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IMG_7191.mov This was at the office in Burlington an hour ago.

NAM is definitely sleet on this sounding at 18z for RDU. Only area above freezing is a small sliver from 850-800mb

It would be funny (not) if this verifies.

I believe in Tom https://www.facebook.com/share/p/17NEQck89Q/

Then, that is very likely that is the mountain wave event. I looked pretty closely earlier today. Wicked downslope. Saw some gusts as high at 65mph on earlier models. That last "streak" usually works its way right up I26. I usually get a text from someone in Gray who says their house is 45 while I am in the upper 20s and low 30s. Bout thirty minutes later...it starts raining at my house. Hahah. Let's hope there isn't ice on those trees as @Holston_River_Ramblernoted earlier today....high winds and ice are a bad combo.

You also have two river valleys that cut through the mountains that the model is seeing and trying to leak some of North Carolina's CAD, French Broad and Nolichucky. Or at least I think that's a possibility

I'm not complaining at all. Finally a good daytime snow.

That may hurt in terms of lingering snow into Sunday Night/Monday but seems if the primary stays south of PA NYC stays mainly snow.

Next run Nam will double qpf because that’s what the Nam does model is trash.

We rarely get ice like this especially county wide. It's usually rain or snow not much ice around here.

We really don't want slower though. We need the precip to come while that confluence is still in the game. But I am not going to lose my shit over a NAM run.

The NAM is beautiful. I'd much rather have the thermals trend favorably and then figure out the precipitation distribution and intensity than the other way around.

The rrfs takes forever to erode the CAD between those downsloping hotspots. Over an inch of zr for my backyard.

If we get an inch of ice I might be staying home drunk, too.

Refuses to transfer....

snippets from Chicago NWS Forecast attention this weekend focuses on the major winter storm expected to have significant impacts across a good chunk of the southern and eastern CONUS. Locally, our area is expected to remain along the northern periphery of this large and expansive storm system, which naturally adds question marks with regards to how far northwest impactful wintery precipitation will fall. This is especially the case considering that a sharp north- northwestern cutoff in precipitation could occur over, or near parts of northwestern IL. Nevertheless, forecast confidence continues to increase in accumulating snowfall falling across much of central into northeastern IL and northwestern IN, most notably during the Saturday night and on Sunday timeframe. While a majority of the heavy precipitation with this system is expected to fall south of our area, as mentioned, chances continue to increase that much of our local area will experience some accumulating snowfall late Saturday through Sunday. The snow may come in two separate waves, with the first potentially coming Saturday afternoon into the evening, and a second coming Saturday night and on Sunday. Interestingly, with the Arctic airmass remaining in place across our area, the thermodyamics profile in which this snow will be generated within will feature a very deep Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ), likely in excess of 10,000 ft. This will in turn foster a higher than average liquid-to- snow ratio than is typical for our area, with 20-25+ to 1 ratios certainly in play. Accordingly, even a tenth to two tenths of an inch of QPF that falls could result in a few inches of dry fluffy accumulation. While confidence does continue to increase in at least parts of our local area experiencing some accumulating snowfall Saturday afternoon into Sunday, uncertainty remains with the specifics. For example, as noted above, one of the main question marks that remains is how far northwest into our area accumulating snow will extend. This as the precipitation looks to fight with drier air trying to advect into the region from the Arctic high to our northwest. The other question resides around the extent of lake enhanced snowfall along the south-southwesterly periphery of Lake Michigan Saturday night into Sunday. Low-level thermodynamic conditions do look favorable for this, and there is concern that this could result in higher snow amounts along and near the lakeshore into Sunday. Stay tuned for forecast updates!

I was taken away from my set by responsibilities. I am kinda glad I didn’t keep calling that weird ass run. I am intrigued by moving to a more GFS solution if it trends more that way but yeah gambling on being stuck in the middle here…

Picked a spot in SW VA where the parent NAM had sleet and 3km NAM had snow for the same time. A couple of degrees difference.

Yea but in this case what it did made sense...weaker wave initially, WAA runs out ahead of the main support, weaker...less Thump...GFS kind of has this...but its offset by a south enough second wave that we just snow for 24 hours... NAM we get the weaker initial thump but then flip anyways. That is the in between screw solution. And its not impossible...not likely...not with only the NAM showing it. But I've seen this kind of thing before...remmeber yesterday when I said "the only way MD doens't get a warning level event is if this splits and the WAA wave runs out ahead and then the second wave cuts...this was that disaster scenario I had made up in my head.

One last jolt from the paddles before last rites read

Can't argue with that. Maybe there will be the illusive Bays Mt lake valley CAD?

its 6-12 on the map for most of nj...on kuchera its 7-13

Still not him, not yet.

by the time the dry slot happens it would be a mix anyway and theres around a foot on the ground in NYC.