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The models are hinting at a block-fest (as depicted on this map) coming our way. Is this typical for a super El Nino fall? Aren't big Ninos usually drag-strip zonal?

Ok so the last 5 day away cool shit prediction was 5-7F too cool. This Saturday has been ranging 53-55 for Saturday high predictions so let’s see how this cool shot prediction goes

Tell @ineedsnow that!

Forget 38 cane, Nov 1950! That would be *way* worse net-net b/c of the areal coverage of the big winds. And we'd less even less prepared b/c ppl do not react as much to storms w/o a name on it or if it is not snow.

Those posters here that frequented the Blue.. they’re coming for you https://x.com/journalinquirer/status/2109934209020113115?s=46

https://falls.uslakes.info/Level/ https://kerr.uslakes.info/Level/ Really bad situation around here shaping up if something doesn’t change

Not bad for Oct. @weatherwiz

ORD had a high temp of 88° yesterday, which broke the record high max temp for the date of 84° (2008/1960/1956).

Chicago/O'Hare had a high temperature of 88° on October 12th, which broke the record high maximum temperature for the date of 84° (2008/1960/1956).

70 today

Simon had become quite the microcane. Pretty eye this evening

The most reputable source for QPF following an event is the stage 4 bias corrected dataset that takes in observations, as well as a wide array of gauge data sources to go along with bias corrected radar estimates. Here's a graphic with the final estimates from the event. This makes a lot more sense for your area.

It seems like they bumped up Friday's foretasted temps higher to the mid 70s now...might be the last shot in the city for a while or the rest of the year. Does anyone have a handle on Friday's storms yet? So far it's looking like showers in the morning, a dry midday, and a possible line of storms in the late afternoon/evening but I'm not sure if I'm interpreting the models correctly.

Newly formed Trudy is fcst to become quite intense. Trudy as name rang a bell for me since this was also an intense Oct hurricane (135 kt) in 1990. and hung around for two weeks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Pacific_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Trudy Of the top 5 EPAC ACE prior to 2026, 1990 is #4 and that was a neutral ENSO year. In fact, of this top 5, only 2015 was very strong El Nino.

82 for the high. Williamsport, Altoona, and Bradford had record highs today.

"Squashed spider!"

First twenties this weekend? After we get past Friday it looks like some pretty fine weather.

Made into the low 50's today with 0.26" of rain yesterday in the mid 50's. Cloudy all day, but looks to be breaking up, so any clearing will allow for some colder temps tomorrow am. Seasonable wx for mid Oct.

91. Hopefully the end of this crap.

Yes, also recency bias - the cognitive shortcut that what has happening now or very recently has more significance/importance than what was prior. When you look at wx history and all regions of the world, you can find numerous focused regional wild periods for wx. Just for U.S. HUs? New England had 5 hurricane landfalls 1938-1960, and since 1991, none. People back then in the region would be like, "what the heck is going on?" and people now in the same region would be like "what's a hurricane?" FL is nothing new to wild periods: Hit by 5 category 4 hurricanes 1945-1950, 12 hurricanes 1941-50 w/ 6 major, and a record 13 landfalling hurricanes 1871-80. Or more general: From 1926-1969, 14 category 4/5 hurricanes had U.S. landfalls. For the period 1970-2016, only 4 category 4/5 hurricanes had U.S. landfalls. The 14 yr period 2006-19 had 3 CONUS major hurricane landfalls. This is the least for such a period since 1900. The most is 13 from 1915-28. In June 1886, 3 hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. No other June has had more than 1. The last June CONUS hurricane landfall was in 1986. This is the longest stretch w/o a June CONUS landfall on record.

My family is from Norfolk and I grew up there as well. My father was 8 in 1938. The flooding was the really big issue - he would tell us stories of him and his 6 brothers along with their mother wading through the flooded Blackberry river with his mother threatening them to an ounce of their lives that they had to hold hands as tight as possible to get through the water. I believe the hillsides were pretty denuded from the charcoal industry and farming - I don't believe '38 took huge stands of trees in Norfolk. I have seen photos from relatives earlier than 1938 that show the hillsides as pasture with sheep grazing on Haystack Mountain.