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^Winter NAO prediction based on May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTAs will probably come in weakly positive. Add to it that we are in the period of 0 to +4 years after a Solar Max, which has a +0.2 Winter NAO correlation, or 55% of the time. Then the NAO has run positive 6 straight months, and the AO has run positive 5 straight months.. that rolls forward to a +0.2 Winter +NAO correlation. All-in-all, that gives us about a +0.3-4 correlation right now for +NAO Winter (DJFM), or 57.5-60% chance of happening, based on those 3 indicators. Because of the decadal cycle, and 83% of Winter months have been +NAO since 11-12, I would say the current odds are more like 65% chance it is a +NAO Winter.

Hit 71 earlier today. Went out to walk the doggo 15 minutes ago and was like WTF? 58???

The summer JJA UHI effect in the Arizona South Central climate division is really pronounced for low temperatures at the Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. But the high temperatures there are fairly similar to the surrounding stations. The data below tracks the warmest Phoenix summers during the 1980s, 2000s, and 2020s. Unfortunately, several stations have left the network and new ones have joined. So several outlying stations don’t have a continuous record since 1981. This makes it difficult for a precise measurement of the UHI change since 1981. The one common denominator has been a steady rise in both the low and high temperatures for Arizona stations with a long enough period of record for comparison. AVG Max Temp Data for June 1, 2024 through August 31, 2024 Warmest Summer On Record Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PHOENIX AIRPORT WBAN 110.4 BUCKEYE 5N COOP 110.2 YOUNGTOWN COOP 110.0 GILA BEND 2SE COOP 109.9 ROBSON RANCH COOP 109.8 TEMPE ASU COOP 109.4 EAST MESA COOP 108.9 BARTLETT DAM COOP 108.6 CASA GRANDE COOP 108.3 CASA GRANDE NATL MONUMENT COOP 108.0 APACHE JUNCTION 5 NE COOP 107.6 MORMON FLAT COOP 107.0 MESA FALCON FIELD WBAN 106.8 SCOTTSDALE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 106.8 CASA GRANDE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 106.5 PHOENIX DEER VALLEY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 106.4 STEWART MOUNTAIN DAM COOP 106.1 FOUNTAIN HILLS COOP 106.0 PICACHO 8 SE COOP 105.8 CAREFREE COOP 105.6 BOYCE THOMPSON ARBORETUM COOP 104.0 PINNACLE PEAK COOP 102.0 AVG Min Temp Data for June 1, 2024 through August 31, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PHOENIX AIRPORT WBAN 87.5 MESA FALCON FIELD WBAN 84.3 SCOTTSDALE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 84.1 YOUNGTOWN COOP 83.3 PHOENIX DEER VALLEY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 82.0 MORMON FLAT COOP 81.6 GILA BEND 2SE COOP 81.5 EAST MESA COOP 81.4 BUCKEYE 5N COOP 81.3 FOUNTAIN HILLS COOP 80.2 CASA GRANDE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 79.7 APACHE JUNCTION 5 NE COOP 78.9 PICACHO 8 SE COOP 78.9 CASA GRANDE COOP 78.7 PINNACLE PEAK COOP 78.5 CAREFREE COOP 77.7 TEMPE ASU COOP 77.6 BOYCE THOMPSON ARBORETUM COOP 77.6 CASA GRANDE NATL MONUMENT COOP 76.8 ROBSON RANCH COOP 76.2 AVG Max Temp Data for June 1, 2007 through August 31, 2007 Warmest Summer 2000s Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. GILA BEND 2SE COOP 108.2 LAVEEN 3 SSE COOP 108.1 MARICOPA 4 N COOP 107.5 TONOPAH COOP 107.2 BARTLETT DAM COOP 107.0 PAINTED ROCK DAM COOP 106.7 CASA GRANDE COOP 106.3 PHOENIX AIRPORT WBAN 106.3 EAST MESA COOP 106.0 YOUNGTOWN COOP 105.5 TEMPE ASU COOP 105.2 ARIZONA CITY COOP 105.2 SACATON COOP 104.9 CASA GRANDE NATL MONUMENT COOP 104.7 STEWART MOUNTAIN DAM COOP 104.7 LITCHFIELD PARK COOP 104.4 PICACHO 8 SE COOP 104.1 FLORENCE COOP 104.0 APACHE JUNCTION 5 NE COOP 104.0 MORMON FLAT COOP 103.8 FOUNTAIN HILLS COOP 103.6 PHOENIX DEER VALLEY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 103.6 SCOTTSDALE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 103.5 CAREFREE COOP 102.9 WICKENBURG COOP 102.6 AGUILA COOP 102.3 WITTMANN 1SE COOP 102.0 AVG Min Temp Data for June 1, 2007 through August 31, 2007 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PHOENIX AIRPORT WBAN 83.6 SCOTTSDALE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 81.0 MORMON FLAT COOP 80.5 PHOENIX DEER VALLEY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 80.0 YOUNGTOWN COOP 79.5 LITCHFIELD PARK COOP 79.3 GILA BEND 2SE COOP 78.7 PAINTED ROCK DAM COOP 77.9 FOUNTAIN HILLS COOP 77.8 EAST MESA COOP 77.0 PICACHO 8 SE COOP 76.7 PINNACLE PEAK COOP 76.4 MARICOPA 4 N COOP 76.0 CAREFREE COOP 76.0 FLORENCE COOP 75.9 TONOPAH COOP 75.6 STEWART MOUNTAIN DAM COOP 75.5 APACHE JUNCTION 5 NE COOP 75.1 TEMPE ASU COOP 75.1 CASA GRANDE NATL MONUMENT COOP 75.0 CASA GRANDE COOP 74.9 WITTMANN 1SE COOP 74.9 ARIZONA CITY COOP 74.3 SACATON COOP 74.2 BARTLETT DAM COOP 74.2 HORSE CAMP CANYON ARIZONA RAWS 71.1 WICKENBURG COOP 70.7 AVG Max Temp Data for June 1, 1981 through August 31, 1981 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. GILA BEND 2SE COOP 110.3 BUCKEYE COOP 109.9 LITCHFIELD PARK COOP 108.6 CASA GRANDE COOP 108.0 CASA GRANDE NATL MONUMENT COOP 107.9 SACATON COOP 107.6 TONOPAH COOP 107.2 PHOENIX CITY WBAN 106.9 MARICOPA 4 N COOP 106.9 FOUNTAIN HILLS COOP 106.8 YOUNGTOWN COOP 106.7 FLORENCE COOP 106.5 PHOENIX AIRPORT WBAN 106.1 MESA COOP 105.8 TEMPE COOP 105.7 CHANDLER HEIGHTS COOP 105.3 SCOTTSDALE COOP 105.1 BARTLETT DAM COOP 104.7 DEER VALLEY COOP 104.5 STEWART MOUNTAIN DAM COOP 103.8 ELOY 4 NE COOP 103.8 LAVEEN 3 SSE COOP 103.7 MORMON FLAT COOP 103.3 WICKENBURG COOP 103.2 SOUTH PHOENIX COOP 102.4 AGUILA COOP 101.6 AVG Min Temp Data for June 1, 1981 through August 31, 1981 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PHOENIX AIRPORT WBAN 83.4 PHOENIX CITY WBAN 81.9 GILA BEND 2SE COOP 78.9 PHOENIX SOUTH MOUNTAIN COOP 78.9 LAVEEN 3 SSE COOP 78.1 FOUNTAIN HILLS COOP 77.5 YOUNGTOWN COOP 77.5 TONOPAH COOP 77.2 DEER VALLEY COOP 77.1 LITCHFIELD PARK COOP 76.9 MORMON FLAT COOP 76.6 STEWART MOUNTAIN DAM COOP 76.2 BARTLETT DAM COOP 75.8 MESA COOP 75.5 SUPERIOR COOP 75.1 MARICOPA 4 N COOP 75.0 BUCKEYE COOP 74.8 FLORENCE COOP 74.7 CHANDLER HEIGHTS COOP 74.6 TEMPE COOP 74.5 CASA GRANDE NATL MONUMENT COOP 74.3 ELOY 4 NE COOP 74.2 CASA GRANDE COOP 73.2 SOUTH PHOENIX COOP 73.1 AGUILA COOP 71.1 SCOTTSDALE COOP 70.3

