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Hmmmm

I would agree. With a -PNA the GFS is the best scenario for our area. There are literally two 1045 arctic highs keeping that storm down. I'd like to see a neutral PNA such that our margin for error is more.

Looks like most of it comes from a wound up storm system that tracks from AR to the NC/SC border from FH246-270. Verbatim would support some severe weather in LA/MS on the 23rd, too.

The map you just posted isn’t actually a “traditionally” neg PNA, but a transient gradient pattern where the index “computes” negative for a few days. Mote like a bootleg -PNA. However, I would feel better if we didn’t have troughing in the pac NW. We’d want ridging there to maintain the cold supply as the storm approaches here (even as a cut off low or energy undercutting the +pna ridge). I do like the atlantic side, we have a PV pressing down south towards us with confluence. The biggest failure risk is that the western trough gets stronger, the TPV retreats north or NW, and the eastern ridge pumps, and the storm cuts. So far we haven’t been trending in that direction, though. The other end of the spectrum is where the PNA is so positive (with -EPO) that it suppresses the storm south. Right now that is the most unlikely scenario for that window. In short, with -EPO and a strong TPV in SE canada, we’d root for a neutral PNA if not slightly positive. In this case, too much -PNA, cutter. Too much +PNA, suppression. But generally, we get our best snows snowstorms when the PNA is positive. btw this is why we like El Ninos. STJ undercuts the +PNA, which delivers the cold while we get gulf moisture from a STJ wave. Way simpler than trying to thread the needle during a Nina.

RGEM is cooking up something sweet

ICON trying to be frisky for the 18th. Sorry don’t know whose storm that one is. Lol

Actually, that was all from one storm from hour 252 to 300. Insane storm.

Not bad

I’m surprised at how long this thaw is. Really defined the first half of the month aside from the first 6 days that were average or well below average. Tomorrow is the 14th and we’ll still be 10 degrees above average. At this point it’s not a thaw, it’s a running theme that CONUS has been quite warm this month

That’d be a fun drive out to a long weekend at Wisp with the wife and kids in the family truckster. I’m in.

Yes only 34.6 for me. I'm hoping the 0Z run shifts the 40-50 inch line a little east.

I understand how a neg pna typically hurts us but I'm wondering how else we get a wave to track like the 18z shows. I understand that this is a traditionally -pna with a low in the southwest. However, like you said it is progressive so this low moves eastward and throws moisture up in front of it (alongside the WAA and ridging as a result of it impacting the flow). So to my (flawed) understanding wouldn't having higher heights in the pna region basically mean our storm doesn't exist/is far weaker? Or alternatively the pna is more positive which results in the storm rolling off the ridge at a higher latitude before dipping eastward in a trough, which seems like it would cause even worse thermal issues. I guess I'm just struggling to see how else we get a SWFL event without a negative or neutral PNA.

Though it’s not easy without 6,34, and 43. They should all be back soon

It was like I watched two different teams for periods 1/2 and period 3 tonight.

Good summary for you by LWX - snipped the portion about Friday into Saturday: KEY MESSAGE 3...A low pressure system may bring snow to the Allegheny Mountains Friday through Saturday night. One, possibly two low pressure centers will meander through the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday as a series of shortwave troughs result in amplifying long wave troughing into the eastern US. There may be some light snow showers along the Allegheny Mountains on Friday, but the higher chances will arrive Friday night through Saturday night as the main trough approaches. Temperatures may attempt to rise above freezing Saturday in some of the valleys before the cold front pushes through, but profiles will be cold enough for all snow for most locations along and west of the Allegheny Front. Accumulations resulting in travel disruptions are possible. To the east of the Alleghenies, there are mixed signals whether any precipitation falls, but it will be related to the push of warm advection Saturday morning and/or the cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon/evening. Some snow or a mix could occur depending on the timing of any precipitation, but at the moment, impacts appear limited at the lower elevations. For temperatures, Saturday is expected to be the warmest day of the weekend before the cold front pushes through.

Caps do this shit all the time - these mid-season periods where they look like garbage for a bunch of games in a row.

High today was 47, still 43 now. deep winter according to some!

Let’s gooooo Caaaaps!! That was the best 3rd period of hockey they played all year. Ethan Frank is a beast! Awesome W in OT! PS—first two period I was literally booing my tv. lol. They better fix some stuff.

are watches up yet?

Normally a negative PNA would dump the cold west of us causing storms to cut, pumping the SER. In this case, hopefully its more transient but atm we may have temp/mixing issues as storms attempt to cut while cold air presses it south. We can hope it continues to trend in our favor as @Chris78 just showed a few posts above. A mildly negative or neutral PNA shouldn’t hurt in our case.

AI GFS/ AI ENS both came W/NW for the Sun 18th wave fwiw

Hey man. Good to hear from you. Glad that you are liking where we are headed. Lets just hope baroclinic zone wavers south for some of these. SWFE's are some of my favorite, as frequency is usually every couple days, and ya just need to see what side of the snow fence you are on for each of them.

The 24h period between noon tomorrow and noon Thurs looks like its going to be wild... 3k Nam has 2m temps going from 41 to 10. I'm expecting 3-4" on the ground and still coming down by the time I get up there and really hoping GFS is right. 18z Kuchera showed about a foot

My family has already called me alarmist for next weekend, so I’m trying to temper my expectations. Looks like it could be a multi-day event with double digit payoff. Can’t be upset about that, but can’t get too excited yet for we all have been too hyped this far out before.