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The GFS is running. Hopefully Randy didn't forget about it and can stop by for PBP, but if not, TSSN's PBP was great last time 'round so I vote him if Randy is absent.

You would think the surface would respond to those mid level changes but it’s not

We are in a lull but snow will happen again. This is New England it snows here. And yes the 2010’s will eventually walk through the door. Larry bird might not walk through the door but Tatum might!!

I guess its over You dont have to look anymore

Then it sends a clipper through at the end of the run and ends up here.

IYKYK

We should move to AK. 4-8 with lollies to 12 doesn’t warrant anything higher than advisory WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 4 to 8 inches with localized amounts up to 12 inches possible.* WHERE...Anchorage and Lower Matanuska Valley.* WHEN...Until 9 AM AKST Sunday.* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...As of early this afternoon, a band of heavier snowfall is just west of Anchorage and is expected to drift eastward this afternoon across Anchorage and Eagle River. It will then spread northeast into the Matanuska Valley through this evening. The heaviest snow will likely be this evening through the overnight hours. Snow will then gradually end through Sunday morning.

Yes. Although not even sure that is a thing anymore. For me it is the fact that the other models are coming around to it's solution from 24 hours ago.

what a shitty model

2026 season will be rockin'

That’s a great setup. Can’t go wrong with Atomic. Quality built and they ski really well. Enjoy! .

Icon looked great at 500, and the ridge was in perfect position with a closed off negatively tiled trough in Tennessee. But surface depiction just slides it right out to sea. Probably the Tpv lobe just dragging everything too far east

ICON lost the second wave, like the Euro.

Wasn't there a time when the GFS handled northern stream better?

18z GFS vs 0z ICON, and to me the ICON looks better at h5. if the GFS can spit out 6-12" with that look then it would definitely spit out at least that with the ICON look

Fireworks with GFS, coming soon

Lol. Thats like saying the bears are going to come back and win this game. Not happening. .

ICON hits from Eastern Rim and points east, especially north of 40, on the 15th. Another round headed for Western areas by the 16th or so, with snow breaking out in Arkansas.

last time we had a big storm possibility the GFS scored a coup against all the other models... including the stubborn Euro.

If the gfs or euro showed at 500 what the icon is showing, the sfc would look better guaranteed. @TSSN+ beat me to it

1) People love the dopamine 2) Absolutely nothing comes easy around here. When low probability is the default, your hopes change. The 2010s are not walking through the door.

The 3km NAM looks convective tomorrow afternoon, works in nearly 100j/kg of surface cape and some mixed layer as well, maybe enough for some isolated lightning strikes as the trough axis swings through. Next weekend is certainly interesting. One thing that gives me caution is the GFS verification scores have not been great lately. That said I'll be down in Georgia next weekend so you can pretty much take a snowstorm to the bank- I missed the November one down there too.

GFS is going to end up winning this one. Rare that it happens. But it is going to this time.

WB 0Z Icon misses....but nice move SW with the upper low compared to 18Z.

Ya let’s get euro to show that h5 and we good. Icon is just the icon