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1887-88 is ahead mainly because it was several degrees colder through January even as it had slightly less snowfall than the current winter.

The Blend hasn't really changed much. Less than an inch continues to be the smart forecast. Maybe less than a half inch lol.

Yes, it will moderate around mid-month, I think that's been advertised for a bit now so no real surprise. Also, keep in mind that mid-February max temperatures (looking at DCA) are pushing the upper 40s around that time period. So getting into the 50s for a few or several days isn't exactly unusual or "winter cancel" territory. Keep in mind, by the end of this upcoming weekend we will have had one of the most extreme and consistent cold spells in a long time, which will have lasted around 2 full weeks straight. I think some perspective is lost with a bit of freaking out over a relaxing pattern simply because we've had such a prolonged period of very cold and well below freezing. And if/when it turns colder and more favorable again, don't expect that we'll have the same level of cold at that point as what we've just experienced. But we don't have it be that cold to score well the latter part of February and early March. And despite what some on here feel, I personally don't mind a good snow event or two even in late February or March; who cares if it doesn't linger for a long time by that point, climatologically speaking.

Got some yore coming. -33 850 s match the wind chills

Ray has done an awesome job so far. Statistically, a cold March seems less likely, but it's still in play. I think March's outcome depends on whether the modeled SSWE can occur and, if so, whether it can propagate in a favorable fashion. If not, even if March starts cool, things could quickly break to the warm side. New England would probably hold onto the cold longer than the Mid-Atlantic. A strong EPO-/AO- pattern would probably be needed to deliver a 2018-style outcome. At this stage, the WPO becomes less important due to the shorter wave lengths.

With historic cold for 10+ days, its a damn shame we cant get a warning criteria pure snow event. Eastern NC can though! Thems the breaks.

28.5° for a high. The streak continues.

My ice dam finally melted today. It’s like the Riviera out there!

Thats a shame. Chances of snow on snow are now gone. I know its rare. But it seemed like we really had an opportunity with all this cold.

Nah I’m with you and also in Charlotte. We need a break, so we thaw enough to make it out on the road again. Two storms back to back along with a possible third, and that’s the definition of too much of a good thing. I wouldn’t mind to be in the screw zone this time like we usually are.

It’s funny because this upcoming possibility was showing on models last Wednesday or Thursday, then sort of declined over the next couple of days, only to come back yesterday

We’re in a time where an inch is a win. I hate this hobby and I’m clearly bitter

We should remove “weak” from the thread title

Good trends on 500 mb energy. Almost went neutral this run.

Please melt it all away. It’s nasty looking now.

I mean all said and done as modeled this will end up a solid month block of below normal to very below normal, in the heart of winter. We only capitalized on one major storm but it was a good storm, surprisingly for all despite concerns about NYC / CNJ to me. This next arctic blast looks intense and I’m going to enjoy it one last time, get our fireplace going and make hot chocolate with my wife from scratch. If after we go fully mild through the last two weeks of Feb, nobody can say this wasn’t a fascinating winter that altered the crappy tempo of the 2020’s. I got my money’s worth even if it wasn’t a prolific snowfall season. Still chipping my parents out of their encased ice palace in Seaside too, lol - I’m going to need an oil change and 120k service on my body soon.

Finally got a good Snow storm after last year’s heartbreak in CLT. I guess if it ever snows in November here it means you’re gonna get 11 inches storm in Jan or February. I can’t wait for the next big dog snow storm in 15 years.

Even if it doesn't snow again, this winter has passed 56 other winters for total snowfall (at 21.1" NYC). If it snows 3 more inches it will pass another eleven. If it snows another 6" it will pass a total of 80 (of 158) and be close to passing several more. My stats include a higher value for 1868-69 than just the snow measured Jan 1 to Apr 1869 as Dec 1868 was a cold month with coastal lows indicated on weather charts, so I assumed that winter made it to around 35" ... the median value for all winters is a bit lower than the mean by about one inch. Don could confirm this but I believe this winter could be ahead of 1887-88 at this point of the winter severity index. It probably will stay ahead for a while but I don't like its chances during March.

Obviously very early, but what are your thoughts on March Don? I really hate to disagree with Ray because him and I have basically agreed on almost everything since November, but as of right now, I just don’t see more solidly below normal cold for March, which would make it 5 months in a row. While I’m certainly on board for a colder than normal February, as of today, I just don’t see a persistent cold onslaught into the east for a 5th month in a row (March)….we are extremely lucky to have seen the last 4 months do that during a -ENSO/Nina in this new climate era. The last -ENSO/Nina winter that did it was 30 years ago (1995-96). To be clear, I’m NOT suggesting it isn’t possible. What say you?

27.5 here

Honestly wouldn't rule that out at some point during the month, based on recent trends.

Somewhere under that ice is my oyster farm. Hope they are sleeping well. .

The AI models have performed really well this winter IMO, especially synoptically. They vary run-to-run a lot less than their parent physics-based models. It's becoming less likely for a surprise snowstorm to appear inside 7 days. That's a good thing for forecast accuracy, but a discouraging thing when the forecast looks unfavorable.

Im gonna be on an island, but i HOPE this next minor event trends NW away from Charlotte so 85 north over to Wake get the snow and CLT just rains. I need a break. Run it back in two weeks.

Temperatures have begun to moderate. In New York City, the temperature broke above freezing for the first time since January 23. That was the longest such stretch since Winter 2017-2018. Tomorrow and Wednesday will likely see highs in the lower to perhaps middle 30s. A few flurries are possible on Wednesday as a weak system drags a cold front across the region. Colder air will then return on Thursday. An even stronger surge of Arctic air could arrive for the weekend, possibly accompanied by some snow flurries or snow showers. The persistent and often severely cold pattern could break near February 10th. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +24.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.066 today.