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I think we’re in the slow weakening phase now. With the core looking disrupted and wind expanding in all quadrants and the system now experiencing some northerly shear (which its northerly motion now put it directly in the line of fire with) I expect a slow rot of intensity. Likely remains a major through midweek but I believe we’ve already witnessed our secondary peak

Not what I want to hear. Moving my daughter into ODU on Wednesday. Don’t need rain. Will be windy enough from Erin approaching

Lots of U30s

69.4/39 with full sun Yore

We are getting some clearing right after the line so there’s still a chance of storms this evening

Eye obscured, and looks to be open to the south.

SPC already trimmed the slight out of southwestern WI behind the ongoing band, so looks like they expect primary severe threat to be with that and not any redevelopment later this afternoon.

Cloudy and windy on the shore today. Ocean is choppy; not too many in the water. No rain yet...

NAM looks stout. As in beer.

fwiw... for those who need rain: 12z/18 NAM suite in particular has iso 3-6" near ABE and spotty SNE just outside our forum. 12z/18 Canadian and GFS coming up. No thread but monitoring. I think the NAM is telling us something that could happen around here but far too early, in light of model spread, to start a thread. Right now, I'll monitor WPC to see if start adding a little qpf to our NYC subforum. Yesterdays 2-5" vicinity Philly was not well handled by the SPC HREF.

Im not sure but suspect they might have seen plenty of cloud cover this month.

Some clearing slowly working its way down 73 / 58 socked in clouds but some brightening

Picked up 0.05 inches this morning, with a total now of 1.38 inches.

70/48, deep blue skies, sun.

hemp

GET IN LADS SHE JUST COOKED US SOME MORE SCRAN Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of America Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*) 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion 1215 UTC Mon Aug 18 2025 Hurricane Erin Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...ERIN STRENGTHENS... ...EXPECTED TO GROW EVEN LARGER... 11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 Location: 23.1°N 70.8°W Moving: WNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 935 mb Max sustained: 140 mph

Yeah the northerly shear is pretty apparent with the restricted outflow on the northern part of the circulation. Compare the extent of outflow on the north side to the south side, huge difference.

Nooners: 73 and cloudy. More muggy than I expected but nice out

about 24-36 hours of humid, tropical air. This upcoming weekend should feel very refreshing

IR appearance has degraded considerably in the last hour or two. Trying to complete an ERC and probably feeling more of the shear now. May gradually weaken until shear can abate

Huntington but I go to Northport Bay often. I’ve never seen a dolphin there before, that’s very cool

definitely appears that way. I'm sure we'll have a couple hot days in Sept but the days are shorter and the sun angle much lower

Where do you keep your boat? I was in Northport on Saturday and there were dolphins in the bay just outside the marina.

It does in fact appear a more northward trajectory has resumed.