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I mean this is a hybrid type storm in a transition season. Im sure it’ll be breezy at least, but I don’t think it’s crazy to envision lots of dry periods followed by quick downpours rotating through. Some areas will do well, but I wouldn’t expect like 2+ totals to be widespread

There won’t be any rain there tomorrow imo.

Gefs was id say a fairly big improvement

God this storm is annoying from a forecast perspective. Some models bring rain in here tomorrow. Others don’t until Sunday.

Here is a remarkable satellite image from Aug 23, 1974 from the C and EPAC! And it was weak La Nina.

Very warm start to october, with possible record minima.

May see it later...

NYC gonna flood with this thing right?

River East should really have one based on guidance . Watch not warning

OKX should have a high wind warning for LI and maybe even srn CT. JMHO.

The fact that there's a hook and a day or more of slow movement complicates things. Some coastal, including some of our more notable storms (and tropical systems) we've gotten have been straight thumps that pas through quickly, where the main concern is shifts left and right. But here, for this system, there's huge model variation (for being a couple of days away) in the time and location of when (or if) it will make landfall all based on potential loops, stalls, and intensity.

Mother Nature has a sense of humor, and I’m pretty sure she is trying to tell a joke to Humanity.

It’s picking-up on its convective nature to wrap-in. A LIS or RI special, while the Globals are tuned differently…. You take the middle road at this timeframe.

I share your interest in loop quantum cosmology it makes a lot of sense to have planck scale pixels of space time. It gets rid of both black hole and big bang singularities because there is no such thing as zero volume or infinite density. It makes sense with relativity too because if dimensions are emergent then gravity does not exist on the two dimensional scale according to relativity. It gets replaced by a repulsive force. What happened before that? In the case of our universe, a previous cycle of the universe. In the case of black holes a baby universe that expands inwardly. The projected image happens on the boundary of the higher dimensional black hole and is likely the result of inward falling matter and energy from the higher dimensional universe that contains it. The same thing may be happening inside spinning kerr black holes inside our own universe. That's the thing about spinning black holes they have a calm hurricane like eye ring singularity at the center and are navigable. Kipp Thorne discussed this and this was mentioned in the movie Interstellar. And you are right about the universe copying the same basic structure across various scales, it's fractal. Think of atoms, hurricanes, solar systems and galaxies. And even beyond that think of the structure of our brains. Multidisciplinary research has shown it bears a remarkable resemblance to the cosmic structure of the universe across 27 magnitudes of scale. Are we the cosmic result of the universe trying to understand itself better? Speaking of connecting the stars there is a certain Iranian physicist at the Institute of Advanced Study that has put forth an interesting theory that the universe can be described as a multidimensional crystal and where stars form can be represented by the different facets of this crystal. It reminds me of the idea of the universe being a super deterministic quantum particle with each galaxy connected to every other via quantum entanglement. These are theories that can be proven if they can accurately predict where these stars and galaxies form.

And with a high pressure of that magnitude also…that’s highly anomalous too in September.

I don’t think it will get convection near the center type deal. It will have some tropical characteristics, but this is more of a hybrid transitioning to a more classic nor’easter. These happen right into October. It’s unusual though to have something like this so early.

Noteworthy test for the Euro AI here, IMO. If this scores a coup then maybe we can trust it more.

Is there really that much tropical semblance here? Not doubting you... I just thought the upper air maps looked like kind of strictly beast mode noreaster

Well you are right, cyclogenesis is complicated by nature. But when the stakes are high, it makes it seem more complicated then it is. If that makes sense.

Comparing it to December 1992 or Sandy is utter BS though. No reason to compare it to the GOAT of noreasters though. Why do they use these silly crooked numbers? Is it because of archaic and antiquated knots? Either switch to the metric system or use actual miles. Same goes for the Saffir Simpson scale since advisories are issued in 5 mph increments anyway why is a tropical storm 39 mph and a hurricane 74 mph and some of those category thresholds are messed up too. Then you dont remember December 1992 that was the Michael Jordan of noreasters and we'll never see anything like that ever again. Three days of heavy rain hurricane force winds and parts of all five boroughs and coastal new Jersey under water and people trapped in Manhattan skyscrapers. In some ways it was worse than Sandy and was definitely worse than the March 1993 superstorm. Three feet of snow away from the coast too.

3.42 for me. Very similar to @Ernest T Bass .

That’s awful

I must commend you on your model posting. You have a good feel for what to post and when to post it. Never an overload of 47 different models and past runs. You rarely leave folks hanging with "wow the 18z" and don't post it. Job well done. Saves me from having to get off my fat ass and clicking buttons. Appreciated!