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WB 0Z EPS keeps it cool through mid May. Next long range rain chance toward the end of next week.

WB 0Z EPS keeps Saturday system to the south.

WB 9Z NBM for Wed.

I know the guy from Scituate showed those trees, but leaf out processing nicely here. Need to mow.

Wow, nice rain events within days of each other, feel like we won the lottery

2009 was the last average temperature summer in Philly against the 1951-2000 mean. This was the first slightly cooler winter in Philly since 2015-2016. So it’s pretty representative of the wider trends across the region and nation.

Wow impressive #5!

The map I posted above updated- I guess its linked. It looks less impressive for tomorrow than when I posted it.

Back from Sanibel. Meh to mass lol. Went to Fort Myers beach before our flight home last evening to kill time. They are definitely slower to recover vs Sanibel. There were a lot of lots that you could tell were wiped clean and not rebuilt. A few dilapidated structures still remaining as well. Sad to see on such a nice beach. Real estate is still really high priced as well which surprised me. I thought it would be a little cheaper, but I guess not.

lol at the LIV golf debacle, love to see it. Reports are they are now postponing a tournament in Louisiana in June.

https://phys.org/news/2026-04-unprecedented-antarctic-dead-winter-decades.html (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-026-01392-x)

30.9 at KFOK and 45 here in Lynbrook. Same island extreme differences in radiational cooling. .

Interesting.... morning day 2 from SPC ..Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic... Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective potential for this period. Remnant convective cloud cover and rain overspreading the region early in the day may also impede destabilization. However, with at least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet could become conducive to organized severe storm development. This may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.

Min 37.8F lol at BTV this morning

PHL Summers since 2010 Below 1981-2010 average (75.9) 2014 (75.7) 2023 (75.8, although JAS averaged 76.1, which is above the 1981-2010 average) Above 1981-2010 average, but below 1991-2020 average (76.7) 2013 (76.6) 2017 (76.4) Currently, the 2001-present average is 77.2, which would put 2018 (76.9) below it. Depending on how warm the summers of 2026-2030 are, last summer (77.4) could end up below the 2001-2030 average.

Lots of wrecks also this morning.

Models underperformed on the line this morning. Very impressive rainfall.

I like to rely more on the ECMWF Nino plumes model than the CFS but we only get one update a month. My guess is that it will show another increase in ONI with the May 5th release as it initializes the current near record OHC for so early in the season. It may be that the Nino 1+2 regions not fully cooling off from the last very strong event in 2023-2024 could have something to do with the El Niño coming on so strong with only a 3 year gap between events. Notice that 2025 was the first full year following an El Niño so strong that stayed warm off of South America. Go back to the previous higher end events since the early 1970s and you will see they all significantly cooled compared to what happened in 2025. Also note how much warmer the entire North Pacific remained.

Just as I suspected. All the precip north of ATL.

41 when I left the house. A lot of classic coolish spring type days ahead. Love it.

Yeah just threw down the seed right before the soaking rain over the weekend. Guess we’ll see.

2 hours of vivid lightning and thunder. Only 0.25” of rain. I bet this has started fires.

The climate has had three shifts to the warmer since 2009-2010. Our summers became warmer beginning with the 2010 summer. We haven’t had any cooler summers against the long term average like in 2009 or earlier since then which we would normally get every several years. The only three cooler summers since then against the recent much warmer means like 2023, 2017, and 2014 have been closer to or a little warmer than the older long term average. Most of the summers since then have been near the top rankings for warmth. Starting with December 2015, the U.S. winters have become much warmer to the point where we have seen many new top warmest winters for the CONUS and no significantly colder ones since then. The most recent temperature jump in 2023-2024 produced the #1 warmest CONUS winter on record that winter and the #2 warmest winter this year in 2025-2026. The concern going forward is that we will get another baseline temperature jump with this developing very strong El Niño for 2026-2027 that will just add to the previous ones since 2015-2016. I can fully understand your point of view that the climate has not rapidly changed. Since it’s human nature to normalize the recent 3-7 of weather as nothing unusual. Plus it may not be that obvious when we get used to more Mid-Atlantic style temperatures like used to be normal for VA.

This was an extremely violent storm through here. I'm exhausted. Part 2 tonight. I'm thinking I won't have my phone near me. The alerts were insane. I'm one tired old lady. :-/

40.8F for the morning low. .