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The ONI ended up borderline super probably because of all the warm water available but the other indices weren’t nearly that strong. This is where ONI skews the results IMO. If you look at that Nino more as a moderate to high end moderate then this super Nino isn’t as surprising as it seemed early this year.

DT is sounding the bell regarding the SSWE and its never-seen-before timing in a Super El Nino setup. I guess that means the QBO plots should be crashing at some point on the horizon?

If we do get cross polar later in November flow this might move into Canada and then move SE based on a - AO regime. FLXweather-Dave @FXweather26823 In the U.S, we tend to focus on northern Canada for the annual rebuilding of cold air in the Fall, but Siberia is the true cold air factory, and it's producing a surplus right now. Much colder than normal air has spread all the way to, and beyond, the Mongolia & China border.

Traditional ONI: almost +3.5C RONI: +2.9C The EURO has been dead balls accurate with this event. The over +4C peak it shows for December is not only believable, it’s very likely. Also, the subsurface warming continues. My final call is a December peak of +4.0C - +4.1C (traditional ONI) and +3.5C - +3.6C (RONI). I think the subsurface peaks next month at +13C

I am starting to get interested now. https://x.com/griteater/status/2115136878211223702 griteater @griteater Such a stable looking GFS run with the SSW (shown here at 30mb). Model runs will vacillate, but this one was a biggie with a SSW on Nov 4 still going at Nov 13

I know it sounds cliche, but awful forecasts are the best learning tools....it's all about perspective. You just have to own it and approach with an open mind.

The most recent NBM cycles have grown slightly cooler for the start of November. Nevertheless, readings remain well above average.

This October pattern is a near repeat of the one from two years ago when we hit 80°F on Halloween and then again on the 5th of November. I don't know if this will be the warmest October ever, but it will likely have the most >60°F days with all but one day exceeding that high. The 17th ruined a possible perfect score with a high of 53°F. La Nina vs. El Nino doesn't seem to make a difference there. Welcome to extended summer.

Cohen man idk. That dude is always forecasting big snow lols.

weenied for being right

Don't have much time today; just wanna get this out there before I forgotted, as my niece would say- This is likely to physically stress the PV, below. It's the 100 hPa level thermal anomaly centered on D10 off 00z last night, over at the strat-trop monitoring office. Said stressing would likely respond a -AO index as we age on thru the first week of November. This may be what the background soc-media chorus is singing about? Not sure, but this did not have an origin from an SSW event. Just so's that's noted. as I was mentioning to Ray yesterday, it won't make much difference. Timing perhaps. But whether there's an SSW --> -AO (after 20 day lag) or something going on from bottom --> up ( which this appears to be...), there is likely to be a -AO response of some kind in either case. SO, I'm not hugely put off by anyone that thinks it's SSW but just sayn' That's impressive there tho... It's actually in place already as of the initialization last night, but is amplifying out in time. I checked the rotated PCP analysis version and the AO is in fact crashing to about -.5 by Novie 7 or so. The same source - btw- also depicts the PNA rising to an impressive +1.5 to almost 2 SD... We'll see where the hemispheric conveyors set up on the AO stuff but that PNA is a mode change.

People start looking for winter earlier every year…and when it doesn’t show up in late October, well winter gets cancelled.

weak Nino's turn out to be the best for us like 09-10,77-78,..also weak Nina's after strong Nino's..like 66-67. Maybe next winter.

In Methuen people are taking wood pallets from business parking lots....

You need a break

Not going to be like that winter unless very strong blocking happens.

here for it obviously these are heady times for those of us into anomalous wx of all types

saturday halloween with these temps, look out

poor thing

09-10 had a cold December and a snowstorm on December 19th..That's not happening this year, wish it would, sorry

Where’s 70 today? ….55 here today. Maybe Friday though. And You say the same stuff each October Brett. Last October you were so down on the upcoming winter too ….then you got two 2 footers plus. lol.

Judah Cohen blog https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html Plain Language Summary The widespread warmth across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) this past summer and now the fall has continued into October (see Figure). However, a series of stretched polar vortex (PV) this month has led to some, albeit modest cooling in Siberia, East Asia and to an even lesser extent far Eastern Canada and New England (see Figure). However, one last stretched PV will bring more intense cooling to Siberia and East Asia and yet again more modest cooling to far eastern Canada and New England (see Figures 3 and 6). Some blocking in the North Atlantic and near Scandinavia will also bring colder temperatures to Europe (see Figure 9). But all eyes then turn to a much larger disruption of the PV that is likely to have an important influence on NH weather late November into December.

He already busted last winter.

Our first state of the Nationwide Study is now complete. First up is the state of Pennsylvania. We will release one state per day over the next 47 days. For much more detail including study design, by decade breakdowns, county by county maps and breakdowns for all State Counties that compare actual vs NCEI trends for each state please go to https://chescowx.com/raw-vs-ncei-state-by-state/ If interested in seeing your state next up on the list please let me know and we will do our best to release that state within 2 days. Thanks again! The main finding for Pennsylvania is the actual readings show no warming at all since 1895! NCEI's published series shows significant warming. Averaging what Pennsylvania's observers actually recorded, county by county and weighted by county area, gives a flat statewide trend from 1895 to 2025 (-0.02 °F per decade, not significant). NCEI's published statewide series warms +0.17 °F per decade, about 2.2 °F in total. The two diverge at +0.19 °F per decade (p < 0.001). NCEI's series runs 1.5–1.8 °F below the actual readings in every decade from 1895 through the 1940s, about 1.0 °F below in the 1950s and 0.7 °F in the 1960s. It is within about 0.35 °F from the 1970s on. The short version NCEI's 67 counties add up to its statewide series. Weighting NCEI's county values by area reproduces its Pennsylvania statewide series within 0.03 °F in every year. Building the state from counties is therefore a like-for-like comparison. The actual readings show no significant statewide trend. They give -0.02 °F/decade (95% range -0.10 to +0.06). NCEI's series gives +0.17 (range +0.10 to +0.24). The ranges do not overlap. The two trend lines are significantly different. The gap between NCEI's statewide series and the actual readings grows at +0.19 °F per decade (95% range +0.15 to +0.22, p < 0.001), so NCEI's adjustments add a statistically significant amount of warming. County by county, NCEI's adjustments add significant warming to the trend in 25 of 43 counties (58%) and significant cooling in 0. NCEI cools the early record in nearly every county. From 1895 through the 1940s, NCEI's county series is cooler than the actual readings in 90–100% of counties in each decade, by a median of about −0.9 to −1.7 °F. The share is 77–81% in the 1950s–70s, about 53% in the 1980s and 1990s, and about 31–33% after 2000. Recent decades match. From 2000 on, the median county difference is about 0.0 °F. NCEI is cooler than the actual readings in 32% of county-decades and warmer in 41%. County verdicts flip toward warming. 43 counties have long enough raw records for a trend. In the actual readings, 8 (19%) show significant warming, 31 (72%) no significant trend, and 4 (9%) significant cooling. In NCEI's county series, 41 (95%) show significant warming and none show cooling. NCEI's trend is steeper in 42 of 43 counties; Philadelphia is the only exception. The 1930s lose their warmth. In the actual readings the 1930s average +0.9 °F against the 1991–2020 normal, the warmest decade before the 2020s. NCEI puts the 1930s at -0.7 °F. Chester County fits the pattern. The actual readings from Chester County's GHCN-Daily stations give -0.01 °F/decade (not significant), against +0.24 °F/decade (significant) for NCEI's Chester County series over the same years.