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Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (1981) NYC: 96 (1994) LGA: 96 (1991) JFK: 92 (1962) Lows: EWR: 52 (1946) NYC: 52 (1927) LGA: 55 (1961) JFK: 52 (1965) Historical: 1794: A frost was reported at Mansfield, MA, repeating a previous occurrence made on May 17th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1806 - A total eclipse of the sun was viewed from southern California to Massachusetts. (David Ludlum) 1895: Heavy rain fell in portions of central Arkansas, damaging several roads and bridges. At Madding, east of Pine Bluff, 6.12 inches of rain fell in six hours. 1906: On this date through the 17th, a tropical storm moved north out of the Caribbean, through the middle Florida Keys and exited into the Atlantic near West Palm Beach, gaining hurricane strength over the Atlantic. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1917 - The temperature soared to 124 degrees at Mecca climaxing the most destructive heat wave of record in California history. (David Ludlum) 1921: Yosemite Valley, CA received a trace of snow, their latest on record for this late in the season. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1924: A short, but intense heat wave in Wichita Falls, TX reached its peak on this date. The maximum temperature was 111°. This followed a high of 110° on the previous day, and was followed by 108° the next two days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1944 - A tornado in Sioux City, IA, traveled an odd course. It spun in one place for about twenty minutes, made a U-turn, traveled southeast for about three miles, then traveled south, east, north, and finally east again. (The Weather Channel) 1964: A late season snowfall left a trace of snow over all of northern Maine. Guttenberg, IA set a record low for June with 40°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1965: On the 16th and 17th -Severe floods occurred in Colorado as 12 to 14 inches of rain fell on portions of the east slopes of the Rockies and the plains east of Denver. 14 inches fell in just three hours at Palmer Lake and Larkspur, CO with 12 inches at Castle Rock. A wall of water as high as 20 feet roared down both branches of Plum Creek into the South Platte River near Littleton and through Metro Denver. Flood waters spread to a width of a half mile in Denver. The citizens of Denver received reports of the flooding to the south and had a few hours to initiate evacuation procedures along the South Platte River greatly limiting the loss of life. Around midnight, the torrent crested at 25 feet above normal with the flow exceeding 40 times normal. This is the record flood on the South Platte and many of its tributaries. Many homes and businesses were destroyed. Damage totaled $230 million dollars. 8 people were killed. (Ref. Denver, CO Weather History) 1972: Agnes was first named by the National Hurricane Center on June 16, 1972: It would go on to make landfall between Panama City and Apalachicola, Florida, on the afternoon of June 19. Hurricane Agnes would later cause catastrophic flooding in the mid-Atlantic states, especially Pennsylvania. Agnes caused over 100 fatalities. 1975: New York City--Two children were killed and seven injured by a single bolt of lightning when they took refuge from rain under a tree in Central Park. 1987 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the Upper Midwest, reaching 104 degrees at Lincoln, NE. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 96 mph at Valley City, ND, and baseball size hail near Red Oak, IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - After a brief respite, hot weather returned to the Northern High Plains Region. Late night thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Polson and north of Lake Seeley. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Daytime thunderstorms produced severe weather from northern Florida to the Middle Atlantic Coast. The thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes, and there were 138 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 87 mph caused twenty million dollars damage at Columbia SC. Strong thunderstorm winds killed one person at McLeansville NC. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1992: A devastating tornado ravaged portions of southwest Minnesota. Commonly referred to as the Chandler-Lake Wilson tornado, this tornado destroyed more than 75 homes, with another 90 houses, 10 businesses, a church, and a school damaged. In addition, the tornado caused over $50 million in property damage, resulting in more than 40 injuries and one fatality. Based on a detailed damage assessment by the National Weather Service, it is estimated this F5 tornado packed winds over 260 mph as it tore through the residential area of Chandler, Minnesota. This was the only F5 tornado to occur in the United States in 1992. 2001: Lightning struck after rain had ended and the sun was shining killing a teenage girl south of Wakefield, Quebec Canada; just outside of Montreal. The same thunderstorm shocked 11 soccer players and spectators in a Montreal park. Though some were burned, none were seriously injured. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2008: Western and central New Yorkers experienced a rare widespread large and damaging hail event. For two hours, cell after cell rolled along a similar path across southern Niagara, southern Orleans, Monroe, Wayne and northern Cayuga counties many of which had hail of up to an inch-an-a-half diameter. Then more thunderstorms that formed later produced hail up to two inches in diameter, a rare event for western New York. One thunderstorm formed over Grand Island intensified as it moved southeast across the densely-populated northern and eastern suburbs of Buffalo. The golf-ball sized hail damaged thousands of automobiles as well as windows, roofs and awnings on homes. At the Amherst Middle School, the hail pierced 1200 to 1500 holes in the skylight roof. While property damage was significant, the damage to area crops was devastating. The hailstones pummeled fruits leaving divots and cracks. Vegetable plants were stripped of their leaves. Apples, peaches and pears that were not stripped from the tress and could have been sold for eating fresh will have to be sold for processing at a substantially lower cost because of being misshapen and bruised. The U.S. Department of Agriculture issued a Disaster Declaration for Erie, Genesee, Monroe, Ontario, Orleans and Wayne counties. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2014: The Pilger tornado was the most intense of the family of tornadoes produced by the supercell. This tornado developed about 6 miles southwest of the town of Pilger and moved northeast, directly striking the city. Initially narrow and relatively weak, the tornado significantly intensified as it neared the Elkhorn River and moved into town. The tornado cut a path through town, destroying numerous homes and businesses. The tornado was responsible for 1 fatality in the town of Pilger and several injuries before moving northeast and weakening. During a weakening period, the tornado again intensified, producing additional violent damage 4 miles northeast of Pilger. Finally, the tornado narrowed, weakened, and turned east, wrapping around the developing Wakefield tornado before dissipating.

