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Lol the GFS just dropped like two feet of sweet digital snow on the eastern shore I would qualify that as a big storm

DT about to be Pounding his chest.

Totally agree with you. This looks alot like a storm we don't mention in these parts lol

Very concerned that if much of the snow falls during the daylight hours Sunday, it will really struggle to accumulate in very marginal low-level temperatures. Rates will be critical to our chances of a measurable snowfall.

but but but the CMC.....

Stfu

Nothing to do with the region or the people, I just have no interest in a storm if it misses my area.

964 near the benchmark on the GFS. Less than a week out. We need the Euro on board.

Yup. The f'ing doom posting is ridiculous. "Oh no, it's not a HECS, that means it's guaranteed to be nothing!!! And it's trending toward the not-so-great 12Z Euro run!! OMG!!!" Jesus. H. Christ!

So neither the Euro or GFS show a big storm. But ya know, no big deal.

Yea, the overall trend sucks. ......I mean, you can take your free throw from behind the house and still bank it in off of a garbage can , but it's a lower percentage shot.

Forget the tight precipitation field for a second - verbatim, this would be awesome.

oof

Expected a worse outcome from the early 500 MB panels. Shows what I know ...

You set up a good example of what I was referring to in my last post. If someone from Lincoln County, which has gone well over climo this winter with 11”, had moved to NYC for more snow this winter, he/she despite getting double that as of now (21.2” vs 11”) might end up mad if that were to be about it for the winter (that’s very doubtful though as this next storm could give them a lot but that’s beside my point). Why not be happy they got 10” more to enjoy as a result of moving? That’s why moving north often doesn’t work like one expected.

In the end that H5 low was able to come north as the block moved out of the way.

It's ok if the op models aren't giving us a bullseye yet. However we need to see continued improvement on the ensembles.

Good thing it’s the GFS. Next.

take precip totals with a grain of salt this far out - locations of heavier precip will change run to run and model to model

Hahahahahahaha!!! Tell us you Hate dealing with the Mid-Atlantic without telling us Ray.

it's east of 12z but who cares at this lead time

Let's see if the GEFS at 18Z is better. It was pretty bad at 12Z.

I wasn’t a fan of the evolution though. Looked like it would unravel south.

We got 16" on Boxing day, 10 miles away got 6". Insane gradient.