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No 90s today would be a victory.

Very strong El Nino does not guarantee a big Atlantic rebound TC season the next. 1983 is the lowest ACE season in the satellite era. 1992 was sig below avg ACE (76) and had only one major HU. Yes, that was Andrew, but one high-impact landfall does not change the overall Atlantic season as to historical avg. Outside of very strong El Nino? 1977 was weak El Nino and ACE of 25 - the 2nd lowest ACE in the satellite era. 1978 ACE (neutral ENSO) was 63. 2013 ACE was only 36 (neutral ENSO) and 2014 ACE (weak El Nino) was 67. Also, very strong El Nino is not always followed by La Nina. 1991 very strong El Nino was followed by weak El Nino 1992. Finally, El Nino and La Nina are not just polar opposites due to the non-linear responses of the ocean. And there are no less than a dozen other atmospheric oscillations going on around the globe at the same time, all interacting and in various states.

85 at DCA, 87 IAD, 88 BWI at 1pm... lots of 89s around too at other reporting stations

How does the ChescoWx East Nantmeal forecast stack up against the National Weather Service? After 7 weeks of scoring every forecast against what actually happened, the temperature results are pretty clear! Since August 22 we have verified 50 days and about 2,800 high and low temperature forecasts, each one matched up against the NWS forecast for the same day issued at the same time. ChescoWx was closer on temperatures on 45 of the 50 days. The NWS was closer on 4 and 1 was dead even. The typical ChescoWx miss was about 1.8 degrees. The typical NWS miss was about 3.0 degrees. For tomorrow's forecast the gap is widest... about 1 degree for ChescoWx vs about 2.5 degrees for the NWS. The edge holds out through day 6 and the two are basically even by day 7. About 8 in 10 ChescoWx forecasts landed within 3 degrees of the actual temperature vs about 6 in 10 for the NWS. Much of the NWS gap is a warm lean on daytime highs of about 3 degrees in our backyard. Rainfall is a different story. On the 10 days with measurable rain the NWS did a bit better, and both forecasts badly missed our two biggest rain events (1.66" on September 3 and 2.42" on October 11). Rain is where we are focused on improving next. Fair caveat... 50 days of late summer and early fall is a start, not a final verdict. We will keep scoring every forecast through the winter, and snow will be the real test! The live scorecard is on the Current Weather page here: https://chescowx.com/current-weather/ Let me know if any questions!

How does the ChescoWx East Nantmeal forecast stack up against the National Weather Service? After 7 weeks of scoring every forecast against what actually happened, the temperature results are pretty clear! Since August 22 we have verified 50 days and about 2,800 high and low temperature forecasts, each one matched up against the NWS forecast for the same day issued at the same time. ChescoWx was closer on temperatures on 45 of the 50 days. The NWS was closer on 4 and 1 was dead even. The typical ChescoWx miss was about 1.8 degrees. The typical NWS miss was about 3.0 degrees. For tomorrow's forecast the gap is widest... about 1 degree for ChescoWx vs about 2.5 degrees for the NWS. The edge holds out through day 6 and the two are basically even by day 7. About 8 in 10 ChescoWx forecasts landed within 3 degrees of the actual temperature vs about 6 in 10 for the NWS. Much of the NWS gap is a warm lean on daytime highs of about 3 degrees in our backyard. Rainfall is a different story. On the 10 days with measurable rain the NWS did a bit better, and both forecasts badly missed our two biggest rain events (1.66" on September 3 and 2.42" on October 11). Rain is where we are focused on improving next. Fair caveat... 50 days of late summer and early fall is a start, not a final verdict. We will keep scoring every forecast through the winter, and snow will be the real test! The live scorecard is on the Current Weather page here: https://chescowx.com/current-weather/ Let me know if any questions!

Hopefully a very snowy winter up north

Im in TN, the only place even hotter than home. This is ridiculous.

Five days with rain during Oct 1-12, totaling 0.14". Number 6 brought 1.29".

from NWS RAL: The 1pm hourly observation at RDU was 87, which beats the previous daily record of 86 (set in 1985).

Got 0.15" yesterday. Nothing today and doesn't look like anything is coming based on the short term models.

