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Look, I don't care how I look on this weather board. And there are certainly many people who know more than I do and who's brains work much faster than mine. I care about truth, facts, evidence, and the scientific method. These are the things that improved human quality of life tremendously over the past few hundred years. When you know what's true and you understand cause and effect, you can make good decisions that benefit people. The opposite is true when you make decisions based on myth, tradition, dogma, voodoo, or a misunderstanding of what's real and true. That's why I have a problem when people anthropomorphize weather features (surface highs/lows, "kickers") or climate indices, because it misleads people about what's actually happening. I'm sensitive to a distortion of facts and partial truths... especially when they are presented with an heir of expertise. That's why I challenge these things. If Don performed a sensitivity analysis that as a byproduct generated a mean (output) value for monthly temperature, then he should either say that or call it something else, like a probability analysis. Words matter. Perceptions matter. The reality is that, sensitivity analysis or not, we don't have a robust method to estimate local temperature beyond 10 days. The uncertainty is huge, particularly at our latitude along the coastal plain in January. To imply that we have a statistical handle on the likely outcome is disingenuous.

My immediate overreactions... Howie needs to retool the O-line. I know we couldn't keep everyone from last year's squad, but I felt all along he dropped the ball there. KP gone, no brainer. But for the first time I'm questioning Jalen. To be clear, I like him. I'm not a hater. But a lot of ppl smarter than me are questioning if he's capable of running the type of offence the Eagles want to run. I don't study game tape or am smart enough to understand the deeper x's and o's of football. I'm not saying its time to move on from him (it would be a cap disaster if we did). Just wondering it's time to start asking the question. AJ. Time to move on as well. He clearly looks mentally checked out. I had a Ricky Watters/Wally-Gator arms flashback after that first incompletion to him, "for who, for what?" But at only 28, is he also physically diminished? He certainly didn't look elite this year -- not getting separation, not coming down with 50/50 balls. Plus it looks like when he's in the line up, Jalen forces to ball to him to keep the peace. Just my random thoughts. As Paul said, Go Phils!

No way I could buy that those two waves don't destroy each other or do something else dumb like snow in the south, lol

It's more about the general pattern than discreet threats at that range. 11-15 days is a good range for pattern stuff. For example, mid January was kinda the benchmark for the pattern change, and...despite the potential misses, you can see the chsnge happening. I won't attempt to explain as I couldn't; but layman eyes see stuff flowing differently on the models

April Fool's Day looks unsettled with a front moving through bringing cooler wx with scattered shwrs/stms ahead most likely.

I’ll take that surface setup on the GFS for Sunday.

I am using central park which has an average high of just above 39.

That and the weeknd would be quite the local pack for you huh

When ineedsnow gives it 10k:1 odds you know it’s over.

I do? That’s news to me

I know the Canadian typically overdoes the cold, but that is some cold air early next week. Lows close to 0 and feels like in the -10s.....brrr.

Because warm wx without dews is boring and is generally associated with boredom. Dews keep you warm at night outside , no need for hoodies etc.. and always risks of storms . Warm and dry is akin to cold and dry. BOREDOM

St. Patrick's Day looks fair, and cool with what looks like a long wave moving in that will up the temps, and stm potential.

You do.

Nope....will never enjoy that. But I am sick of useless cold and a hobby that is more rewarding.

Who does that ?

Not when you forecast based on 99% emotion, no.

The 12z GEM sure makes the most sense given the cold which is incoming. Lots of small waves.

Employee Appreciation Day on March 6 looks pretty good, but chilly. Some energy from the W may sneak into our region in the days after.

can i just interject/ask? does it have to be dews? why not just warm weather.

Canadian and a few other models like something bear the 20th too.

Not at all. The warm up started on 1/4. From my point and click. 1/15 - 43 1/16-34 1/17 - 40 1/18 - 36 Highs 36-43 are within the normal range for mid-January. So if we cool down on 1/19 as currently forecasted, the warm up was 1/4 to 1/18

Model spread six days out is pretty wild. Basically there's two camps, energy breaks free from primarily trough (GFS, ICON, UKMET) and everything else that keeps the upper level energy consolidated to our North

I'll take the Canadian please. 2 shots

You’re making the natural progression Scooter and I and most others in here made. You’re getting closer to loving dews