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Well reviewed. I can’t quibble. Main thing for favorable decent event is a southern short wave separation from northern Jet, eventually shoving northeast. That option is still there if it’s weak then not so good for rain. WPC starting to show rainfall D7 and CPC with new 6-10 D outlooks etc around 3-4p

I can't remember the last time I had my windows open for four or five days in a row in August in the mid Atlantic... ever. The last time was probably when I lived in NW NJ in the 1990s (where a typical summer day would be like this and I lived largely without A/C).

We're going to get a lot of snow soon. Maybe it'll be this winter. Maybe it'll be the next. I don't know how we're going to get it. I don't know when we're going to get it. But I'm sure of two things--we're going to get hammered sometime soon. And we're going to love it.

Walt (or others) - would be interested in your take on 9/6 in the SNJ area adjacent to Philly, as our son is getting married there that day and hoping to do an outdoor ceremony (it's at a working farm) followed by an "upscale barn" reception. Not too worried about rain, as there is an enclosed space next to the barn if it rains, but would love it to not be hot and humid. Right now the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC forecasts look like normal to maybe a bit below normal in temps, but normal to above normal in precip. Obviously, those aren't predictions for a specific day, but I am happy to see no major heatwaves on the horizon and the last few deterministic model runs (GFS/Euor/CMC at least) show some significant rainfall on 9/4-5 clearing out for 9/6 with seasonable or below temps, but 9 days out we all know that that timing can change, but all things being equal, I'll take it for now. TIA.

made a poll

Oh great! RIP October lol. I can almost see the heat dome building from here.

National low was 31 near Davis, WV........Bradford hit 35. Damn.

One of mine has bad blight at the base. I need to mudpack it or cut it down. I posted some pics in this thread. Have you had flowers yet?

I'm not so sure I'd be looking at solar at this point. True, there's been a big jump in activity the last day or 2, but that's after a big drop. The overall trend is down looking at everything at the link below. Plus, it's too early. If we're rolling ahead hot and heavy come November, imho, then we take a 2nd look at possible curveballs to the forecast. https://solen.info/solar/index.html

I would prefer to run it back with a more neutral WPO.

Last year is not a perfect analog, but it is variable IMO...it's one of my primary analogs.

It’s weird how they do it with the COOPs. The daily data gets entered in for the day at the time it’s reported…so 12z. So all of those COOP highs temps from the hot day on 6/24 get listed as occurring on 6/25. I know they want consistency, but I hate it.

Nice catch. Weird how the nowdata apparently reports it from the previous day.

Little warner and less snowy than last year Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

We should fall around 73.4 (based on some rough estimates), which would put us just outside the top 5. What is really impressive is the next lowest of this century is 2013 at 24.7, which ranks 22nd. We did it mostly through high temperatures remaining lower, with no particularly anomalous lows. That's the way to do August!

Gotta subtract out that 7/31 data. Belchertown had 1.91” and Amherst 1.42”.

I’m not saying the QBO is unfavorable at all. As to solar, yes, I’d agree that solar is similar. Both sunspot and solar flux numbers are back up over 200. And it looks like we are about to have a big uptick in geomag activity

What a boring decade.

Brian, do you remember? We got these Chestnut tree saplings when they were like 10" tall. How many years ago was that? I have several growing, but I should have planted them closer for pollination when they get bigger.

china ftw

although I didn't like the results, I would run the 500mb pattern back in a heartbeat. that winter was a clinic on how to get the least amount of snow with favorable 500mb patterns

looking at RONI, the MJJ this year is -0.4 and last year it was -0.45. i also don't take the N ATL SSTs into account all that much, I find correlations with our weather pretty weak. even though the heatwave near Japan is stronger, the SSTs off the WC are also higher, so the PDO is about the same. if anything, it was more consistently under -3 last year overall, I think there are a lot of big picture similarities. I don't like to get too granular with LR forecasting

Followup on AEW coming off Africa as early as tomorrow: 12Z UKMET: has a TS that is already recurving before 40W: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 15.3N 32.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.09.2025 144 16.0N 33.0W 1010 37 0000UTC 04.09.2025 156 16.9N 35.4W 1010 40 1200UTC 04.09.2025 168 18.6N 37.0W 1010 38

QBO is not unfavorable this year and La Niña is still going to be weak. This seems like splitting hairs to me...and believe me, I want a repeat of last winter like a hole in the head.