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This threat is a disaster. Can we start a new one?

Our charts went to sharts. Modeling is meh and warm.

I mean the MJO phase 4, positive NAO and AO positive, PNA negative…I mean…not a great set up for snow unless I’m totally off base here.

Sigh…I will take my 1-2” tonight and like it. It just hurts a little knowing how close this was to something more significant.

NAM tries for the IVT, there is your C-1”. Man what could have been when watching those radar returns

It’s all about precip rates. If we would get good precip, it would snow. Marginal situations require good rates to overcome & snow.

You raise important questions. The shift in the predominant storm tracks that you observed may be the result of an ongoing structural shift in storm tracks rather than periodic cycles. Many factors are involved, including cyclical ones, but there is at least some evidence that Arctic amplification is contributing. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/10/jcli-d-16-0650.1.xml I still suspect that by the mid-2030s, we'll have a lot more answers related to regional snowfall, etc.

Yes, that's been my fear. Last couple of days I thought the writing was on the wall.

Daylight: 10H:41M Surise: 6:50 AM / Sunset: 5:31 PM Roughly equivalent to 10/25 We've gained 1H26Mins from the winter lull

It's fine. I know the drill. You guys are going to sacrifice me now.

Our 13th winter event of the season arrives tonight followed by milder but wet weather most of this upcoming week. We should see rain overspreading the area from SW to NE across the area between 3pm and 5pm. The rain should mix with and change to snow especially over the higher ground of NW Chester and SE Berks Counties. Those higher spots over 600ft ASL could see up to a couple inches of slushy snow on non-paved surfaces. Lower spots should have a tougher time seeing much snow accumulation but either way roads should remain wet. Temperatures tomorrow today and tomorrow will be close to normal near 40 degrees. Except for tonight and Monday night we should see overnight lows remain above freezing till next weekend. We will also see rain on Wednesday and again on Thursday night through Friday. Some areas may finally get rid of this snow cover that has been on the ground for more than a month.

Our 13th winter event of the season arrives tonight followed by milder but wet weather most of this upcoming week. We should see rain overspreading the area from SW to NE across the area between 3pm and 5pm. The rain should mix with and change to snow especially over the higher ground of NW Chester and SE Berks Counties. Those higher spots over 600ft ASL could see up to a couple inches of slushy snow on non-paved surfaces. Lower spots should have a tougher time seeing much snow accumulation but either way roads should remain wet. Temperatures tomorrow today and tomorrow will be close to normal near 40 degrees. Except for tonight and Monday night we should see overnight lows remain above freezing till next weekend. We will also see rain on Wednesday and again on Thursday night through Friday. Some areas may finally get rid of this snow cover that has been on the ground for more than a month.

I remember that 30-day MJO 8 prediction, I can't really remember much else

Wetter week ahead

Midway mark 14 days / 2 weeks Dep EWR: -7.6 (0.03) NYC: -8.4 (0.008) LGA: -8.1 (0.003) JFK: -8.3 (0.01)

would you happen to have a number for PD2?

Here in Chesco we will tie the 31 days of cover from 2010 tomorrow - but we actually had 32 days of snow cover just 5 years ago in 2021 we had 32 straight days with snow on the ground.

Records: Highs: EWR: 76 (1949) NYC: 73 (1949) LGA: 74 (1949) JFK: 64 (1954) Lows: EWR: -7 (1943) NYC: -8 (1943) LGA: -7 (1943) JFK: 5 (2015) Historical: 1895 - A big Gulf snowstorm produced six inches at Brownsville TX and Mobile AL, 15 inches at Galveston TX, and 24 inches of snow at Rayne LA in 24 hours. Snow fell at the very mouth of the Mississippi River. Houston TX received 22 inches of snow, and nine inches blanketed New Orleans LA. (David Ludlum) 1936 - The temperature at Parshall ND plunged to 60 degrees below zero to establish a state record. On the 6th of July that same year the temperature at Steele ND hit 121 degrees, also a state record. (David Ludlum) 1982 - An intense cyclone off the Atlantic coast capsized a drilling rig killing 84 persons, and sank a Soviet freighter resulting in 33 more deaths. The cyclone produced 80 mph winds which whipped the water into waves fifty feet high. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A storm crossing the central U.S. produced severe thunderstorms which spawned tornadoes in Louisiana and Mississippi. Tornadoes injured four persons at Pierre Pass LA, three persons at Tangipahoa LA, two persons at Lexie MS and two persons at Nicholson MS. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 100 mph killed one person south of Sulphur LA. Jackson MS was drenched with 1.5 inches of rain in ten minutes. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Low pressure brought heavy snow to parts of Michigan, with eleven inches reported at Rogers City. A cold front crossing the Northern Rockies produced wind gusts to 74 mph at Livingston MT, and created blizzard conditions in Idaho. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thirty-seven cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Atlanta GA was a February record. Highs of 79 degrees at Chattanooga TN, 84 degrees at Columbia SC and 85 degrees at New Orleans LA equalled February records. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Snow, sleet and freezing rain along an arctic cold front prevailed from the north central U.S. to the Northern Atlantic Coast Region. High winds created near blizzard conditions in southern Wyoming, closing Interstate 80, while up to eleven inches of snow fell across central Minnesota. 1990 - Heavy snow also blanketed the Northern Atlantic Coast States, with ten inches reported at Buffalo NY and Mount Washington NH. Freezing rain over southern New England knocked out electricity to more than 10,000 homes in the western suburbs of Boston MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2000: Amarillo, Texas, set unusual temperature records today. The high of 82 degrees smashed the old daily high of 76 degrees set in 1921. Likewise, the morning low of 41 degrees broke the old high-low record of 40 degrees, established in 1921. 2004 - Up to 11 inches of snow fell in areas south of Nashville, TN, causing power outages and producing hazardous driving conditions. The Weather Doctor

lol the signs, dead giveaway..

You dont have to worry about parking up there.

37/ 27 clouds from the system that will mainly miss. Rain already into SPA. Overall above avg this week but 3 o4 of the 5 days may see some precip. Perhaps some will get to or exceed 50 Tuesday wit enough afternoon clearing. Clouds and light rain Wed - Sat.

For people like myself that like a long duration winter with a solid snow pack, but also realize that I do have a breaking point, Oneonta New York would be my sweet spot. They average about 85 inches of snow per season. January and February average temperatures are about 20 to 22°. They get fringe squalls off the lake that drop an inch or two sometimes three at various times to freshen things up. They are close enough to Albany that they can still can cash in on some Noreasters and almost always cash in on any SWFE and clippers. Having been through several winters that fell within that range of 70 to 100", usually by the end of March in those winters I'm ready for spring.

You know that once we get closer to spring and warmer temps all of these nice looking storms are going come up the coast and give us rain instead of sliding south. Just wait for it.

People know you are a joke. No need to bump anything since there is alot. Remember all my good predictions? Your warmth never happened like usual. Anyway winter is winding down. Maybe 1 last storm next week then a warmup . I dont count winter over until late March.

"is we back?" lol Lfg!