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If Ukie or Ike win out I'm moving to Aspen.

Time for the crazy HRRR runs

NBM does tend to run a model cycle or 2 behind

Ethan Clark

Did you advise the Weymouth DPW that? They came by to widen my street and put all this shit at the end of my driveway.

Just booked a cabin in Gatlinburg off Ski Mountain road at about 2500 feet. That location never fails me when their is flow involved. Leaving tomorrow and look forward to spending a weekend in this thread with all of you!

Scooter is going to get a foot

Their point and click is mostly rain with temps in the 40's, then a period of snow at the end FWIW

Gonna need some HH data…get that into the models, and that’ll clear this up fast.

The forcing they are talking about will be tremendous with this setup. I cannot stress that enough. When we have very strong forcing and the temps are extremely cold great things will happen.

1996 was like that for us (not saying this is anything like that). We were forecast for 1-3 3-4 days out, then 3-6, then 6-12 and then 24 hours out it was going to be the storm of the century. And it delivered lol

Gonna need this thing to dig further west. 12z trends were the opposite. Still in the game but can’t afford any additional trending east

Yes sir. It was fabulous too.

This is definitely what happened; one of my close weather buddies lives on western LI and he was basically shut out on most models until NAM started the northern trend. He went from expecting 2-4" to 1-2 feet in the last few days leading up to the storm.

Well...technically that 3rd one you list, 0/0, would be either undefined or infinite!!!

tick west. Nothing exciting. It's going to likely look like it's last run.

midsection of the country went from early spring to deep winter in the space of 7-10 day

I was about to say that the NAM didn't exactly "score" anything big for the 2016 blizzard, as every single piece of guidance hammered that storm well in advance, even well before the NAM was within range. But then I saw your location and did wonder if the NAM pushed it farther up for NYC to get hit (I believe 24" fell there?)? Honestly don't recall because at that point nobody around here was really looking outside this region. And that was a much more predictable situation, relatively speaking.

Not sure if our host is working on scoring results, I had a look at all entries, these were lowest totals I found (if you are not in this unofficial list, your total error was >20"): (no guarantees of this list matching official contest results) 1. Digityman _____________ 9.3 2. GregRups21 ___________ 10.9 3. WeatherGeek2025 ____ 11.7 4. LVBlizzard ____________ 12.7 t5. BRSno, snywx ________ 13.7 7. GATECH ______________ 14.5 8. JM1220 ______________ 14.7 9. CPCantmeasuresnow_ 16.0 (using entry of measured 8.5 CP, would be 14.3 using entry of actual 10.2 CP) 10. hudsonvalley21 ______ 16.5 11. RJay _________________ 18.0 12. Don Sutherland ______ 18.8 13. Neg NAO _____________19.1 14. Snowlover11 _________20.0 15. powpow ____________ 20.1 ======================= (rest are 20.1 +) (RS was 21.8 despite lowest error BOS) x. TriPol _________________ 20.9 _ note this entry has 0 for PHL if that was a typo the total would have been less (in this calculation it is 9.3" of the total) (this entry would be 4th if the 0 for PHL was meant to be 9, or 10) NOTE: Of all entries, four were below 12.6" actual for Albany, none were above actual 23.2" for Boston. It appears that Hartford was our most accurate consensus forecast followed by DC, generally too low for PHL and NYC and too high for ALY

Ooops

Pretty expansive snow cover. Lake Erie is essentially almost all frozen over. Lake Huron is building some ice cover. Been a while since we've seen such expansive snow cover east of the Rockies. North and even South Carolina will pickup some solid snow depth over the weekend to fill in the map even more.

Enjoying following this thread and hoping that here in the New Bern/Crystal Coast area we have a nice (and rare) snow!

The lobe is slightly west compared to 12Z

According to the new king, NextWeather 2.0, there IS something to keep an eye on for that time frame. .

NAM popping a low over Arkansas at hour 33. Are we about to get NAMed?