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Yes the last few runs the GFS develops a cap in MID TN Into the east,but we'll see soon enough how strong that cap actually is as the, LLJ kicks something like 35-45 kts,that cap might not materialize as shown.Might be picking shit from cherry blossoms other wise with severe..lol On the other hand the last few runs could be a better severe threat even early Wed,maybe nocturnal if the shortwave around the MO/Valley is real what the Euro is showing

Ominous clouds to the west of the Fairfax Courthouse. Radar unclear if the rain will hit or miss.

@Herb@MAWS, @Scraff, and I were winners. 0.3”+

O’s game moved to noon tomorrow. I’m sure this will anger the rain gods.

I’m a loser. Just a couple of hundredths.

Weeds absolutely exploded the last 5 days. Third gras cut of the day today too. Fly to Austin tomorrow for a very short 36 hour trip. 93 there Sunday.

My forecast for tomorrow just keeps getting colder and colder... Saturday Showers. High near 44. East wind 6 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%

Temp has dropped 20F with these showers. 61 now

https://x.com/NickKrasz_Wx/status/2047770770005529075?s=20

M0.6" Lisbon mesonet site.

Yeah some of the short term models had been pinpointing that pretty well the last day or two.

An example of analogs working: March +NAO was top 2/900. When rolled forward to May, it is surprisingly cool, and this is the idea being adopted by CPC going forward Pre El Nino May: Nice combo of the two: warm in PNW. Cool elsewhere.

An impressively warm April.

Gonna get round 2

Continuing to look like the roll forward March +NAO composite.. when you have something so strong as top 2/900, it does have validity

Congrats Anthony, sorry the weather sucks. We had one of my daughters in May 2005, when we were stuck in the wheel of Rhea up here. After the baptism I was grilling on the deck while my late dad held the massive outside table umbrella over me, just a horrific weekend. You will still enjoy, it is all good.

0.35” here nice gusty thunderstorm sun back out.

it's spotty, 0.04" here

0.37” in about 30 mins.

Boston also regularly gets 40"+ per winter. That's their cost for the good winters. GFS looks generally putrid for the remainder of the month into May with blocky wet nastiness. Hope people are enjoying today.

One of the unusual aspects of this area is that the more urban areas actually develop and keep a snowpack longer because the buildings and houses stop the wind both from blowing it away and the wind from melting it during warmer periods. Of course the ditches will often be the one spot that has deep snow all winter. The snow lasted in the ditches this year until April.

Yes I am. Three grandkids. One 18, one 16, and one 12.

I'm surprised to see this intensity and this widespread of a thunderstorm event. There's lots of lightning crashing all around here in the lowlands. Bring on the rain. We need it.