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I will say the rain over Southwest CT is not Uber heavy at least.

Look at the rain returns from BOX versus OKX. It’s quite the difference there.

2.1

What do you mean..?

Man why is BOX running so much “hotter” than OKX or any other radar.

How is Central MA looking between now and noon for rain and severe potential? Need to bring my kiddo in to get his wisdom teeth out this morning and wondering we'll be lucky enough to get back home before the worst of the weather gets here.

Picked up 1.8" here from the overnight rains, july monthly total at 7.25" now

Extended the stat analysis to the 1970s to include the West Chester move. Two comparisons were made: individual years using 1972 minus 1945 as a metric, and a 5-year average using 1971-75 minus 1941-45 as a metric. The results are the same for both metrics: the Chester County COOPs are significantly different from the non-Chesco stations, cooling by 2.2F relative to the other stations using the 5-year averages. Strong evidence that the larger NCEI bias adjustments are very robust statistically. This analysis also shows the problems with AI. As Don stated above its handy for an initial screening; but, unlikely to give a complete and accurate answer to a complex problem.

Kind of surprised that area isn't in a high risk for flash flooding

Check out Albany radar. You can see that the flow just off the deck is coming in from the west north west right towards the Hudson Valley while it’s SE near and SE of Albany. Just a classic convergence corridor wringing out all this rain. Gonna be big-time issues there.

That said, they’ll be some enhancement when that moisture does make it into the upslope SE flow zones.

6z ICON.has 14 more for eastern NY

And Nam too far SE

The biggest totals will be west of them I think. I saw a lot of talk from many around here on TV about upslope and all that probably because hi res love to treat every 500’ hill as the Sierra. But it’s all about convergence as we spoke about. That area getting crushed is downsloped on SE flows. Atmosphere don’t care when there is a good convergence zone and moisture conduit off the deck.

Latest HRRR is way off with that meso low.. curious to see what it does in future runs

Rain just started here…much later start than we were told and expected, but radar looks impressive now.

Im at Jiminy Peak, light rain now but looks better upstream, there is a creek flowing hard that looks like decent flood potential, will see at daybreak how its doing after the rain picks up.

I was just going to post this.. seems like the Berks might be under the gun later on

Yeah for the entire system Hudson valley ftw. Low looks a little east of earlier guidance.

The Hudson River going to flood NYC? The entire river valley is getting pummeled.

I'll be in chase mode later on

Alittle under 5” total.

How is it looking for us further east in E CT/RI