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  2. GaWx
    The new relative OISST (not ERSST) has just been released and the change from July jibes well for Nino 3.4 with the slope of the graphs we’ve been following (though as I’ve also been saying the weeklies/last 2 months are notably cooler than what the cyclonicwx graphs have been suggesting). 2026 7 2.84 1.73 0.34 1.38 2026 8 3.35 2.52 0.11 1.78 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_mthsst9120.txt This 1.78 is a new record high (back to 1981) for August Nino 3.4 as it barely beats the 1.74 of 1997. Here are the warmest Augusts since 1981: 2026 1.78 1997 1.74 2015 1.30 1987 1.24 1982 1.19 1991 0.82 2002 0.80 1994 0.72 2004 0.71 2023 0.63 Note that Nino 3 rose twice as much and Nino 4 fell 0.23! Also, Nino 1+2 rose the 2nd most at 0.49. All of this indicates that this Nino has been becoming increasingly E based and that the W portion of Nino 3.4 is what is holding it back vs model projections had been. Note that Nino 3.4 rose only 0.4C from the July avg to the Aug avg. I say “only” because several models were suggesting a record rapid rise of ~1C. It remains to be seen what the rise was per ERSST, but it’s clear that August didn’t warm nearly as much as model consensus had suggested, which has caused some at least near-term cooling of progs in some models’ recent runs. Here’s the latest OISST chart through Sept 1st: STILL no sign of resumption of warming though it is likely going to resume soon with it practically flat the last 31 days! The CDAS (not relative) agrees with the continuing flatness:
  3. AlexD1990
    some rotation on velocity scans near @CAPE
  4. mappy
    Happy for you! How’s the rain tho?
  5. Herb@MAWS
    0.46” imby/Columbia as rain winds down.
  6. aldie 22
    Dumping pretty good
  7. Chinook
    London ONT may have a severe or tornado warning right now
  8. The Iceman
    HRRR showing an overnight threat as 2 separate MCS impact the area. One in the 06z time frame that takes the just about the same line as earlier and another towards daybreak through SE PA and NJ. RGEM also shows overnight convection.
  9. frd
    Back to back days with severe thunderstorm warnings here. Last nigh took down multiple trees in the surrounding areas, 1.05 inches of rain last night and this today. Actually surprised that we are having these storms here, as the probabilities were rather low just a couple days ago.
  10. WxWatcher007
    Pac putting on a show now. I looked at ensembles today and I've perked up. Looking at the big ensemble, the turn has definitely trended east in the last few cycles. This is the 00z and I'm guessing 12z will be a bit further east.
  11. alexj7
    This and Aug 27th were the best two storms of the year on the Rockville/Gaithersburg border. At least for lightning. It intensified right as it went down the I-270 suburb corridor.
  12. dailylurker
    The summer of the severe warned storms that don't even produce thunder lol
  13. SolidIcewx
    Poor guy on a tower as the winds and rain move in.
  14. weatherwiz
    I am going to miss being able to just throw on shorts and short sleeved shirt after showering in the morning. Here it is September and I’m still wearing shorts. I’ve adapted quite a bit over the past few years
  15. GaWx
    OHC monthly rose to a new record high that last month had set (note these aren’t adjusted for GW in a “relative” sense, but they’re still very impressive): 2025 11 -0.02 -0.33 -0.46 2025 12 0.26 0.01 -0.03 2026 1 0.64 0.45 0.49 2026 2 1.08 1.02 1.15 2026 3 1.38 1.39 1.36 2026 4 1.85 2.07 2.24 2026 5 1.67 1.97 1.99 2026 6 1.79 2.14 2.26 2026 7 2.03 2.50 2.96 2026 8 2.19 2.75 3.20 The following image is for the same longitudes as that for the 3rd column and it jibes fairly well: Prior to 2026, this had been the record high for the last 2 columns: 1997 10 1.35 2.05 2.56
  16. IrishRob17
    Nope, closing in on 1” here. Not severe but some decent thunder and torrential rains.
  17. Kmlwx
    Beneficial rain in Colesville. A touch of thunder but that's it (so far)
  18. GramaxRefugee
    Gusty rain just hitting Annapolis about 13:35 No T&L AFAICT
  19. Chinook
    large storms already NW of Toronto
  20. WxUSAF
    NAM has been going out with a whimper this storm season. It has struggled in almost every event. I agree we’re probably down until tomorrow sometime.
  21. Chinook
    Hurricane Karina has been 125kt from last night into this afternoon. Just add a "T" and you've got Hurricane Katrina!
  22. Chinook
    Honestly I will say that I have not checked that specific map very often. It's not of particular interest, day to day, for me. It seemed like some individual days in the 2016 El Nino were very high like +0.8C or something. For example, Feb 2016 is listed as +0.817C on that web site. The recently monthly anomaly values, like July and August 2026, are high (on that web site), +0.764C and +0.942C. So that's pretty insane.
  23. forkyfork
    not one model showed that cluster
  24. aldie 22
    Radar definitely exploded out here
  25. arlwx12
    Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 115 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD... Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 114 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Fort Smallwood State Park to 16 nm north of Key Bridge to 24 nm northwest of Tidal Basin to 31 nm northwest of Reagan National Airport, moving south at 25 knots. HAZARD...Wind gusts 34 knots or greater.
  26. Terpeast
    At least its showing up on modeling, now lets see if it actually verifies.
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