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For those wanting to understand the synoptics of the pattern and why the GFS trended better, it's mainly related to the upper low over the northern Atlantic. In the older days, this feature was/is referred to as the New Foundland low or "50/50" low, which forms near the 50W/50N longitude. It's a prevalent feature during -AO patterns which features lower heights over the CONUS and northern Atlantic, while higher heights build into the northern latitudes. This upper low acts as a way to slow down the pattern and induce additional cutoff lows upstream (in this case it would be our storm). The problem is if it's too strong it will suppress or shear out any attempts at this feature. This is a common model fault especially during these types of extreme -AO patterns. It's also a reason why commonly see these sytems trend NW as we draw closer. We want to see this 50/50 low continue to trend quicker and exit faster into the Atlantic. This allows the heights over the east coast to rise and give us a better chance at a cutoff with at least a positive tilt, which will throw back Atlantic moisture.

Two negatives thus far today. A trend SE with SLP track and no discernible trend to close off further north

Time 2 get nautical

Maybe its wrong.

Lots of big hits in there.

The clustering of sfc low positions gives better info than median, while median is better for looking at scalar variables like temps/QPF/snowfall amounts. You can see lots of western clustering to the left of the mean low

It’s really just some small tweaks to where the low closes off, kicker, etc and we’re back to an absolute bomb for 95% of us. To be honest if this one really hits the snow will be deeper than even 2010-11 and I have no clue where it’ll go.

Too true

Baby steps.

Yes but you would expect its ensemble 'spread' to consolidate as we get closer as well. So range of ops 'jumping' becomes noise

7h looks saturated. 850 dry. My ignorance but death band should be much farther inland?

Not saying its locked in..but would not shock me if some HiRes spits out big numbers...extreme cold at 850, saturated 850s, plus their fine resolution = a model like the NAM hitting the Powerball for ingredients lol (whether its right or wrong who knows 100% yet)

If the RRFS model run verifies, we riot

For those interested.

I think you will find a stronger vortmax is going to dig south too, It probably would not hurt if we could start the process a bit north and west of where it is now to tilt the trough more negative sooner.

At 10/1. The app that I have been using is showing 20-1 Kuchera. .

Issue here will be winds. If we get snow we’ll also getting 50-60 mph winds probably

You are 100% correct!

Guys, I’m in Pi Planning today…stop distracting me by posting potential stemwinder nor’easters that have no mixing issues inland.

Lean left, left!

Not exactly the models I want in my foxhole

Richmond doesn’t get HECS though so not way those solutions verify.

Gefs were good but 6z was better 12z AIGFS Did trend better

We've been dry for months on end and have had dry conditions all but one summer in the past 5 with severe drought at times. Not sure why you think it'll be any different in April.