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Welp, the cold is here at least. 15F/DP -5F

I will prop some fans on my roof blowing south lol. I have about 4.0" inches of snow pack remaining here. Snow on snow is always welcomed.

Reggie slightly north through 42 Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

11 in Marysville now

Shut up

It basically snowed all day at my house. Maybe added an additional inch. Out at my office in JSpinland, just the occasional flurry. Usually it’s the opposite.

Looks like .75" QPF before flip DC metro

a smidge, yes, nothing note worthy

I want to go to a Caps game and splurge for on-ice seats. Such a different experience. Also, it's already down to 12 here.

That’s about what the 3k NAM puts out for a large chunk of Virginia into the western Carolinas. Despite getting the mixing further north, it is by no means warm outside of that region near the 800mb level where above freezing air manages to advect in. Which actually brings up the haggling over details that I’m usually trying to sort out for our area, ice impacts. Let’s look down in the Mid-Atlantic region…I’m no fan of whatever algorithm the Euro uses to generate its p-types when it comes to sleet vs freezing rain. Instead of a sleet bomb, it pretty much encases the entire state of Virginia in about .75-1.00” of freezing rain. These two models have a pretty similar column thermally. Here’s Euro’s 925mb (3000 ft temps) Euro 1hr precip/ptype at the same frame That’s with surface temps in the low to mid 20s all the way down thru western NC and 850mb (5000ft) temps below zero in northern VA. No way am I buying that big of an expanse of crippling freezing rain on CAD of that strength and depth there outside of the Apps in the far western part of the state. A much more sleet heavy scenario, with an eventual transition to freezing rain late in the event seems more plausible. But yea those are two models with radically different ice scenarios despite similar column thermals. Applying this to our area, any mix type during the main part of this is going to be sleet. There’s just too much depth to the cold for anything appreciable freezing rain wise.

Isotherms trended north.

Bring us Home Randy !

Friday night before a big storm, got drunk on the sofa Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Tomorrow.

You know I could agree with model guidance about the warm nose heading so far north if this cold air was a week old and not a fresh air mass that is coming in tonight. Im sticking to my guns on this. we will have some pingers we often do have more of a icy snow when it comes to colder big storms.I just think models are having a hard time with how cold the air is and have deep vs the storm coming from the south the models run from mid day I saw had the main low more south. But yet the ice/warmer nose moved more north?

This is why I'm starting to shift my modeling intrigue towards next weekend...not that this event is boring, but I think the lead up has just run it's course...just start, already.

Hr 42 rgem is a tad north

wow. Is enjoy the proper response? send that shit south. I want whatever we get to be here for weeks. FYI, I still have enough snow cover that I could scoot around on snomobiles in fields. I will take pics tomorrow as I need to work on one. Yall will need to help me post it. Pics are a pain in da arse on this site.

RGM

One of my best friends is originally from Pottsville and every Christmas gets some of that. It’s not bad!

Canadian RGEM did run yet? It is running and is 2 inches more so far than previous run.

Are you planning on doing a final final call?

Fun fact Jan 23,2025 the low temperature was 13... crazy nearly sand a year later