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I'm glad PennDOT was on the ball somewhere because 453 from Water Street to Tyrone was pure, unadulterated ass this morning.

Yup...we briefly get a shot of cold air behind the post Thanksgiving time frame and then pup heights right back up ahead of the next system. But hopefully we really do start changing things after that front later in the first week of December. Praying we really do start building heights and ridging into the West so we stop with this building heights ahead of systems, then getting a shot of cold air, only to build heights up as the next trough digging into the west translates east. If we can sustained riding in the west...we won't have to completely worry about that...especially if we can then get some Arctic support on our side.

Didn't this happen in one minute via a Chinook?

Records: Highs: EWR: 70 (1957) NYC: 72 (1921) LGA: 70 (1953) JFK: 64 (1994) Lows: EWR: 19 (1936) NYC: 18 (1936) LGA: 22 (2014) JFK: 23 (2014) Historical: 1921 - The Columbia Gorge ice storm finally came to an end. In Oregon, 54 inches of snow, sleet and glaze blocked the Columbia River Highway at the Dalles. Apart from traffic on the river itself, all transportation between Walla Walla WA and Portland OR came to a halt. Nine trains were stopped as railroads were blocked for several days. (David Ludlum) 1930: A rare, estimated F4 tornado struck the town of Bethany, Oklahoma. Between 9:30 am and 9:58 am CST, it moved north-northeast from 3 miles west of the Oklahoma City limits, and hit the eastern part of Bethany. About 110 homes and 700 other buildings, or about a fourth of the town, were damaged or destroyed. Near the end of the damage path, 3.5 miles northeast of Wiley Post Airfield, the tornado hit the Camel Creek School. Buildings blew apart just as the students were falling to the floor and looking for shelter, and five students and a teacher were killed. A total of 23 people were killed and another 150 injured, with 77 being seriously injured. Damage estimates were listed at $500,000. 1957 - Nineteen inches of snow covered the ground at Cresco, IA, a record November snow depth for the state. (The Weather Channel) 1981 - An unusually early snowstorm struck the Twin Cities of Minnesota, with as much as a foot of snow reported. The weight of the heavy snow caused the newly inflated fabric dome of the Hubert Humphrey Metrodome in downtown Minneapolis to collapse and rip. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A sharp cold front pushed across the Great Lakes Region and the Mississippi Valley. Northwest winds gusting to 50 mph in Iowa caused some property damage around Ottumwa, and wind chill readings reached 16 degrees below zero at Hibbing MN. Showers and thunder- storms over Florida produced 5.80 inches of rain in six hours at Cocoa Beach. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Strong thunderstorms developed during the mid morning hours and produced severe weather across eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into the wee hours of the night. Thunderstorms spawned twenty-one tornadoes, including thirteen in Mississippi. One tornado killed two persons and injured eleven others at Nettleton MS, and another tornado injured eight persons at Tuscaloosa AL. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail in east Texas and northern Louisiana, and Summit MS was deluged with six inches of rain in four hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Gale force winds continued to produce squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region early in the day. Snowfall totals in western New York State reached 24 inches in southern Lewis County, with 21 inches reported at Highmarket. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Northern and Central Plains Region. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Denver CO with a reading of 79 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2003 - Flooding affected the central Appalachians and Eastern Seaboard, with some isolated 8-inch rainfall totals across mountainous areas. There were 11 deaths caused by flooding in the region (Associated Press).

Pattern changes are often rushed on guidance. That’s just typical? Especially -EPO driven changes. I have been posting (along with lots of better Mets) that guidance has been overdoing mid-long range warmth for us for months now. And I personally don’t want our peak pattern on December 1. Our average high is like 52 still! I’m vey good with Thanksgiving through December 10-15 being a transitional period that builds up cold air and snowcover in our source regions.

EPS unleashing some cold

46 / 39 cloudy - should start to clear out in later this pm. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

Not this year. Things are looking quite different.

I need to talk about leaf-blowing. Loud, incessant, gas-powered, leaf-blowing. Weekends and holidays filled with leaf-blowing. It is fine to leaf blow your property. Of course! It's a free country yadda yadda. But please for the love of god don't make leaf-blowing your hobby/passion/addiction/creative outlet/meditation practice. I know, it's so satisfying. But please. There's no need to remove every single leaf. Nor to form artistic piles. Flame me if you will TYVM!

Euro with the 582dm heights into WV/MD and 576 to the NY/PA borer to kick off December. That would be some impressive warmth ahead of the cold front into the mi-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast (unless there happens to be any wedging).

Four years of control is a lot to give up. I know Santander was hurt most of last season... but we would not need O'Neil or Ward if we just kept him.

Stein is a dork, and Julia Childs was drunk most of the time.

Thanks Don, I see your point about the unpredictability of upcoming NE snow. Moreover, this thread isn’t strictly about NE snow (as you know). It’s of course also about NE and other areas’ temperatures, wintry precip in other areas, and many other things. Wintry precip, which is usually more variable/localized than the cold influence of Arctic airmasses, is thus often less predictable than temperatures. Therefore, regarding the potential lagged effects of an SSWE, I’m guessing that temperatures in the NE US as well as for other areas for whatever period would be less unpredictable than snowfall. From what I’ve learned, there’s a significantly better chance than normal for a multi week long period of cold domination in the E US usually starting 2-3+ weeks after an SSW. More often than not the cold will appear in the E US. Most likely that would naturally mean increased wintry precip in parts of the E US, but where is the question? Especially if there’s a decent sized sample, I do like to look back at specific cities’ stats (temps and wintry precip) to give me some idea of the potential, regardless.

Oh Stein https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1991182664204718283?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

After the last couple years, I'm not believing any epic pattern 10+ days out stuff until its slapping me in the face with stinging cold snow.

I would rather have a source of cold air, than hoping for the exact right setup...

I don’t think anyone would’ve bet any sort of money on November snow lol. I’ll concur insofar as if we have another hyped December pattern only to get shut out I’m gonna make a New Years’ resolution to never care about December again. Might just not be able to snow here anymore til January

See talk has now drifted to December instead of Thanksgiving with even some later patter. Can’t duck our heads and just sluff off the start of the infamous “delayed but” potential pattern

I remember numerous modeled snowstorms at day 10 over the past few years. Even some as early as late October. Since there are 4 runs per day of each global model that goes out past day 10 (CMC, ECM, GFS), there will always be more modeled snowstorms than real ones in the long range. It doesn't mean much until it's inside day 7 on more than one model. I'd rather see negative height anomalies and deep trofs at day 10 too. But it doesn't mean I'm excited for any particular snow threat and it doesn't mean I think anything looks different this year than last. What does feel different is that I've already observed falling snow locally on 4 separate occasions and observed accumulations twice. That feels different.

We have had year after year where models in the medium and long range have had raging SE Ridges and wildly warm anomalies for December. I'll take models showing a nice trough in the east with some energy around and take my chances with that any day.

The Vermont DMV uses this as a code for a suspension for Failure to pay Fines.

Models still have it progressing to Ph. 7 by the 1st and crawling through 7.

Nice. Congrats man.

So what was your guess last year during a La Nina dominated by +PNA? PDO was even more negative at this point last year. Could it be more -PNA? Yes! Is it a given? No!

Euro is coming on board with the GFS with some interesting weather looking possible around the Nov 28th-29th and Dec 4th-5th timeframe.