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After a balmy high of 58 this afternoon, the Triad has crashed down into the 20s with a ferocious wind

Like a PRE in a tropical set up?

Ok peeps DT from wxrisk. Just posted this on Facebook.. he must see something lol FWIW!!! Here's what he said... "If You Like Cold & Snow on the East Coast you REALLY Need to Get The NEXT 3 WEEKS Newsletter !" I'm taking it with a grain of salt.. lol

11 with light snow and LOTS of wind in Wolf. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

15 degrees with SN. Looking at the deck and you’d think it wasn’t snowing because the wind is blowing it all over but it looks like a snow globe. Gusts to the 40s right now.

Yeah. It was a very odd year for spinups.

December 2025 is likely to be the lowest Winter month NAO (DJFM) since Dec 2010! 15 years! With -NAO projected for the start of Jan, it's also looking more likely that we'll have the lowest -NAO Winter (DJFM) since 10-11. We need to beat -0.24 Winter average for that to happen.

I've found that deep 500mb patterns are reversing year-to-year, at a much greater rate than random, 8x more likely to be a pattern than random. Jan 15 - Feb 5 last year had a +200dm Aleutian/GOA ridge. I was saying in the Summer, that period, Jan 15-Feb 5 could have a negative anomaly in that position.

Both Feb 2013 and Jan 2015 were modeled to have some sort of stall and loop. While the stalls never materialized, even if they took place the 50” spots would be extremely localized. You’d need to maximize both the initial extreme banding (i.e what was over CT in Feb ‘13) and a CCB type element of the storm, and THEN cash in on the stall via some sort of deformation or decaying mid level banding training over a thin slice of longitude amid what would likely be a shredded occluded mess of a precip shield. Like Will said, for a storm with more widespread biblical totals you’d need a predecessor phase of the event like the overrunnning he mentioned.

periodic flurries here in Staunton (headed back to DC tomorrow) - cold.

Good question I’m not entirely sure how they are made, combination of radar estimate and ground reports possibly. There were plenty of 6-7” reports around the metro that this map doesn’t reflect.

BWI 10 consecutive hours gusts 35*. Rough drive down 95 south last hour

In this day and age, I will gladly take any snowfall and be happy. I am not getting any younger. LOL However snowfall brings the kid out in me.

Although I didn’t live in New England at the time, I actually stayed up here during the Feb 2013 storm, not so far from where I’m now located. And I could’ve sworn the snow was supposed to last until midday, but I remember it ending early morning, maybe mid morning at the latest. Can’t complaint though, it was around 27” or so. I think there’s a reason why Feb 1978 is considered one of a kind… you got 50” totals in northern RI. That kind of thing just doesn’t happen in non-LES, non-alpine areas. I think March 2001 was also expected to do the loop between NJ and SNE and bring some astonishing totals to a few lucky spots.

More bark than bite here. Just some light snow blowing in the breeze

Down to 25.5° off a high of 35.5°. Pretty icy. With a little skiff of snow to make the ice even slipperier.

That means you didn’t spend enough time in the stores lol, we hit every store on 5th and worked up a sweat. It really wasn’t windy until we got off the train back on the island.

00Z NAM looks like maybe an inch or two SE Mass Thursday

Having chased a lot in Oswego County while at Syracuse I strongly recommend you stay off I-81 through Oswego County and take Rt. 11 instead. I-81 can get blocked by stuck trucks in heavy snow conditions and the exits are FAR apart so you won’t be able to turn around. Rt. 11 will be passable with any decent SUV regardless of how hard it’s snowing

I legit feels like it's a subconscious thing very few have mastered, lol

Picked up a quick 1/4”. At least that gives some traction out there.

City was cold this evening with the wind. Heading back now and the wind through the streets was biting. Only hit 48 with some snow spots left.

