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Thanks, dude. I always think of Ian Malcolm's quote from Jurassic Park when AI models are mentioned: Data scientists are so "preoccupied with whether or not they could, that they didn't stop to think if they should." I think they're more useful for climatological/ensemble purposes. Its resolution is too course for nowcasting, and whether people like it or not, the best real-time product we have is the HRRR (only model to update every hour not considering the RRFS). Users just need to understand its limitations... Within a few hours = good ||| outside a few hours = meh ||| beyond a PBL cycle = ignore... I've been thinking; theoretically, the ceiling for AI should be that of current NWP... I don't think it's possible to outperform the dataset its trained on, so to improve AI, you must improve NWP <OR> increase the size of your training dataset. As a result, NWP will never be phased out. :fist bump: If I remember correctly, the evaluation was conducted wrt an analysis dataset (not in-situ locations). To me, that implies they're evaluating its efficacy (can it 'hang' with a traditional modeling system?) and not its accuracy. I did this too when I compressed assimilation data and reran CMAQ simulations when I worked with the EPA. I won't trust AI until evaluations are conducted at remote sensing stations. Analysis datasets aren't entirely accurate.

I grew up in West Mifflin. Over by the Community College. That's a far drive for you.

the Pacific trough pumps the PNA... that's part of the reason why it usually torches after big storms as the jet overextends

yup. first, moisture pushing into a cold dome and then a shot at a retrograding block to end the month. can't ask for more at this range

Not great to see that trough build in so quickly over Alaska?

Charlie! Go get me two gallons of gasoline out of the shed!

I'm on board with your first few sentences. My only issue with this post is the bold portion. I'm so excited about the potential for college football parity. I've had more than my fill of seasons where Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State, and Alabama win it all. I'm sure these are fighting words, but I could go another 10 years or more before I would want to see one of those programs win it all.

I feel like that face lately

i'm just gonna leave this here

The EPS has a mean high in the single digits across the entire region towards the end of January. Wow.

Oh ok. Was told just the opposite. But whatever. Then the AI should fold soon.

Unfortunately I think they will take a big loss with this storm. Throw out the AI models for this one

The interesting thing will be this for the weekend. Now that modeling is downplaying the coastal storm...I wonder if the front itself in the Tenn Valley gets a bit more juice added back?

So he chose to venture into the cave from were the bubble were coming from..

40% at day 9 huh? That is impressive lol

We’ll take it and add to the season total.

hasn't dropped yet-was supposed to fall all day but I'm holding at 45

I think three dimensional modeling(forecasts and not radar) like an MRI is what the next big thing will be. I do fear altering weather patterns will also be a part of that matrix. There are already machines which enhance snowfall in western WY. I hope we never reach a time where we know the weather to the point that there are no surprises.

Euro on the 25th is much better than the GFS on the 28th. Mobile to Charleston to OBX with cold high pressure to the north would work! Warning level accumulations with 850 temperatures well down in the 20's and falling would rule out mixing issues. Considering this is 9 days out I will give it a 40% chance of verifying. If still populating with significance at 24 hrs, that 40% can increase to 60%.

Panthers made the playoffs, this stretch is way worse. Charlotte Hornets bad.

Whew! The new washing machine is installed and operational. Hopefully, no more laundromats for a bit! Though, I am jealous of the speed that a person can do laundry in those places. We washed and dried 6 loads in one hour! I know - Dear Facebook. Modeling continues to honk at very cold weather between the d8-12 mark. Sometimes modeling has overdone the cold at this range. But for now, some really cold temps on the 12z Euro and GEM as Jeff mentioned. Both of those models have identified cold snaps pretty well this season. For now, the day8-10 window looks good for a winter event, but you all know the rules...roughly between the 24th-27th. I do think one flaw that we need to be watchful for...cold has been oversold on modeling all winter OR completely missed. Usually the solution is a cold front, but is modified from the original version. Probably the case this time, but...every once in a while strong cold fronts are under-modeled! The TPV getting trapped looks legit. We need a wave to ride the Arctic front if that front verifies. That is the big ticket! Great discussion. I have enjoyed reading it.

At the risk of semantics...SO perhaps not "simple" but rather simplER? That is if you were to compare overruning to a phase event which is easiER? @CAPE or anybody else have thoughts on that?

I feel like a Carolina Panthers fan.

There's definitely some drifting, but I came up with 15" from several measurements. Still lightly snowing Pure powder, quite the storm!