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Floodsville

Rain classic

Nam doesn't have alot of rain today.

Fay is born, now expected to peak at 50 kts. Still think there’s an outside chance this storm can approach hurricane intensity. Deep convection has been increasing near the center of the cyclone and in curved bands on its north side over the past several hours. The latest satellite intensity estimates have also increased and range from 35 to 47 kt. Considering these data and the ASCAT pass from last night, the initial wind speed is nudged up to 40 kt. This makes the system Tropical Storm Fay. The storm is quite compact, with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extent only about 40 n mi from the center and the associated convection extends about 100-150 n mi across. The combination of relatively moist air and baroclinic enhancements from an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should cause Fay to gain some more strength during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, the trough is expected to lift out on Monday, and an increase in shear and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause weakening by that time. Fay will likely become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by the end of the week as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term given the improvement in the storm's organization and expected baroclinic support. Fay is drifting to the north-northeast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 020/4 kt. This general motion should continue for about 24 hours. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is anticipated to build to the north of the storm on Monday, and that should cause Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in that direction during the early and middle portions of the week. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near a blend of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 33.7N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 34.1N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 34.0N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 33.3N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 32.0N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 31.0N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z 30.1N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z 28.9N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Euro AI not backing down

Considering the blowtorch in the Pacific that isn't that bad tbh... Thought it would be worse Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Another night of endless midsummer quality, wall shakingly close CGs. Downstream looks like quite the deluge

Been getting a lot of good rains off and on all night

Be careful what you wish for. We might get the Greenland Block plus the Nino moisture. Then look out DMV. That'd be a definitive, textbook George BM winter storm setup with people diggin' out for weeks.

I'm just going to say, with most of the +AAM coming from the equator this is not as much of an anomaly as it would seem, it being the strongest El Nino on record. An equilateral AAM index would probably be +8.

The models are Oct 4th. The difference between the two times (9-23/30 and 10/4) is actually the most drastic difference of the whole year lol. Oct 1 ENSO correlation goes up like 2x.

There is a possibility that a tropical system near Baja California might develop into a Cat 3 Hurricane. I want a high end Cat 5, then all the moisture hits Texas. I crave for unprecedented moisture feeds from off the deep tropical Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico, plus my precious Caribbean Connection! I want catastrophic amounts of rain! I have an Ark. I'll be taking real time water level readings. I'd like to see at least 45 feet of water over the 1626/967 Intersection! BRING IT ON, SUPER NINO!

The AAM went over +4 as expected yesterday (9/19) per the image below, an extremely rare/historic event. The last time it was this high may very well have been in early Feb of 1998. It appears that it will likely stay >+4 into Sept 21st:

Ah yes. The famous -PDO of September 2015 that was actually positive.