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Phoenix is on track to tie its all-time record highest minimum temperature today. Minimum temperatures of 90° or above and 95° or above have increased in frequency in recent years due to a combination of the urban heat island effect and anthropogenic climate change.

Steady rainfall this evening.

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right, here I am stuck in the middle with....unfortunately no one.

Clouds wtf..will they be out by tomorrow

Maybe in October on the day of peak leaf color we will get a big noreaster and it'll dump all the leaves in a couple hours. I'd be for it if it means a couple inches of rain.

For some reason mine didn't come with the rods. It's like they forgot to pack them. Luckily the birds have plenty of better choices for perches around here so hopefully it won't be an issue.

You guys are making me so jealous! It wont get this cool for me til November down here.

I agree. I suspect that 1982-83 likely had at least a comparable streak. Unfortunately, I have found no daily data prior to 1991.

Looking through the JMA archives of VP anomalies. There's not really many years at all that are comparable in the strength of the Walker cell at this stage of the evolution. It's really only the super nino years that are comparable at all to this year thus far(basing this on the ONI data). The strong el nino years such as 57-58, 65-66, 72-73, 91-92, 23-24 don't even hold a candle to the VP obs over the past 30 days of this year. 87-88 also gets included in that group. That one gets a little bit of a shout out being as it's far closer in this regard than any of the others I listed. However that was a 2nd year event so I'm guessing that has something to do with it. That leaves 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 super nino's which I will post below along with this year. These are the 30 day means(!) Of those 15-16 I'd say probably looks the closest match to date although I'd also say that's probably because that's the most recent one. 82-83 not terrible. 97-98 seems to have ramped up a little more slowly than we're seeing now but that one absolutely gets included. Images below are this current year followed by the other 3 in chronological order. Yeah, this one probably ends up unprecedented in strength given all of the other data available. What that would ultimately look like is anyone's guess given an inherently small sample size. Guess we'll all find out.

Man, the Euro has big-time NAO blocking in January....I don't agree with that, but tries to pull a 1966.

Buddy just body shamed CAPE like it's nothing - not cool bro

imagine speeding through a checkout line because everyone in the store can understand the text of a coupon

Off to north shore of Kauai tomorrow for a couple of weeks. Maybe get a little brush by Fausto but looks to be a remnant by the time it gets there. Doesn't look like the greatest beach weather at first but hopefully dries out a bit by next weekend.

Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through much or all of the remainder of July. The warmest spots could reach the middle 80s on occasion. Some showers or thundershowers are possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -16.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.546 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.7° (0.8° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

ERW should help kick off a strong phoon headed towarsd East Asia,both the Euro and GFS today shows it headed towards Japan,but who knows where it goes right now,East China we could really warm up into Aug here

That's just sad.

everyone knows life would be better if we exterminated the left side of the bell curve

It's all well done but ,for me, personally, b looks the most professional.

4 confirmed tornados plus area wide 1-3” and most rain in an event for some in Years We need maturity here so the half dozen whine fests about “why did this bust” was Way Off. One reason for the way off was that at 1/2pm the bust declarations were flying and the event wasnt even supposed to be underway for the many hours it did last including after dark

From nws KEY MESSAGE 2: Turning more humid and unsettled into early next week with the best odds for storms Monday PM through Tuesday PM Shortwave energy diving southeast around the prominent upper high centered over central and southern Plains will help to eventually carve out a closed upper low over the eastern Great Lakes by early next week. Expect a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage Sunday through Tuesday with peak POPs in the Monday PM-Tuesday PM window based on the latest ensemble guidance. There will likely be some level of severe and/or excessive rain risks to manage that are largely dependent on timing/upstream system evolution at this point.

About to pour an Other Half TDH ALL RIIIOT EVERYTHING NZ EDITION to leadoff Friday HH A triple dry hopped Imperial IPA. Hell of a name.

Going to be on vacation so I’m putting in early for August August DCA: +0.5 NYC: +1.2 BOS: +0.7 ORD: +0.8 ATL: +1.2 IAH: +0.3 DEN: +0.9 PHX: +1.2 SEA: +0.4

I don't think the trough parks on the EC tho... That almost never happens in JJA climo pattern/records. In fact, models will tend to over amplify that trough at this range, while getting the western N/A ridge probably closer to accurate compared to handling the east. Which ends up just being a weakness with a 500 mb flow paralleling the coast. That's why I suspect if that D8-14 range CPC temperature probability aligns with the pattern, BB is what we'd end up with in reality. Having said all that... if the CPC PNA outlook is correct, the correction vector is probably more WAR influence - if that starts emerging more and more in outlooks, that wouldn't surprise me... but WAR is also not really eye-stingin' heat, either. It goes sorta like this: Sonoran Release 102/62, WAR 92/72, Bahama Blue 82/78

It's probably 82/78 a Bahama Blue circulation mode... "Heat" is in the DP in that scenario, reflected in average highs over sweltering lows. Welcome to Nassau