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I’m about a foot of snow ahead of most of you so feels like I have to just watch this one and hope someone cashes in. Even 4 inches for me would be a steal. I’ll go 3.1 inches final call.

Yeah the main show looks mostly on Tuesday as presently modeled. But this is kind of a delicate look with the timing of the southern energy. We’re gonna want this to hold serve for a couple more days before confidence increases a lot. The good news is even if that threat craps out, it looks good for additional threats behind it. Overnight longer range guidance has become a little more aggressive in retrograding the Scandinavian ridging into northern Greenland which in conjunction with a bit more amped WPO ridge, is producing a colder look into mid-December.

would be nice to get the high ratio duster mid week to trend favorably

I told my wife that we'll never have snow at our new Pit1. It would be funny if she's calling me a liar in the first week of December. Bring that up to Pit2.

6z euro def better than 0z thru 144. So that’s something.

Overnight high of 51, currently 48 degrees. Latest from LWX for snow shower chances through Saturday.

@forkyfork Thoughts on next week’s storm?

Forecast for WXW2 keeps beefing up. Now 5” expected with the Thanksgiving storm. Need that a month from now. We’re doing Thanksgiving in CT and Christmas in SLK.

Seems like it’s moved towards more of Tuesday storm winding down by Wednesday morning now

54.2° here at WXW1. 38.8° at WXW2, warmest morning of the month. We torch before winter sweeps in. Thankfully short lived.

Probably our warmest day of the week today with several spots approaching 60°.

There’s some decent energy rounding the base of the longwave trough after it moves east a bit so we get this brief window for a more coastal system. I think most subsequent threats beyond that are likely to be SWFEs. Previously for 12/2-12/3, the southern stream energy was hanging back in the southwest while northern stream moved over us…then, when the southern stream ejected a day or two later (say getting us by 12/5ish…which is why we were saying post-12/3 looked decent), it would push a SWFE up into the cold that was established ahead of it by the northern stream…but it’s not evolving like that now…instead, they are almost moving together so we get this threat to potentially materialize on 12/2…southern stream still lags a bit which is a good thing because it allows the baroclinic zone to set up offshore. But it’s still close enough that it can produce a coastal on some of these runs.

Hopefully it’s paste and not powder

Lmao…

3.1” at MSP. Still blowing and snowing

That’s not what I posted if you paid attention. I said we would see several snow chances . But the great promised month was slipping away. Selective reading is not good

0.12" for the date, getting me to 1.27" for the month. A warm night, hanging in upper 40's, currently 49.5/48.3 at 7:45 with VERY dense fog.

Heisey! Don't be a stranger and be sure to let us know HM's thoughts as we get closer.

Looks great. Can’t wait for the NNE one.

Yeah, this is the reason that we don’t always get a perfect MJO composite match for the RMM charts. Multiple areas of forcing often lead to blended looks between the composites. Sometimes we get more consolidated forcing and it closely resembles a specific phase composite.

Yea it matches fairly well with 6z gfs. Long way to go, but a nice step. .

Make a list now and have one of the questions be: please explain if a scud cloud can be a tornado

felt so much colder than it is, def a bit of a slap in the face

Actually, I mentioned that last night. No way I'll let a classic weenie stand-by be forgotten. BUT, there some truth to that on occasion.

Maybe we can sublimate it away.