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Start at 15:1 and can always adjust higher once the flakes fly…

Ai euro says yes

One thing I'm very interested in is the perceived utter failure of mid range models by a cadre of professional forecasters. I know mag mentioned known struggles in winter when switching to -NAO, but it appears this ongoing failure is way on top of normal struggles. I have not checked verification scores. The other hersay is that the AI models have done a significantly better job in mid range the past couple months. If anyone knows a site for verification scores of those it would be awesome! From my basic understanding the AI models run on basically a similar algorithm to guessing the next pixel in a image vs the normal models extreme physics modeling. Finding out when and we're each one excels seems like the obvious move. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Looks just like Upton at 1 pm .

It seems like the blocking patterns are a thing of the past, I though that little system that came through Tuesday Morning was gonna be the 50/50 we needed as well but that’s not worked out either. So we nickle and dime our way again. Just one warning type snow 6”plus would be nice this year. Long ways to go yet I guess.

Looks like an Ice Storm Warning was just issued here. Still saying 0.25" up to 0.4" of ice in spots. Gross.

Are ratios really going to be that great? I haven't looked at soundings it seems like Kuchera is just cold surface temp = high ratios which we all know doesn't always work out.

57 degrees...nice day

That says it was updated about 6 am so that's likely not the final#s

Here come the advisories. Looks like Up to one inch snow/sleet, and 0.1" zr.

Should be good for 5" there I would think. Depending which side of Bristol you're on since the cutoff may setup nearby or perhaps not with a couple more tics NE.

.30" liquid drought begets drought

at times like this, i stop and think what the actual working pros think, even steve d....they all seem to think there will be some significant snow, albeit not the storm of the century. if these folks thought this was low confidence, they would say so.

I only ever saw forecast with highs 30-35 for Tuesday/Wednesday. Where forecast highs lower than that before? One of the reasons I found Friday storm intriguing was NWS having cut there forecast high Friday by 25 or so degrees. A forecast high that did have basically full model support for days before having the rug pulled out and one they were parroting a bit on social media the end of last week and last weekend. I saw some models lower for this upcoming Tuesday, I don't think it was full consus. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Lol that's how they cover themselves

The problem is the no precipitation

That model appears to be on an island right now in regards to that idea. But what is good to see is that there isn’t much of a warmup after Christmas aside from Monday-Tuesday. Miraculous how warm CONUS has been but we evaded most of it. Looks like the cold reloads after the new year. Models backed off on that a bit idea but I think it’s just noise for now

so in other words, a run of the mill event of the kind that used to be quite normal around here....3-5 and more to the north. i have come to miss them, myself. i'd take one of these every week or two.

Mt. Holly bullish still

I'll extend the offer to LGA and JFK as well. Regarding the north trend, it does seem to have leveled off for now so let's see where we go from here.

The same advisory for Jim Thorpe and the Pocono's ouch

They’re still barely usable. Besides, 15z per my understanding uses 12z initialization.

But for real tho, stop yall. It’s Christmas. Go chill with your family and come back tomm. Merry Christmas to you all.

New Haven county went straight to warning too....

That's looks so differentfrom there winter weather page.