All Activity

Torch!!

Perhaps the rapid warming which began before the typical El Niño lag in the spring of 2023 is part of a larger shift to more frequent strong to very strong El Niños. It’s possible that this is part of a shift in what some researchers have called the PCC. This warming occurred with the early Nino 1.2 rise in SSTs in the early spring of 2023. The cold tongue that was prominent in the EPAC during recent decades has been replaced by much warmer SSTs even during recent La Ninas. This line of research is still very new so it will probably take more observations to develop this theory more fully. But it would be a significant occurrence for the global temperatures and the weather patterns if this new climate state could produce 2.0+ ONI El Niños separated by only 3 years apart. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52731-6?utm_campaign=related_content&utm_source=HEALTH&utm_medium=communities The eastern tropical Pacific has defied the global warming trend. There has been a debate about whether this observed trend is forced or natural (i.e., the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; IPO) and this study shows that there are two patterns, one that oscillates along with the IPO, and one that is emerging since the mid-1950s, herein called the Pacific Climate Change (PCC) pattern. Here we show these have distinctive and distinguishable atmosphere-ocean signatures. While the IPO features a meridionally broad wedge-shaped SST pattern, the PCC pattern is marked by a narrow equatorial cooling band. These different SST patterns are related to distinct wind-driven ocean dynamical processes. We further show that the recent trends during the satellite era are a combination of IPO and PCC. Our findings set a path to distinguish climate change signals from internal variability through the underlying dynamics of each. Much recent work focused on whether equatorial Pacific cooling over past decades is driven by anthropogenic effects or arises from internally-generated climate variability, like the IPO. A definitive anthropogenic link to the recent trends would allow us to reliably predict a cooler tropical Pacific. As the tropical Pacific is known to be a climatic pacemaker, for (at least) the near-future this would mitigate global warming via ocean heat uptake and low-level cloud feedbacks. Instead, if the cyclic IPO dominates the recent cooling, we may expect a strong warming when it reverses. In support of the first possibility, we have identified an emerging climate change signal in the tropical Pacific across different observational datasets and we call it the PCC. The PCC has distinctive ocean-atmosphere dynamics that differ from those associated with the IPO. We further demonstrate that the recent trends during the satellite era, which have been the focus of significant attention, result from a combination of IPO and PCC. The emerging PCC SST trend pattern features a narrow band of cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warming elsewhere. This SST change is linked to thermocline shoaling/SSH decreases in the central-to-eastern Pacific and dipole-like changes in zonal surface wind stress. In contrast, the recurrent IPO-driven SST trend pattern is characterized by a meridionally broader cooling in the eastern Pacific, zonal dipole-like thermocline/SSH changes and an overall strengthening of tropical Pacific zonal wind stress. We have shown that these distinct ocean circulation changes are a response to different wind stress patterns. These oceanic responses account for surface cooling in the eastern Pacific, with the thermocline shoaling playing a dominant role in the PCC cooling and enhanced zonal advective cooling mainly driving the IPO-related cooling. While basic geophysical fluid dynamics proved sufficient to attribute the observed oceanic changes to surface wind stress, we have not addressed the origins of the wind stress patterns associated with the PCC and the IPO. New research is needed to elucidate the wind changes, but our leading hypothesis is as follows. In response to GHG forcings39,40temperature change in the upper troposphere are stronger than at the surface (Fig. S4), increasing atmospheric static stability. Consequently, the initial SST and surface wind response to rising GHGs might not be amplified as efficiently via Bjerknes feedback as is that for the internal modes on interannual to decadal timescales. Given the differences in thermocline and ocean current patterns associated with the PCC and the IPO, the coupled feedbacks related to ocean dynamics are also expected to differ, potentially contributing to distinct climate pattern formations for decadal variability and climate change. Additionally, climate variations outside of the tropical Pacific may influence the tropical Pacific trade winds26,27,41–44. Further, it has been argued that pronounced decadal-to-multidecadal SST variability in the Atlantic Ocean is also dominated by the response to the same external forcing that the tropical Pacific encounters45. Perhaps the co-occurrence of these long-term trends in different regions is not simply a direct response to rising GHGs but is influenced by inter-basin interactions. More work is needed to disentangle causal relationships among the long-term changes in different basins46,47. Throughout this paper we have taken for granted the widespread assumption that the IPO is an internal mode of the climate system. However, while we worked to distinguish between the recurrent IPO-related decadal variability and the emerging PCC signal, we are open to the possibility that these two may have become coupled together by anthropogenic forcing. They have much in common: shoaling of the thermocline in the east, enhanced upwelling somewhere in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. It seems reasonable to postulate that if the response to radiative forcing is the emerging PCC pattern seen here, then it could initiate coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that favor a negative IPO state that also has an enhanced SST gradient24. This might explain why the most recent IPO swing has been extreme and robust (Fig. S1b). If so, this suggests that in nature forcing is projecting onto natural modes of variability, while it is not clear whether climate models can reproduce this behavior. A new perspective on how internal variability interacts with the climate change signal will be needed in future studies.