Eh, this is a slight risk day. It's not like we were staring down a D3 MOD risk with a CIG2 hatch 60% or something that fizzled.

I've been in a few NOAA/NHC/FEMA webinars recently where the speakers have made observations where the AI guidance appears to not overhype, but rather really juice up convection in the warm sector. It's entirely possible these AI models need more events in their knowledge base before they can beat the traditional NWP. Just my observation. Others are welcome to chime in.

74 / 44 and very nice out. Hovering near normal overall the next 10 days with thursday surge of heat ahead of the trailing front. Moderation warmer once to 6/24 and the close / open of next month where more heat pushes expanding east.

Went on a morning hike of Harper’s Ferry MD side. Beautiful, got there at 6:30am and avoided the crowds.

IMO, this one is headed for the history books. I think it ends up as the strongest El Nino event on record

I think it’s just “common” knowledge to those of us in N IL. Although if there is a setup that could slam that WF north, it’d be this one.

Little known?

Reminds me of Dec 00. Blech lol.

Note: They also reported a third yesterday, so that's up to at least 5 from this system. Coupled with the 6 earlier in the month, that's a pretty hefty number. Fortunately, nothing too strong.

No real heat for at least a week... a bit AN but no torch

Yeah summer over UFN.

We are going to need a new classification system for this one. Maybe something like a super east to west basin event to reflect how spread out the record warmth is. Currently getting near to record breaking SSTs for the week of June 10th for developing El Niños using the traditional ONI from 1+2 all the way over to Nino 4. 1997-1998 was the previous record holder for east based events. 2015-2016 was the leader for Nino 3.4 and 4. 2023-2024 tied 2015-2016 in Nino 4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ June 10th 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 07JUN2023 26.1 2.6 28.0 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.5 0.7 10JUN2015 25.5 2.0 27.8 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.8 0.9 11JUN1997 26.1 2.8 27.8 1.1 28.4 0.7 28.9 0.1 At peak strength all-time Nino region warmest SSTs bolded with ties 29NOV2023 24.2 2.1 27.2 2.0 28.7 2.0 30.3 1.7 18NOV2015 23.8 2.0 28.0 2.9 29.8 3.0 30.3 1.7 26NOV1997 25.8 3.7 28.4 3.3 28.9 2.2 29.3 0.7 03DEC1997 26.2 3.9 28.2 3.1 28.8 2.1 29.2 0.6

Yeah, SPC is taking the typical NE approach in stopping short of our lat/lon for slight and period 5s. But I can imagine that will need to be extended NE.

