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Honestly my expectation too. It won’t shock me to see these 10+ inch runs shift back down south, but I like the majority of folks around the Berks/Lehigh area for 6-8in

Case in point. The 06z Uk just ticked the northern wave 50 miles further east (more separation).

Close to a mini nuke on the GFS next Thrusday and Friday

Low of 5° so far

Good reminder that even the best experts essentially have no idea how these things trend until they start trending. 48 hours ago everyone was sweating suppression and the strength of the arctic high and worried about another southeast snowstorm. Now we’re praying for the amping to stop.

-3 in Western Berks, pretty impressive I must say. I’m not sure the N trend continues much more with that strong of a high pressure I’d almost expect to see the correction South a bit today, still I like where our Region sits.

Dab-

Afyer reading discussions from the pros in Morristown at the NWS, I'm going old school and just goi g to wait and see what happens. They even say they don't know. In the Hamilton County detailed forecast they are saying sleet, freezing rain, and heavy snow accumulations Saturday and Saturday night. They said models are changing so much they have no way of determining where the snow line will shift. They really don't know. They are keeping temps below 32° for the high Saturday and staying below freezing late Friday night through Sunday afternoon. We might still get it. Remember the old days! Just wait and see what happens. I honestly think we have wayyyy too many different models. They need to just go old school and actually read the maps and make manual adjustments based on climatology and micro-climates. A lot of the new mets are relying on a computer models to tell us what will happen instead of putting in the work to figure out small details. Time will tell. Sorry for the long post. Not a rant, just trying to see things from the eyes of the pros. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Diving into this morning's 0z data. It is even colder, now suggesting DFW could potentially stay below freezing through Wednesday or Thursday next week with potential another shot of Arctic air on Friday. QPF has increased across all modeling. Single digits are a lock and Monday morning could be 0 to 5.

Well hopefully my move will help some with this storm

Interesting discussion from SGF NWS

Congrats nyc

Going to be a fun couple days to see which models handle the phase best. Regardless of the outcome, Im just stoked to have a setup like this to track again. Its been a minute....

700 mb temps is the level we want to watch for any sleet. BL temps, as depicted right now, are very cold so freezing rain will be minimal. Warmest panel on GFS: Warmest panel on Euro: Warmest panel on CMC - no sounding, but looks like 0-1 degrees C on the sounding over DCA.

Looks a little niipply a week from today. Goodness

I’d like to crank that coastal just a bit more to have a higher ceiling. Otherwise not sure I see the PDII analog at the moment. Think ceiling is like 12-18. Which obviously the region would take.

Once all the players get onto the CONUS and we get some data sampling, things will get right back on track.

icon is a great run best run so far for the city but south jersey mixes and even changes to rain around AC. ai gfs is a big hit

But seems to be significantly raising the threat of ice in Richmond, and we don’t want that ish either. Not after ice took out our water infrastructure last year. [emoji52] .

Not even thinking of mixing on the GFS.

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On the GFS, this starts 18z on Sunday and leaves by 12z Tuesday.

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Very True. I should have specified for my location coastal OC NJ. Euro, if depicted correctly would even mix for awhile into the city, and absolutely LI.