokes aside 1 run at happy hour isn't exactly a lock. I am going back to the 2022 thread something familiar

This was my cartoons growing up

Could be worse. Could be last night's version of Kentucky.

We need to see some serious jumps in models soon as time's ticking.

Yup..said this earlier. Get them back out there, and we’ll know where this is really going in short order.

Nahhh, too much sleet. More like 5'6"!!

Come to daddy Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Three days of sunshine and not even the roofs of the houses across the street have lost their snowcover. Normally those are the first places to melt off, almost always the day after the snow.

If forecasting the weather seven days out were as simple as looking at the Euro and calling it gospel, I wouldn’t find it nearly as compelling. The real fascination lies in the uncertainty of what might unfold.

Guys its almost time!

Everybody saddle up. Set your alarms. Make sure your outdoor temp sensors are in working order and properly sited. Tonights the night We're going sub-zero

I'd be more willing to toss the Euro OP if the EPS didn't jump make a big shift. Could still be zonked a bit too much, and wouldn't be shocked to see 0z take a small step back.

Isn't it sad we can't trust models That HH data ingest stabilized every model.

I think there was one in January 1948 with 4 or 5 inches during a great stretch of winter.

Man that's a mauling for eastern areas.

There will be an 1888 in one of the NAM runs. Plus a whiff.

If the models bring this back for us, even a 2-4 inch deal…would be awesome. It’s downright arctic out here we have bodies of water freezing, massive piles of snow and sleet everywhere. You have an absolute bullet proof glacier of snowpack. Adding even a touch of powder on that would be fantastic.

I think the ultimate healthiest way would be to completely avoid models/forecasts all together and just be pleasantly surprised when it happens. That and trips to WV. Though I agree its too late for us but we can still make it better by limiting exposure.

23 / 9 split with the coldest of the season coming Thu - Sat. Overall cold and we'll see if we crack the freezing mark Tue-Wed-Thu next week before next dose of arctic air.

Man, IDK. The more I look things over, the more I get the feeling winter is far from done with us and could be very far. Guidance is indicating a big time -AO developing at 500mb moving forward. My guess is some MJO influence in doing that. Meanwhile, here comes some real potential of a major strat PV disruption with the AO already negative. We're accustomed to a lag time of several weeks for the strat to affect the AO if at all. However, under these particular circumstances there is a possibility of basically zero lag time to see effects. If you split the vortex with an already -AO you could instead see it quickly coupling all the way through the column. Effectively prolonging and amplifying the already -AO in place, starting almost immediately. Its a possibility to do something like that this year...

If Tampa gets snow and I don’t…