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Yeah, our only shot locally is flukey secondary nonsense. EPS is actually more into it than I assumed it would be. Worth watching cause nothing else is on the table right now

Is NYC the NE to you or the mid atlantic ?

Agreed. As depicted, this is a mountains special, which isn't uncommon in November.

While their snowfall map was reasonable, I would have broadbrushed the 12-18" zone more evenly from the mountains all the way eastward to the beaches, and then cut the numbers by 70%. So basically 9-14" for the entire midatlantic outside of the higher elevations.

Median on the 12z EPS (yes, the MEDIAN and not the mean) shows 0.3"!

12z EPS has an incredible amount of hits (hits mean at least flurries at one of the airports of BWI, IAD, DCA, and RIC). 38 out of 50! (76%)

That depiction might work for the mountains (prob not for Cville) if that's the way things went but pretty sure the only way we'd see flakes in the metros where most of us are is if the EURO/UKIE/CMC/ICON have a clue and we just happen to be the lucky spot

First flurries today!

Like I said, it took the best winter ever and one other good one in that 15 year stretch to get it to 21.8, the other 13 years averaged less than 17", like what we have had recently. Those 15 years for my area not far outside the city were worse than the last 9 here. We only had 2 years where the benchmark track worked in that past timeframe, the rest of the 15 years didn't for the NYC vicinity.

Frost advisory tonight for Suffolk, westchester and S CT.

Next week, Orlando may see its earliest temperature in the 30s since 1993. This is big time cold coming.

Latest GFS does something interesting with the primary costal low as well and honestly gets close to snow from a completely different route

Many times it’s been done with snow in the morning and wet leaves in the afternoon. Early winters of yore .

So, you want more November cold?

please try to rebuild

The secondary development is fairly clear on the 12z EPS... not paying for individual members yet but the mean through the area is a T of snow at this point.

that's unreal, no hints of green up here at all. Enjoy the Christmas day leaf clean up.

pretty crazy, born 1990 and have lived through almost half(23/50)

Downeast was best.

Yes sir…stepping down steadily as Jerry said.

ICON has it for Central Va, UKIE has it for NE MD. Think it could be real… would just like first flakes without needing to drive to Snowshoe

Yeah I think the Ukie as well recently have been completely inaccurate. I'm cool with some snow, which at least looks likely with some mood flakes this weekend.

GGEM has that upper low thing as well, but farther south so brings the "snow" through NC and southern VA. On a different note, all the 12z ops have completely punted any real warmup for mid-month. Have to see if ensembles agree.