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Hopefully a ring of fire pattern soon

Good day for meteorologists on Kalshi! High has been stuck at 78-81 since ~10am due to the sea breeze. Winds are still out of the SSE at ~12mph w/several hours of daytime heating remaining. Despite that, lots of "bots" are bang'n highs of 88+. This is one of those situations where humans dominate bots... Anomalous, small-scale weather. You love to see it. Judging by the distribution, looks like 65% bots vs. 35% humans (predicting the max. temperature at KBOS). The bots are too caught up on the NWS gridded forecast (expected high of 89 as of this morning).

10/4/2

Late spring brush fire threat, especially after green up. 2 yesterday in Coventry and West Greenwich RI

We are cooked

00z Euro was trying to finish as a significant move toward what you describe. It also was warm run over all. In fact, I'm not seeing a lot of "cool" either. I think this summer's sort of pattern dictated at this point. Like we'll be shifting between 65 and 90 and not 40fuckum7 and 65

As May 2026 expired while we were in SNJ, I'll put its history here. Some data are averages from nearby sites, though the 31 on 5/31 is a certainty. Avg max: 63.9 0.8 BN Warmest was 86, on the 19th. Avg min: 39.2 0.8 BN Coolest was 26, on the 4th and 9th. Mean: 51.6 0.8 BN As both March and April were AN, met spring averaged 0.7 AN. Precip: 4.17" 0.20" AN. Wettest day; 1.40" on the 15th. May 2025 was also AN, but the 10 of the 11 months thru last April were BN. Nothing out of the ordinary this May. The 2nd and the 2nd from last were windy and cold (2nd had some IP as well) but beyond those 2 days, little was particularly memorable.

I saw this Early 2026-2027 Snowfall Insight on LinkedIn:

Hager did a good job taking over all things considered but when I think VH it's Diamond Dave. I had the VH symbol (and Zeppelin) symbols all over my note/copy books for grade school. Goes w/o saying the nuns didn't dig it...

Those 3 1954 storms all had names of my relatives - cousin, aunt, great aunt chronological. Carol was nothing I can remember, probably some rain at our NNJ home. Edna was mostly dry. We flew kites in its breezes. Hazel had wind in NNJ comparable to Bob in central Maine, dumping some trees and plastering our home with pieces of tough October leaves.

Pretty big jump in the D0 category this week.

The ensembles get rid of that propensity and start to retro a trough a bit to the GL. I think second half of month turns a corner, and not just because of climo.

DPs low but it's hot... 89 ... that's about the cut-off where lower DP no longer saves... Hot day

Yep. And if you scroll thru the slp maps for each month, you can easily imagine at least one good hit down your way. January, and especially February, even show cold air/ridging pressing south along the Appalachians starting in Virginia. Here's a link to December: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026060406&fh=6

Sat looking good. WxWiz needs the the tstm "hit!" And then Scott "Ossipee" hailers moving N-S on Sun. Can't get rid of these cold 500 troughs rotating through and the blocking. If the 00z ECMWF is correct, after Sat, no sig heat or dew point (gin and) juice UFN for eastern sections.

Winter storns in the South outside of the mountains are for the most part somewhat freaky events. Thus, due to the low frequency, our snowiest or iciest winters are often from mainly just one major (or series of) winter storms at most. Examples: late Jan of 1940, Feb of 1952, mid Feb of 1958, 12/31/1963, 2/9-10/1973, 3/1-2/1980, 3/24/1983, late Jan of 1987, 1/7-8/1988, mid Jan of 1992, the ice storm of late Jan 2005, and Dec of 2018. All of these were during El Niño and these were enough to make them wintry. So, El Nino’s on average produce for wintry precip despite often being Mei Lu from just one storm on the right track (usually Gulf to off SE Coast) at the right time (when cold enough air to the N/NW being tapped into enough).

Can also see scenario where Saturday night is north of 90.. weak , dying stuff here and then Sunday is IJD to you

Decent setup for you, and do not use NMB for convective stuff.

Not even gonna chance it until it’s a virtual certainty. This time of year if fert sits on grass it totally kills the lawn under hot sun

