All Activity
- Past hour
-
What does your modeling method show for December?
-
-
We may keep this stretch of weather well into the second half of the month...obviously with some "cooler" periods with any weak fronts. But its pretty crazy being in November and a cold FROPA still results in temperatures above climo
-
At least it's a good zzzz
-
This weather has been too good for too long. I'm afraid of what might happen when the rubber band snaps. That said, damn it's nice out
-
0.01% chance...
-
High of 79, AC is on again.
-
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
Typhoon Tip replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
heh, it'd be nothing shy of marvelous if in the face of all ... nothing exceptional worth turd of mention actually happened through April. that would be sooo awesome -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
Typhoon Tip replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
heh ... ever get the sense we'll be in here 71 days from now still assessing all these ways to get a winter outside the windows while we're rolling up seasonally blunted heat wave after heat wave... -
I saw mine doing that the other day. We have had 3 freezes here, but maybe they had seeded
-
We could definitely tap a small piece of the residual tropical moisture plume feeding north along the stalled front on Friday which lead to the historic Florida rainfall and flooding.
-
This is almost like a summer heat wave .. only shave 20 to 25 off the maxes. It's like 94/100/100/92 then a front, only 74/80/80/72
-
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I'm not gonna lie, I don't mind the warmth right now given that I have to pay for oil. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Need to see it sustained...it keeps trying to do normalize, then reverts back... -
hmm... We made 74 for a high T today, with considerable cloud contamination. Just looking at the sounding for tomorrow. With less critical ceiling level RH ( meaning more sun), a warmer starting T/launch, and an even warmer mixing column ... yeeeeah, 80 is possible.
-
-
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The new Euro Weeklies remain mild and even are very slightly warmer than yesterday for weeks 2-3. Regarding the cooler weeks 4-6 vs earlier weeks that we were just discussing, they’re still significantly cooler than weeks 2-3 but came in a little milder overall vs yesterday’s run, especially weeks 4-5. Week 6 is similar to yesterday (only very slightly milder). -
WB latest weeklies indicate that the last week of November will be wet. If the pattern is still bone dry at the end of the month, or there is still no rain in sight by then, I will start to get nervous about the active southern jet forecast for winter.
-
I have had two and 13 nights in the 30s but I’m way up in western Avery county. .
-
chris21 started following 2026 Foothills thread
-
don’t interact with the guy. I’m pretty sure he just likes to bait for engagement
- Today
-
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The GEFS PNA prog for the 1st 1/2 of Nov once again looks impressively positive for the 8th day in a row: Looking at only Ninos of +1.4+ (per RONI), there have been 10 others since 1950 but only one (1997) had a +PNA dominant first half of Nov like GEFS says 2026 is going to have. GEFS is suggesting ~+1.1 (after adjusting a little downward for bias) for 11/1-15/2026. How does this compare to the other 10 actual 11/1-15? Only 1997 was the least bit similar: 2023: -0.1 2015: -0.2 2009: -0.3 1997: +1.2 1991: +0.1 1986: -0.9 1982: -0.3 1972: +0.1 1965: -0.5 1957: 0.0 I wonder if this strong early Nov +PNA in 2026 is largely due to how E based it is being that 1997 was so E based early. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii -
Just looking through Nov with my modelling method. Obviously mild wet conditions during this 1st week, but drying out the 2nd week with temps generally nearer avg. 3rd week looks similar to the 1st. And as we end the month, that looks more seasonable to cooler with our first real taste of winter wx.
-
Torch Tiger changed their profile photo
-
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You definitely live in a really beautiful microclimate which many people never get to experience outside vacations. Any tools that aid in long range forecasting are a positive in my book. Reactions to specific weather outcomes are a very subjective experience. While many people on this forum like cold winters, most of the population enjoy low heating bills and milder temperatures. -
Check the temp in boston for 12/24/2014......tell me if it was close to 73/74...
-
The meltdowns are going to be epic. ...
