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GFS try to pull a mini-Feb ‘69 next Friday.

Steady light snow continues, nothing sticking though.

Feb 2017 redux?

It doesn't matter where you live, saying winter is over on February 11th is stupid.

did it? looks like snow to rain.

If we could shift that ridge maybe a couple hundred miles west and pump the heights up a bit more (speaking about pattern beyond the Sun/Mon). I really don't think the second half of the month is totally lost but we'll just have to hope something can work in our favor in terms of overall evolution

GFS is a whiff; UKMET a whiff; Canadian is 1-2" forum wide

CMC still holing steady wrt weekend potential

I have been crazy busy at work and don't have time to catch up at the moment so I apologize if this is redundant. But after looking at all of last nights data it's clear there is a path to a snow, especially NW of 95, but it's a narrow one. We need basically the 0z euro solution, or something close to it...0zGGEM. A storm that is amplified enough to dynamically cool the marginal airmass, and in the case of the euro maybe even amplified enough to draw down some of the cold that is just north of us. But this is a narrow path...but the reason that solution keeps showing up randomly across guidance is it's still there as a possible outcome. But the more likely outcome obviously is one of the many other options...either the wave isn't amplified enough and slides south...or we get light rain, or it amplifies but amps TOO much and ends up tracking too far inside and the snow is up in PA like the 6z Euro. There are several options left and only one leads to snow but it's still there. Maybe we get lucky this time! We're definitely due. For places SE of 95 they are in a bit of a double bind. We need an amplified system because of the marginal airmass. A weak wave will just be light rain. But an amplified system tracking in close enough would likely have too much SE wind component for those locations...and without any elevation...it's just a really uphill battle there. Not totally impossible but it would take everything going absolutely perfect...even in the good track amplified option.

Let’s get the first one figured out

Wind now gusting to 34mph.

CMC is close but Temperature issues give us about a 2-inch thump to rain.

The one around the 19th is the next threat.

Thursday

That late March 2018 snowstorm back on the South Shore was one of my late season favorites. It was really gorgeous when the sun first came out and all the wet snow was started falling from the trees. My all-time late season favorite was the April 6th, 1982 blizzard. That was my only time experiencing afternoon temperatures in the 20s and blizzard conditions in April. Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY After March 20th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2026-02-10 18.4 2018-03-21 through 2018-03-22 0 17.0 1967-03-21 through 1967-03-22 0 16.0 1982-04-06 through 1982-04-07 0 - 16.0 1982-04-05 through 1982-04-06 0 15.0 1967-03-22 through 1967-03-23 0 14.9 2018-03-20 through 2018-03-21 0 8.5 1996-04-09 through 1996-04-10 0 8.0 1974-03-29 through 1974-03-30 0 - 8.0 1974-03-28 through 1974-03-29 0 6.0 1984-03-28 through 1984-03-29 0

It's scotting OTS but hour 90, but that should at least restore some antecedent cold even in retreat.

Are you talking about the Sunday storm Tiny ?

Man, if the GEM ever got the s stream up here, it would be nuts.

Watch the storm for next week Gfs has been trending colder

Same here.

Watch the storm for next week. It has been trending colder.

That’s crucial

I'm guessing it's probably the longest we've had a pack also

GEM is really diving that N steam nipple into ME.

Toughest 1.25 of snow sleet freezing rain to shovel but driveway is mostly blacktop now cept for car paths. Noticed bowing on the Rubbermaid pellet shed so roof raked all 4 sheds chicken coop and the northern side of my house. Fence drifts are cool 36 to 42 inches. Level is 16 depth with serious qpf