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WB 12Z AI ensemble looks darn good to me....

It goes back in the good ones Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Well then you three!

"AI will takeover the world." Also AI:

Very unusual to have the warmest Thanksgiving during the 12th coldest November. Climatological Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - November 1933 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1450 1059 - - 687 0 0.90 0.5 - Average 48.3 35.3 41.8 -6.2 - - - - 0.0 Normal 54.0 42.0 48.0 - 511 1 3.58 0.5 1933-11-01 64 49 56.5 4.0 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-02 65 50 57.5 5.3 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-03 63 51 57.0 5.1 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-04 54 38 46.0 -5.6 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-05 41 29 35.0 -16.3 30 0 0.10 0.1 0 1933-11-06 39 33 36.0 -15.0 29 0 0.33 0.1 0 1933-11-07 46 37 41.5 -9.1 23 0 T 0.0 0 1933-11-08 44 34 39.0 -11.3 26 0 T T 0 1933-11-09 44 32 38.0 -12.0 27 0 T T 0 1933-11-10 40 32 36.0 -13.7 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-11 45 28 36.5 -12.9 28 0 0.04 0.0 0 1933-11-12 45 35 40.0 -9.1 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-13 59 38 48.5 -0.3 16 0 0.08 0.0 0 1933-11-14 43 32 37.5 -11.0 27 0 T T 0 1933-11-15 32 21 26.5 -21.6 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-16 30 17 23.5 -24.3 41 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-17 36 19 27.5 -20.0 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-18 41 36 38.5 -8.7 26 0 0.14 0.3 0 1933-11-19 39 34 36.5 -10.4 28 0 T T 0 1933-11-20 49 35 42.0 -4.6 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-21 58 32 45.0 -1.3 20 0 T 0.0 0 1933-11-22 60 47 53.5 7.5 11 0 0.04 0.0 0 1933-11-23 48 37 42.5 -3.2 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-24 43 32 37.5 -7.9 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-25 50 36 43.0 -2.0 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-26 55 43 49.0 4.3 16 0 0.17 0.0 0 1933-11-27 43 28 35.5 -8.9 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-28 54 32 43.0 -1.1 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-29 51 42 46.5 2.7 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 1933-11-30 69 50 59.5 16.0 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 Coldest November Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1873 37.2 2 2 1871 38.8 0 3 1880 38.9 0 - 1875 38.9 0 4 1882 39.0 0 5 1901 39.7 0 6 1869 40.6 0 7 1887 41.2 0 8 1894 41.3 0 9 1872 41.4 0 10 1917 41.6 0 11 1976 41.7 0 12 1933 41.8 0

10-day ensemble mean for early to mid December looks decent. More favored here in the interior/lakes due to climo, but also can’t rule out one or two a small events and/or front-end for I-95. For you I-95’ers, Boston on N is probably more favored for a moderate event or greater. We will have to see how things evolve.

A good start. Something to track. Even if it doesn’t pan out for us

Seems every time a threat thread was made in the last few years, minus a couple, they fizzled or didn't pan out... my opinion is within 48hr if we're still in alignment model wise, it'd be fairly safe to start a thread...also, looks like some decent mid level magic may happen somewhere in SNE if it plays out as currently modeled, quick hitter though too, so be hard to get double digits unless rates are good and growth is good.

Me too!!

Me too

you move alot?

Hard pass on a thread. Storms still 5-6 days away

EPS likes Dec 5-6 a lot more than Dec 2-3.

If I get 4-5” on Tuesday, I will bow to my AI overlords

There’s quite a few in here that are superstitious lol, But no reason for a thread that’s 5 +days out.

Keith is concerned about events thru 12/6 Hapoy Thanksgiving my man!

Happy Thanksgiving to all!!!!

Oh yea. Gimme.

Euro has been trending towards a more neutral, slightly negative AO/NAO after Dec 5th. Good to see.

It’s best to thread these when it’s obviously going to affect only one region, or there are multiple threats. For now everyone has a chance so we can keep it here.

Sunday at the earliest. I don't bother looking at model runs until within 48 hours...anything outside of that is sort of like looking through the SI Swimsuit issue and believing one of the swimsuit models is stopping by for dinner..

Shut up and embrace the technology!

If it is broken, that would be why imo. @Jidid you say you can see the individual AIFS members? Or just in WxBell

^is this like tropical tidbits accumulating NAM freezing rain at 10:1 ratios??

Being chased out of town again are you?