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Dr. No Returns

Fun while it lasted Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

6z EuroAI still showing a "storm" with similar accumulations to the 0z run. All I have is TT to go off of, so no snowfall map is available to me.

33 and foggy. No rain yet despite some decent radar returns overhead earlier. The 0z suite would be quite a kick in the nuts but nothing we aren’t used to ha.

Actually you want the MJO to be in phase 8 or phase 1.

Yeah, that was a big take away for me this morning when interrogating like I normally do once I get settled in. The afternoon package yesterday started giving me hints of this being a sloppier phase, or phasing a bit too late leading to a more eastern solution, or weaker and south. I think the major bomb solutions are relatively off the table, but there is still some time for adjustment. So long as the vort ejection gets sheared to the west before any phasing, we will not be looking at any massive outputs, but we can still score something in this setup. It's not completely dead yet........

Look at the bright side - If this thing doesn't develop, we're that much closer to next winter!

I don’t have a good gut feeling on this tonight . Hoping 1-3” but not confident in that

there’s our little weather man, how’s the big snowstorm looking there slugger

“ the grass always seems greener on the other side.”

Help me to understand Mappy. What do you find so offensive about saying that a storm is unlikely based on climo? It’s literally the best most accurate analysis in there. I don’t get the controversy at all. I’m not disruptive either. My posts are maybe 1 post per like 50 pages. If you 5 posted ne I’d still have 4 excess posts a day. I think You all just need someone to bully. It’s sad.

When the EURO is alone showing a hit = glue factory When the EURO is alone showing a miss = a king in his court.

Well there’s always the Hail Mary that the models lose it then get it back but the euro never being invested was a red flag. It’s maybe not coming

That usually ends up working out for places further north.

Ok enough with the sun angle crap, we’ll get to that in March. With good rates and temps low 30’s snow will accumulate especially if the snow comes in overnight. It’s Wednesday 5 days to go yet as we’ve seen this season a final solution won’t be settled till Friday if at all. I’m hedging on this being a moderate storm at best and most likely for Eastern areas. So just buckle up and enjoy the ride.

@TriPol why didn't you open the thread? Can't you just open up a new thread and delete the old one that Rjay opened up ?

Seems the most common theme on guidance for Sunday is an inverted trough somewhere through the region as a focus for precip (snow or rain). Those are notoriously tricky to locate well in advance but can give some lucky people a nice event if the stars align. Even the AI models have this IVT to some degree.

I’m gonna enjoy Friday’s 4-8 and leave it at that

So much for the myth that the AI models don't make big moves inside 5 days, lol. The cave to the Euro is nearly complete now.

There's always next winter. I just hope the PDO turns positive, more so than an el nino.

There's always next year.

Salt washer

Thanks boo. Have a great day

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