There was definitely enough moisture to get me pretty wet on my bike ride last night. It actually felt pretty good considering how hot it was.

Your house must have 0 insulation. A few less $6/pint IPAs a week and you can probably save enough for better insulation, maybe even a mini-split. Not really a dunk. Recognize it early and pull the plug before kids >>> pretend it's working just to protect the institution of marriage while deep down everyone is miserable.

I start following ENSO in the blog in about a month, once I do the wrap up on the prior season and we clear the spring prediction barrier. Should be pretty clear by then.

Whole house fan here. Sucks the heat right out. Too early to run the CAC and haven't had it serviced yet

Two reports of tornadoes in my part of the state. The one earlier mentioned around Carson City and another near Otsego and Plainwell that crossed US-131. Just lots of rain IMBY. My county was briefly under a warning but I don't believe anything ever touched down.

Looks like it’s going to be an easy ENSO forecast as well….High-end strong (at the very least)/super. Given everything that we’ve seen up to this point, WWBs, TC’s, subsurface, +PMM, MJO, OHC, etc. and the models projecting a strong +IOD event to develop in the next several months, it’s going to be able to very easily sustain itself and start a Bjerknes feedback loop

Managed to scrounge up 0.54" from the early morning elevated leftovers. Brings April up to 4.78". Today/this evening has been looking like our best shot for heavy rains all along, and still looks that way.

That’s Thursday. Last night was fine in the 50s.

Would make for an easy forecast in terms of temps.

The environment is now quite wet. I got another 0.83" overnight, boosting my April total to nearly 5 inches.

An extreme +PMM has developed: @40/70 Benchmark As per research, +PMM supports east-based/East Pacific Niños. So that would support your idea of 1982-83 possibly being an analog Research: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.” Link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other%20climate%20modes%20further%20complicate,and%20NPO%2C%20on%20ENSO%20evolution.

Where was this blocking in early March?

Its like full on summer down here in CT with dews and +30 departures..

when he is old and frail, he is going to have to call some local handyman to come install his window ACs. Kevin: need to install window units, please come this week Handyman: huh? Hey old man, it’s April 10th. you don’t need it yet. Handyman hangs up and says to himself, man, that guy has severe dementia.

Yes absolutely. It was 77 on the thermostat last evening . I mean it hit 83 with low 60’s dews. I love the early heat but also love to sleep

Did you really have AC window units running last night?

If I put AC in (which no way this early) my wife would kick them out the window.

I have a very low tolerance for people who can't disagree without hurling insults......talk about a tell-tale sign of feelings of inadequacy. Ball-busting sarcasm is one thing, but there is simply no place for calling anyone an idiot, or referring to their postulation as "idiotic".

Why? Did you mean to ask Tblizz this since he’s been divorced and married 4 times at age 25?

Typo

What is idiotic is your inability to wrap your mind around the fact that it works for the strongest of events. Weaker events are much more variable and cool ENSO doesn't get as strong; I have already stated that. Assuming we peak over 2.0 during the coming El Nino, I will bet you an idiotic $100 right now that 2027-2028 is yet another cool ENSO. Should be something akin to taking the proverbial candy from a baby for you, right?? I get what you are saying about the sample size being inadequate in the grand scope of time, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the relationship doesn't exist. You can pull sample size on any relationship or correlation with respect to the weather because all of our sample sizes are inadequate. We have been keeping records for such a small fraction of time.

I honestly don’t know how the wife lives with Kevin

Beer?