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18z skunks me into October. Under an inch for Aug and Sep combined would be pretty funny. I’m not sure CON has even done that.

Great shot

Clouds are one of the tricky variables that climate models haven't really nailed down yet. They can have cooling and warming effects.

I can recall an experiment performed on some material retrieved from the moon where it was heated intensely and vapor was liberated, captured and condensed into liquid water plenty of evidence for both terrestrial and extraterrestrial sources of the water present on the earth today : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Origin_of_water_on_Earth

Definitely, plus either way we're cooked. With more clouds we have more insulation to retain heat at night with less clouds we have more sunlight to cook the earth during the day.

Even if that's true (I have no idea) I think it's low clouds that do the best job at cooling the surface. So if we are losing low clouds that's bad if you want to keep the Earth's temp from rising further.

But with higher evaporation rates would high and mid level clouds become more common, Don?

That's a good point. Also, I wonder if there are practical ways of mining for water in the subsurface (for example below the moon's surface and under the martian surface.)

Dry, sunny, and dusty...with early color continuing.

took a ride by boat from sayreville nj friday to the western sound....was fishing by some lighthouse east of new rochelle....wind was snotty in the morning and not what we expected, but it laid down by afternoon. wound up with about 25 keeper porgies, not great but not bad, given the early winds. left the dock in nj at 6 am didn't get back til 9 pm due to the late bite; we left the sound at around 6 pm. had to go slow in the dying light through the east river and harbor. water felt a bit cold to me but it could have been the east wind cooling the surface....

given the energy required, getting enough water off the planet by overcoming gravity to make a difference doesn't seem practical, but there is water in the solar system outside the orbit of Mars tied up most notably in comets and giant planets and their moons

ya this year might be a crappy one for foliage

WB latest weeklies. Interesting to see the EURO with its warm bias showing normal temps for the last week of October.

