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Are we really talking about a 4 inch snowstorm in NYC metro off a warm front with marginal cold to start? Hey, I hope it works!

Lol! Gotcha.

Let's hope he's right this time!

Euro looks solid SNE

DIT just made a mess in his dungarees.

1 to 2"

JB says there is a 10 to 15 day lag after Europe gets cold until it gets cold in the east. He believes the trough will back in from the North Atlantic into the east.

what does the euro show

I only have looked through a handful of the big dogs but the accumulation maps are spot on for every single one so far. There are so many maps of these storms that are way overdone and just wrong in general. Even the KU book has some glaring snowfall map errors. I know this will bring me much joy and reminiscing in the days ahead.

I figure some of you will appreciate the obsessive anal-retentive details of snow reporting on Mansfield... Yesterday we had 1.75" or so that we called 2"... then it snowed a bit overnight... but was very windy and the grooming team thought several inches fell. The snow cam went off-line briefly around the time of the morning report and it was called 2" more overnight for a 24-hour total of 4". Snow cam came back and only had just over 3". Say 3.1" or 3.2". The early reports on the hill from skinners was 4-5". It actually looked good (photo from friend JA). However, once we got to High Road, we saw that was also a wind-blown 3" (barely, if you got level with the snowpack). The funny part is that folks on the hill thought at least 4" was a good number and were trying to talk us into it. However, the argument is if you have multiple source points saying 3".... maybe it is just 3". And we removed an inch from the snow report and Stowe seasonal total to reflect an accurate total, from 114" to 113" after considering the evidence. This hobby is like an exhibit in OCD, ha. The good news is the snow depth is still stout and only compacted about 7” at the 3,000ft level.

The lol wasn’t enough to say I was joking?

Huh? The link to the NWS blend of models is the TOTAL snowfall out to 89 hours, which is Wednesday. Look at what it’s showing…that’s now till Wednesday, total. And the GEFS is in complete disagreement with its own operational run, that is fact and it’s a red flag

Ignore him Euro is further south but weaker

December is more or less going how I expected, although more extreme. It never really looked like some consistently super cold pattern. To me it always looked like a pretty cold start and then a much warmer push back. Most of the country may actually finish warm. Locally we've literally never seen temps over 65F from mid-Dec to mid-Jan, so this level of warmth is pretty historic here and definitely more than I expected. The Northwest is actually warmest relative to averages, which is not really consistent with -WPO, -PNA historically. It's just an ugly, unstable and volatile pattern. Record cold all month...oops My big theory theory is very simple: eventually La Nina Climatology kicks in. If you retain the cold in Canada, but add in the ridge over the Southeast in Jan and/or Feb and/or Mar, the cold will dump into the West eventually. Alaska and Western Canada are usually a good source region for us, especially if the La Nina / -PDO are to collapse late toward an El Nino or +PDO. I wouldn't be surprised if it happens a bit later than I initially expected though given how everything has gone to date.

Deal With it - Cosgrove

He’s Sox fan too . Thankfully there’s been nothing to cheer about for either bs base there for awhile

Isn’t there actually supposed to be something to that? I can’t remember where I’ve seen that before.

Please elaborate?

why are you posting a second link blend of models 6 hr snowfall that ends at 12Z 12/24 ? Plus its just not the GFS showing greater amounts

Clear. 27.2°

I should be more realistic because we only average 4-5 in a winter. Just hope we get close to that

Meh, I still think this winter has ratter written all over it. No southern stream involvement and the northern stream only cuts when it occasionally amplifies. Everything else is a strung out POS.

Nothing torks me off more than someone parking in the street in a residential subdivision. Reeks of inadequacies.

assumed you were within the 1" shade. next run will be different anyway

Don’t forget to remind friends and loved ones this Wednesday that Santa isn’t real. .