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The RGEM is usually money. The GEM is biased cold. The RGEM is usually a strong model for this are, and my favorite. 3k NAM is a close second.

Yup. Well this has been a fun 18z suite

You only need about 3” to cover most grass blades and be in “looks like winter” territory.

Shoot, sorry everyone. Not sure why pivotal defaulted to showing the old run when I clicked, but the 18z RRFS was a lot messier about 8-9 hours of snow and then 8-9 hours of IP/ZR. Ugh. Don’t like the direction this and the NAM went at all

Then we all rip with freezing rain on the icon... 700-900mb blasted

Would love to see a picture of that when its occuring

18z ICON is one hell of an ice storm South of I-80. Plain rain on the Jersey coast up to about Tom’s River.

Would obviously take it as it lies (feel like I've said that a lot today) but a tick north on the ICON, too. Wrong direction.

I am wrong to say the RGEM is usually a colder (biased) model? It just surprises me that it has continuously ticked S. Is it slower, colder, south? All of the above? Don't get me wrong, I'm don't see su dodging the ice bullet completely, but it does look like the HP is bullying things a bit.

Looks like early 18z guidance has a stronger SLP which could be the reason for the warmer solutions popping up.

NGL its a pretty big step north with its totals.

I know no one will care in here but the DGZ Sunday night here in NW VT for the storm is from 15K ft all the way to the surface on the GFS and up to 20K on the NAM producing large aggregates and a 20-25:1 snow ratio. Incredible. It will be interesting to see how a northern airport (BTV) does for my flight down to DC on Monday. What could possibly go wrong?

As @Holston_River_Ramblernoted, you have to watch the first part of the storm. If everything is colder and south, that tells us something. We need to start watching numbers for verification purposes. The 18z RFSS has ice to the Ohio River. The 18z 3k NAM(which has been good for E TN forecast purposes) has the ice several counties south of the Ohio River. BIG differences in short range models. The interesting thing is how much precip gets out in front of this? Do we get a lot of virga or does this go from the jump? Houston, what were your ideas on the southward verification?

EE rule ftL still, 9 hours of snow followed by 11 hours of sleet will still be impressive and impactful. *note to self: wait until 850-700mb layers can be accurately modeled

Ummm, just NO. The models and forecasters are absolutely NOT ignoring the strong Arctic high. As others said above, even with a very strong high anchored, the dynamics counteract that at least to some extent. Not saying the NAM or RRFS is or will be right, but it's not like as depicted the strong high is "ignored." Likewise, forecasters are certainly not blowing it off either. This is a mid-level layer issue and still uncertain exactly how that will evolve or how much.

yup throw the nam out, throw the euro out, throw the eukie out......the thing is the gfs has been on an island the whole time and even with that is showing signs of a cave

Thanks Brett…

Fwiw, 18z ICON would be 6-10" before flip for most

ICON does not look like it’s gonna bring good vibes. Consolidated vort and heights higher at 42 compared to 12z.

I think we should feel better knowing this was a synoptic scale shift instead of a thermal driven one. Less likely it seems for a dynamics model to beat out the Euro and Gfs on the large scale picture.

Everyone knows its been trending north. Some people should step away and take a break.

I think 4-8" is the right forecast now till you get to 25+ miles north and west of the city.

Look at that nose

Looks to me like the ICON is holding the primary longer and stronger through 48hrs