59 this morning, 68 for the high. 0.11" of all day mist.

.35” so far here in the 395 corridor, much needed. Hoping for at least .75”

What model do we think Surfline uses for its wave height forecasts? It has maintained a peak of 30-35 ft waves at the beach---starting 3am tomorrow---in Frisco, NC, between Hatteras Village and Buxton.

Just got a pretty heavy shower here…starting to wind down a bit.

Congrats lakes

Heavy showers here, topped out at 66F today.

70 / 68 some mist occasionally / drizzle

Thank you for this well thought out response. Makes sense to me. Appreciate it. Micro-meteorological is a good term for a city landscape.

nice downpour here

Really looking forward to the beautiful airmass the middle of next week. Will probably make it up to upper 70s for highs, but it will be just about the lowest humidity of the summer and that will lead to very cool nights.

I'm now under coastal flood warning. Well this storm has escalated lol

0.25, 1.05” for the month. It’s been dry

Up to 0.31" today with some more showers moving in. Temp only made it 72.1F. Currently 71.8.

Erin is sending us her first feeder band in to our area,that's how big she is.

We laugh at those winds

See I am naked and free when it’s like that.

Been pouring here in Jamaica for a bit now.

meh I'm talking 90s and humid are done.. you know the kind of weather that makes you want to hibernate inside

80s this weekend and then again towards Labor Day. Even low 80s next week. Plenty of summer.