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  2. canderson
    A bowl surrounded by a million trees? What ever do you mean?
  3. Great Snow 1717
    Same here..
  4. CAPE
    Good band but I'm not sure Merriweather is the best place to see them tonight lol
  5. weatherwiz
    Yeah the duration is certainly a question, but then again, duration of higher heat events is always trickly here just because of our geographical proximity to Canada and vulnerability of fronts moving through. I guess the question would be, do any fronts completely alter the pattern or would it just be a case of multiple days of average temps before we blow another warm front through and bring in another round of heat? Magnitude isa challenge too, but that is a very large plume of ~+25C 850 temps being modeled into the OV...doesn't take much to really break some of that off and send it our way, especially ahead of a front or even build the airmass in if ridging expands east.
  6. GaWx

    TS Bertha

    GaWx replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters

    Peak Flight-Level Winds: 62kt at 11:55z
  7. yoda
    I don't think we see pure blue skies and sun today... I think as the sat image you posted shows we will have sun and clouds. Should be enough as long as its like 3 to 5 hours of it
  8. WestMichigan
    Almost a complete whiff here. I had a trace and that is it. At least the air is better today.
  9. SouthCoastMA
    OK I missed the post. Was just checking out some of the 6z ensemble means. I don't doubt it will get warmer, but a bit skeptical on the magnitude/duration
  10. weatherwiz
    Tip made a post on it yesterday, but you can see signals in that likelihood. Matches up kind of well too climatologically where we can get big (kind of final) big heat pushes in early August. The longevity of it though will certainly be a question given the continued theme for troughing to our northwest, but if anything that at least keeps the door open for cold fronts/convective potential
  11. wxdude64
    Big thunderstorm rolled thru here around 4 am with lots of CTG lightning and booming thunder. Not much wind (26 mph gust) but picked up 1.07" of rain, which beat previous daily record of 0.99" from 1984.
  12. Kmlwx
    Red circled area looks decent...
  13. Kmlwx
    Severe wx is fickle....impossible for any of us to say. 5 miles makes a huge difference on days like today for sensible weather. If nothing else - 80 miles isn't terrible in the grand scope of things...and I guess there are worse places to be than Columbia
  14. Kmlwx
    I've always been vocal in my opinion that I love our summer severe crew. With a few notable exceptions over the years we all just seem to mostly get along and not stir up the drama like the larger crowds in winter. Sure....every now and then we get the ethics debate about "rooting for" severe weather. But all in all, we are just fellow weather weenies trudging through the hot, humid, disgusting days of spring through early fall until we can start tracking first frost/freeze. This is banter, and I am being a little overly nostalgic - but I mean this wholeheartedly when I say it: Some of my most fond weather memories have been centered around Eastern/AmWx over the years. Sure...the actual weather events themselves are the "core" - but I've experienced them alongside all of you. I've had the pleasure of meeting some great characters from here in person at the conferences as well. Whether we bust today (or in general) or not...gotta say ya'll are awesome.
  15. SouthCoastMA
    Doesn't look like a huge signal to me, though I suppose it could get a bit more humid than it is now.
  16. canderson
    Hive mind: Should I bail on driving down the 80 miles down from PA to a concert Merriweather/Columbia tonight? Seems … somewhat risk and safer to just swallow the lost $$$. (if anyone wants Death Cab for Cutie tickets tonight reach out lol)
  17. NEG NAO
    Yes and there is some clearing to our west - but how much of that is going to reach us ? Also today is not going to be a complete washout like Saturday was - the Upton forecast makes it sound more like a overall rainy - stormy day
  18. jm1220
    Looking like N NJ and Hudson Valley are favored for heavy rain then some zone south of there with a split screw zone in the middle. You can already see a good bit of rain headed for the favored N NJ/Hudson Valley area.
  19. Bryan63
    Enjoy, family is also Norwegian, spent a month there summer before high school with family that still lives there and hoping to get back to experience it again. Absolutely gorgeous country.
  20. NEG NAO
    someone should tell them Newark isn't located in Middlesex County - as for todays precip the flow is southwesterly and so far nothing has developed to our southwest but its still very early - another question is - how unstable is the atmosphere going to actually get later today to produce any watches and where exactly is this all going to setup - favored areas in central NJ and NYC??? or can that change ?
  21. dailylurker
    True lol. I forgot there's like 5 of us that care about severe. I just love thunderstorms. Not like I love snow. Thunderstorms are spicy. They've tried to kill me a few times lol. I like seeing those breaks to the west and sw. Let's see what today does. I'm headed down to Fort Washington this morning. On days like today I look like the guy on Good Fellas driving down the road looking at the sky watching for helicopters following him. I look the same but watching for sun lol
  22. Snowacane
    Got .20, first rain in weeks
  23. weatherwiz
    Higher heat and humidity will be building in through the first week of August.
  24. GaWx
    To set the record straight, 25/26 rather than 23/24 is the winter that I said that @bluewavewas too harsh on as regards the 8/1/25 Euro and mid-July ‘25 CFS performance overall for the Conus. They forecasted ~+2F anomalies for the Conus averaged out geographically, which was ~36F. I posted them here: That means they were predicting the 7th or 8th warmest winter on record back to 1895. It ended up at 37.1F, which is ~3F above both the 1993-2016 climo base of the Euro and the 1991-2020 climo base of the CFS and the 2nd warmest on record. That’s a decent performance by these two imho, especially with DJF being ~6 months out! They missed by only ~1F and thus still predicted quite a warm winter even though not warm enough:
  25. Ginx snewx
    Jesus
  26. Ginx snewx
    Hmm
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