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It has been some time since we have seen troughs this amplified on modeling. At 222, the GFS has a trough running from Anchorage to New Orleans. This one sucks the TPV into the pattern(we've talked about that potential), and creates quite a cold front(w/ snow) around the 17th. Again, not sure this second front is being modeled correctly if the mis-phase is an error on the 15th...but it is impressive nonetheless at 500. Either way, we have see modeling really keying on this time frame for strong amplification.

It’s one to watch. So close.

Agreed. We're like 12 hours off from a legit event for everyone.

Darn, early on it looked better than 00z with energy dropping in farther W. .

Feels like late phase has been a big issue for years now. In fact, I can't remember the last big juicy coastal winter storm (regardless of precip type)

Don't own a sled but the club trail runs about 1,800 feet thru our woodlot, passing within 450 feet of the house. On a weekend day there might be 30-40 sled passes, when the trails are in good shape. We can barely hear them from inside the house, though if I listen the buzz is easily heard. (Traffic on the paved road 2,000 feet away makes more noise.) Caveats: 1. Our town holds only about 1,500 people. Next town west, Farmington (county seat) has just over 5,000. 2. There's better sledding within a 30-minute drive. Probably most on our trail ride from their dooryard. 3. That 450-foot span is thick forest, though mostly hardwoods. Summer use is limited to a few walkers and a handful of 4-wheeler passes by club members doing maintenance.

Except in terms of the EMI.

That’s a snowy week ahead for NNE as modeled with some major upslope in there early in the week if it pans out. Would set the resorts up real well for MLK. .

That 12z GFS run gives me goosebumps. Like Heisy said, it's so close.

GFS is pretty close to where you'd want it at this point. TW

Yes. But it's probably a binary outcome...meaning one or the other.

the potential is there for the biggest storm thus far this year if all things go well. Is Walt around? Maybe he could give her insight?

I don’t think so… The PDO doesn’t directly force the week to week pattern tendencies The PDO is largely a sea surface temperature signal and it’s connected to wind surface stressing over extended periods. I don’t think there’s a lot of proof that there’s a direct physical connection to forcing the pattern. I think the forcing is going in the other direction and maybe there’s a feedback given enough time, but the PDO is an indicator for what the atmosphere has been doing to effect the temperature distribution more than anything else Any other formal studies or whatever, notwithstanding

Thus far, the 12z suite gives credence to a storm somewhere in the 1/15 to 1/17 time frame. It doesn't appear to be a cutter either, either it hits us or to our south. That's about all anyone should glean.

The 12z GFS avoids the westward trekking slp, and sends a consolidated and highly amplified trough in the East around the 17th. If the GFS is wrong w/ the system on the 15 and it is more amplified as I suspect it might be....the rest of the pattern would be more amplified. As is, the trailing trough being the 15th amplification will be every bit as imposing.

Weather world was the best back in the day. Abram’s, JB, Paul Knight, Fred Gadomiski(sp) and others it is nowhere close to that today. Tuned in every night and then on Fridays with the long range outlooks. Loved it! I had JB recognize me on WLBR radio at one point. The good ole days!

1/15 interest as of 12z: Icon: proper digging, phase GFS: northern stream dominant, tries a late phase Different solutions, growing noise.

Gem misses but may give some upper low stuff

FWIW ICON has the storm next Friday. GFS has it in the Outer Banks.

nooner GFS for 1/15-16 event keeps the progressive look and is a scooter OTS. Toggle back through last few runs and theres a tad of variability....

Yup its been wild how drastically we've seen guidance alter within the medium-to-long range...clearly there is still a struggle with fully grasping the PAC. I also wonder if there is some residual feedback from the monster -PDO we had late summer...obviously not going to impact the models but moreso how the PAC is evolving in real time

Let's see what the EURO shows...

Gfs has been atrocious. It also always does this with coastals. The trough is defintely deeper on the gfs.

it is also showing a snowstorm in the SE region, we know that will find someway of verifying.....

I was hopeful for that first wave but I've become a bit less enthused, however, I am hoping that it may somewhat help set the stage for better potential with the second shortwave...there's a quite a bit of energy that will be in play there