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2/20 00z SREF Mean QPF 24 hours Sundat (2/22) 12z - Mon (2/23) 12z

When 00z comes in over bermuda burn after reading what did we learn.mp4

I'm jealous. Now I want Mexican and margs

Pretty juicy hrrr run for the SNH crew

There is no way that’s the bust he is referring to, it was an amazing storm north of the city and even the city never went to plain rain. Southern Westchester got 8-10” of snow followed by 2-4” of sleet. Northern Westchester and north was 14-24” with some sleet on top. Also pretty prolific wind and drifting.

Yeah but this isnt the GFS- Its a blend, and more in touch with reality

Control yourself. I don’t see an umbrella in your drink.

Ya I’m not getting excited til 12:15am if we hold the look and even make it better. If we tick back east then we are at the same spot as 12z today.

Looks like we'll be lucky to see a half inch tomorrow...but you never know.

Yeah. I’m still anticipating 3-6” here. 4” most likely. But would sacrifice it happily if it shifted the big un NW 50 miles or so

Yeah, PBP is going to be interesting

thanks

Yea, 6"+ from me points N.

I would just throughly enjoy one last 2-4in snowfall here in Whitehall to put us at or above an average winter. Would be memorable

Pbp should be extra spicy .

0z HR³ compared to 18z Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

I think the 0z will point or at least hint where we are going. Die hard weenies will keep tracking when the writing is on the wall...life of a weenie I guess?

I mean gfs gives you 30

I think that huge shift west on the Euro is the step we needed for a true convergence/compromise on the models. I'm still thinking a mostly SE of I-95 hit with coastal Jersey and Delmarva taking the brunt of it. Areas to the NW will see some snow, potentially most of it from the IVT. There will unfortunately be a screw zone most likely. However, we could still see additional ticks west (or east) on all guidance and really any solution is still fair game. Ensemble probabilities tell me that, if I was from Delaware up along coastal Jersey right now, I'd be feeling okay. TBH, gut feeling is that something like the 18z AIFS is closest to the actual solution. But with how atrocious these models have been, it's hard to lean one way or the other.

It don’t run out past 84 so ya would prob be good

The biggest takeaway from 18z for me is that the GFS coastal bomb scenario went from impossible to unlikely. A HUGE upgrade in hopium

18z Euro much much different. Not the GFS but much closer

Not if it means we get creamed Monday...have the 6" tomorrow.

16-17 wasn't all that good in my region and the final straw was march. we actually did have about 5 of sleet and had to shovel it; not much rain. nothing much happened here until 2021, with the march 2018 storms underperforming for us.