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Ah violists...always the third fiddle

I haven’t kept up in the forecasting thread. What’s the seasonal outlook for the PAC jet? Another blowtorch?

Last night was one of those nights where my locale can radiate with the best of them.

Bright moon, no wind, low of 21, coldest of the season by 4°. 0.3" ice on the washtub.

In one school of philosophy ... this is actually a good thing - "Climate change inaction costs millions of lives each year, report warns" ( https://phys.org/news/2025-11-climate-inaction-millions-year.html ) It's always been about population. Too many human beings. It's callous perhaps to put it in such terms, but reality and math and logic ...? they are dispassionately true like that. When there are 8 and some odd billion in population pumping out Industrial volatile chemistry as exhaust... it overwhelms the Earth's physical processes. If our species is going to survive by producing all that exhaust, there needs to be far fewer of us. It's interesting that we are being forced to make a choice between inaction and death, vs action when part of that action requiring less births/controlling population. Either way, less people The population correction is already begun, folks - it's just not striking everyone's streets at the same time. Some of which is happening unwittingly, by the way. It is now socially disadvantageous for younger child rearing, and in some cases .. too advantageous not to have children at all. Birthing rates have are empirically dropping at an alarming rate around the world. There's ongoing science in the matter... whether it is socio-economic, environmental, or some aspect of both ( probably both..).

Never noticed a rainfall issue. The vantage pro2 is the best because you can separate the wind and temperature. Radiation shield also much bigger on the pro2 and you can get the fan for it.

Sun is returning this afternoon with highs near normal in the upper 50's. Similar weather tomorrow before our warmest day of the week on Wednesday with temperatures into the low to mid 60's for some great Indian Summer type weather. We turn much cooler again on Thursday with highs struggling into the low 50's for most spots. Our next rain chance looks to arrive by Friday night.

Sun is returning this afternoon with highs near normal in the upper 50's. Similar weather tomorrow before our warmest day of the week on Wednesday with temperatures into the low to mid 60's for some great Indian Summer type weather. We turn much cooler again on Thursday with highs struggling into the low 50's for most spots. Our next rain chance looks to arrive by Friday night.

The @bluewaveantichrist pattern with NAO bloicking connecting with southWEST ridging lol

One search pulled up tons of pictures and posts. Not sure what you are doing on there, lol. You can also just use a google search for tons of images.

Guess we can say Auburn got Freezed out yesterday

LOL, I laughed too, but that JUST isn't right......

I hate having to deal with all the Nazi crap on X (Twitter) to find footage and imagery from Jamaica. I can't wait to see Josh's full range of footage.

It won’t back down. No it won’t… back down

This was 6z GFS for IJD

Oh no, it was wet, so it counts!! Here I woke up to clear/sunny skies and a cool/pleasant 34.4 low.

That is why I bought it from Amazon. If I can't get everything working, I can return it easier. I think that part goes outside (and I'll place it into the solar shield) and if I do it correctly, it will be synced to the console. I hope it works, but I'll let you know either way.

Let me know if you're able to sync it. And what do you do with the little handheld part? You just leave it outside in the elements? And it just gets powered by double AAs? I don't get that part.

My numbers for the month of October 2025. Averaged high was 66.1 degrees vs a normal of 66.9 degrees, -0.8 degrees below average. The warmest day was the 7th with a 79.4 degree reading. Averaged low for the month was 41.5 degrees vs a normal of 41.5 degrees, a perfect match. The coldest temp recorded was 29.0 degrees on the 26th. Overall averaged temp was 53.8 degrees vs a normal of 54.2 degrees, -0.4 degrees below average. Total rainfall was 2.19 inches vs a normal of 2.70 inches, -0.51 inches below average. The wettest day was the 30th with 0.93 inches falling. There were 8 days with measurable, 3 days with a 'T' and 20 dry days. Highest wind recorded was on the 20th at 38 mph. No new records for the month. Overall, a fairly average October. Rainfall barely broke into 80 percent of average, only because 82% of the 2.19 inches fell on two days, the 8th and 30th, rest of month was quite dry.

2024, sure.....this won't be like December 2023. It's not going to be that mild.

Well 12z GFS did not really back down. But as a reference for what is being discussed, here is a point-and-click sounding from within northeast Connecticut. That is a very well mixed lowest 1km (nearly dry adiabatic) with 50+ knot winds at 850mb. Very dry below the 850mb level too which would further enhance downward momentum.

Speaking of Conus troughs: After having a few chilly runs in late Oct in the E US for the period around Veteran’s Day and then backing off to mild, the model consensus since Nov 1st has gotten much colder for then with the last few runs being the coldest yet! Check out this EPS progression for 0Z on Nov 9th from the 0Z 10/30 run through the 0Z 11/3 run: check out the big rise in Greenland heights along with the increased +PNA intensity: this shows that models out 10 days were clueless!

I feel like we can start off with the base state when making predictions for early winter. Until that PacJet slows down and we can get bigger troughs moving into CONUS, I think early winter would be quite muted across CONUS similar to the very inactive (in the winter weather department) December 2023 and December 2024 and some of those same problems trickled down through the rest of those winters.

The ACCESS BOM from Australia when I checked yesterday argued it does not really make it heavily into 7 and definitely not 8. I have found that model sometimes is better than the EPS/GEFS for the MJO in the longer range

Seems like deja vu where you have a storm track that looks somewhat promising in the 7-10 day range that shifts north with time and ends up traversing the Lakes to NNE/Southern Ontario. Meh.