And here are all New England tornados 2020-2024. Path Path Time(EST) Width Length -------- ----- ------- ME JUL 11, 2020 1431 0k 0inj 100y 5.1m EF0 OXFORD/CUMBERLAND - Tracked from Hiram to Sebago. Trees uprooted/snapped with a roof lost to one structure. CT AUG 2, 2020 1636 0k 0inj 30y 0.3m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Brief tornado in Sharon with uprooted trees and a greenhouse destroyed. First of four tornadoes from the same supercell. CT AUG 2, 2020 1705 0k 0inj 100y 1.7m EF1 LITCHFIELD - Second tornado from the same supercell with many trees uprooted/snapped in Falls Village. CT AUG 2, 2020 1736 0k 0inj 100y 0.5m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Third tornado from the same supercell moved through Norfolk with tree damage and powerlines downed. MA AUG 2, 2020 1758 0k 0inj 100y 8.1m EF0 BERKSHIRE/HAMPDEN - Fourth tornado from the same supercell with a track through Sandisfield, Tolland, and Blandford. One home damaged and many trees downed. CT AUG 4, 2020 1240 0k 0inj 25y 50y EF1 FAIRFIELD - Waterspout associated with Tropical Storm Isaias moved ashore in Westport. Considerable damage to one home and several trees snapped. NH AUG 22, 2020 1145 0k 0inj 50y 1.5m EF0 BELKNAP - Tornadic waterspout tracked southeast over Lake Winnipesaukee near Moose Island. NH AUG 22, 2020 1305 0k 0inj 50y 1.7m EF0 CARROLL - Trees uprooted/snapped and minor damage to two structures in Center Ossipee. CT AUG 27, 2020 1424 0k 0inj 75y 0.5m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Damage confined to trees in Kent. CT AUG 27, 2020 1436 0k 0inj 20y 100y EF0 LITCHFIELD - Brief tornado in Woodbury with numerous trees downed. CT AUG 28, 2020 1453 0k 0inj 500y 11.1m EF1 NEW HAVEN - Southeast track through Bethany, Hamden, and North Haven. Significant roof damage to structures and many trees uprooted/snapped. Damage $500,000. MA OCT 7, 2020 1650 0k 0inj 50y 0.5m EF0 NORFOLK - Tornado embedded in downburst winds in Millis. Damage confined to trees. ***** VT MAR 26, 2021 1240 0k 2inj 75y 0.7m EF1 ADDISON - Tornado associated with bow echo segment moved through Middlebury. Many trees downed and some structural and vehicle damage. CT APR 21, 2021 1349 0k 0inj 30y 1.0m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Sporadic tree damage in Kent. CT JUL 18, 2021 1711 0k 0inj 75y 1.9m EF0 TOLLAND - Track through Somers. Over two dozen trees uprooted/snapped and two vehicles destroyed by falling trees. Spawned by a low-topped supercell that contained no lightning. CT-MA AUG 19, 2021 0915 0k 0inj 50y 4.7m EF0 WINDHAM/WORCESTER - Discontinuous path through Thompson (CT) and Webster (MA). Damage was confined to trees and power lines. Path ended as a waterspout over Lake Chaubunagungamaug. Associated with former Tropical Storm Fred. MA AUG 19, 2021 1230 0k 0inj 35y 0.5m EF0 WORCESTER - Trees downed/snapped in Clinton. Associated with former Tropical Storm Fred. MA AUG 23, 2021 1042 0k 0inj 10y 0.8m EF0 MIDDLESEX - Brief tornado moved northwest in Marlborough. Tree downed on two vehicles. Spawned by a low-topped supercell associated with former Hurricane Henri. MA AUG 23, 2021 1130 0k 0inj 50y 0.1m EF0 WORCESTER - Brief tornado in Bolton with damage to a few trees. Moved northwest. Spawned by a low-topped supercell associated with former Hurricane Henri. MA AUG 23, 2021 1210 0k 0inj 50y 0.1m EF0 MIDDLESEX - Brief tornado in Stow with damage to a few trees. Moved northwest. Spawned by a low-topped supercell associated with former Hurricane Henri. MA AUG 23, 2021 1429 0k 0inj unk unk EF0 WORCESTER - Waterspout on Sunset Lake in Ashburnham. Spawned by a low-topped supercell associated with former Hurricane Henri. MA SEP 2, 2021 0030 0k 0inj 15y 0.1m EF0 BARNSTABLE - Short track through Dennis. Damage to two homes and three trees downed. Associated with former Hurricane Ida. CT SEP 9, 2021 0310 0k 0inj 75y 0.8m EF0 TOLLAND - Over 50 trees snapped/downed in Coventry. CT NOV 13, 2021 1530 0k 0inj 100y 3.6m EF0 NEW HAVEN - Tracked through Cheshire with significant tree damage and two vehicles crushed. First of five QLCS tornadoes in CT/RI on this day. CT NOV 13, 2021 1544 0k 0inj 300y 1.9m EF0 NEW HAVEN - Tree damage in Branford. CT-RI