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Happy Halloween, some wet weather overnight and throughout the day but overall this looks like the nicest Halloween here in 4 years with a high around 57. 2 of the past 3 have featured trick or treating with snow on the ground so not having to dress the kids in winter gear with costumes overtop will be nice for a change.

Canada is permachinooked in the extended

Yeah. I think it was just a preview of their winter forecast to premium members so they didn't break out month by month but it seemed JB was pretty clear that the numbers hinge on December being warmer. But he also indicated there's a chance for December to come in much colder and admitted it would blow their forecast if it did. Who knows, I guess I'll have to wait for the detailed forecast to come out to see what they really think.

Don't really care what temps do coming up. Let's start shuffling the pattern and get it active. I'm a bit resigned to a mixed bag of temps and precip most if not all winter.

So, by inference that might imply the expectation of a somewhat back-loaded winter? (ETA: a +1 departure for the season actually sounds pretty amazing, relative to some of the +4 to +6 I've seen tossed around. +1 would indicate some good opportunities for solid events can occur; +4 or +6 implies shit the blinds, and "party" like it's 2022-23!).

Low 33

This is not going to get the job done: Cluster analysis of the leading two solutions from the earlier 12z guidance is lining up with the trend within 18z ensemble guidance favoring a northeast lift of low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes region. If this trend continues and remains void the splitting mid/upper-lvl low scenario, forcing for ascent for meaningful precipitation may be extremely limited over the Carolinas. These solutions still do produce light rain totals over the Mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas, but reasonable high-end amounts struggle to exceed 0.5" in 24 hours for the northern/eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain where moderate to extreme drought persists.

It’s the softball season that never ends. Had playoffs last night, we came in as 4 out of 5 (lol). Beat team 5, then went on to beat team 1 and now play in the championship game 11/13!

Low of 41. Gorgeous morning on the deck with coffee in hand.

As @40/70 Benchmark and myself suspected, due to the hostile background state, the models are showing a rapid recovery to an above normal/strong SPV by December And as unbelievable as it is, this WWB looks like it may actually rival the one back in April. This is certain to cause more warming. I feel very good about my guess of this Nino peaking in December at a traditional ONI of +4C and a RONI around +3.5C. I still think the subsurface reaches a final peak of +13C next month. Also, no surprise that the SOI has gone negative again after a very brief positive run @donsutherland1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +3.5 +2.7 +2.2 +5.3 +2.0 +0.9 +2.7 +0.2 +3.0

Still growing up here in the highlands. Growing Season lives on....may pick some veggies off plants, in late Nov, for Turkey Dinner. (Kidding..sort of)

Aren't they being considered as a future Winter Olympics host?

_ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.2 +2.0 +2.1 +2.0 +1.4 +1.4 +2.0 +1.2 +1.1

It's already dry here, as I caught only 1.22" in October, with half of that amount coming on October 1st. We could once again be completely parched come spring.

Cold start, mild middle, cold end Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Really curious how the ENSO would have been back in the Pangea years... Hotter planet with no ice caps Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Nothing wrong with that…I’ll take some warmth and some cool, and some rain…sign me up.

38.6 this morning. Colder spot in the area.

It does look a bit more active starting end of next week at least. And alternating periods of warmer and cooler but likely AN as a whole through mid Novie.

Is there some sort of new skill style on grass?