Jump to content

All Activity

This stream auto-updates

  1. Past hour
  2. vortex95
    I find this a bit misleading in the larger pix. Of course a newer model is going to be pushed and pointed out more often -- b/c it is new! Makes for better news stories. Also, beware of cherry-picking. For any given fcst, you often can find a model (AI or otherwise) that did much better than the others. Par for the course. Just is it pointed out a lot in the MSM or not? It's like the ECMWF praise that was big after Sandy. Sure, it nailed far out a mega event, but the ECMWF overall skill perception was somewhat tainted by this very fact. It did not mean that the ECMWF was the GOAT and panacea for all out fcst woes going forward! I recall ppl using the ECMWF blindly for fcst solutions b/c it was the ECMWF! That's not good fcst science. One needs to see stats for all fcsts for the model, not just one that happens to get a lot of attention and had high sensible wx impact! That does not mean GDMI is useless or should not be praised, but let's not get carried away.
  3. vortex95
    That structure is likely an artifact from precip in this case. Other analyses showed Champi had completed an ERC earlier and there was no concentric eyewalls or more than one wind max.
  4. vortex95
    Odds are high that there have been at least 6 other STYs stronger than Tip. This short paper from 2004 notes 2, and there have been several since (Haiyan comes to mind). stronger.pdf
  5. WinterWolf
    And the 2011 Snowpocalypse Kevin, was 4 days from now…which makes a whole hell of a lot of difference with regard to leave drop too. So that statement again, is ridiculous.
  6. WinterWolf
    Yea, maybe you missed it…but I did say I stood corrected. I was assuming that Spokane was the typical Pacific Northwest…which was cool and moist and overcast. But I was wrong I guess. My mistake. And if they get as much snow as most of us…that’s not too shabby. Good for them.
  7. WinterWolf
    Bro…your posts don’t make any fucking sense? I love ya…but you sound like you don’t live in SNE? Or haven’t lived here for any length of time. Foliage Color has been exceptional. Leaves are now falling like snow here. We’ve had at least 5 frosts, and two freezes. I mean, maybe you’re just trying to make conversation….and that’s cool. But if you’re serious, you sound like you’re f’n bombed! But maybe at 1000ft…it’s a whole different world from the rest of us?
  8. mitchnick
    Could be worse, like getting our water supply from Lake Meade.
  9. yotaman
    High of 72 but a stiff ne breeze made it feel much cooler. So dry that the dust is really giving me sinus issues.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    Not sure how applicable this sample is considering it uses 26 different el nino winters. Besides, I'm always skeptical of anything posted to social media which puts the highest above average snowfall along the most populous stretches of the northeast.
  11. pazzo83
    are you crazy dude???
  12. OrdIowPitMsp
    NWS already declaring it Given the current forecast numbers, it appears MSP will finish this month as the 2nd warmest October on record.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not sure it should be drier than 1997-98....stronger El Niño plus CC...I agree December will probably we warmer than 1997, but after that it's pretty iffy.
  14. Keith Central PA
    2001-2 was dry..doubt with all that southern branch moisture it would be a match
  15. Today
  16. mitchnick
  17. MJO812
  18. donsutherland1
    MPO doesn’t keep a snowfall record.
  19. MJO812
  20. LibertyBell
    Why? 2001-02 was warmer than 1997-98. Who pays your heating bill? Most people will be celebrating a winter that warm. No I mean drier than 1997-98 not drier than 2001-02. But warmth on the level of 2001-02 which was a warmer winter than 1997-98.
  21. weathafella
    Oaks seem always to be loaded. I remember at the height of the blizzard of 12/11-12,1960 the oak at the side of our house was loaded with brown dry leaves.
  22. Paleocene
    Was up in central PA this weekend (north of Harrisburg by about 30 miles). Lots of color, still some green, definitely peak foliage there over the next seven days. And totally stellar weather to see it all in.
  23. dendrite
    I had 19” here and the oaks were still loaded post storm with partially green leaves.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't see why it should be drier....
  25. weathafella
    Check your climo. They’re east of the mountains and don’t get much rain or snow but they do get both. About as much snow as Boston but a tad colder.
  26. SnoSki14
    Warmer than +10 to +12 would be the apocalypse.
  27. 40/70 Benchmark
    CC is one factor, but we lack the MC contribution that 2015 had, which accentuated the warmth.
  1. Load more activity
×
×
  • Create New...