All Activity

The models have all been struggling mightily.

After having 60s advertised for over a week either Christmas day or the day after, now we may not hit 40 lol.

Take a look at the difference in on the ensemble between 18z GEFS yesterday and 12z today...I have been griping about this for weeks. This is for Dec 28-29. There are a few really strong warm air masses embedded in the ensemble mean. They were greatly skewing the mean - even though there were a greater number of colder members included. As we get closer to the event, the anomalously warm air masses are subtracted. And we get this substantial move. Do I still think we see chinooks? Yes, that seems baked in the cake. However, this may we a winter where the colder air masses get colder as reality gets closer. Those are kind of fun winters BTW. We don't get a lot of those. Normally, we see cold air masses moderate as they get closer to reality - Ex A is early December. To be clear, I do want to see a few more runs before declaring the Jan 2-3 cold air mass has legs. If models are flipping this much, they could easily flip right back.

Yeah I still think less juicy and more north is likely. I could see SN/PL/FZRA in NYC. I am not highly confident in this range at the metro being mostly snow at all. I don't like the -PNA and think the pattern upstream over the N Plains/MW will allow this to probably gain too much latitude before its shunted.

I though euro looked great for CT at 12z for Friday Sat deal. Sense a theme? Looks great there, less so here, and especially north and east

DTW is at 12.9" which an exact tie for their 1936-37 futility mark. The average last snowfall is nearly 4 months away.

This is one of the most bizarre advisories i've ever seen. Winter Weather Advisory for sub-advisory snow. "up to two inches"

Well... I prefer my Christmas music to be recorded pre 1980s... NO Mariah or Wham, let alone the last decade or so

They heard I was coming to reason with them.

He was one of the best!

Well the typical Mets season only lasts the first pitch they see of the season so...

Eps

Add "Atmospheric River" to the list of overused and ridiculous weather terms.

Yes

The gradient boundary presses further and further southward with each passing surface wave. If we can line up precip on an east-west boundary, we could see a slider in play.

It's not a winter if we don't have at least one anafront where the cold doesn't make it across the plateau quickly enough for East TN Valley.

Checked last night for the first time in days. Trying to cut back.

The GFS and Euro are showing .90-1.35" qpf here, Ratios should be really high with this as well in the 12-15:1 range i think, These trough related set ups are generally good fluff producers.

Just for kicks and giggles...12z AIGFS gives us this look. That will certainly change, and was a red herring in early December. However, IF the second cold shot is real, I would certainly think winter wx might be on the table. At some point, one of those warm air masses with lots of humidity won't get out of the way fast enough.

Next week looks downright chilly

The fokes on long Island don't like the trend. I do!

AIEURO came south with snowfall.

The 12z AIGFS(no idea how accurate that model is???) also sends a pretty strong cold shot around Jan 2-3. It is more Texas centered, but spreads eastward. It has an anafront - there is that word again. Models were overly strong w/ the early December cold. We have to guard against that, but this is January. Climatology favors colder air masses.

This storm is on the 26th

I mean sure if you’re talking about a few nose hairs colder.