My guess was 24" at our NNJ home, but only a guess due to the wind. Coming 15 cold days after the "JFK inaugural" storm, Feb 3-4 brought the deepest pack in NJ records, reaching 50"+ at 2 locations. The storm arrived on Friday evening and even with the weekend we had no school that Monday. NYC schools were closed the entire week. Closures that winter meant extended days in hot no-AC June.

ahh it hasn't felt that warm. It's been normal warm in my opinion

You're correct in that thinking and I am idealizing it that way. Adding perspective to this thinking though, the reason why I am idealizing it that way is because it works. But you're 100% correct, we don't do that around here, or extremely rarely. But it isn't proper or really correct to try and compare our environments or setups to those of the Plains. We all know why the Plains get higher-end/widespread outbreaks - EML. As you know, when it comes to getting severe weather or tornadoes - an EML isn't necessarily important (if you want widespread/high-end severe it is). So, I guess the jest of the series of posts is to try and put out there that in our discussion of this potential, we aren't calling for widespread severe or higher end severe...so if we only get a handful or svr reports or a tornado some aren't screaming "bust"...a handful of svr reports and even a tornado would fit the mold of what the most logical outcome is from this setup. This will be a mesoscale assessment for sure. We get dews 73-75F and bring about some cloud breaks...that would provide enough instability to perhaps fire a few cells and make those cells interesting.

TIL where Kingwood is.

Mm...it sounds sorta like you're idealizing against a Plains profile in the back of your mind. Not trying to tell you what you're thinking- just seems that way... If so, no. We don't do that around here - not very often anyway. EOF 1 and 2 swarms. In 1954, we set up 4,000 foot tall stove pipe finger of god and sent it drillin' for oil down near Worcester... In 2010...sort of hybrid of that in Monson. Otherwise, that's apples to oranges for low LCL events. High shear/helicity profiles spin even meager updraft motion, lower in the troposphere. Which ... not all the models concur on that profile, admittedly - some have the warm front clearing house (NAM). However, I'm also using an a-priori in knowledge/experience. Warm boundaries don't just waltz on thru like the models are doing Thursday morning. So I could be wrong there. If the warm front, incongruent to our climate as it may be, effortlessly and without resistence ... sails on past by 15z, we'll see the blue tinted hill side under blazing sun-wasted torrid miasma of 76F DPs because of weak sauce lapse rates and insufficient triggers. But there is one other option...hm. You know, I'm not sure this is an analog - probably not at discrete analysis... but it does remind me of June 1987 ..I think it was around the 10th or 15th.. A morning warm front with elevated convection that actually became severe ... sending warned cells through midriff ORH county ... It all passed off by noon with abrupt clearing. The warm front cold front wedge was then in place. By 1:30...full sun soared T over TD ... 86/73. An explosion of thunderstorms erupted up the Mohawk Trail W of ALB, and as it came ESE ... it evolved into a small Derecho ( probably would have been a big one if it didn't move out over the ocean later that evening...). It came down Rt2 with routine gusts to 70mph, quarter sized hail, and a lot of power outages during the evening.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The disturbance (AL90) that we have been tracking for several days across the southern Gulf of America into northeastern Mexico has moved into southern Texas. While the system is producing plentiful convection, it still lacks a well-defined center. However, most of the guidance suggest that it will move offshore tonight, and winds will increase to tropical-storm-force on Wednesday. Thus, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on surface and radar data. The system is moving slowly northeastward this morning. We expect the low to continue moving in that general direction with some increase in forward speed due to it encountering faster flow associated with a flat mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. Model guidance hugs the Texas coast but generally keeps it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore late Wednesday or early Thursday. The NHC forecast is between the latest dynamical model consensus and the corrected-model consensus HCCA. The upper-level environment is not particularly conducive for much intensification with a fair bit of shear and close proximity to land. However, there is enough upper-level support from a jet to the north to cause large-scale deepening, along with convective support from warm Gulf waters, so some intensification is anticipated through Wednesday. This forecast is similar to the model consensus IVCN. It should be noted that this system will likely never have a pure tropical appearance on satellite due to the upper trough and shear, with a highly asymmetric appearance with the rainfall and winds favoring the eastern semicircle. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is possible across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is expected along the Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, with isolated areas of significant river flooding possible across the Texas Coast and Louisiana. 2. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 27.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0000Z 27.4N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 17/1200Z 28.2N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 18/0000Z 29.6N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 31.6N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Ehhh - with severe I'll keep watching until morning of. Always surprises since storms are smaller scale than snowstorms generally.

BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE.... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 98.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sargent to Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 98.0 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning early Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Nice weather! Not much more you could want in mid June. Enjoy! A sampling of the coolest NJ mins from this morning.

If this were winter Thursday would be getting a “time of death” post right about now.