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I stayed away from models most of the day until this evening. Just tried to enjoy the buildup to the storm. Then come back to the 18z suite and see multiple cams dropping less than 1” here and euro gone to hell. Just cannot have nice things

I will say this…with everyone getting at least some snow, the stage is set for very cold air to pour into the region through Tuesday AM. Real feels are gonna be rough.

Very interesting. I am looking for other ways to trade NG, because 1 Futures contract is $12,300, and on margin a month like this can swing +$40k. That's a big move for 1 month. UNG is the Natural Gas ETF, but it has a downward bias too strong to consider. Re: natural gas in an upward trend: It may be, but a current difference between $7.20 for the Feb contract and $4.41 March, says it was more about recent cold this month. The difference was within $0.80 of each other at the start of this month. I'm going to do experiment #2, since February looks like another below average month in the east, and the Jan uptick in NG didn't happen when models had it - ahead or way ahead of time - but at Day-0 when it started in actuality. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61644-2025-2026-enso/?do=findComment&comment=7984701 March Natural Gas contract currently priced $4.416 One month, Feb 2026 estimated, move: +15%. Projected end Feb 27, 2026 end: $5.078

down to 11.3 here

You mean some didn't?

I love how everyone thought WRAL started too low with 3-6” now everyone’s praying for 3-6”

I will say, our of all my years tracking weather and thousands of model runs, I’ve never in my life seen where the entire state of NC, every county and every city, all get accumulating snow. The entire state from N to and E to W is all going to get at least 1” minimum and over 80% of the entire state looking at 3-10”. Absolutely wild! SC has a 70% coverage for the entire state and GA around 60%. Absolutely insane storm lining and up and potential to be overall one of the biggest in the last 15 years for everyone on this forum. I’m headed to bed now, got my alarm set for 6 AM. Cheers y’all, it’s been one heck of a week tracking and can’t wait to see the forum tomorrow! Signing off from Winder, GA! Happy Snow Day!! .

12k looked better but 3k was east. Man the convection in this will reek havoc.

I think East Central North Carolina coastal plain can do really well, but if you’re looking for your most reliable spot that’s gonna hit it has to be Charlotte which is wild to say .

Almost 3" in that picture.

Nickel and dimes mixing in now in sweetwater. Light to moderate snow when the winds pick up. 28F 26DP 88% RH .

If WRAL scores the coup here they’ll never let us live it down

I’m in Greensboro so I’m equally susceptible to the dry slot. I’m just not going to trust a model that has been this all over the place every run without more consistent guidance elsewhere.. I do know that there are some very good Meteorologists that also are seeing this potential but the HRRR which is clearly been drier than ground truth and the NAM, which has been bipolar today are not gonna be sending me off the cliff. At least not yet .

It’s @MJO812 police car after one of his big Italian lunches.

You're thinking we're getting a west-based +QBO Nino, or did I misunderstand this post and and the one you replied to?

I fully believe that a dominant northern stream is why amplification is nearly impossible to come by since 2021-2022. We’ve had some decent cold months since then, but without a NS and SS in sync, we end up with mainly cold and dry as opposed to the epic winters of the 2000s and 2010s. I think a SWFE event into a strong high pressure will be the way we get to average this season in NYC. We’re at 22, we just need 8 more

13 here

You all east of 81 appear set.

I’m gonna head to bed early. Hoping to wake up to better vibes and hopefully something on the ground?

Yeah im not liking these trends tonight. I guess all we can hope for is that they trend somewhere else. It won’t take much to get back in the game. Hopefully the ULL doesn’t cut as far south and the surface low can interact with it sooner.

Charlotte might be the jackpot in the whole state

I do think the best lift comes in around midnight or just after for TRI and holds for a few hours. Though to be sure, empty or meh radars leave me depending in total faith on modeling and a concern this lacks some energy which was modeled. Let’s see where the 0z models go. I think they turn downward west of 81. If not, we could be in good shape. IMBY, this was scheduled to start around 2:00PM and run until Sunday early. It started around 1:00PM. To my surprise, it didn’t stick until the sun went down. And according to the WSW, rush hour could have been bad. Fortunately and thankfully, that didn’t happen. So at this point we wait. I continue to say the usual NW slope winners of the past…will be winners now. The cold front “should” get everyone to 2-3” outside of Chatty…and I never venture a guess there. To get higher totals, we are gonna need more energy building back as modeled or have an elevation advantage. Like John said…slow burn. IMBY…very slow burn. But let’s see…this is a cold storm and that is a not so common occurrence. There will be surprises almost assuredly - Captain Obvious.

I have a little over a quarter of an Inch. Most of that came down very early, just shortly after dark. It has been snowing without stopping very very lightly with tiny flakes.

Congrats