Not a drop nor drizzle for MVY on the 12z gfs op

Here's a detailed study of cases where second half of September was warmer than first half at NYC (or to complete top 25, a few cases of least cooling). For all data, the September 1-15 mean is 70.7, the September 16-30 mean is 65.4 and the decrease is 5.3 (F deg) For 1991-2020, the corresponding values are 71.7 _____ 66.5 _____ and 5.2 F deg. The top twenty-five Septembers in terms of anomalous temperature averages from first to second half, favoring second half warmth, are as follows. Rank ____ Year ____ 1-15 ___ 16-30 ___ diff ____ rank of 2nd half _01 _____ 2017 ____ 67.7 ___ 73.3 ____ +5.6 _______2 _02 _____ 1891 ____ 70.1 ____74.1 ____ +4.0 _______ 1 _03 _____ 1946 ____ 68.7 ___70.9____ +2.2 ______ 10 _04 _____ 1895 ____ 71.1 ____72.2 ____ +1.1 _______ 4 _05 _____ 1970 ____ 70.3 ___ 71.3 ____ +0.9 *_____ 7t _06 _____ 1968 ____70.1 ___ 71.0 ____ +0.9 _______ 9 _07 _____ 1917 ____ 63.2 ___ 63.9 ____ +0.6 * _08 _____ 1870 ____ 67.9 ___ 68.4 ____ +0.5 _09 _____ 1914 ____ 66.5 ___ 66.8 _____ +0.3 _10 ______1892 ____ 64.0 ___ 64.1 _____ +0.2 * _11 ______2006 ____66.5 ___ 66.6 ____ +0.1 _12 _____ 1986 ____ 67.9 ___ 67.8 ____ - 0.1 _13 ______1926 ____ 65.9 ___ 65.5 ____ - 0.4 _14 _____ 1883 ____ 62.0 ___ 61.5 ____ - 0.5 _15 _____ 2019 ____ 70.7 ___ 70.1 ____ - 0.6 _______ 11 _16 _____ 1902 ____ 66.9 ___ 66.0 ____ - 0.9 _17t_____ 1908 ____ 69.4 ___ 68.4 ____ - 1.0 _17t_____ 1911 _____ 68.2 ___ 67.2 ____ - 1.0 _17t_____ 1933 ____ 70.0 ___ 69.0 ____ - 1.0 _20 _____ 1920 ____ 69.0 ___ 67.9 ____ - 1.1 _21t_____ 1881 _____ 73.9 ___ 72.7 ____ - 1.2 _______ 3 _21t_____ 1905 _____ 70.4 ___ 69.2 ____ -1.2 _21t_____ 2003 _____68.5 ___ 67.3 ____ - 1.2 _24 _____ 1930 _____72.6 ___ 71.3 ____ -1.3 _______ 7t _25 _____ 1965 _____ 68.1 ___ 66.8 ____ -1.4 * (2024 was fairly close to making list at -1.6 from 69.6 to 68.0) ____________ * Second decimals in data cause rounding result to be different from one-decimal differences in these cases === === Note that nine of the top eleven warmest second halves of September appear in this top 25. Exceptions were 2005 (75.2, 71.4 - rank t5th, drop 3.8) 2015 (77.5, 71.4 - rank t5th) dropped 6.2F. Also t12th place 1921 (69.7) dropped 4.8 from 74.5 F while t12th 2010 (also 69.7) dropped 2.8 from 72.5; 14th place (69.4) 1959 dropped 5.8 from 75.2. 15th place 1905 (69.2) is in the list above, 16th place 1906 (69.1) is not in list (dropped 2.4 from 71.5) and tied 17th for warmest second half is 69.0, one is in the list above (1933) and the other is 1998 which dropped 2.5 from 71.5. 19th warmest second half is 68.8 in 1985 and t20th is 68.7 in 2002 and 2021. These three all had moderate falls from warmer first halves. 1884 (68.6) and 1898 (68.5) were next in line and both fell over 4F to reach those still-very warm values. Tied 25th at 68.4 were 1870 and 1908 (in list), 2007 and 2016. There is a noticeable tendency for these warm second-half cases (whether in list or not) to be followed by several weeks of very warm weather in October, which is probably not surprising given the persistence of pattern often seen in early to mid autumn. Yet also the most conspicuous counter-example (see top ten counter-examples list below text) 1947 also was followed by a very warm October as were 1897, 1900 and 1961 in that list. 1875 stayed very cold, 1929 was generally cold in October also. A few years made this list by having a very chilly first half and a near or closer to average second half (1917, 1883 in particular) There are quite a few solid winters that followed years in this list (1917-18 and 1933-34 in particular, also 2017-18, 1892-93, 1870-71, 1968-69, 1911-12). Remains to be seen where 2025 will stack up against this top 25. The first half mean is 69.9F. An average of 69.2 by end of month will likely place 2025 in the above list. An average of 49 would be needed to get into the list below so that's not going to happen. ========== (top ten counter-examples, falling averages in Sep) _01 __ 1947 ___ 77.3 _ 59.9 __ -17.4 F _02 __ 2023 ___76.0 _62.8 __ -13.2 F _03 __ 1875 ___ 70.4 _ 57.4 __ -13.0 F _04 __ 1993 ___ 73.5 _ 61.0 __ -12.5 F _05 __ 1929 ___ 75.5 _ 63.2 __ -12.3 F _06t__ 1961 ___ 79.1 _ 67.8 __ -11.4 F * _06t__ 1996 ___ 73.7 _ 62.3 __ -11.4 F _08t__ 1897 ___ 72.6 _ 61.5 __ -11.1 F _08t__ 1915 ___ 75.5 _ 64.4 __ -11.1 F _10t__ 1900 ___ 76.3 _ 65.5 __ -10.8 F _10t__ 1983 ___ 77.2 _ 66.3 __ -10.8 F * _10t__ 1990 ___ 72.9 _ 62.1 __ -10.8 F _______ * Second decimals in data cause rounding result to be different from one-decimal differences in these cases Most of the top ten twenty first halves (above 74F) are in the above list; 2015 (77.5) and 2005 (75.1) are discussed in slight-fall cases, and other contenders with average drops are 1884 (74.9) 1898 (76.3) 1931 (76.5) 1944 (74.1) 1945 (74.7) 1971 (75.8) 1979 (74.6) 1980 (75.7) and 2016 (75.2). 1953 and 1973 with strong heat waves at start of September had first half averages close to 74F. They cooled off fairly quickly. The coldest second half of September by the way was 56.4 in 1871. The lowest value since 1980 is 61.0 (1993) followed by 61.3 in 2000.

You start to wonder if the next rain we see is in December

It’s like a desert here. I’ve never seen anything like it. Agree on the leaves…lots of early color that are mixed brown.

I don't want to get too ahead of my skis, but the EPS and GEFS have been gradually showing the basin opening back up between 92L, the wave behind it, and perhaps some subtropical/tropical development in the homebrew region.

Endless Coc!

Looking good west of the Mississippi. East naso much.

That would be fine with me. Just need to get my truck back from the shop before winter starts.

1995 is the correct year. There was an issue copying it over 0 good catch.

If 2022 really finished below 100 ACE, then this season is easily a lock for below 100 ACE. 2022 was nowhere near as dead as this season. We're halfway through September, and we're still below 40 ACE. We're probably going to finish below 80 ACE, maybe even below 70 ACE.

A friend of mine also does landscaping (I am doing that now a few years, and "hardscape"), and it is so much more work when all of a sudden you are in a desert climate, after "temperate," "Northeast Boreal," or whatever, it didn't used to matter! The COC can take a long walk off a short pier. We need precip.

Well in the long range thread they are talking about how it’s going to be another South and East winter given the ‘seasonal’ trend of the rain tomorrow and Wednesday….so there is that. Getting my snow shovel ready! Sorry about the leaky pipe!