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Not sure why anyone was thinking this was going to be big after yesterdays runs. Was looking decent Saturday into yesterday morning but by yesterday evening it became apparent it was not looking as serious.

That's the part that baffles me. The fear factor behind this one seemed to be turned to 11. It didn't make sense.

How much has fallen in Marquette ?

Downpour in Rockville. Not much wind.

I get that vibe as well - I just can't imagine this second round doing much with the conditions I'm looking at through the window. Isn't this pretty much exactly what the high res guidance was showing late last night?

It’s pencil thin, but that might be the punchy part when it comes to wind, and that’s all I can say really. I don’t know how it’s been closer to richmond, but on the coast so far its been a rainy dreary day. The second batch of rain is still approaching, so after that we can watch what happens.

Sun is popping out back this way.

Warm and rainy here in Durham, no even moderate winds and no thunder yet.

Area near Fairfax rotating?

Setups like this stink in this part of the country. 9.9/10 times they bust, then you get the 0.1 time where things go gang busters with meager sunshine. You do a post mortem on all of the event and they look all the same, yet you wonder why this one time we nuts.

Yeah, I've never heard of March 1st climate boundaries March 21 is an 'event horizon' - impetus being, you notice nothing crossing that date. At our latitude and other geographic constraints, notwithstanding, ... March 21 doesn't mean anything to the progression of spring. You cross the equator with direct sun? jack shit. You may as well delineate the .3deg of latitude shy of the Equator that happens on the 20th and galloot about that then. If you look at our climate, March shows a defined and most obvious total -differential in both cold and snow, and.... much to the amazement of denialims, that's starting work backward into Februaries. In fact, the first day of spring should philosophically begin on Feb 10, the date the celestial mechanics imposes the escape from the solar minum into what is called the solar transition season. Yeah, March 21 ...

This map suggests the highest risk for tornadoes is in far E NC in the red area fwiw:

RIP

Sympathy to his family, may he RIP.

Make a thread

Glad I've been downplaying it to all of my customers today. Quite the bust on the way. Hell I might have not downplayed it enough. Sure, there will be some more 50KT reports and a tor or three but I anticipate this probable bust is going to cause some issues later in the season when we do actually get a system with a clean warm sector. And that's pretty likely, imo, given the strong ramp into Nino.

Current Status ((OPM on DC-area offices)) Status: Early Departure -- All Employees Must Depart No Later Than 2:00 PM Early Departure -- All Employees Must Depart No Later Than 2:00 PM “Employees of [specified Federal offices at specified locations] are authorized for Early Departure. All employees Must Depart no later than 2:00 pm at which time Federal offices are Closed.” Telework Employees at the Office will receive weather and safety leave only for the time required to commute home. Once these employees arrive at home, they must complete any remaining portion of the workday by teleworking, taking unscheduled leave (paid or unpaid) or other paid time off, or a combination. Non-Telework Employees at the Office will be dismissed from their office no later than the final departure time 2:00 pm (as applicable) and will be granted weather and safety leave for the number of hours remaining in their workday. Telework Employees Performing Telework are expected to continue working and generally may not receive weather and safety leave. They must account for the entire workday by teleworking, taking unscheduled leave (paid or unpaid) or other paid time off, or a combination. Remote Workers are expected to continue working and generally may not receive weather and safety leave. They must account for the entire workday by working, taking unscheduled leave (paid or unpaid) or other paid time off, or a combination. Emergency Employees are expected to remain at the worksite unless otherwise directed by their agencies. Employees Departing the Office Prior to Their Early Departure Time or the Final Departure Time (whichever is applicable) may request unscheduled leave (paid or unpaid) or other paid time off. Such employees will not be granted weather and safety leave for any part of the workday. Employees on Preapproved Leave (paid or unpaid) or other paid time off—including an employee who has requested unscheduled leave before an early departure policy is announced—generally should continue to be charged leave or other paid time off during the scheduled time and should not receive weather and safety leave.

Meh thats too late. The 20th to 30th had promise and still can produce but we need to see encouraging NAO trends. I thought the NAO would be more negative with the MJO going into 8 and 1.

@GramaxRefugeeI was just gonna say...I thought I just saw him post recently! But like you said, we don't know could've been sudden. So sorry to hear this--seemed like a genuinely nice person who you could always have discussions with. He even humored me when I started a thread about following the Farmer's Almanac back when I kinda believed it, lol Praying for his family.

I think that tiny bowing segment W of Fredericksburg will probably be the one that finally sweeps through DC. Will probably be marginally severe but whatever.

Sun is baking here.I'm not so sure we're done yet.

Dropped the warning for the line I was setup for. Don’t even know if I’ll get a shelf

Deepest sympathies to his family.

I got it pretty good as far as garden variety thunderstorm. Heavy rain for about 20 minutes ,six or seven strokes of lightning, and maybe 20 mile per hour gust.