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If I had to guess our horrible lapse rates are doing something. We are sitting around 5.5 ml lapse rates which nearly puts us to a stable atmosphere.

Not surprised they took the numbers down. You can already see how hostile things are out there as a whole and with an intensifying Nino things aren't likely to change. That said, as we get closer to the climatological peak there will be windows that open, probably say out in the subtropics, closer to the U.S. in the central/northern Gulf and SE coast where a front gets hung up, or later in the peak season where CAG season opens up again in the NW Caribbean and Gulf. Other than that it may be historically hostile in the tropical Atlantic even though the peak.

You have to be concerned. Drygust and Steintember to get through

Saturday 2% seems about right. Modest flow is forecast in the upper levels. It's not really backed, but a cooking outflow boundary can take care of the low levels. See how much sun comes out between rounds. Otherwise, summer clusters with some organization and straight wind seems reasonable.

0.59" here in Carlisle this afternoon. Moderate to occasionally heavy rain in two bursts from 3:00 to 3:45 dropped 0.31". This was followed by a lull for 30 minutes, then light to moderate between 4:15 and 5:30 dropped 0.28". Was very fortunate to have not lost power from either day over the weekend. Saturday I escaped the worst. Sunday was a different story experiencing a severe thunderstorm (warned by NWS about 10 minutes earlier) with 60-70 mph gusts and a large tree branch broke off and crashed into the roof of my shed, basically destroying it. Some patio furniture got soaked, but nothing was damaged.

The last time the city entered critical drought restrictions was in July 2024, when the Manchester Reservoir lost 7 feet of water over seven weeks amid drought conditions. Critical restrictions remained in effect for months afterward. Initially, officials believed the drought caused the severe water loss. It was later determined the loss stemmed from a valve connecting Orr’s Pond and Manchester Reservoir — Attleboro’s two main drinking water sources — that had been left open longer and wider than it should have been. The valve was open for nearly two months.

Weeks and weeks of Steined

Yeah, towers went up along the northward-moving boundary but failed. Something is hostile to development, as shown by the complete collapse of the storms moving south out of PA

MVY has had more convection than most of SNE.

Nada

0.57” of beautiful rain brings MTD to 4.63”

When you say how is the defense this bad and we're on the 3rd set of hitting coaches in 4 years , it definitely sounds like it the players and the person who chose said players .

Impressive fail.

Like the fact we had 0.15" with our FFW? Beautiful day, sunshine after lunch and temps in the low 70s. Near perfect day for mid summer.

congrats EWB, MVY, FMH

I bet you the strength of the trade anomaly is going to be offset for those temperatures - in other words somewhat anti-correlated. Not enough of an anomaly to support that. Just a hunch. I’ve long been harboring the notion that this El Niño is entering into a synergistic feedback with the background - possibly for the first time in human history are we seeing something like this at this kind of a scale? And I’m not sure we can use that to cast dystopian outlook on the winter either. It’s almost like if everything is warm, the gradient aren’t sufficient to generate the restoring to make it wild. Oh, I’m sure it’ll be one blizzard too formulate an argument against. But over the total winter? The motif … I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s just mild and boring.

Just some brief wind and moderate rain. Not too much to report here. Maybe further south it was worse.

Once again high of 98 after a low of 78. Strong storms to our west and northwest. Will they hold together?

Maybe, but right now, I’m going to need some convincing that WPC was justified in issuing an MPD for our area

.01" here. fn pathetic

They’re about to collide. Can we get lucky?

Visually from Howard County, cells are trying to go up on that outflow boundary moving north out of DC

Where the boundaries collide will be interesting

Everyone ok?? Thats a mean looking storm to my south .