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John, who the hell are you to tell me, or anybody, anything? And you’re right about what John? Not much. The doomsday crap you spew? Keep believing that total BS. I said what I feel, and what I believed in. I asked to take it to the proper thread. And you insulted me. I’m what’s wrong with humanity? You are complete pompous wingnut! No, you’re what’s wrong with this whole dam country. But don’t worry…your ideas are going away, and fast. and Thank goodness. And Don’t worry, we won’t have to reply to each other again. That’s the beauty of a forum.

Always looks good a half dozen days out

Nothing will happen

42.5° Light Rain

18z GFS ensembles has a strong -NAO through the whole run.. we haven't seen something like that in a while.. we've had -NAO's but they've had problems sustaining. GEFS says 15 days and going, which is a good trend! It doesn't rapidly switch back to positive at the end of the run right now. At 84hr we have <-360dm 500mb going through PA/MD/VA. That's a big negative anomaly!

All hell has broken loose . The left has become extremely violent . Everyone stay safe

No, but you must be. I did not insult you one bit. But you insulted me. Just because I don’t believe what you do. And that’s the whole point here. When somebody pushes back against a science that keeps changing every 5-10 yrs, then I guess we need to be insulted. And told we don’t know our asses from a hole in the ground. Cuz some of us don’t buy in to everything that is supposedly mainstream. Or we are told that we don’t understand… All I asked was to take this to the proper thread. But here we are.

The 18z GFS has finally started to trend toward the Euro and Canadian at bringing the PV lobe farther southwest. Maybe this increases the chances for conversational flurries on Monday, 11/10?

The classless classist strikes again. What a douche.

And you’re an ignoramus worse yet you’re an ignoramus masquerading as righteousness when you’re not fucking right about anything. you’re completely in the wrong on this and your abstinence in even trying to understand global warming is what’s actually reprehensible. And I’m through with it. I’m sick of it. I’m tired of you and people like you and it’s time to pull you guys and make an example I don’t care what you think of me for having said this; the truth needs to be said You and people like you are a problem for humanity. you’ve been told in flat undeniable logic, and you still can’t penetrate your mind Don’t respond to me ever again put me on ignore and just shut the fuck up you ignorant asshole

24-25 was the coldest Winter since 14-15. Something similar to last year is possible this year, as lot of the same conditions are reoccurring. We had 2 favorable patterns in 22-23, in December and March. 6/7 times out of 10, those patterns would deliver a SECS. It just didn't happen that way that year - a repeat of 22-23 though may not be as bad as you would think. Jan and Feb were really warm that Winter though: +QBO coupled with La Nina to have a strong 10mb vortex in 22-23.. we have a -QBO this Winter, and the long range Euro ensembles are already looking like they want to do a Stratosphere warming in a few weeks (which would correlate with -AO late Dec into early Jan (about 70% likely)).

Are you F’n serious John? You come across like a total asswipe on here to be honest! Your diatribes are barely understandable…with your various monster words, that nobody understands. And you’re going to insult me, and say I don’t know my ass from a hole in the ground? You’re Laughable bro. You’re a doomsday proclaimer, that is not connected to reality one bit. You are exactly what’s wrong with CC. People like you, and silly Bill Gates, and that fool Al Gore, and the other moron John Carey…are complete BS artists. The only difference is that you seem to buy into the ridiculous doomsday CRAP! How stupid can somebody be? Oh wait…I guess that’s what somebody who doesn’t know their ass from a hole in the ground believes. You are LAUGHABLE.

Rain heading through Reading and on my doorstep. Drought guy is probably so damn excited he can't even sleep... 56F

it seems like we've narrowed in closer towards a more unified consensus. two questions: is a dead ratter like 22-23 off the table, and is the ceiling higher than 24-25?

Cocked?

I'm ready for winter and mountains of snow!

LFG

Shade's of some 1960's Winter's.

Be nice if that came along and hooked up with an Arctic Front

Hmmmm

Yeah, the Nina is weak sauce right now. Going back to June 2023, 21/29 months have been +PNA (CPC). It's surprising because we've had 2 "most negative monthly PDO on record" periods during that time, and the last 15 months have been cool ENSO.. but tracking 500mb all the time, the -PNA tendency has not been the same since the 23-24 Strong Nino -- it was happening all the time before then, now it's not sustaining more than a short period of time. It would have to kind of come out of nowhere to be a -PNA Winter this year, possible, but not as likely as the 2017-2023 period. Precip is definitely not a El Nino STJ right now, but I don't see why we can't have storms track across the Tenn valley and then into the Mid Atlantic this Winter. I think there is a -AO tendency with negative SLP 60-90N over the warm season (strong Summer -> Winter correlation since 2012) this year. Lots of cold H5 across the N. Hemisphere this year too, including the lowest 500mb reading on record for August this last August. 2020-2023 was not cold at H5 in the Northern Hemisphere at all. The strongest leading correlation I've found to Winter cold/snow is preceding year total H5 cold across the N. Hemisphere.

So far it looks like the "nina" is weak sauce so I'm not really expecting classic nina climo dominating door to door. I think other variables like the ao/epo/nao will have more influence on our sensible wx and I wouldn't be surprised if there is split flow at times. Im really liking early ao/nao signs right now. I'm still feeling mediocre about snowfall but that comes with the territory and we're pretty much always northern stream dominant in all enso phases except for ninos. However, get a -2sd ao/nao going and it opens the door for a hybrid storm that passes underneath us. Those can work here but not without anomalous blocking. Its been so long since we've had an extended blocking period that we all expect it to not happen lol but I'm feeling unusually optimistic about it until further notice

First flakes on the way for Sun night for this area. If tomorrow's wave were more potent (or it was a few weeks later) we'd have a nice little snow system.

I don’t insult anyone.

42 at 7:04am, 73 at 1:30pm.