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i'm sure cracker barrel rebranded because of woke and not because marketers and focus groups determined it would be more profitable to expand beyond the centrum silver crowd

Factor in it’s bias and ensembles translates to 80’s

No one knows what this winter will be in August. Long range forecasts are crapshoots and have been wrong in the past several years. Just like every winter forecast i have seen so far is very cold and snowy for the east with the weak la Nina. All nonsense this far out. It takes skill but grain of salt

The Southwest Monsoon has been on fire this year with stronger than usual upwelling in the Arabian Sea. Combined with recent trades, we actually have a nice incipient -IOD pattern setting up, which should help boost our Nina into the winter months. This winter looking interesting from the standpoint of the Pacific pattern on the seasonals: Looks encouraging for increased cross-polar flow, PV favoring our hemisphere and a typical Nina gradient-pattern. This MSLP pattern is also pretty favorable for a follow-on reduction of the trades, which may line up nicely when the developing -IOD terminates: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/16/16/1520-0442_2003_016_2668_tsfmit_2.0.co_2.xml

Worst of the heat is surely over but we'll certainly get a warm or hot period-heck last year we had low to mid 80's in the first week of Nov-granted that was aided by dry conditions...

I’m not sure if it can get into the Caribbean as a coherent system, but if it can survive vorticity stretching over the next few days maybe it has a chance. This looks trickier than models suggest. If it survives.

Yep. Pretty unremarkable melt season weather-wise. Area and volume significantly lower, but not exceptional or anything. Beaufort took quite a long time to melt out this year, closer to 2013's melt season, and there's still an intact arm into the ESS -- whereas the CAB itself is actually record low on area. The easy to melt stuff is long gone and a transition towards Atlantic-side dominance may yet take some more time.

My inner Ji is saying, "Great, let's use up all the cold air now so we torch during winter." Seriously, every day, every week from here on out w/o running the AC is a victory!

mid to upper 70s on the 12z Euro for the first week of September.. we take!

Unless you think 80s aren't summer

No chance

Lol yeah so more coating to 3 inch events like last year, except even less likely since there's no way its gonna be as cold as last winter.

more pics of the barn please

The 12Z Icon has this as a 997 TS at 180 in the W Caribbean moving WNW:

How many times have I said Elias needs to go? Now if I were in front office PR why would I say that? Lol It's almost like because I'm not telling Rubenstein to sell the team already, or just am giving him a little more time to see what kind of owner he'll be, that y'all think I'm somehow orange kool-aide drinking or something for the FO. I am not. This really has less to do with Elias other failures and more to do with the question of the organization as whole and the question of their willingness to lock up young talent early. And in this case...this is how I see it: I just disagree with this narrative that the team simply isn't trying. I mean just last year...Boras himself said that the Orioles had been constantly reaching out to him about Gunnar "only every other day". That means he turned them down, lol And factually: None of those Boras extensions have been "early" except two: the rest came in arbitration years. In total: It was just 5 Boras players who took extensions before free agency. Now if you wanna argue against facts I can't help ya... Yes he works for the players: But what has history shown us? He wants his players to maximize their value and they follow his lead in that almost every single time. Gunnar has only just started building his star power: The fact of the matter is they'd have to drop like $450-$500 million right now to get him: and only MAYBE would Gunnar and his agent accept that (they might not). He could actually make more if he waits for free agency. I think some of you are vastly underestimating the problem Boras has been and why fans from small market teams all over can't stand him as an agent.

Not very often a still designated as tropical system produces TS wind gusts simultaneously in Nantucket and Bermuda- from 2 am: tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 370 miles (595 km). A wind gust to 51 mph (82 km/h) was recently reported at the L. F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda, and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was measured at the airport on Nantucket, Massachusetts.

Lol

meteorological summer ends by sept 01..

A combination of both is ideal.

I can see the -EPO, the +PNA not so much, especially since it’s a 2nd year -ENSO/-PDO. Not saying no +PNA but IMO it will be limited

I still think that all of the extra water vapor/moisture around the globe(compared to a few decades ago)helps keep the summers cloudier and cooler there while keeping the other seasons warmer. Every year when October rolls around these days, the temp anomaly maps go from light blue to dark red. It just can’t cool down as fast as it used to with so much more moisture in the air. Having more open water than decades ago probably just adds to the moisture.

No

From Dr. Viterito (via JB), the person who thinks that warmer oceans (and thus GW) has been caused mainly by undersea volcanic activity: I’m putting this out for discussion purposes, not to take sides with him: Arctic Ice Comment from Dr V ..And now we have yet another research nugget that needs to be explored further. This recent article by Matt Vespa points to the fact that Arctic sea ice has not declined since around 2005. So, the Climate Change Narrative Just Took a Broadside. Want to Guess What It Was Over? A deeper dive into the data from Climate Reanalyzer paints a slightly different picture. Specifically, it pinpoints the year when the decline stopped as 2007. Here is their chart: Climate Reanalyzer, University of Maine As a correlate, the Mid-Ocean Spreading Zone Seismic Activity (MOSZSA) matches up VERY well. Here is that chart: Clearly, the "trough" in Arctic sea ice extent began the same year (2007) MOSZSA plateaued i.e., 2007!!! Too many things correlate strongly with MOSZSA: global temperatures, global sea surface temperatures, Arctic sea ice, the AMO Index, oceanic heat content, Western Pacific thermocline depths, Kuroshio intensification, and other responsive geophysical phenomena. More to follow...

is summer effectively over in the northeast?

just set it up near me. We never get thunder and lightning anymore.