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“The CFS continues to trend upward in even *relative* Nino 3.4 signals with new initial conditions in spite of relatively little westerly wind stress forcing, as the model initial conditions better integrate the subsurface ocean state in response to westerly wind forcing already integrated into the ocean system. The relative index fixes a real problem of the warming of the global tropical ocean, but it also shrinks the scale of Nino 3.4 events beyond that because the relative index includes signal driven by ENSO itself.”

Damn clouds

Pretty good heavy and steady rain here at Coppin for the past 30 minutes or so.

The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week: Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:

Nice rain here in 21057 for the last hurrah for a while.

Love it. Man, this rain is much more robust than anything modeled or forecast for up this way. We actually had a downpour a little while ago here in Harrisburg and still raining very steadily.

I think there's a laziness component to this issue, like other things, some people don't want to/can't perform relatively simple tasks like adjusting clocks. I think we have the best of both worlds the way it is now - extra daylight in summer evenings and enough daylight on winter mornings. If we change it, fine, but it wouldn't be on my Top 10 list of priorities for this country.

Some more needed rain is crossing the area this morning. We are now up to over 85% of our normal rainfall for the year to date here in East Nantmeal with some spots now approaching average precipitation levels for the year. Today will be our last in a stretch of mainly cloudy and wet days. A beautiful end to the work week and upcoming weekend is on the way. Plenty of sun on the way with temperatures running a few degrees below normal as we close out May and move into June.

Some more needed rain is crossing the area this morning. We are now up to over 85% of our normal rainfall for the year to date here in East Nantmeal with some spots now approaching average precipitation levels for the year. Today will be our last in a stretch of mainly cloudy and wet days. A beautiful end to the work week and upcoming weekend is on the way. Plenty of sun on the way with temperatures running a few degrees below normal as we close out May and move into June.

This "rain that is going to stay to our south" just won't go away today...

That's the highest elevation summit cam I'm aware of in Southern Vermont. This storm is about a week later. I'm not sure what produced this snow in 2025 upslope/storm nearby.

adjust the time zones so that we all get noon sunrises thx

It's like walking in soup out there right now.

No Makes zero sense to be dark at 7-730 in summer

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0258&yr=2026 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0258 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 920 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026 Areas affected...Maryland, District of Columbia Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 271319Z - 271519Z Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will exist as a cluster of storms over western Maryland moves through the region this morning. Discussion...A persistent cluster of thunderstorms was noted via radar mosaic imagery near Frederick. These cells have shown modest signs of intensification in the last few minutes. They are being supported by weak mid-level waves moving through zonal flow over northern VA and near 70F dewpoints that were fostering 1.75-2 inch PW values and ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Despite current rain rates of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr, moisture values increase with downstream extent toward the Chesapeake Bay. Though appreciable steering flow was supporting fairly quick movement of individual cells (around 35-40 knots), increasing downstream moisture profiles and urban ground surfaces/lower FFGs nearer to I-95 (0.75 in/hr) may support isolated instances of flash flooding this morning. This potential should be brief (perhaps extending through 15Z/11a). More upstream convection is possible later today and will be monitored for any flash flood potential beyond 15Z. Cook ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI... ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC... LAT...LON 39727661 39527578 38907572 38667657 39187757 39657737

It seems like as the curve of GW continues to rise, we get these freak cold excursions occurring later and later. I wonder if we'll get a late April thru early June 82-91 freak early summer some year, followed by a single afternoon of snow chances on Stratton Mountain Resort - Summit 3875' | 2025-05-22 07:37:20 PM ....on actual June 21st

Part of the reason neither solution works-it's what we are used to for the last 60 years.

Bingo Going to permanent standard time would be terrible causing a massive cultural shift Im fine where it is..solves both issues..its not a big deal to change clocks

No, this is the stuff my dreams are made of. I love all things numbers. I went to my first MLB game back in 1971 at the Vet. I can tell you the paid attendance for that game to the exact number. I've had it memorized for 55 years. That's just how I'm wired. I had .05" of rain early this morning. It looks like we'll get wet again soon but not to the extent that I'll experience here at work and farther south.

Snow at Stratton summit last May 22nd. This is the latest I've seen snow this far south. Wonder if it happens again this weekend.

Nice 'cane on the GFS late next week

That cold pop over the weekend is weird. That's like enclosing a -3 or deeper SD cold anomaly inside the size of a standard hurricane's πr² And moving fast ... in and out in a single afternoon. The other thing that's weird is that seldom do we observe a surface low develop over N Ontario and dive along a 170 deg azimuth to the NH Seacoast like that. It's ultimately not a big deal - yeah yeah it may cat paw at midriff terrain and non-stick snow on some summits for a coffee break, but that' hardly noteworthy. It's an under the radar highly unusual event if it goes down the way the guidance sets at this time. I still wonder if we aren't going to see a short term normalization of some of these aspects tho. We'll see.

The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week: Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:

God, I hope not. I barely knew what an air quality advisory was until that year. Then we had them in effect for something like 3 weeks straight.

Even with the rainfall over the past week RDU is only at 1.54” for the month. With rain chances decreased through the rest of the week, looks like yet another month here with less than 1/2 the normal rainfall for the month