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  2. Hopefully the water temps being 31-35 degrees help out keeping things cool
  3. @Ji Unlike the 6z run yesterday which had a perfect phase with the NS vorticity digging southward in behind the SS energy at the right time, the latest 6z run has a 'bad' phase. That NS piece is strong and gets involves too late, but rapidly intensifies what was a weak surface low, and its initially too close to the coast.
  4. Thoughts unchanged. This one will take a miracle to snow outside of n and w.
  5. Manchester barely had a dusting. That surprised me when I got to work. I thought for sure there would be more here.
  6. We are due to catch a break on some sort of phasing TBH, so I wouldn't be shocked in that regard. Anyway, I feel safe in saying that the monkey if off of my back at 49.5"....at long last, an approach to normal snowfall appears imminent, as forecast last fall.
  7. Would have thought blocking would start to show up on the ensembles
  8. It’s not non-zero but I hope people don’t think I’m being negative. Like others, I’m trying to look at it from a met point of view and it just seems very difficult to get something good here. Classic thread a needle. Like has to be just right needle.
  9. Looking past Monday, we mild up and then I could see an overrunning scenario as some guidance indicates.
  10. Yup...second half relaxation like January. I do think we get one more shot in early March minus the brutal cold.
  11. Agree, but willing to keep an open mind. I hedged against in my update last night.
  12. I’m talking the overall pattern. Don’t really see signs of blocking and trough backs ass up into GOAK which usually means a boring pattern.
  13. Seems like a situation where if you get the goods, dynamics will suffice...just ask Tip
  14. I was skiing with my daughter for a bit last night. It was stunning out... just perfect. Very little wind and medium sized flakes
  15. Yeah. Timing in our area meant they could clear what was needed... plus it was pretty minor in accumulations. I forget what time I heard our plow. I will have to snowblow the end of my driveway later today...the rest I will leave to melt over the next 3-4 days
  16. I just see a repeat of my childhood. From 1970 to 1999 it seemed to always change to rain, suppressed, clippers etc. There is a reason CPK only had 4 above average snowfall seasons inb30 years. 1994 was extremely frustrating outside of a couple storms as it was colder than this year and we still repeatedly changed to ice and rain.
  17. 1.5” at my house a bit less in downtown Greenfield.
  18. Ya 6z euro shows that. Monster rainstorm. Hopefully not
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