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Totally worth it!

Probably, so I am willing to bet it will stink, aside from maybe one great storm. I don't feel as optimistic after seeing that RONI vs ONI relationship, as I was already leery of that after 2023.. Still plenty of time to and data to consider, though. I do wonder if we see that gap begin to close, though with the changes underway in the Pacific..that maybe what we need.

0.55” here

Enjoy!

Yup. Like the one that got a lump of coal...lol

Yeah, I think it will stay around -0.5c lower for the duration of the event. The big cold season 500mb low has been trending less and less intense in the progression of Strong Nino's for the last 70 years. Will be interesting to see if this one stays weak like 23-24.

You are misunderstanding me....I know what RONI is...it's not the reading itself that I am concerning myself with. It's what it represents....we WANT the El Niño to correlate to the North Pacific pattern, so having the RONI lag the ONI does not mean that it's a "weaker" El Niño...it means that there is another force, likely of cool ENSO ilk, competing with the El Nino, and it's not forcing the north Pac pattern to a degree commensurate with the ONI intensity. If it were simply a weaker El Niño....it's probably more west-based and the Aleutian low is thus further west, which is favorable....but a lower RONI may mimic a west-based in the SST pattern, but actually has so much warmth in the western Pacific as to introduce more MC forcing than is typical in a potent El Niño. We'll see what happens have a lower RONI again in another strong El Niño.

He forgot one… This should mean a better than normal chance of a historic snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic & Northeast next Winter. Maybe a mostly one & done type of Winter, like 1983 or 2016, but if it is a 2 to 3 feet snowstorm, it might be worth it.

I expect the O’s will have a terrific summer. And watching the Caps tonight, they seem ready for the golf course too. Horrendous effort this evening.

Central Park, JFK Airport, and LaGuardia Airport had identical low and high temperatures (57°-42°) today. The last time that happened was August 29, 2025 when all three stations had a 78°-65° daily temperature range. That was the only such occurrence last year. The record is 4 occurrences. That record was set in 1959 and tied in 1968 and 1976.

It’s a nasty gusty sheet drizzle right now. 41°

The RONI isn't an index like the NAO or Solar cycle. It's relative ENSO index, to account for global warming. To compare differences in pattern in RONI vs ONI is just to talk about global warming trend of late. There's not a magical formula in RONI that makes it stronger than ONI a good pattern. You are basically just saying before 2010 was easier to get a cooler 500mb pattern. I'm pointing out that the area where ENSO has most impact - the N. Pacific - has correlated better to the RONI than ONI as of late, making RONI a better gauge to ENSO's impact.

.37 total here.

It got up to 71 just before 11 am before the front came through and knocked the reps down about 15 degrees. Ended up with 0.38" in the bucket, but that was over a 5 hour period, so no gully washers. It did get pretty humid around the frontal passage though. Currently 52 with dp 44.

@Stormchaserchuck1, I agree that the correlation tools have some utility, but I do think that @bluewave is onto something with the lower RONI being reflective of a negative impact for eastern winter enthusiasts....ie cool ENSO residue. Consider several moderate to strong El Nino events that were "good".....ie 1957, 1965, 1986, 2002, and 2009...EVERY ONE OF THEM had a RONI was at least equal to, or GREATER than the ONI.

0.18".

After a break in action, we now have Easter snow at WXW2. Can we snow Memorial Day too?

maybe snow covered Tuesday

Loves chilly at night this week, gonna be dormant for quite awhile longer now

I'll have to check my bleeding hearts. I didn't know they started this early. Magnolia tree next door is ready to pop.

It’s a gamble. If this el nino turns out as strong as current forecasta (I think not), then we probably torch. Snowfall? Either a ratter or a one-and-done that drops 20” or more.

Awesome!

With no rain. Fun times

Yeah im not sure but we've seen a lot of local mets go from here to Atlanta. I'm sure the money is great.

0.26” but the yard is soggy