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Just got home after driving through heavy rain all the way through Calvert county. My rain gauge has 1.1" in it from the storms today so far. Solid drought remediation. Seems like more to come too.

Let’s just use pure math for now to set expectations. If we use Ninos that reached > +1.5 during winter 5/9 or 56% had a HECS. If we use years that reached > +2 during winter 2/3 or 66% had a HECS. Clearly we have a significantly elevated probability of a HECS this winter. But yes for the DEBs the caution is the years in that analog set that didn’t have an HECS were really really really awful winters for the most part.

Biblically the wettest start to August ever here. A harbinger of what's to come for the entire month, perhaps? 000 SXUS71 KILN 021040 RERDAY RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1039 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2026 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT DAYTON OH... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.20 INCHES WAS SET AT DAYTON OH YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.19 INCHES SET IN 1953. $$

Come on wooly worms! Lol!

2.04 Elimsport still coming down hard.

Had a pretty intense but short lived storm move through Greeneville about 30 minutes ago. Picked up half an inch of rain in 15 mins

Maybe I will get more than 0.20 inches of rain this time.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 350 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ053-054-527-030400- /O.EXB.KLWX.FA.A.0012.000000T0000Z-260803T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 350 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, and portions of Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore, and northern Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park and Fairfax. * WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Portions of the Baltimore Washington Metropolitan Area have already received a quick 1 to 2 inches of rain today. At least two additional waves of showers and thunderstorms may affect the area through this evening, some of which could train over a single area. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, potentially locally higher, could result in flash flooding of small streams and urbanized areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$

Yes. Much of that has to do with modeled tropical cyclone activity. Mainly Typhoon Dolphin and 94W in the near term. Other stuff is modeled beyond that too. TC's can play some games with those RMM charts sometimes rendering them misleading. I enjoy looking at the MJO a little more in depth when I am able to. Including satellite obs. Notice around the MC it's actually mostly clear. The underlying MJO signal is poised to make it's way across the west Pacific then interact with the el nino. Beginning to offer amplification as it continues working its way further east during week 2. Aiding a powerful WWB as a result. That's my take on it anyway.

This isn’t about measuring GW. This is about using the most appropriate 30 year period to determine what normals are. Due to GW, normals have increased a couple of degrees over the last few decades as you know. Thus, 1951-80 has been outdated for decades to use to determine normals, which are always changing.

For early Augdewst, this is solid https://imgur.com/a/LKPmfMD#o6bl5XP

Flood watch hoisted Times they are a changing

The longer range model consensus is suggesting the possibility of a very long MJO phase 6 streak later this month, the 2nd this year possibly reaching 14+ days, and with a likely max magnitude of 2+. Longest MJO ph. 6: # days; max mag 7/28-8/18/1984: 22; 2.5; 7/15-8/4/1996: 21; 2.0; 10/13-31/2022: 19; 2.2 6/13-30/1984: 18; 2.0; 1/5-21/2026: 17; 2.7 11/16-12/1/1998: 16; 2.5 10/6-20/1988: 15; 3.0 7/19-8/1/2018: 14; 2.5 2/25-3/10/1997: 14; 3.6

Down here in the extreme drought area and flood watch area that was supposed to get the soaking rain today... Well it's been a rather sunny day after 0.43 this morning... Still well under 2 inches total since late June...

I can totally see a narrow zone or a few towns getting 3-5” but that would be combined with both the morning stuff and if anything fires in the afternoon

1.63 and rising fast Elimsport.

Another rain slug coming up for the I-95 corridor to the Bay.

Got ya.... Duration argues against widespread flooding issues but parameters, as stated by Wiz, are in place for some localize issues... It's almost always about intensity rates and confidence is rarely high in these situations. The low/mid level moisture surge could easily produce some surprise heavier than modeled zones and forecasters should not sleep on "potential".

That’s incredible - we’ve had good rain the last hour finally

AC -DC 1.85” here

Flood Watch extended to northeastern NJ counties

Beautiful sea breeze but cloudy. Pool feels fantastic

Some weenie in NY ridin’ along in his automobile trolling mPing with 5” hail obs, blowing dust, and overflowing rivers. Hate to see it.