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Far and away it’s been the best model this winter. It nailed that midweek snow event a few days prior to the big storm and several others in terms of placement

Let’s snow

Scoots lives S Wey so may be a bit different than Wey

March 2012 for reference

normally I’d look at the setup and say rain, but how cold the ocean temps are right now could help us (east winds not the death sentence they often are in these setups for the coast). If the low goes inland it will rain regardless, but I think we have more room for error than usual in these setups due to it being mid Feb + the unusually cold ocean temps.

Cloudy all day but the sun was out first thing in the morning, making the snow glisten.

Bad start for da charts

GFS juicing up a bit too at 18z....Really likes Ray's area up into SE NH, but it got better for all of SNE vs 12z.

In an active pattern, all we need is one quick Arctic shot thru mid March. I’m more interested in precip at this point. This region really needs it.

ah that explains the S. Wey Naval base COOP reports ive been seeing looking back at storms from the mid 90s.

Coldest start at ORH too since 1995-96 at this point. The two years immediately ahead of 2026 are 1976 and 1996 and both were quite torchy around 2/9-11 so we actually might pass those two over the next few days even though we're not going to be particularly frigid....today's number will be pretty cold though which aren't in the books yet.

I thought it did absolutely fantastic the Jan 18-19th system it was very consistent with it from the start when most of the major models had it OTS or clipping the SE coast. I was praising it that storm calling it the RGEM storm when most where focusing on a win for the AIs, which was true but i think they overshadowed the RGEMs performance. its been doing great overall this winter imo and vastly superior to other hi res guidance like the NAM

That was stupid. But pride and ego overrule what your body tells you.

If i had to choose i'm going with this one....thanks

So March is going to March....Like it does every year....since the dawn of time....

Congrats

Probably similar to just about everyone else - right most of the time but busts sometimes - Collier holds a Bachelor's degree in Meteorology and a Bachelor of Science in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and The University of Tulsa..

It was a good run. We probably start sliding back now in the rankings but for this to be the coldest winter since 1996 at BDL is impressive.

Looking at the 3k NAM it'ss interesting to see areas near ice covered water struggling to get above freezing tomorrow

One thought to all this hulabaloo. The pattern is changing after 2 months of colder than normal. Pattern change creates model kaos. Before the 18 z runs, I will be BOLD. The 2 month colder than normal pattern is ending................. March will probably be variable temperature wise and a hodge podge of rain/snow events....................................

27 at ORH today

I was referring to the March equinox and sun angle but yes, meteorological spring is about to be a roller coaster.

Verbatim, 12z UKMET was a nasty ice storm for Ashe, Watauga, Avery and Allegheny counties.

Per what the EW have been showing this period (2/17-23) could end up the warmest week in the E 1/3 of the US overall, possibly even in the absolutes in some areas, til at least late March.

Could be . Just keep stacking the pack either way