All Activity

Great analysis

I'd look at real world observations upstream vs simulated outcomes for each model. That will give you an idea of which model is handling things better.

How does the FV3 usually do with thermals ?

Yeah, temps tanked overnight up there where skies cleared with calm winds, much colder than forecast. Manitowish Waters WI hit -38, and Minocqua -34. Even as far south as Stevens Point, it was -25.

19.9/1.1

I think maybe take a break from the models until tomorrow morning and just nowcast with the radar. Watching every model is gonna stress you out.

Didn’t run

21 degrees, virga overhead, dp 7.

IMO trust the wet guidance on this. Look at the angle of the flow and 700 mb temp advection. We don’t have a dry off ramp. We’re lifting incredibly warm moist air into an anomalous low level dome. No one has talked about this either but in NC, that flow is going to have 3 origin points: leftover Pacific moisture, fresh tap from the gulf and increasing Atlantic flow. Also of note, no guidance had moisture making it to the ground in western NC this morning, so they can’t even nail hyper close range.

Rufus

Road Runner?... suitable Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Split the difference since you’re further north/NE. 5-9” perhaps

NAM actually wasn't too bad with the sleet.

Besides the thermals, I guess I also worry that the storm ends up moving past us even faster than models suggest it will. It seems that often ends up happening, unless its a prolonged overrunning or crawling coastal. There have been plenty of times where we expect storms to last 12 hours but in reality they pass by in about 8 to 10.

For what little it's worth, snow amounts are busting on the low end so far in OKC and Tulsa. NWS has already lowered their totals. Not because of temps mind you, but because there's just too much dry air. It's causing the opposite issue (which michsnowfreak alluded to earlier) of the snow being that sugary type, which is very inefficient for accumulating. It may or may not have any bearing on the eventual outcome for you guys upstream, but just something to be aware of.

Has 12z rgem run?

meep meep

This reminds me a lot of December 16/17 2020. I don't think the public freakout was as over-the-top for that one... but then again, people didn't have the apple weather app yet I don't think.

This has been my idea since Thursday. Since then, my confidence has decreased, not increased. But I’ll let it ride and go down with ship if need be. Meanwhile, I’ll be at the whiskey & chocolate fest in Oaks today picking up storm supplies.

Thank you for this, I was always wondering what the Kuchera algo was, and what it was good for given the many comments. Your synopsis begs the question, why is your preferred approach not available as an algorithmic output? .

Do we even have a nickname for the RRFS yet? Seems we got one for all the others Goofus- GFS King/Dr.No- Euro Skynet- EuroAI Reggie- RGEM ICONic- ICON (Looking at you Astronomer) Uncle- UKMET Nammer- NAM (And I personally call the GEM "Ol' Timbits") Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Decent virga on radar down this way keeping me entertained for now lol Forecast start time pushed out to 7-8pm so we'll see how that breaks later. Some areas of TN are overperforming in the snow dept so that's a glimmer of hope but I'm not feeling optimistic about 4" of clean snow anymore. Time will tell. Ice amounts have bumped up in my area as well. I'll keep posting until I lose power and internet lol.

Low of 11 here and -8 at Deep Creek. It’s so nice not sweating high temps today.

We go through this so often. And people cover their eyes and ears beforehand and pretend it didn't happen afterwards. When the NAM shows sleet it sleets. And the extent is usually north of where the 3rd party vendor graphics show it.

Across Chesco I think a solid 7" to 10" (SE to NW) of snow (6" - 8" snow/and 1" to 2" of sleet) with some ZR snizzle at the end. NAM leading the way