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I would be down for the GFS. Would spare the entire weekend.

CoastalWx is "the boss" in this subforum a torchy 66/55 currently in my hood

Ha y'all's just got model magnified ?

Canadian east too. He's got this.

It would be fitting to start fall right where we exited summer....boredom.

GFS is almost always OTS at this range (the Feb blizz last yr not included)

we are experiecing an onshore flow at one level the clouds to our east moving in - BUT those clouds to the west are also approaching making things very complicated

GFS is pushing in the H5 ridging into New England to keep the storm further offshore.

Its nice out. The bottom really fell out of summer quick this year. Quicker than what we are used to in the new climate regime

Well your boss.. Vortex95 says it’s coming and coming hard . So it’s coming .

Hopefully it shits itself, but that is in the envelope of solutions. Also subtle shift east overall I thought on all 6z despite the retro west.

So much for doom and gloom, it’s beautiful outside.

So you do look and use

Lol I was just going to post this GFS says what storm

The Perfect Stein on the GFS suite. Op and AI.

yeah I got another shower last night and I am up to .41 for the event

I meant ICON.

Yeah ICON is pretty wild. That's an impressive warm core system and it takes forever to occlude

AIGFS ain’t playing ball yet. Further east then 6z if anything.

as of today - most of the significant impact from the coastal LP will be further east BUT this could still change - stay tuned !

Probably would be looking at some serious coastal flooding across eastern MA and particularly the Cape and along the north facing shore of Long Island

12z ICON also kind of does that

Walt, it's good to hear from you. I hope all is well. As you know, the signal for something developing off the coast has been there for a few days now, and as we get closer in time I am becoming a touch more bullish. I think the odds are low that we see an officially designated subtropical storm, but I am intrigued by some of the guidance signals between the Google DeepMind, EPS, and Euro/GFS AI. This is a highly uncommon thing for us up in the Mid-Atlantic and New England to see in September, even if it remains non-tropical. Currently I think the impacts are around what you describe. If the Euro suite is to be believed, we would see strong winds, prolonged easterly fetch causing significant coastal flooding, especially if the storm is still potent around astronomical high tides later in the week, and potentially significant rainfall. I'll note that part of southern Connecticut has been inundated recently with rainfall and flash flooding, and although this rain would likely last over days, if it is potent with a tropical tap banding into the state could cause serious issues. This is one to watch IMO. Regardless of official designation.

0.15" as of early this morning. A shower yesterday and one overnight.