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Actually the MET was 50 at FIT for tomorrow off the 00z output. I'm surprised a MOS product was that high.

I agree and hope people don't take my previous post to mean I'm cancelling winter. But I see how it might have been taken that way. My point was just that in a vacuum a nina fading isn't necessarily a good thing. I tend to think the fact that the results have actually been WORSE in those instances is just a fluke of a small sample size, and while I do think the factors I mentioned above mean the odds don't automatically go up when a nina fades...we can get snowy periods during a cold enso, or even a neutral. Flukes happen. 2000 we had nothing going into late January and then one of our snowiest 10 day periods of the last 30 years. 2005-6 we had some snow in december then nothing until a MECS in mid February. 1999 was awful then we got a snowy period in March. Same with 2018. And these things can happen in an enso neutral following a nina also, it's probably just the small sample size that we haven't run into it yet. All that to say I do think we get snow the rest of the way. I don't know how much. My expectations are starting to lower some, we largely wasted several chances the first 1/3 of winter and that has to be factored in. But I do not think we get shut out the rest of the way. The pattern doesn't look like the examples of dreg shut out type winters at all.

Charlton must get getting whacked right now. tiny snow and sleet grains here

Today’s GEFS and EPS MJO forecasts both have a 2+ amplitude (strong) phase 6/7 starting in week 2: -GEFS has 2+ amp phase 6 for Jan 17-21 with a peak at ~2.6 on 1/21 (often strong GEFS forecasted MJOs verify a bit weaker in this region fwiw) -EPS has ~2+ amp phase 6-7 (mainly 7) for Jan 16-21 with a peak at ~2.2 in phase 7 on 1/19 (sometimes EPS forecasted MJOs verify a bit stronger in this region fwiw) - These tell me that the chance for Jan to end up with 20+ days on or inside circle are decreasing. - The frequency of MJO amps of 2+ in DJF has increased substantially on a multi-decadal basis (climate change suspected): # of days MJO 2+ amplitude per DJF 70s-80s: 11 90s-00s: 17.5 10s-20s: 23 So far, 2025-6 has had 4 days of 2+ amp (Dec 1-4) These Jans had a 2+ amp phase 6 or 7: -2024 -2021-18 -2016-3 -2011-8 -2006 -2004 -2002 -1997 -1993-2 -1990-89 -1986 -1979 -1976 Note how much less common 2+ amp periods were in Jan during 1975-2001 (only 30% of the Jans) vs 2002-2025 (67%)! —————— Here’s another MJO stat. tidbit: # of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase 1: 17 (only 4%) 2: 26 (only 6%) 3: 67 (14%) 4: 51 (11%) 5: 57 (12%) 6: 101 (a whopping 22%) 7: 104 (a whopping 22%) 8: 42 (9%) So, since 2011, each of Jan phase 6 and 7 days has been more than twice as common as phase 8 days and a whopping FIVE times as frequent as Jan phase 1-2 days!

Same. Went out to bring in the trash can, they came super early. Saw it was 53 on my station and was like yeah lets see. Surprised to walk out of the garage into balmy spring like conditions. Even a hint of a bit of moisture sometime over night. Nothing on my station so must have been very light but just enough to make things damp. Kind of making it hard to eat my breakfast of oatmeal with blueberries and bananas.

cut them in Spring. They never seems to pop back

True The other issue is we use 30 year means that are actually lagging in a decreasing trend so the means might be misleading. I am not saying the trend will continue, I have no interest in having this fight again right now, but IF...IF the trend does continue eventually the mean for Baltimore, for example, will be about 13" and then a lot of these winters classified as "below normal" looking back would just be normal or slightly above normal if we applied a 30 year mean centered on that year (using both 15 seasons before and after it).

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I should just make that my winter forecast every year “unfortunately”

Those are good points and certainly need to be kept in mind. I think small sample size is definitely a cautionary point as well. If you look at wind plots, OLR, and SSTs though, you see that guidance would put the most rising motion and convection in a canonically pretty good location for us: east of the maritime continent towards the central pacific. That should provide sub seasonal forcing that is favorable for winter weather. You can also look at atmospheric angular momentum and see that the global atmosphere doesn’t look very Nina-like right now. A lot of above normal AAM in the tropics. So I don’t know which of these factors win out. I don’t at all think we’re done with snow and cold. Will this winter be a memorable one? I also doubt that.

I mean if we are being honest below average is the norm with everything but a Modiki at this point.

I think it's a temperature nerd's first day - call it a "warm up" for the impending MOS bust season. lol

Key word in this write up= Unfortunately

yeah, I'm just referencing the NAM RH levels. Haven't looked at other guidance, but 18z had < 50% over Logan, which is typically sun soaked. It may be cloudier western areas, sooner. Plus, it's the NAM for period 4

There could be some breaks in the afternoon/midday. I wonder if the CON-MHT-ASH-LWM corridor verifies warmer with SW flow off the higher terrain.

CFSv2 forecasting a "blue ocean event" for this summer:

That Alaskan Ridge developing and extending down the west coast will block the Pacific jet and warmer air from flooding the country. It will also direct the very cold air from Northwest Canada southeastward into the eastern half of the country. A possible Gulf up the east coast storm track is favored in these setups.........

That's awesome...I had a feeling. Explains some of the advertisements too. Her ads are great BTW...always enjoy them. She knows how to do it

Cloudy upper 40s

Yes he has been on a couple commercials

Negative WPO was in the cards starting appearing beginning of November as many here pointed out. All signs pointed to colder solutions. After a thaw can we make it a Pete Repete .Tack on the deep negative EPO balls cold. As the STS ramps up too. The elusive East Coast Mauler this year?

Sell

Over to snow now

Unfortunately there is no evidence a nina weakening during the winter period actually helps us at all. I understand where this narrative comes from. Nina is bad...so nina ending must be good right? Problem is there is no actual evidence of this. Now it's an incredibly small sample size so take it for what it is, but the last 2 examples and the only 2 in the last 30 years where a nina faded during the winter were two of our worst least snowy winters ever, 2016-17 and 2022-23. Going back 50 years there have been 5 examples and not a single one turned snowy because of the nina fading. 2 and 5 are small samples so maybe its just a fluke but I tend to think the issue is with 2 other factors not being weighted in the "nina bad so nina ending good" logic. 1) there is a lag to enso impacts on the pattern 2) enso neutral isn't necessarily any better anymore. This doesn't get talked about much but the most significant cause of our snowfall degradation is what has happened to enso neutral winters. From 1900 to 1995 enso neutral winters were significantly snowier than cold enso winters, and the odds of an above normal snowfall season in enso neutral was significantly higher, and almost as high as Nino winters. However in the last 30 years 6 of the 7 enso neutral winters were below average snowfall at BWI and the median snowfall for enso neutral is actually no better than nina years during that period. So if you factor in those 2 things...nina fading to neutral during the winter doesn't really do us any good because of the lag and the fact the enso neutral isn't any better anymore.

Problem for Friday is cloud cover and weak mixing.