All Activity

UK goes neutral at 66,negative tilt at 72.Big hit.

I have good news! My snow blower self-propelled cable broke less than 1/2 way into clearing my 1/8th of mile driveway during this past storm and the replacement part doesn't arrive until next week. This thing can't miss! :-) You guys are welcome!

GEFS looked good. UK looked better but extremely sharp cutoff. 10” in VB. None in NN

Well, it's up to the Euro now. A day or two ago it was the GFS against the world. Will it now be the Euro against the world? If the Euro caves, it may be time to move on to the next threat.

Don't care what the power bill is, I’ll gladly pay my winter dues in this pattern.

Ukie only went 700 miles n/w since 12z

Can I go to bed now? Danggg

It hasent snowed here in February since 2015

18-1 ratios on that. Insane. Rdu gets 1” qpf and the bullseye got 1.5”

Hahahah. A 968 scooting East at light speed. This doesnt make sense.

Now can we throw the NAM out? lol.

Brings 0.6” qpf into CLT

UK with 2' SE of Raleigh

RIC went from 1.9” at 18z to 8.9” at 00z on the gfs. Not saying it’s correct but the precipitation field did expanded northward.

UKMET Total QPF

Sorry buddy. It doesn't work like that every winter. We have had endless and endless warm winters recently and we are way way overdue for a cold winter like this one. It will be back to warm weather soon enough.

I'll wait for the 00z euro to say so. 00z UKMET is a vast improvement FWIW, but it went from completely ots to OBX blizzard

UK a Monster HiT!!

Too expensive, I switched to tequila

UK

So nice to have the sunset time approaching 5:15pm now. Sitting at just about 31 inches for this season, not bad at all. I don't know my seasonal average, but I would assume around 40ish maybe? @rgwp96Any idea? Also, this is a pretty legit cold snap. Low single digits every night here right through the weekend. Next week looks to "warm" a bit as we have a chance at seeing above freezing again.

Its all gonna come down to how well the ULL can reign in any front-running energy ahead of it. The more compact the system is in the upper-levels, the more consolidated it will be at the surface and the further north it will get before eventually pinwheeling northeast these runs that end up going SE, you can see how the heights east of the storm "open up", so to speak, and fail to wrap back into the system. This is the energy spawning those secondary areas of low pressure, which prevents the system from consolidating, and also resulting in less moisture transport to the main low resulting in paltry precip on the northwestern side of the coastal. It can be seen quite clearly at 500mb vorticity at the hr 90/78 timestamps of the 12z/00z runs of the CMC.

And that is why you are a chain smoker now...? Er... Nvm.

Incoherence with those two model runs.