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Good luck man! Keep posting.

Looks like the 00z ( GFS anyway ... ) gave back the petty shaves it was stealing off this signal over those runs. There's still gonna be risks of MCS decay plumes ... or if any wayward linear noctural anything sliding under PF's nuts. Those are built in risks tho. Can't really forecast those until the evidence is obvious

The wave started near the Arabian Sea and has been slowly moving east into the MC. It has been destructively interfered with by the Nino and is only able to contribute when it reached the MC because the +AAM temporarily relaxed. Would the west pacific waters in 1997, 1982, 1972 have been cool enough at this point in the summer to stop this forcing? I disagree.

Missed the heaviest stuff yesterday but picked up 0.27”

Holy shit

Missed the heaviest stuff yesterday but picked up 0.27”

Pretty much what dendrite said. Also, add in it’s extremely difficult for us to be directly centered under the ridge so more often than not we’re on the periphery so that opens up the door for high cloud/convective debris. Also, it gets difficult to achieve higher end temps when dewpoints start pushing towards and into the 70’s

you're gonna need a bigger Thailand sub-forum

Good morning South Dakota

Walking around the houses under construction this week going to be fun lol

I'm willing to be you got all giddy posting that

DCA: 98, 99, 102, 101 BWI: 99, 100, 101, 100 IAD: 99, 101, 102, 102 SBY: 98, 99, 100, 99 RIC: 98, 100, 102, 101 Total Rain: 0.3

Looks like Back in the 80’s by weeks end with periodic storm chances as ridge breaks down or slides southeast in these parts.

If my guess is correct that changes come fall once the warm pool gets pushed way east (30C isotherm to 120E) from all the big WWBs/westerlies we are continuing to see this summer and the MC convection gets suppressed/subsidence from the +IOD forcing

I just don't want it to be 99/82 in my neighborhood like last June's heat wave. That was ridiculous. It does look like 100+ is a lock in the lowlands. How hot can we get? Stay tuned! I think 102F is in reach for areas just away from the water.

Are we going to collapse the electrical grid?

f- that. it can be hot during the work week, but Friday is a holiday and I'd like to get some yard work done without dying.

So July 1911 is probably the closest that we could get to something like that in this area then? Or August 1975? That 98F max at PVD on April 19, 1976 still baffles me. I wonder how hot it would've been if we had that same setup in July.

Oh F this. How far north do I have to go? Acadia must be nice this time of year….

Look at all of that big Dust Bowl heat they had in the Plains and Midwest…and we weren’t even able to pull a monster heat day with those ridges in the 1930s.

That was an east flow downslope off the Cascades with torched mid levels. Everything lined up for them with that…they’re closer to Tip’s Sonoran heat source region. We’re just way more downstream. Even when they advect in here they’re moderated.

0.62” total

The record heatwave into the 100s to start July in the East is another example of how the seasonal models don’t handle long range Maritime Continent forcing very well especially when it’s out of phase with the ENSO forcing. The long range July forecast was just focused on the developing super El Niño forcing. This has been a common theme as the more recent forecasts show much stronger Maritime Continent forcing than the seasonal long range forecast did. So just looking at the seasonal guidance you wouldn’t get any indication that there would be a 594 DM+ heat dome in the East producing record highs over 100°. So we often get multiple regions of forcing matching the locations of the warmest +30C SSTs. Old July seasonal forecast New July forecast

Any particular reason for this? I would've thought that the westerly flow off the ocean would make it more difficult for Seattle but obviously that wasn't the case in June 2021. But before that event, Boston had a higher record than Seattle.

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