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You ever look in a storm's eye, Chief?

Yes, I'm not playing that stupid game this go around.

Yeah, lots of wasted potential. Starting with that Feb 1-2 tease.

Hoarfrost starts the thread, chief.

Agreed....this is why I need to see 00z at least hold to even consider taking this seriously.

OK, honest thermodynamics/atmospheric physics questions that has puzzled me for a long time. Right now my temp is 60.3 °. Temps are dropping very slowly. Sometimes on nights like tonight's the temps completely steady out. The ground is warm so it radiates energy at a high rate. To slow (or even stop) the temperature decrease, something must be adding energy, but what is it? The sky is clear so there is no downwelling radiation from clouds. There is no wind so there is no warm-air advection or turbulent mixing. Where is the energy coming from? Is it radiating from the water vapor in the air?

The EPS has an intriguing look late in the 11-15 day. Pacific a hair better, but some weak NAO ridging showing up with a mean trough more in Midwest.

That would be the tenor of the month

Going to make a relatively brief synoptic analysis of why I actually sorta like this setup IF we get a H5 setup akin to the GFS or CMC.

You would have to believe we can at least cash on one this winter, Its been a run of bad luck that has to end at some point.

OMG, can you imagine how much it actually snowed in the 1890’s. We won’t be able to leave our house for months.

He's gonna go under!

can’t write off anything time to sleep on it and see how things look in the morning

Hopefully it doesn’t back that ass up west only to leave us drunk, covered in glitter and whacking it to pretty 5H charts

my gut is this is the typical 6/18Z flopping we just saw with Feb 16-17 coastal and Feb 1-2 SE scraper. Hopefully im wrong on that and 00Z continues a W trend.

One fail at a time please.

Storm can’t go down with east ticks on him. Not with east ticks it can’t.

Can’t argue that

Yes, And the end game has been a COC tease then ended east where it started.

And they have some good mets on that station... head scratcher for sure Fitzgibbon, Burnett, Williams... Cindy is the chief met if that means anything

About how i feel about it, But get more members to west too, There is a good cluster heading there but we can't have more regression ea run.

Maybe time to lock this piece of trash of a thread?

Discussion from NWS isn’t putting much stock into significant snows this weekend. Only the WV ridges reaching advisory level .

Top analogs for next winter going to be 02-03, 09-10, 82-83, and something from the 1890s.

We have enough time if it ticks east again maybe one run... but after that it better back dat ass up west for the remainder of the period