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Storm potential January 17th-18th
WeatherGeek2025 replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
legit heavy snow and accumulating now -
Now up to 4” OTG. Roads are terrible here.
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Another Coating of Snow Saturday - "It's all we Got"
Spanks45 replied to Sey-Mour Snow's topic in New England
Easily moderate, borderline heavy snow right now, temp has leveled off just below freezing.....looks beautiful out there atm -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
CoastalWx replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Yeah not a bad first guess. Not including today, I think anybody over 6 is in a narrow zone. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
SnowGoose69 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Still looks concerning that W Canada may get wiped out again by the EPO shift though I think its just a brief one but despite the end of ensembles showing a +PNA look again its pretty mild since Canada gets torched the last few days of the month by that transitional period. Could be 2/5 or 2/7 before we see things be cold enough and I am just not sure how much longer thereafter we can hold this pattern. Its logically going to go Nina February at some stage. I felt by 2/10 but maybe its later. -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
Modfan2 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
We have dry ground in the 395 corridor in E CT, always can adjust up! -
Storm potential January 17th-18th
SnoSki14 replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
I'm very conflicted about tomorrow and so are models. Thermals and dynamics are a concern -
Another Coating of Snow Saturday - "It's all we Got"
Sugarloaf1989 replied to Sey-Mour Snow's topic in New England
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Its the op so grain of salt, but geez....look out West says stj is just beginning to warm up. And those looks up top and out West are chef's kiss
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Damage In Tolland replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
That has major icestorm written all over it . -
First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
WinterWolf replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Most of the public out this way don’t even know there could be snowstorm tomorrow here…so you’re spot on. -
Hoping I get 1.5”+ tomorrow
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First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
Baroclinic Zone replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
People need to realize that the NWS is updating their maps on the fly. It may take them 6-8hrs to digest modeling and update appropriately. I saw no issues with that graphic earlier this AM. They issue those based upon level of confidence. Got a peak at the rest of 12z guidance, save for Ukie and Euro sweets. Some beefy solutions in them. Looks like the 12a GFS op and 12z GEFS are now on the eastern edge of guidance. -
Hm...perhaps the stj waking up could help with that?
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Storm potential January 17th-18th
ILoveWinter replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
Coming down pretty hard now in the UWS and with these rates it’s just starting to stick to car tops and colder surfaces. Would need to sustain this for any chance at a few inches. -
Thats a very reasonable forecast, IMO. 0.5-1” with colder areas (NNW) and areas seeing more precip (east) seeing the upper end of that range is a very common sense climo based approach to a storm that’s largely going to miss us. Could we boom and many of us see 1-3”? Sure, it’s possible… but mt holly isn’t going to put out a new map based on the RAP and HRRR 24 hours out
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Unclear if the 25th is the big one or 29th, or both. But 25th can hit followed by an Archabault near the 29th as the NAO briefly flips positive. Loving the loaded pattern. Sometimes the last in succession when a tellie flips is the one we do this hobby for, so we'll see.
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Has anything really changed though? We still lack an established cold high. We're still relying on cold air chasing moisture. I guess higher qpf allows more dynamic cooling?
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GGEM waves hello
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First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us
WxWatcher007 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Really only get one shot at this given how close we are to onset. Folks won’t pay attention to numerous evolving maps imo. Makes sense to take the time to get it right. -
Storm potential January 17th-18th
Stormlover74 replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
Fwiw ukie is pretty light for tomorrow. Just an inch or two outside eastern LI -
I could see another 1" - 3" for Carroll, northern Baltimore/Harford/Cecil tomorrow.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
MGorse replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Impressive! -
Storm potential January 17th-18th
SnowGoose69 replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah, no high to the north as I said. I don't really love this setup but I do think that the air mass might be just cold enough that we get accumulation. I'd just go lower than snow maps though. I don't think anyone is seeing 5 or 6 inches. -
Storm potential January 17th-18th
NorthShoreWx replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
Nice day here. 42⁰ It looked for a while like the sun might peak through the clouds.
