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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
moneypitmike replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Considering how often progged "good patterns" end up with with suck, I'm willing to roll the dice on this boring 15-day models. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
qg_omega replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
A very temp positive PNA before tanking once again, it’s a blimp not a regime shift -
They often get upslope snow on the west side there that can be pretty decent too. That whole area is very snowy just very few people around to report it. I had a friend living at 1900ft in Stannard and he always had more snow on the ground than the Stowe base area. It’s just in the middle of nowhere where though.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
moneypitmike replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Hours to go before anything here. 20.8* -
I am hoping for an unforeseen change in the weather just like the week before Christmas that was advertised as a warm up and then suddenly the models reversed course. I have about 6” of snow left on the ground after the last rainstorm. Going to be painful to lose my winter wonderland. .
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30 years ago tonight, something really big was on our doorstep, I just can't quite remember what it was.
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Seems like a weenie spot, was not really aware of it until now.
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Today I estimated that a significant portion of the E US (at least the area from Chicago to much of the SE will end up ~5-6 warmer than normal for the first half of Jan. With that, the chance of Jan overall coming in cold is low and warmer than normal overall has a better chance. So, the cold month string will be broken most likely. Plus Dec was mainly NN from the SE to the SL area meaning Dec’s cold didn’t even come close to covering the entire E US.
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The 18z GEFS and AI GEFS are AIFS Euro are COLD in the window that we need them to be. Keep the STJ cranked, and let's roll.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Damage In Tolland replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Glad we agree -
With all the cold air we've had and is progged to return, it would be the statistical anomaly of the last 100 years if the MA and ENE would continue near snowless for the rest of the winter. Otoh, it wouldn't shock me if we did, but central/southern VA and parts of NC cash in. That's textbook Niña of late and consistent with the "what happens in December the winter will remember" saying.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
HIPPYVALLEY replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
29° with a few raindrops and pellets. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
RUNNAWAYICEBERG replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Agreez. Delete the above. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
dendrite replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Hopefully your neighbor’s Giants inflatable rips apart. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Damage In Tolland replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
30.5 with sleet /zr mix . Pretty icy on driveway - Yesterday
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Ovi got a Cup.
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I’m 28. Harbaugh has been the HC the majority of my life. I do think it’s best for the team but feels kind of bittersweet. End of an era.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
qg_omega replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Just an insane lack of anything across the whole nation for the foreseeable future -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
dendrite replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
CC runs Apr through Oct. Then we’re back to snowball earth. -
That run was close to delivering at least 3 events by day 16. I think it’s just a matter of time until we are keying in on a specific trackable storm.
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Yeah the interior hills there. RT 15 gets up near 2,000ft in Walden and that’s a very snowy area. Some of those towns on the west slope of those hills like Stannard get a ton of snow and preserve it very well.
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Happy blizzard of 96 anniversary. I was 16yo. I remember it like yesterday. I remember all the big ones. I got about 2 feet here in the lowlands. It was a long duration storm.
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What's amazing to me is how ENE was getting several inches on ensemble snowfall maps, but they are even cut back to barely an inch or 2. Crazy.
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18z gfs was so close to a weenie run honestly
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east is a 4 letter word
