All Activity

This needs to shift west about 20 miles.

I meant the outcome. It's getting really close to the event to hope for additional noteworthy shifts, but I guess anything is possible.

except the tragedy of Zippo white

Nammy bumping up in places, esp 3km

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray

Lol I know right

Oh boy...models might be coughing up a furball on this one, lol

I meant the GFS & ECMWF vs. the AI models. Considering the size of the model domain, the camps aren't that far apart. The difference just feels really big considering the local sensible weather outcome. I feel like there have been many 75 mile shifts in precip. shields over the past 20 years with coastal storms within 48 hours.

It's well west. Its correcting .

No they really aren't. I mean when dealing with phasing and relying solely on phasing, minuscule changes with how the energies evolve and interact can have significant differences on surface evolution. Traditional guidance is still struggling to get a good handle on the northern energy and even with how the southern energy evolves. It wouldn't take much but I presume we really need to start seeing a consensus towards positive ASAP

I appreciate so many people here. Our tireless mods. Randy, who was simply..born to lead us maniacs and this place. Like everyone, I appreciate the mets and other experts. I was in awe when I found Eastern and realized I could just...read and talk to actual mets?! In real time?! It's sometimes said oh, we've driven so many great posters away with our awfulness...lol...and maybe we have, and maybe some ppl moved and started families etc..anyway I always feel a twinge for the great posters we HAVE when I hear that. We still have a lot. I appreciate the young posters! New blood is good. I remember Snowen's emergence and like him so much, good thread. I appreciate my weather sisters, the other few women on here, too! I appreciate the FUNNY people, who are not always who you expect. Our sub is full of humor and tbh I wouldn't visit without it (in the appropriate thread ofc). Last but not least, I appreciate kindness wherever I see it, even in this tough crew with all the trolling haha, there is .

The NAM is pretty garbage but again not really a model to use for when dealing with phasing so all we can hope for is the GFS how some improvements

Jumpin’ January

Brine going down in Cary. Even without the precip much of it will be worn away with today’s rush hour not started yet and then all day tomorrow with everyone getting their MB&TP.

It actually seems to invert as qpf spreads throughout 75% of sne.

They (GFS/ECMWF) aren't that far apart at this point, are they? What, maybe 50-75 miles with the heavy stuff offshore? The ECMWF OP in particular has shifted NW with the heavier stuff. As many people have mentioned, these are the kinds of setups that can and sometimes do shift NW in the last 48 hours. The outcome is extremely sensitive to minor changes in the shortwaves near the Gulf and also the Lakes. Presumably the AI models are correcting for those cases somehow. But that sensitivity is a double edged sword. I can also see how the AI models might overcorrect if their training datasets aren't perfectly representative or well matched to the current setup.

I mean...they could extend that purple line southwest by 50 miles. Wouldn't hurt at this range. Smh. Also, fun/random fact: Ferris Bueller's best friend...his name is Cameron Frye (played by Alan Ruck), which so happens to be my name, just without the 'e' on the end. While I was born the same year the movie came out, contrary to local conspiracies, I wasn't named after the character. 0:34 in the clip below gets me every time... https://youtu.be/LOMO_eSGcU4?si=38NB8nmLgHGa8XN6

NAM is well west of 12z which was pushing the low to Iceland.

3k NAM with a lil somethin somethin.

I wouldn't say terrible. It made a pretty good jump nw

Not dead yet!

Nam gets some light rain and snow into SE areas

a closer version of ass. getting the ready for the 18z AI vs OP battle

Looks like its still chasing convection