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Garden variety wakeup showers

49.6° Hooefully we 70s even up here

Imo, The NAM isnt that good for temp guidance on the coast in the spring. Occasionally it can sniff out BDCF or sea breeze better than other models but most of the time it over-do's the marine influence. The BDCF it showed yesterday on its 18z run backed off a lot. The difference between that run and current 6z run in insane. No other model switched up like that. Globals and other hi-res models have been consistent where the NAM hasn't. Models still have a SE wind for Wednesday evening which will cool the island off fast, but no where as cold as the NAM was advertising. Even the current 6z NAM only has a high of 71 for Islip today which will likely be too low. At least the 3km 6z NAM is much closer to reality and other models 3pm Wed 3km 6z NAM:

I don't see it. I'm guessing you're referring to LI though

Enjoy the torch the next few days. I drove north to Syracuse where it’s mid to upper 70s with storm chances all week

55 degrees this morning. Heading out fishing.

@Stormchaserchuck1 Wow at the current subsurface warmth. It’s way ahead of 1997 now. This downwelling Kelvin wave is massive. As per Paul Roundy: “The amount of momentum already integrated into this Kelvin wave has exceeded that of the March 1997 event by roughly 50%!”

60 at the house when I left but hit 52 through the rurals.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 421 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 PAZ033>036-042-053-056>059-063>066-150830- Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Sullivan-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin- Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 421 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. A few storms may be strong to severe with gusty winds and small hail possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few storms may be strong to severe with gusty winds and small hail possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites · · Tue, Apr 14 @ 6:00 AM | Temperatures will rise into the 70s and 80s again across central PA by this afternoon. We'll be watching the remnants of thunderstorms over the Great Lakes to see if it fires up new convection across central PA later this afternoon and this evening. The threat for severe weather increases tomorrow as heat and humidity build.

.07 rain from showers and a t-storm last night.

Raw data determines whether there was a station change not NCDC documentation, which can be incomplete. The 2F cooling of Morgantown relative to Coatesville is clearly a station change of some kind. The Morgantown site was didn't operate for 5 months in the summer of 1966, station changes in Chester County that I have investigated usually coincided with station shutdowns.

Beautiful morning. Clear skues to see the Space-x rocket launch climb the skies all the way from NJ.

What a morning. We enjoy it now.

Looks like we finally see a breakdown of this heat ridge this weekend. We go from the 80s to highs possibly in the 50s with possibly more frost. Looking further out we may finally see a more moist pattern setup over the East also.

Wednesday's convective outlook. Slight risk sneaking into north and west central pennsylvania. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Today's convective outlook. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

First slight risk!

Man, what a beaut out by Guam.

The eyewall should start hitting land within the next two hours or so. This is one dangerous storm. I wonder how good typhoon preparedness is in the Northern Mariana Islands, especially when it comes to a direct hit?

The final strat. warming occurred on April 9th, 13 days earlier than average: @snowman19

Same here My landlord has the heat on

Does anyone disagree with what Chris Martz says here? He says that a record hot W US March would still have occurred had there been no GW because that elevates the starting temperature by no more than about 3F whereas records were smashed by 10-20F. So, this heat wave would still have been unprecedented in the records in scope. It just wouldn’t have been quite as hot, which is consistent with my thinking. I essentially already had said all of this ITT on April 3rd at this link: I’d like to add that the extreme cold over AK/W Canada and the record strong March +NAO were likely all associated with each other. Also, note that on a seasonal basis, cold/warm E US winters are often associated with warm/cold W US winters due to the opposite reaction idea. Also, a cold US winter is often associated with a warm Canadian winter. The W heat was caused by a record strong upper level ridge over the W US. But the ridge, itself, was associated with an atmospheric Rossby wave. Because of La Niña, there was low frequency convection over the W and C tropical Pacific. That caused a cyclonic circ. (deep low) to form over Hawaii. Downstream of that, a record strong ridge was pumped up over the W US:

still have my heater on as i feel cold..