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The strat split stuff interests me a little bit at this time of year. As Jeff noted, Eurasia is the primary first stop for that cold dump. However, I think maybe it was 14-15 where an early strat split set the stage for a cold second half of winter. We will see. I tend to be in the camp that believes that warm falls tend to flip cold very quickly during the latter half of November. I may have to change my Dec forecast. We will see.

I can see that easily, but from an average standpoint. Ive already noticed a slight reduction in avg snowfall here on the bookends of the season BUT also an increase during the heart of the season. What it means is the avg season snowfall isnt going down and theres more fun in the heart of winter. Despite the reduction in bookends we still see yearly April snow and occasional October & May snow. If Florida and the Gulf Coast can see record snowstorms 2 years in a row, it can snow in NYC in March.

Some growing potential for a strong slp or cut-off just after mid-month. Both the 12z Euro and GFS have it. I doubt it is snow for the lower elevations, but I generally track anything that remotely looks like that. Right now, winter is in the West. Mammoth got 9-14" of snow at the Main Lodge this past weekend. They should meet their normal ski slope opener date (just a few days away). LR ext modeling does hint that winter begins right after Thanksgiving in the East - huge grains of salt(and I mean huge).

I feel like this will be the story of the winter. Even though it's the CFS at hour 480 and even though it's still in November I'm worried we're gonna see a lot of those at D8-10 with a little hope only to get rug pulled at D5-6

Yea, they're gonna get crushed with the juiced stj and pac firehose. What's the verdict on LES during el ninos? I would imagine it would be down without bouts of nw flow?

Guess I really shouldn't be complaining given recent history but I will anyway...it's pretty depressing out there today. Gray and 62F here.

For me to conjure pre winter, I need dark and dank. It’s anything but today!

say it ain't so! I read in another forum that today is the final runs of the NAM.

denier board

Can't win in any state no more. I give up, lol Get the Storms tracks in nino, warm, and this niño is now TOO strong. I mean I would say we need a moderate, but that didn't work either (although...I can't remember getting a noreaster in 23-24. What happened that year with the precip?) Enough cold air in ninas, can't get the storm tracks and watch Jersey north cash in on blizzards. Nina coming next year or year after. This is where we are, smh Hope we luck into one

Unfortunately we are likely to see a LOT of that the next few months... hopefully one or two luck into some cold...that's the plan.

Interesting. I didn’t know about this one.

my son is out there today-they have a day off from school

My thoughts remain the sane Dec: 0 to+ 2 Jan: -1 to +1 Feb: -5 Snow DCA, IAD, BWI 18-30”

I see this place has gone back to its usual cesspool of arguing whether it’ll be warm or cold rather than talking about ENSO and teleconnections. sad.

Should have taken the day off to golf before the leaves all fall and you lose a ball even with a solid hit, 68 here

Traffic jams on the Tobin

Straight on thru to the other side?

Plenty cold. So Don’t even waste your time with these people. If one listens to them, they’ll have you believing it may never snow again. There was another fool who tried to tell us that…his name was Al Gore.

what a day, 70 and sunny here

What an incredible stretch of weather we've had. CLE finished October +2.4 -- seemed warmer than that though with all of the sunny days. Leaves are 90%+ down at this point but Fall clean ups have been easy with the dry weather.

That looks like the porn I tried to watch growing up during the 80s and early 90s in mom's house....I think I can make out a nipple there, Donnie, you dirty birdie...

It almost looks like the temperature variation between Dec and Jan is in stasis ... like constant straight across while the climate normal dips below.

Up to 30% now: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is likely to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a couple of days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development should end by the weekend when the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. 12Z UKMET now forms it SE of Bermuda followed by ENE movement into the open Atlantic: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.11.2026 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 26.2N 60.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 06.11.2026 96 26.2N 60.7W 1000 34 0000UTC 07.11.2026 108 27.0N 59.4W 1000 32 1200UTC 07.11.2026 120 28.3N 58.7W 1000 31 0000UTC 08.11.2026 132 28.8N 56.3W 1000 33 1200UTC 08.11.2026 144 30.4N 54.0W 996 34 0000UTC 09.11.2026 156 30.1N 49.9W 992 37 1200UTC 09.11.2026 168 29.4N 45.6W 989 40

No, it wasn't about my location. It was about NYC's lack of March snowfall in recent years, and people pushing the idea that this trend is entirely driven by global warming, and therefore a return to more normal March snowfall won't happen. My point was simply that if you look at short term trends, small sample sizes for a specific location, it won't always match what's happening globally with temps.