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  2. Met1985
    We need this. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  3. NEG NAO
    won't get flash flooding if this verifies next week in the metro- reevaluate your prediction
  4. Mount Joy Snowman
    Looks like we'll be stuck under an easterly flow pattern for much of next week. If it results in this that would be quite something.....
  5. MANDA
    With a moisture rich atmosphere Sunday onward with high PWATS fully expecting locally heavy downpours such as we have seen over the last few months. Rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour are certainly able to produce Flash Flooding conditions especially with very wet soils ongoing at most locations.
  6. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  7. GaWx
    The area near the Azores is now Invest 99L.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would say it's a tick worse than 1957, though due to the orientation of the GOA low, as it's more elongated towards the Bering sea, as opposed to poleward in the direction of AK in 1957. Would need to see monthlies to confirm, but given the expected retrogression of that low during the evolution of the season, that is likely a limiting factor with respect to periods of cross polar flow during the second half....so news flash, second half probably won't be as good as 1958...no $hit-
  9. Retrobuc
    I am doing an Ironman 70.3 in Wilmington NC in mid Oct. I fully expect tropical activity around that time.....
  10. NEG NAO
    Flash flooding depends on if there are any hours of heavy rain - rain spread out light to moderate over several days does not produce flash flooding in most cases
  11. WxUSAF
    WPC day 1-7 precip total is 3”+
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know it's instinctive to look at the colors on those maps and feel compelled to projectile-vomit, but it's really not far off of a bast-case scenario given the hand we are dealt. I have no issue with this composite...we have a bit of breathing room in terms of latitude with respect to the pig-ridge to the north, and the GOA low isn't pressed up against the coast out west. We can't see the composite seasons, but that looks a great deal like 1957-1958 to me.
  13. MarcmmKU
    No way. October these days almost always has at least one 80 F day. A couple years ago it even hit 80 on Halloween. A sufficiently torchy November also sometimes has 80 F days.
  14. bluewave
    I like the Euro monthly forecasts issued on the 5th which have been doing a pretty good job compared to some of the other guidance.
  15. Lava Rock
    Had planned for some seeding, but just too dry and not going to tax the well water. 1.05" on the month which isn't doing anything. we dry.
  16. MANDA
    Looks like WPC coming on board for a a potentially very wet stretch coming up. Too soon for details on placement of heaviest of the totals but looks like more Flash Flood Watches for some part of this sub forum are in the cards over the next week. PWATS once again modeled to rise to AOA 2". Chances of locally excessive totals for some over the next 7 days increasing.
  17. weatherwiz
    Both Euro and GFS OP want to develop some sort of low along the stalled front later in the week. Ensembles have some signal on this too. Could at least be something beneficial in terms of rain for eastern areas. But its almost not even worth looking at anything 5-7 days out anymore
  18. Chrisrotary12
    Never heard of a paw paw
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like basin-wide La Nina next year...I'd take my chances with that in combination with an easterly QBO and a move away from geomag peak.
  20. Chrisrotary12
    Irony that the author’s name is Molly Rains? It’s been fine here but it’s just tiring when all the excitement happens 25-50 miles to your south. We had 1 great light show from that late PM thunderstorm, otherwise yawn for like a year.
  21. MANDA
    Have had slight hints of color here for the last 3 weeks. Much more noticeable over the last week or so.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nothing surprising there...gotta see what the monthly mean looks like. CFS should have a good idea in another 10 days or so.
  23. MJO812
    My forecast has 60s all week with rain
  24. bluewave
    Overlapping forecast signal showing up near the start of October. A more traditional Nino ridge south of Hudson Bay developing. With the lingering mid-latitude ridge underneath.
  25. TheBudMan
    next door neighbor has a tree and bought over a bag the other night with about 20 of em. A pain to scrape all the seeds and separate the fruit from the skin.
  26. Cgarr737
    0.74” of rain between both rounds yesterday, enjoy the weekend!!
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