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Agreed. The tough issue with this potential that can't be changed is the approach of the pacific s/w. Normally, I like the "ribbon" coming through the Yellowstone region in a ESE direction. With the ridge so firmly anchored over Northern California, we're dealing with a wave diving out from the Dakotas to the SSE.

Anyone else loving the upper levels but worried about lack of cold air?

118 temps are iffy

Closed 500 low over western/central Tennessee by HR 111. Surface low over western South Carolina. Everyone east of I-81 starts as rain, but the flip to snow seems imminent.

Flipping over… would be a painful wait but hopefully worth it

I said that 30 minutes ago

I'm at HR 108 and the presentation at 500 mb looks good to my eye. Passing through western Tennessee and starting to go neutral.

it’s gonna do it again

Ironically I'm slightly concerned this may be too far west with a low over central NC

It's going to be good, guys.

Here comes the gfs

Yep going negative

Neg tilt by hour 105

Ouch. Mid state swing & miss.

Looking a little 12z-ish early on…

We are about to get clocked…

H5 pass will definitely be far to our south which is what @Terpeast has been hammering home as our ticket.

Come to papa

GFS looking better than 18z, which was already a good run

I expect this will be another decent run at the surface.

So far so good.

I mean the top is 0z and bottom is 18z. I find it hard to see this miss, just look at that lobe digging south.