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Just siting nude...booze on one hand, schlong in the other.

The Euro has a crazy amount for ice for our area, which literally never happens, so I think its wrong there- probably more sleet, some ice, then plain rain. GFS is as good as it gets for us I think- stays below freezing here, a period of sleet, then back to snow. It would be something like 8-12". Euro is hard to say because the changeover will likely be sooner, so maybe 5-8"? Then a lot of sleet and some ice on top of that. When the real deal cold comes back in we are gonna have a glacier- at least there wont be blowing and drifting of snow onto the roads in the days that follow.

Nope.

yep, transfer does happen, and GFS has it taking a classic path Ne up the coast. 6z is even better than 0z. Goalposts are starting to narrow, and regardless of what we all want/wish for, this looks to be a memorable event.

by Saturday sleet might tickle dendrites behind

Rooting for the underdog GFS to pull an upset over the vaunted EURO for much less ice down there. I was in Owings for 1994 and it was awful. I've got family in Owings, Huntingtown and Leonardtown.

Game on boys! .

Eric Finkenbinder You might be hearing that Sunday's snowstorm could be the biggest in years. Keep in mind there hasn't been a 12"+ snowstorm since 2018. Here are the recent snowstorms that produced more than 6" of snow:

Comparing 18z -> 00z -> 06z I see two trends emerging, both of which may be in our favor: 1.) High pressure over New England appears to be trending west and stronger. This will absolutely help to lock in cold air. 2.) The ensembles are trying to throw more emphasis on the coastal low, which would cut off warm air intrusion and reduce the mix or sleet risk north of US 50. Let's see if these trends hold or improve today.

I wanted to sleep in this morning but my body is getting trained to these six hour intervals.

I mean for this area.

i dunno the mix is trending north by saturday it's going to tickle dendrites behind

I haven't compared the two meteorologically speaking, per se, but this system anecdotally reminds me of the 2/15/15 event for some reason.

not even a decade in the rearview, lots of clunker seasons to go before we're due again

It rained.

2.25” at my place. Stat padder that will melt away

May not end up the worst map in the world

Also waking up to NWS talking about 15 or 18 to 1 ratios with the snow initially. It’s gonna pile up fast.

Look at the temps at 700mb and 850mb. It gives a different picture of the event precip wise. Be sure to look at 96 and 102 hours.

does anyone know how accurate the NBM is?

Alot of storms back in the day use to end as sleet especially near the coast

dude....cincy and towns along the ohio rive are ground zero for big snows west of the apps. If we get 6-10 you guys are easily 12+

Maybe Feb 8th 2013. My sister sent me this from her apartment in Hamden that recorded 40 inches.