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I thought you were the good luck guy?

I think he had almost continuous hissy fits after the Pre Christmas blizzard until the late Jan snowstorm in the 2009-10 winter, which ended up the snowiest ever for many of us.

SREF

Almost get a classic El Nino N PAC there late in the ensembles with an Aleutian low and +PNA ridge.

does it show below 0 for central park?

Yeah, been thinking the same thing. You'd think more should get pulled along the Front.

It's complicated in a comparatively simplistic way

Excellent post. Understanding models (strengthens and weaknesses) is vital to forecasting success. Ultimately, forecasting is much more than just looking at the output of a model or comparing a few products. A forecaster should always be asking themselves, "does this output makes sense given the pattern"...obviously when dealing with a time range beyond 3-4-5 days there is always, always going to be a degree of uncertainty, however, asking yourself that question and working through the details to answer that question can provide enough of a basis for a forecaster to determine with confidence, the likelihood of a scenario occurring. I'm with you, the ceiling for AI should be that of current NWP and I think it should be thought of as AI being a compliment to current NWP. For example, if AI can do a better job at assessing the current state (initialization) and more quickly, integrate this into NWP. I believe this has always been done (again, a reason Euro was superior for a while) but with the advancement in technology this could vastly improve NWP. For your response to Scott, that is a very underrated understanding regarding re-analysis datasets. I think we take them at too much of a face value but need to understand there are limitations with them as well. For example, if you look at the ERSSTv6 and compare it to v5 and previous versions, you can see there are some large discrepancies in various areas of the globe, particularly earlier days when much of the re-analysis outside of ship routes was created via extrapolation methods.

Exactly how I feel honestly. It’s cool for a day. I guess I don’t want it to be 70 right after but nothing cures the post-storm sadness like something lined up after.

Should have had that guy Tully start it.

He promised not till next December though if we get this one.

Where I agree with you is that if you pre-define a synoptic setup as simple (moist southerly flow into a cold dome), then it is comparatively simple. We do get hung up on semantics. But I also think we oversimplify and broad-brush weather events with terms that are too general.

Down to 34 here - breezy

Oddly enough once the snow stops he doesn't care. He will complain 3 days after a HECS though if there is nothing else to track on the models

Yeah, one of these years we will make a run....I scored more 16"+ events living in Delaware for 7 years than I have being up here for 10 years...odd times

The temp is falling during the afternoon here as expected. Down to 34 now. Wind feels very cold.

Almost 2:30 pm and I've 'warmed' to 22.9/8.0. In and out of clouds and occasional flurries with NW 20-30 mph winds. Feels quite wintery.

Holding out hope:

I did start the one last year that turned into the RDU-NE NC storm so I was riding a hot streak. Kinda like Riley reeling off wins vs app state and wake I thought I’d figured it out

Sledgehammer and we all know it would probably be Ji

Imho thats going to be more an Aleutian low signal than an Alaska proper vortex. That look presented actually gets us in +PNA territory and verbatim would move the PNA ridge axis near the benchmark (Idaho iirc). I would be ok with the epo easing a bit as this look takes shape going into the waning days of Jan/early Feb. One thing seems certain at least, anyone that declared winter over is likely in for a rude awakening shortly.

I disagree with this. ECMWF and NOAA/NWS should be the baseline. AI can use verification to improve modeling beyond the current state of physics-equations-based modeling, which is limited by its programming and unable to quickly iteratively improve.

I know some where expecting more for sure out of last night. Great pics Buckethead!!

Cold dry winters were always a thing.... but it hurts that much more when 80% of our winters are warm now...we can't afford to waste cold ones.

Gotcha. sounds like a little road trip will lift your spirits. Thats how I get by when winters suckin down here...head north or northwest.