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6z is a big rainstorm to for most lol

NYC had no trouble dropping to 3° since the winds stayed up throughout this Arctic outbreak. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=knyc

Neither rain nor snow nor sleet should stop these reenactments!

Not sure if we dipped below overnight; I forgot to check. 0 currently.

I don’t think this particular threat is high probability SE of 95. You’re right that area is in a double bind. Any stronger wave will initially try to gain latitude in the Midwest because there is some ridging there. It will get blocked by the Atlantic flow eventually but without arctic air in place not sure what the “Win” scenario for SE of 95 is. Even if things go the way we want it’s probably more a 95 NW threat. Even the snowier solutions were indicating that.

Then stop following the weather and posting here if it’s cooked. It will be warm enough soon for reenactments.

welcome spring?

Also models showing something that following week Lots to track whether they hit or not

no thanks - cold rain or freezing drizzle rain on top of a snowpack is no fun at all IMO- but I see it's your "thing" by your screen name

Yes it did. I was debating whether to say that or wait another run to see If it’s a blip

Gone on euro ai. Back broken.

I’ll be fine with 1-3 refresh and then track the bigger one next weekend

Won't even approach records though as they are in a whole nother league... double digits in the negatives for records..

Id lean against it also, But I never right it was likely so maybe I’ve gone from giving it a 40% to a 20% chance. But the adjustment we need is still minor, a stronger pacific wave ejecting. How many times did we have a snow threat at 150 Hours and that trend hurt us by causing a more amped wave to trend north? It happens all the damn time, when we don’t want it to! Why can’t I happen when We need it? Because we are living in a simulation programmed by someone who was hurt in a past life my a mid Atlantic snow weenie and the whole purpose of this simulation is to inflict the maximum amount of emotional trauma on DC snow lovers.

Recent cycles have ejected significant energy and the outcome in those cases has been a low cutting west/ Miller B. 6z GFS does the latter, but the coastal gets going at our latitude. Still a range of possibilities imo. Timing with energy moving into/through the 50-50 region is also going to be a key factor in the outcome. Everything is on the move.

Snowy Tuesday night and next Sunday. Machines

-3 low but wind is pretty meh here.

Is the cold thick?

In that regard, 6z Eps did improve over 0z with the stronger wave and the trough off the east coast moving out quicker. Enough? Who knows at this point.

Current temp of 5 is the low. This has to go down as one of the colder Super Bowl Sundays in history. Just frigid. Although I agree with what @Itstrainingtime said yesterday, that I didn’t really notice the winds being bad here all day. The house never made the sounds it typically does in high winds, perhaps the slight change in direction was enough to mitigate but it just didn’t seem that serious here.

Brutal cold right down to the shoreline. Not often you see BDR HVN and GON approach 0. Wind chills 13 to 22 below @ 7AM

We are still far enough out for that to adjust again. We need that Baja wave to eject stronger and the Atlantic flow to be slightly less suppressive. It wouldn’t take much, an adjustment well within a typical 150 hour error, but we’ve been so unlucky for so long that I think we juts assume nothing good will happen. Which given our climo is usually right. Snow here isn’t a “fair” game. There are like 10 major variables and we need almost all of them to go right. There are way more losing combinations than winning ones so every threat is more likely to fail. I mean even in the rare cases when we get the flow to be cold enough then we have to worry the storm gets squashed or goes south of us! But eventually if we keep playing we will roll the right combination and get lucky.

Will wait until 84 hours out to be certain, but I’m starting to think that we’ve lost this one. Maybe it’ll morph into a minor event?