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First Call For Season's First Winter Storm Tuesday Night into Early Wednesday Heaviest Accumulations Likely North & West Synoptic Overview Eastern Mass Weather forecast a busy month of December in what promised to be an active start to the 2025-2026 winter season across the southern New England forecast area, and it now appears that Tuesday evening will mark the start of the onset of what will likely be a parade of winter storms. However, before this pattern becomes established, a strongly positive NAO will conspire with energy over the western CONUS to raise eastern heights on the east coast enough to allow one more milder rain event to track across northern New England on Sunday night. This system will head through the Canadien maritimes and into the North Atlantic, where it will help to elevate heights in the NAO domain as the system number two begins to eject out int the Tenessee valley by Tuesday morning. Heights over the east will subtly descend as the energy shifts east, and the riding builds in the vicinity of Greenland. This will displace the PV slightly further to the south and suppress the storm track just enough to provide the forecast areas with it's first winter storm of the season for early Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning, before this system also pulls away into the Maritimes. Anticipated Storm Evolution Snowfall will overspread the area from southwest to northeast late Tuesday afternoon into the early evening hours, likely around the time of the PM commute, which is important to keep in mind. Precipitation is likely to be rain from the outset over perhaps the immediate south coast, cape and islands. The snowfall should grow heavier before mixing with and changing to sleet and rain across all but the northwest third of Rhode Island, and the immediate Boston area inside of route 128 by around midnight early Wednesday AM. Some mixing with sleet is likely up to at least the Mass pike and possibly the route 2 corridor after midnight, before colder air works back in by dawn, as the system begins to pull away. Precipitation should come to an end as snow showers virtually everywhere on Wednesday morning. Delays and even some cancellations, especially north and west of Boston, are likely. Final call will likely be issued either Monday night or Tuesday morning. FIRST CALL:

He is typically forecasting for Lanco, which is very much on the fence for Tuesday. I think 90% of CTP is in good shape for our first measurable to plowable event of the season on Tuesday.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/11/seasons-first-winter-storm-likely.html

18z EPS are pretty far southeast

This one is going to come close to giving me rain, but the models say it will be snow at just over 32 degrees

It’s very good, though I was led to believe there were many more musical numbers.

That makes total sense too... probably a tenth of an inch of liquid or so ahead of Mansfield. With these good ratios, 2-3" storm total increase makes sense. Say a 9" vs 12" event.

What are the first guesses for MetroWest? West of 95 that is.

First storm of the season -- Euro scrape, GFS upper-low runner. And our new overlord, AI, is making the ICON look like it has a clue.

Time for him to be wrong. [emoji23]

Yeah, it’s still going here. Wind picking up too. We’re probably 2-3” ahead of you. Nice event to fix what could have been a disaster on the slopes. .

It's a good watch. Have only seen bits and pieces.

And give the I-95ers something to gloat about, which I absolutely hate.

Game over then. He’s never incorrect.

Agreed. The default is certainly more progressive... it has to work to amplify, like all systems do. It's why we know the Messenger ticks are a thing. It's probably a more SNE/CNE event rather than NNE.

Yeah it's a lot of work / $$ keeping the old ones going but I'm amazed by the work that went into building back in the day without all the modern tools and machinery. The sill beams on the farmhouse are roughly 12"x8" and 38ft long, laid on leveled granite foundation blocks some refrigerator-size, and the sills are still mostly level after 200+ years. I struggle to keep a small patio paver project level...

Nebraska vs Iowa game.

Thanks for clearing that up.

Has anyone seen any flakes flying from this system yet?

The great thing is that it is late fall and early winter. Should have more chances. Early December is bonus.

you know i’m not IMBY-ing, but i do think that the overall pattern favors less consolidation and an outcome more similar to the foreign guidance. it’s progressive

If I was in Lanco, I’d be concerned about Tuesday, but I think most of us are in good shape for at least our first measurable to maybe plowable event this season.

Long duration WAA can’t fail too bad. It’s not one of those quick hitting systems that depend entirely on heavy rates.

One thing to watch are the consistent pulses of southern stream energy popping up in the long range. That’s been another fly in the ointment the past few years. Last year was a parade of northern stream pieces of energy squashing the southern stream. That’s fine for a novelty event but if you want a big dog, we need less of that this winter.