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15 degrees this morning. Still feels bitter out. Have a good trip Nut!

Mid week really ramping up

Another tblizz mehracle ?

Beefy

It's been an absolutely amazing winter if so. Snow in December. A super memorable snow/ice storm in January, ice skating on the bay and extended cold. If we get anything else it's a bonus imo. People need to remember where they live and appreciate what they have. If you want more the Tug is very affordable. I do agree. Winter is probably mostly over.

Both global bone dry zzzzzzs

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 219 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-504-VAZ053-054-501-505-506-526-527-061530- /O.CON.KLWX.HW.W.0001.260207T0900Z-260208T0000Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.CW.Y.0011.260207T0900Z-260208T1500Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 219 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. For the Cold Weather Advisory, very cold wind chills as low as 13 below expected. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central and southern Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. For the Cold Weather Advisory, from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will remain at or below zero during the day on Saturday due to windy conditions and cold temperatures. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution if you must drive. Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Keep pets indoors as much as possible. Make sure outdoor animals have a warm, dry shelter, food, and unfrozen water. && $$

So does the 6z GFS now apparently. Smaller, quick hitter

AI models really like wednesday

Wunderground for here keeps increasing. Now 5-8, but nws is 1-3. What models is Wunderground using? I expect nws to win that battle but clearly some uncertainties and wildcards abound

I may be off but historically when winter ends around here it's rather abrupt and we sit around waiting for something to magically pop up on models...I usually know it's that time when I wake up and there aren't many new pages in this thread and most of the posts are by chuck

My 2 cent opinion is that this Nina's last gasp of strong trades (blue on this map for those unfamiliar) is occurring and will remain until the end of February. That will make it difficult, if not unlikely, to squeeze in anything greater than a 2-4" event (if anything) imho. Come March, Niño conditions will finally overpower the Niña. Whether we can get everything to align (cold and qpf) is too early to say.

Delmarva 134 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY... ...EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. For the Extreme Cold Warning, dangerously cold wind chills as low as 14 below expected. * WHERE...Portions of Delaware, northeast Maryland, and southern New Jersey. * WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 8 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday. For the Extreme Cold Warning, from 3 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday.

24 here

I was saying before that we maybe were moving toward something workable around Feb 20.. but tonight's runs don't look like that. If there is a pattern change back to cold, it's probably going to occur in the last few days of Feb, unless models are just way wrong about the Aleutian ridge. I think the MJO is moving into supported phases for the pattern.

Rather dynamic pattern for Fri night into Sat as deep mid level trough amplifies across New Eng and eventually takes on negative tilt, with 700 mb low eventually developing south of New Eng Sat afternoon. Strong height falls developing off the coast will lead to cyclogenesis well offshore on Saturday, but given the strong upstream trough there will be an inverted trough that develops and extends across New Eng. Increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the trough and low level convergence with the inverted trough combined with deepening moisture plume with near saturation through the mid levels will result in widespread snow developing from late evening through Saturday. The snow should taper off in the afternoon in western New Eng behind the arctic front, while becoming more focused in eastern MA. Interesting set up as snow will be moving in from the west ahead of the trough, but hi-res guidance shows also bands of snow moving into eastern MA from the ocean later tonight through Sat from convergent NE flow ahead of the arctic front. The bands moving in from the ocean and the inverted trough are wildcards to the snow forecast. These inverted troughs are often associated with narrow mesoscale bands of enhanced snowfall where the low level convergence sets up. We also have potential for localized snow squalls along the arctic front. There are decent model signals given strong low level frontogenesis, relatively steep 0-3km lapse rates and some low level CAPE. Snow squall parameter is highlighted across eastern New Eng Sat afternoon. In addition, model soundings show very favorable snow growth for a few hours in eastern New Eng with 20-30 units of omega in the DGZ suggesting locally brief heavy snowfall rates of 1"+/hr within any enhanced snow bands. However, forecasting the exact location and axis of where these heavier snow bands is very challenging often leading to low confidence forecasts in location of potentially higher impact snowfall. This is a situation where snowfall amounts can vary greatly over short distances.

Some of the current angst/irritation over the models can be explained by one consistent fact that since the snow/sleet bomb - we’ve gone back to very little (no) precip. It was indeed a weak ass frontal passage for instance. We are currently frustrated over chasing ghosts because the various physics and ai overlord efforts to model chaos can’t agree on our next good window for areawide precip - much less if it will be snow or rain. whatever pattern reshuffle is underway , I hope it brings more moisture chances with it

Back down to 10…

overnight runs...yikes.

This last cold pattern was impressive though? There is a middle ground in there.. we are just changing states in the Pacific pretty extremely, from what I see on models today and the last few days. +400dm Aleutian ridge with sub-5000dm heights in Alaska is one extreme. It's not like we are borderline favorable and it's always going warm.. we are just in pattern flux for the last several years. That +100dm anomaly in the map I posted above for a 2-month timeframe over 8 consecutive years is a ridiculous anomaly! I get that the SE ridge ridge didn't used to always be impenetrable in -PNA in the 60s. I think one difference is the WPO has been positive every Winter except 21-22 and this Winter since 2016-17.

Which is my point. It used to be cold enough to overcome imperfections in patterns. I’ll give you an example. When I looked at every 5”+ snow at Baltimore from 1948 on there was a subset of storms in fall Hudson Bay high storms. Because the whole pattern was utter dog shit except for that one feature. Because a high there tended to force a favorable storm track and almost all these storms were warm and barely cold enough to snow. The most recent example was 1997. A horrible pattern. -pna. But we got an 8” wet snow storm when it was like 45-50 the day before and after the storm. But those have gone extinct. Now they are just perfect track rainstorms. Lately when the pattern isn’t perfect it’s too warm.

6z HRRR beefing up here!! We take