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You think we'll get some of that here in the city?

All three major indices favorable (albeit near neutral mid-month), may be hard for models to resolve

A surprise 2” here overnight. Still lightly snowing.

Not saying you did…but others were posting big bright pretty orange and red colors….showing 20 to 25+ degrees above normal. We just said that would probably mute as we close in, and indeed it has. I know it’s tough for you to ever give some of us non pros any credit, but I think we had the right idea on this one. Now Go have a painkiller(the tropical cocktail type, not the narcotic) …and enjoy!

Ensembles looking better again past day 10

I think I’ll stick to mid month as a safer bet.

But nobody claimed days of parakeets. It’s just a crap pattern. If it’s 40 and rain, is that better than 60? To me it means the same. Crap pattern until something more conducive comes along.

And the Euro has a really.nice hit jan 13

09/10 was simply perfect

I apologize if I came off as model bashing in the general sense, that wasn't my intention and I can see that my statement was a bit unfair. We've seen incredible advances in modeling both physical and AI, and seeing 0.6-0.8 correlations in 500mb anomalies from 10+ days out is an incredible feat. I only meant that their performance have collectively taken a hit lately in the 11-15 day range especially in the past 5-6 months. In the grand scheme of things, on a global scale, they still perform better than 10+ years ago. But regionally, they have been struggling with the trough/ridge placements such that we're seeing wild swings in our forecasted sensible weather in our back yards. Again, sorry about that.

From EPAWA Sussex: Scattered snow showers begins around 10pm ending 5am Sunday, can leave a fresh coating of snow, but less than an inch.

Yup. That’s what I can’t stand. But whatever. A thaw is coming for a few days..and we’ll take it. Then back to a much more wintry set up that looks to take hold pretty quickly.

Love this setup. Classic boundary SWFE sorta thing without diving deep into the 500mb maps. Hey @CAPEdoesnt this look like what we were discussing?

I just have this feeling our snowiest month is behind us (Dec) and we'll eek out the season in the 20-25" range total which isn't horrible but w/all the cold around I would have expected more. Still early of course and it's good to see flakes flying every other day but the season ending amount may not be all that impressive. Hopefully we reload after the brief warmup and blast the rest of Jan into Feb... 28F

Didnt he just cancel winter for the 3rd time a mere 2 days ago?

Silly im only 6' tall

We know how every single one of those has gone since September. It’s shown that scenario countless times only to turn into cold rain or even wintry at times

Yeah south of pike is clean warm sectored with no precip on that run so there would be temps tickling 60+ if that happened. But there’s a boundary very close by…like near 40F around Ray’s area to near BOS.

What I don't get is there are a select few that like to " feed the fire " and get off on hoping the pattern turns warm. They really get off on twisting the knife. Well.. the good news is most of us know that it's just noise.

Yea we are averaging 6 degrees below normal here and continuing the next 4 days. That's approximately 38days at -6. When was the last time that happened

Have your neighbors installed an 8 foot fence yet?

But that’s with the cutter no?

Euro does try to get parakeets south of the pike next Saturday…near 60F. But it is for one day.

It’s been snowing most of the day here. Did I miss that in the forecasts? I spent the morning over in Washington and was surprised at how persistent the snow has been. It’s been light to moderate at times and no real accumulation but I really didn’t expect it at all.