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A bit more intriguing than previous runs. Which is why disappointing is an odd characterization for something that showed improvement. Expecting most of the models to suddenly show a great solution a week out is silly. A lot of potential there. .

A word of caution: I've noticed over the years the GFS has a tendency to over amplify the back side of late phasing storms for the Piedmont. This feels to me like more of a coastal VA threat, although we normally don't get the trough to dig down to the Gulf Coast in these scenarios, so that helps

I was going to quote like 3 posts and say ‘cut’ but I didn’t want to diminish mine or anyones else's optimism.

Cautiously optimistic .

12z ai is a miss for the first threat. 19th threat it has this general look which is woof worthy. Ends up being an interior event but at this range idc, that’s really close to being ideal. One threat a time though, fun/stressful times ahead ha .

The point remains. The closer a threat, the clearer we can see its flaws. E.g, ensemble means blend and hide shortwave details that appear in closer ranges. Choosing the 2nd showcase because we don't like the look of the 1st isn't always correct. Jan 15 at one time had a very favorable "look" too.

Ukmet is over Bermuda. Is that good?

Although the events are still outside ability of the operational guidance to reliably resolve the synoptic details, the 12z guidance continues to be encouraging. It it consistent with the ongoing and incredibly orderly pattern evolution that has been underway since the start of January. In that evolution, cold should begin to return next week. Afterward, as the PNA rises, opportunities for snowfall should begin to increase. As noted previously, both severe cold and significant snowfall are unlikely through at least mid-January. The transition to a more wintry pattern probably won't be completed by then. But shortly afterward, the probability of snowfall should increase. The probability of moderate or significant snowfalls would be higher if a PNA+ can develop and then be sustained. Arctic air might begin to get involved around or after January 20th. The overall consensus in the guidance is that a general WPO-/EPO-/AO- pattern will develop just after mid-month. Such patterns in combination with a PNA+ are 1.7 times more likely to see one or more days with a 4" or above snowfall than when combined with a PNA-. Regardless of the state of the PNA, those patterns have seen measurable snowfall nearly once every five days, which is 1.6X climatology (1980-2025). As for the 12z GFS's systems during the roughly 168-hour and 222-hour timeframes, it's far too soon to resolve details. That there's activity is sufficient. In general, if things progress as has often occurred during the kind of pattern evolution described above, a delay in the first event would allow the trough more time to sharpen before the storm's development/arrival. That would increase prospects of its having a more impactful track than shown on the 12z GFS. The second system, as things currently stands, likely has the higher probability of taking an impactful track. Although its solution is different, the latter timeframe has support from the GGEM. Model skill at that timeframe is low. For now, it's more useful to stick with the overall pattern progression described above, avoid speculating over synoptic details that the guidance cannot resolve at these timeframes, and leave the details concerning potential events for later. That there's potential is what's both important and encouraging.

I like the next weekend potential better.... WB 12Z GEFS for next weekend.

Maybe I missed it but I did not see any AIGFS discussion for the 15th. Looked better at h5 I think? Trough seems stronger and tilts more negatively a smidge earlier, but still a bit too late.

this is why we look at ensembles and not OP runs

The op was nice for the 18-19 but of course the Gefs decreases overall qpf in that time period. Go figure.

Might be time to break out the Jon Hamm in the club meme as I look at the op runs.

I won’t be in town therefore it’s guaranteed to hit.

The 0z ECM at 168hr looks remarkable similar to 246hr. It easy to say now that we prefer the later threat, but when that threat gets nearer it might not look any better.

I meant because Tblizz wrote it off lol.

I’m ready to be hurt again.

I'll trade places with you...lol

you do get the sense there's incremental improvements. It's just that the flow being stressed east of the W biased ridge isn't [ probably ] going to provide an arena for chunk move in this case. Truth be told ... the position of that PNA ridge actually argues for a storm track between Detroit and Buffalo. That'd be a hoot. Hasn't been a model run yet painting that dystopian image hahaha.

40 inches over my head, definitely high chance of verifying!

Not bad at all actually.

Thanks Weather Will.i.am. Where is the love?

or you can just stay ignorant and post snow maps to add dubious value. Two paths. Glad the better one is being taken

Not gonna lie the past two days have been a nice reprise from our actually cold December and November. In a weird way my body feels like it’s late February because it’s been so long since December snow.

i fly into MHT on the 19th