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I used December 2000 as an analog for the warming in that it would narrowly miss a reversal, but also mentioned December 1981 as an example if it were to actually reverse. I said that the MJO would staddle the border of MJO phase 8 and perhaps make it into phase 8 at a reduced amplitude, which would allow other factors to potentially modulate the pattern. And I'm not sure how in the hell you are grading the nuances of the 500mb composite for a month that has yet to begin. You are absolutely desperate for snow in Central Park, I get it.

It’s prob gonna be a compromise lime usual. But evena compromise isn’t that great because the trend has been to keep the midlevels kind of open. So it’s gonna be weaker with dynamics and QPF.

I'm interested is seeing whether the Euro's snowy start to the run will continue to the end as it often seems to do.

Still waiting for the snow to start flying here. I’ve lived in my house for almost 6 years now and this is looking to be our 2nd largest storm since I moved in.

Extremely meteorological forecast of where I think the best chance to score 1" of snow from the event could end up. If you are north of the red line, potential. South, probably not. EXTREMELY METEOROLOGICAL

Either it’s the GFS camp, too wound up and warm with a track too close or now the EURO/UKMET slides out southeast and a nuisance. Speaking for SNE of course

Not a fan of 12z. Noticable shift towards the GFS-like emphasis of vorticity near the Great Lakes and less in the South. This leads to quick warming of the boundary layer. This was observed across all guidance except the GFS, which shifted a touch towards the consensus. The duration has also been shortening. This is now looking like a relatively quick hitting 6-8 hours of precipitation. A few days ago is was stretched out across as much as 18-24 hours.

Pivotal Kuchera

Around 1" on the euro but that is the whitest guidance

I stopped reading your response right there. Either you didn't actually read my outlook, or you're illiterate to some extent.

Euro still flat

Would like to see picture of said shoe.

Filet-of-sole...and heel!

Last 5-6 model cycles, the trend has been for a flatter solution. Does not mean that holds or continues. We have seen countless times where we see those last 24-48hrs where things come in more amplified.

A compromise blend of the 12z globals would make most of us happy on Tuesday.

What a disaster this has turned into for most

I read your forecast and I completely disagree .So far you missed the 10mb and 50mb warming .You incorrectly strengthened the PV too quickly. Your 500 where the mean trough sitting through Manitoba will be wrong. The polar vortex placement where you errored will be the reason we snow to the coast in phase 8 which you believe died in phase 7. How am I lost when I have been right about the pattern while you and others were counting on the warmth ? Alot of you were too quick with the warmth. Good luck with your forecast. You do w great job but in this case you will most likely be wrong for December.

Your head should be in good shape then!

Euro continues its trend of 10 miles SE every model run. Maybe by 0z DC gets 2 inches

The euro has caved a bunch the last few years, it's not the old King. Hope it's right though

Will is right, there’s been this weird 72 to 96 hour Period at least over the last year maybe two that models get completely stupid on. It’s weird.

should be a nice hit for DC.

I think the AI has a cold and amped bias based on my limited observations the last two weeks. I don't remember it last winter?!

12z Euro shows a plowable Advisory event type of snow event for the LSV this run for Tuesday.