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This is a sounding from south of 40 on the low res NAM...it shows the DGZ fully saturated. But for some reason the lift disappears only in the DGZ (mountains alone would create some lift.) So to me there is an error either in the Sharpy or algorithm. Problem is that model is ingested into the NBM = faulty NBM. Since it seems most offices now solely rely on the NBM...

I'm sensing a theme here as this thing has trended poorly... "moving quickly and entering the back side of the L/W..."

Lower outputs today. Objectively for most. If you’re far enough west and south or far enough east you’re probably feeling good. Everyone else is rightfully nervous. I also don’t have a good feeling at the moment .

It's funny how you never want to be in the best spot too far out because you know it's going to shift. But I'm in the Orange County dry slot and I just know that thing will not budge from here on out. Dreadful.

2/5-2/6 has been showing up so deep winter continues.

I agree, just get this out of here at this point and move on. There’ll be more chances before the cold lets up.

I am starting to have a bad feeling this could be another 1-3 snoozer in Raleigh but we shall see how it plays out. I don't like this feeling right now.

GFS showing a clipper? frontal passage? for the 5th

Owie.

12Z GEFS MEAN went up:

Still not bad .

I'm worried about the thermal conditions we'll see if the storm exists. The 6z Euro AI shows my worry pretty well when looking at the 850mb/wind chart It has the 850 low right over the great lakes and bringing in warm air from the Gulf. While we get some grace by our cold conditions leading in its not like we have a high to the north to save us. Just don't really know what the upside to this storm would be? The CMC H5 vort shows that maybe we could get a storm if we get the pass under us but otherwise I don't think a more negative trough would help us due to the thermal issues it would bring. Just not really enthused about the setup besides maybe a clipper like storm; but even that may just be a mix/rain

When you see the models give you big numbers you gotta keep your expectations in check, and not get to greedy knowing where you live otherwise the actual amount you do get will seem underwelming. Keeping my expectations around the 2 to 4 inch range, and I’ll be happy to get that since I haven’t seen more than 2 inches in years.

I just dont see it. It’s not gaining any latitude and then pushing east.

Ensembles are better at longer lead time to get an idea of the likelihood of a storm, i.e. 40 or 50%. We definitely were in the game a few days ago given the setup. But they smooth things out too much because of outliers and lower resolution so closer in we use the op models and it’s clear now there are a bunch of negative factors getting in the way of a big storm outcome that they pick up on.

anyone else look as close up as you can to these maps and try to figure out how you can get another tenth of of inch of snow!!! It's kind of a hobby of mine. Yep, I think my house is right on that line between 12.3" and 12.9". I'm going with 12.9!! Then the next map comes out and it's says 1.5". You go into cliff dive...noooooo Then the next map is saying 5.8" and 6.9". We back baby....we going with 6.9"!!! It's a rollercoaster. I might be bi-polar as well.

this is starting to feel like our February 2025. The upside is the cold pattern appears to be stable for the next few weeks....more chances ahead. I will enjoy whatever falls.

I’m not saying I’m buying the gfs since it’s a poor model and has tended to overdo qpf and snow, but fwiw this shows FAY with one of their biggest snows on record with 12-15” in the area! Wow, that would be crippling. Also, in case this were to somehow verify closely: when was the last times the entire NC got 5”+ from one storm? Not to be forgotten, this gives me ~0.3”, a rare event down here!

it's ridiculous lol. only reason im not more mad is cause the immediate surrounding totals are only ~1-3" more, if it was more like 5"+ more i'd actually be seeking a literal cliff

Kinda weird the NAM looks so bad and the SREFs are so aggressive. Usually the NAM is very similar.

Unless it doesn’t snow the rest of the way Does take it out of ratter territory but we were trending that way regardless.

Like I said, I'd be happy with 2. Or just 1. I just like watching it fall. The cold temps keeping it around for a few days is a bonus.

I’m really happy with winter so far, just bummed to miss this. Would have been heading to epicosity levels.

Forecasted low down here in fort myers for Sunday is 34. Its been 25 years since they've gotten as low as 30. My 95 year grandpa who's lived down here all life has never seen flurries this far south. 1989 there were some reported though.

There’s no “easy” way, but having a gulf that’s available for overrunning is the “best” way.