Oh, and WxWiz will like this, there were likely several spinners in SE MA and RI for Gloria, in addition to the one confirmed in Billerica MA. Look at the PNS from WSO PVD issued 3 days after Gloria (the bulletin is cut/pasted as is - typos are real). TTAA00 KPVD 301506 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 30 1985 THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF TORNADOS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GLORIA IN THE AREA ON FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 27. 1. LOCAL POLICE IN SEEKONK MA REPORTED A TORNADO HAVING OCCURRED AT PINE STREET ON THE REHOBOTH-SEEKONK MA LINE AT APPROXIMATELY 230 PM EDT. 2. A CHARLES CINTOLO IN GLOUCESTER RI REPORTED A TORNADO IN THAT AREA. 3. REPORTER FROM THE PROVIDENCE JOURNAL STATED THAT SHE RECEIVED TWO REPORTS OF TORNADOS: A. NEAR THE BURLINGAME STATE FOREST IN CHARLESTOWN RI. B. NEAR A GOLF COURSE IN W. KINGSTOWN RI. OUTSIDE THE AREA TWEKSBURY MA REPORTED A TORNADO WITNESSED BY STATE POLICE. SUMMARIZING: IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT ALONG WITH HURRICANCE GLORIA, THERE WERE TORNADOS IN THE AREA. FORTUNATELY THEY DID NOT ADD SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE DAMAGE ALREADY DONE BY GLORIA. THERE WERE NO LIVES LOST: NO BUILDINGS BLOWN APART, ETC TO WARRANT NOT PERSONALLY INVESTIGATING THESE REPORTS. THEY WILL BE RECORDED AS HAVING OCCURED IN OUR LOCAL STORM REPORTS AND STATION CLIMATOLOGICAL HISTORY BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY WILL SERVE AS A REMINDER IN FUTURE HURRICANE EVENTS THAT TORNADOS CAN OCCUR WITH HURICANES. INCIDENTALLY) THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAD A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM 10AM EDT TO 6PM EDT FRIDAY SEPT. 1985. RAMELLA So why did they not record these are tornadoes (they are not in NCEI Storm Data - even though it says they were recorded). Probably the same reason as Bob, magnitude of HU event/wind damage overshadowed individual spinner reports. Of course, this would not happen today. Once the NWS MAR occurred in the mid-late 90s, wx verification and outreach greatly expanded, and so did what got logged in Storm Data. As added bonus, here is the LSR from WSO BDR for the July 10, 1989 spinner event. WxWiz is . I recall this report vividly. What caught my eye the most was 4.4" of rain in 1/2 hr! I believe it b/c it was a MONSTA HP beast. The sky darkened black as night for this storm. WOUS00 KBDR 111200 STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BRIDGEPORT CT 740 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 1989 LOCAL STORM REPORT FOR MONDAY JUL 10 1989 TIME COUNTY TOWN EVENT 519 PM EDT NEW HAVEN OXFORD 11/2 INCH HAIL 524 PM EDT NEW HAVEN NEAR WOODBURY 1 INCH HAIL 542 PM EDT NEW HAVEN NEW HAVEN GUST 70 KNOTS BY COAST GUARD 605 PM EDT NEW HAVEN OXFORD 4.4 INCHES RAIN 1/2 HR. 605 PM EDT NEW HAVEN HAMDEN POSSIBLE TORNADO EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO HOUSES BUSINESSES NUMEROUS INJURES. 541 PM EDT MIDDLESEX MIDDLETOWN TREES DOWN SMALL HOUSE DAMAGE 605 PM EDT NEW HAVEN NEW HAVEN EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO MANY HOUSES. THOUSANDS OF TREES DOWN. COUNTY 100,000 WITHOUT POWER. MANY INJURIES. POSSIBLE TORNADOS BY NEW HAVEN POLICE. END/FOOSE

I'm a huge VH fan and good for Dave for getting out there. But man, I just can't look. Saw VH in their prime countless times and that's how I choose to remember them.

NBM is like .20 or less . Missing out last weekend really hurt

Dropped fert and grub ex last Saturday before the hurricane. Give it a day, but I think you have a decent chance of storms.

Yep, we know.

Bob tracking farther E made all the difference, If you were in SE MA and CC, it was the BIG BLOW. You can't expect too much when an accelerating HU passes E of you location at this latitude if you are looking for wind. R++ OTOH? However sometimes wild turkey surprise occurs. Edna in Sep 1954 BOS G88KT, it highest gust on record (beat G87KT from Carol 10 days earlier), and it was out of the NW as Edna passed over CC. Edna was going ET rather quickly and I'd bet good $$ it was a sting jet over SNE. If you look at HU Fiona's epic transition S of NS in Sep 2022, that's what likely happened to Edna. Bob's landfall at BID was 90 kt, which is considerably above Gloria's (75 kt) and Belle's (65 kt) landfalls -- the strongest since Donna in 1960, so don't dis Bob! NWS BOX told me not long after Bob, they had a number of reports of "Scott spinners" on CC, but due to the extent of the straight-line wind damage and resources, they could not investigate those reports. This was 2 years before the WSR-88D was installed, which now makes it much easier to pin down spinner reports and check specific areas, never mind cameras everywhere. So the next HU that makes landfall in SNE, we'll likely see a number of spinners.