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  2. TheDreamTraveler
    The days leading up to the 4th look like they're going to be very hot
  3. Torch Tiger
    do you drive the forklift faster through the warehouse to catch a better breeze?
  4. NEG NAO
    Only thing we know about July 4th 9 days out is that it will be very warm to hot around here. Impossible to know how hot or anything about rain and storms at this point.
  5. ineedsnow
    Then there's me wanting to take a mini vacation
  6. SUNYGRAD
    I believe an all-time of 104 is in jeopardy in Greensboro either JULY 3rd or the 4th, we shall see- I believe the highest temperature ever recorded in Raleigh, North Carolina was 106 °F which occurred just two years on July 5, 2024.
  7. Torch Tiger
    some meaning, each and every one of us
  8. BlizzardWx
    I think it IS pretty good right now for the most part. But I also think as the globe warms it will rise. It's really a function of lapse rates and a 30C surface is usually good enough to guarantee conditional instability for the time. But this ties back to my other post that a robust +IOD and +ENSO circulation could still cap it.
  9. SUNYGRAD
    I believe the highest temperature ever recorded in Raleigh, North Carolina was 106 °F which occurred just two years on July 5, 2024.
  10. high risk
    Would be really nice to be able to lock in a heavy precip event, but there is just too much uncertainty with position of the front, timing of waves, and overall strength of the system. My dream heavy rain scenario is convection along (or just behind) the front later Friday, overrunning showers and storms Friday night, and more elevated convection Saturday with the front hanging around and a shortwave.
  11. Typhoon Tip
    mm... it was like this in it's 00z run, too. Maybe not quite as extreme, but it's an east outlier with the 500 mb total placement of key construct when comparing pretty much everything else. "Some" would probably be wise to bear that in mind ... that, and that fact that this model - as far as we can tell - is actually an ICON of shitty forecasting technology
  12. steve392
    Gorgeous afternoon so far. Sitting outside with dog, slight breeze watching planes on approach to Newark Airport. Really don't want to go to work
  13. Typhoon Tip
    mmm one gets the distinct impression that model's attempting to limit or abolish heavy rain in the foreground, then, limiting any heat E of the Hudson ... leaving only the iffy hit or miss convection signal - which will be cleverly biased on the latter side of that chance.
  14. Typhoon Tip
    For heat enthusiasts ...this is your problem for next week
  15. weatherwiz
    speaking of GFS...lets hope it verifies next week. We ride the MCS train
  16. RitualOfTheTrout
    Hopefully we have a decent weekend for the 4th, hot summer time temperatures would be acceptable. Certainly looks warm next week. Should be a good week to spend some time in the pool.
  17. ineedsnow
    ICON gone wild next week.. some will be happy lol
  18. frd
  19. frd
  20. frd
    Right on cue, rainfall looks to be on the increase as we near the end of June and head into early to mid July. Higher dew points, tropical connections, cold fronts and El Nino. https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/2070165098128142678 The rain signal picking up for portions of the Southeast as we move into July.
  21. Typhoon Tip
    heh 12z GFS is no where near the NAM's idea. Having seen that...I gotta lean on the NAM being the NAM N-W bias at 60 hours. If this were circa November 20th and we were in the midst of a cool snap anyway whether there's anything on the charts or not ... Ineedelectroshock posters of the forum would be presently representing their razor sharp objective restraint by going hee-haw hee-haw galloot galloot galloot over this NAM's 6-10" warning snow event, having fully considered and judiciously constrained their emotions over the matter .... Maybe the Euro or some other model supports.
  22. NorthHillsWx
    This weeks rainfall was helpful as generally 1-2.5” fell across the exceptional drought area though we would need to see repeated systems do the same to see any real progress. Sadly looks to be going back into the fryer this coming week with no signs of additional widespread rains
  23. Today
  24. LakePaste25
    That’s a good question. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor (exponentially) but i’d think it also takes more to actually wring it out. The warmer SSTs certainly help with that. Intuitively i think the “magic number” would have to go up as it warms.
  25. GaWx
    Does 30C remain a “magic number” with a warming globe? Or does the “magic #” keep warming as the globe warms? What is the science behind a 30C “magic #”?
  26. Brian D
    Upper 30's/40's this morning again. Highs around 70 today. Missed out on any rain yesterday as it dried up before reaching town. Areas to my W picked up 0.50-2" where the rain slowly moved through before dissipating.
  27. BlizzardWx
    That is the question! I hope we can do it but I am still on the fence about whether it happens or not.
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