What to see how much of an outlier 2004 and 2005 were for major HU totals and those that had a CONUS landfall as a major? 3 of 32 hurricanes in the Atlantic had a U.S. major landfall 1995-2003, 7 of 13 2004-2005, and 0 of 29 from 2006-2016. This underscores how recency bias is something not to fall prey to. Recall how after the 2004-05 season, it was widely promoted, "this is the new normal an how it going to be going forward." And then you got the longest major hurricane CONUS landfall gap on record (11.5 years). Did you hear this good news ever promoted in the MSM? Sure, since 2017 it has been very active, but that is normal as well in the big pix. Up and down TC cycles occur in every permutation possible over the long-term. Point being is that using short-term snapshots in wx as climatological avg/mean/changes is severely flawed and should not be done. The cognitive shortcomings present in human psyche are unfortunately often taken advantage of to skew reality. We can all relate to this at one time or another!

76/68. May need to reinstall.

Not much rain this AM

That inland 118 in Jay is pretty incredible id almost say unbelievable if it wasn’t for the 114 recorded nearby. Not surprisingly the wind damage in those areas is devastating

85/66

Explain to me how a windmill kills whales. This is complete nonsense. We just had an enormous wind farm built off the coast here on Long Island, and the amount of actual whale activity had increased by orders of magnitude in the last decade. I have never in 28 years of ocean life gaurding spotted more whales then I did this summer. .

Plus... if fossil fuel really is that impossible to get away from then we are assured of two world destinies: an ontological death an actual die-off I suspect though that folks just enjoy the sport of the argument...? fine. But while that ball-game is being played, those overarching ultimatums are objectively looming. In other words, do it! tough shit. But of course, the problem with that is that people do not believe that the proverbial pistol is actually pointed at the head. For the rest, look ... no one is insinuating any of this is going to be easy. It is going to be hard, very hard. In fact, so much so that it is of higher likelihood that humanity won't be able to get off the oil-heroin without transferring violent withdraw frustrations, unilaterally. That's rhetorical euphemism for destructive conflicts. I just wanna point out couple aspects for muse/thought: The first is ... the problem with Global Warming is not warming of the globe. That was a mistake of the early science ambit when this issue of humanity's industrial flatulence become abundantly clear to the very small population that is really even capable of understanding the future peril. When that become obvious to those that know, the 99.9999999% of the world that finds all this "math" as mentally untenable, simply were ill-equipped so... denial was going to be inevitable after sociological forces worked it over. The way GW should have been exposed was to say - it's species adaptation rate, more importantly .... being slower than the changes to the environments within which they were evolved prior to the arrival anthropomorphic forcing. Resources become challenged ? But that's a separate issue... We are inexorably dependent upon the interconnected species of the global "Gaia" - for lack of better word. When those relationships sever - because keystone bacteria ...say etc...- undermines the foundation of food and resource pyramids... tick tick tick The 2nd is that innovation in our species as tool makers has outpaced the normal checks-n-balances that intertwine use with the surrounding ecology. There are probably better ways to formulate that sentence/phrase out that sentiment, relative to the reader's comprehension, in hopes that they really understand what is trying to be conveyed. Look at it this way... in the Darwinian machinery, all other species mutate enough to survive, and those mutations thus live on so that the next generation has that ability built in. Human have a unique power, to innovate beyond that species requirement. If you sum-up the quotient that is over the top of the species basal requirement, that surplus is probably 1::1 equal with problems that are being defined. I've been saying for years that the moment in antiquity that the early hominid picked up the burning stick, we were doomed. It was just a matter thousands of years... a time span - by the way - that is an instant cataclysm relative to the geological ages. At a minimum, that same mutation, innovation, will have to become our savior.

Certainly would be an epic disaster but the shore between surge and wind would take down substations and large transmission lines.

I met a guy yesterday who was living on Tindell base in Florida who was at ground zero for Hurricane Michael. His stories would make any fool who thinks they want a major Hurricane to hit them directly, think twice. . Sure the vicarious thrill is awesome for us weather geeks but with no home yea that lasts a day then reality hits like a ton of bricks. Folks talk big until they actually have to deal with all the shit.

Extended Ensemble outlook (not a forecast) shows a cooler trend than normal for last week of October and into the first couple weeks of November.

Extended Ensemble outlook (not a forecast) shows a cooler trend than normal for last week of October and into the first couple weeks of November.

I’d even argue that amount of time power loss inland too…38 was the real deal.