NOV 13, 2021 1648 0k 0inj 100y 6.1m EF0 WINDAM/PROVIDENCE - Path from Plainfield (CT) to Foster (RI). Damage confined to trees. CT-RI NOV 13, 2021 1654 0k 0inj 100y 1.4m EF1 NEW LONDON/WASHINGTON - Tracked from Stonington (CT) to Westerly (RI). Over 20 trees snapped/uprooted and minor structure damage. RI NOV 13, 2021 1718 0k 0inj 150y 1.5m EF0 WASHINGTON - Path from North Kingstown to Wickford. Numerous trees uprooted/downed and several power poles snapped. ***** NH MAY 16, 2022 1722 0K 0inj 330y 4.8m EF1 SULLIVAN - About 1000 trees snapped/uprooted with several power poles downed in North Charlestown and Claremont. VT JUL 18, 2022 1750 0k 0inj 50y 0.9m EF1 ADDISON - Multiple trees uprooted/snapped with one structure collapsed in Addison. VT JUL 18, 2022 1755 0k 0inj 25y 0.7m EF0 ADDISON - Tracked through Waltham and Vergennes with minor tree damage. Spawned by same supercell that produced the Addison tornado. NH JUL 18, 2022 2122 0k 0inj 250y 0.4m EF1 CHESHIRE - About 200 trees uprooted/snapped and a few outbuildings destroyed in Chesterfield. CT JUL 28, 2022 1735 0k 0inj 300y 5.0m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Track from Norfolk to Colebrook. Sporadic damage to trees and minor structure damage. ***** VT JUL 13, 2023 1704 0k 0inj 20y 11.9m EF0 RUTLAND - Track from Benson to Brandon with numerous trees downed and several utility poles snapped. MA JUL 16, 2023 0956 0k 0inj 250y 2.0m EF0 WORCESTER - Discontinuous path in North Brookfield. Damage confined to trees. NH JUL 27, 2023 1350 0k 0inj 200y 12.7m EF1 CHESHIRE - Moved through North Swanzey, Marlboro, and Dublin. Around 1000 trees uprooted/snapped with vehicle and minor structural damage. Tornado lasted 22 minutes. MA JUL 29, 2023 1917 0k 0inj 25y 0.2m EF1 NORFOLK - Damage mainly to trees in Foxboro. MA AUG 8, 2023 1020 0k 0inj 300y 0.9m EF1 PLYMOUTH - Numerous trees downed and snapped in Mattapoisett. MA AUG 8, 2023 1052 0k 0inj 650y 1,2m EF0 BARNSTABLE - Track in Barnstable. One tree and utility pole downed. CT AUG 12, 2023 2000 0k 0inj 30y 0.8m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Tracked through mostly open fields in Roxbury. CT AUG 18, 2023 0653 0k 0inj 200y 2,7m EF1 WINDHAM - Over 100 trees sheared off or downed in Scotland. RI AUG 18, 2023 0740 0k 1inj 250y 9.1m EF2 PROVIDENCE - Strong tornado moved through Scituate, Johnston, and North Providence. Vehicle lifted on I-295 with one injury. Hundreds of trees uprooted/sheared off and three homes with significant damage. MA AUG 18, 2023 0807 0k 0inj 80y 7.6m EF1 BRISTOL - Many trees uprooted/snapped and some structural damage in North Attleboro and Mansfield. Same supercell that produced the tornado in RI earlier. MA AUG 18, 2023 0837 0k 0inj 35y 0.1m EF0 NORFOLK - Short path in Stoughton with trees downed. MA AUG 18, 2023 0852 0k 0inj 100y 0.4m EF1 NORFOLK - Track in Weymouth. Numerous trees uprooted/snapped and minor roof damage to one home. CT/RI SEP 13, 2023 1500 0k 0inj 70y 1.6m EF1 WINDHAM/PROVIDENCE - Path through Killingly (CT) and Foster (RI). Tree damage and one home with minor roof damage. RI SEP 13, 2023 1520 0k 0inj 70y 0.2m EF1 PROVIDENCE - Over 75 trees uprooted/snapped and one outbuilding destroyed in Glocester. First of three tornadoes from same storm. RI SEP 13, 2023 1605 0k 0inj 60y 0.2m EF1 PROVIDENCE - Roof damage to one structure and damage to trees and a solar farm in Lincoln. Second of three tornadoes from same storm. MA SEP 13, 2023 1622 0k 0inj 70y 0.1m EF0 BRISTOL - Three trees sheared off in North Attleboro. Third of three tornadoes from same storm. ***** CT JUN 21, 2024 1554 0k 0inj 250y 2.0m EF0 LITCHFIELD - Sporadic tree damage in Harwinton. NH JUN 23, 2024 1609 0k 0inj 80y 3.4m EF1 CHESHIRE - Track in Dublin with dozens of trees snapped/uprooted. RI/MA JUN 26, 2024 2223 0k 0inj 100y 4.3m EF1 PROVIDENCE/BRISTOL - Tracked through Lincoln and Cumberland (RI) and North Attleboro (MA). A number of large trees were uprooted with some falling onto homes. MA JUN 26, 2024 2229 0k 0inj 50y 0.6m EF1 BRISTOL - Trees snapped/uprooted in Rehoboth. NH JUL 16, 2024 1829 0k 0inj 250y 1.8m EF1 GRAFTON - Over 500 trees snapped/uprooted with minor damage to five homes in Lyme.