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I’m upping my prediction from yesterday (previously 105 kt peak, 80 kt LF) to 110 kt peak, 95 kt LF

Thoughts on start time in north Jersey?

I'd argue that the 80s slight warming resulted more following the 1986-88 double el nino, rather than the 1982-83 el nino. We still got cold, below zero temps here in PHL in January 1984 and January 1985. Besides, global temperatures didn't really reach new records until 1987/88 (following the latter el nino). After 1988, we still got some cold months (like October 1988 or December 1989), but the frequency quickly declined, and below zero temps became pretty much a thing of the past (save for January 19, 1994). So, we can probably extend the similar climate to about 1985 or 1986.

The regional hurricane models started hinting at this yesterday but there’s a solid chance of a cat 4 peak, especially with the still improving presentation. Would like to see more pressure falls continuing for that to happen but this hot tower might do it we’re roughly 10 hours or so from landfall and this hasn’t peaked. I’m growing doubtful of significant weakening given trends this morning. Hurricane models also show this being much stronger on the coast than yesterday.I think the continued easterly motion and increase in speed is the cause.

They have us at 3-5" for mostly Saturday night.

Yea, once it moves perpendicular to the shear, disruption to the circulation increases.

https://x.com/severeweatherEU/status/2108462156245078159 SWE | severe-weather.eu @severeweatherEU Can rapid October snow advance in Siberia predict your winter? This is a famous forecast signal for cold winters in the U.S. and Europe, so we tested it across 47 winters of data and 4 different datasets. The results were surprising, and they change how we should read this October’s snow surge as we head into Winter 2026/2027. The first week of October was a bit slower than normal. But the forecast shows a big surge of snow coming in the next two weeks. If it verifies, this would be one of the faster October snow advances of the last three decades, roughly in the top 15% for this period of the month. Keep in mind that this is still an early look, as most of the data comes from the ECMWF forecast, which updates several times per day. The true final number will only be known after October 31. So, what happened with winter after similar October snow advances in the past? Below are the six years with the most similar October snow advances so far, and the winter AO that followed. The following winter AO was negative three times, near neutral once, and positive twice. Three of these years, 2002, 2019, and 2023, also had active El Niño, like this year, but they still produced three very different winters. So on its own, a fast snow advance this October tells us little about the coming winter in the modern era.

Looks like we may get hammered by this storm with heavy rain. Good thing we are pretty dry still. Our forecast has us at 3-5", most of it Saturday night.

Yeah, on a NNE heading. Due north may not happen until it's on final approach, which is important for shear purposes.

Down from 960 to 959 MB on that latest dropsonde. Convection doing work

One thing that I alluded to earlier but want to say now...both HAFS A & B have this peaking in the next few hours around 115kt. HAFS-B gets this to 123kt around 18z. If we get anywhere close to that it's going to be hard to avoid a major landfall.

Sat image reminds me of Opal.

With this now a major hurricane this thing is coming east as noted above. That will really put us here in WNC in the bullseye in my opinion. Also we've seen this before but in situations like this the models underperforme on precipitation amounts. Also keep an eye out on sustained winds and wind gusts.

We all know that this storm will likely be weakening on approach, but when landfall is around 12 hours away you really want to start seeing signs soon. As it currently is presenting it appears to be a cat 3, which underwent rapid intensification a couple days ago and has since intensified steadily with a jump overnight as rotating columns established themselves, that is still in that process of an intensification jump.

When will it make its north turn. Seems to still be heading north east.

We should bear in mind that as of 2023, if we consider all transport vs the total of all of the industrialized world, fossil fuels is a lot less than that used to power industrialized civilization. Yeah, EV will shorten the car/light truck load, but seeing as some 70 or so % of fossil fuel energy consumption is outside of the transportation sector, and 70 % is still above what is the geophysical harm threshold... bigger eggs to fry. It's not hurting, no - I read that a long while ago. I ran this inquiry past Luna/AI and it's still the case per Stanford studies. Industry, et all, is the bigger problem in the carbon footprint of humanity. The same Luna Q/A resulted in this as far EV offsetting ... "Using 2024, the best-supported estimate is roughly 60%: about 17 million electric cars, plus roughly 1 million electric light commercial vehicles, out of a total near 29 million electric road vehicles when electric two- and three-wheelers, buses, and trucks are included. " That's A B, the surge in EV is notable, but has a long way to go. For the sake of morality and virtuosity, a surge may be an indicator of shitting attitudes and acknowledgements ... may be. It would need more sociological/geo-political type review of course. But even so, considering current on the road usage were a small minority as recent as 2024. We'll see if a surge closes the gap very much but it had a long way to go. By early 2025 only about 4% of the world’s passenger vehicles. So good (possible) indicator of an awakening state; vastly insufficient. Based on all this, I would be surprised if oil spike shifts lower based upon EV surging. Obviously it would effect the curve some small amount... What is needed to turn the curve down is forcing humanity to objectively acknowledge that CC is tantamount to the stench of shitting on their own dinner table - metaphor.

Not on radar, but that tower is producing substantial lightning now in the northern part of the eyewall.

I think the surge will be overblown on this. A fast moving small storm doesn't have time to build up a big surge. Kinda like a Charley situation.

Simon appears to be doing what most EPAC hurricanes have done this year. It's undergoing rapid intensification. A pinhole eye has formed in the direct center of the tiny CDO. This is a microcane for now and on it's way to becoming a major hurricane today. It will most likely grow in size over the weekend. It's tiny core will expand, and the pinehole eye should give way to a larger eye eventually.

Updated images. Note the new tower going up around the eyewall.

FWIW, which is not much at the moment, the GFS/Euro/Euro AI and ensembles have troughing roll through the eastern U.S. around October 18th. It could be enough to trigger another coastal.

Well i didn’t expect it but somehow we got a picturesque hurricane out if this. Clearly very powerful looking at satellite. Beast

That's pre-determined. It should've been retired and replaced. Now I'm guessing it will be

It surely doesn’t seem like it. Granted, I think we’re paying for all of the nice weather luck we’ve had the last couple of years.