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Ukmet slaps us with 10-15”+

2015 is not walking through that door.... yet.

When we are in a pre-gasmic storm build up the trolling really falls flat dude

^If both bust badly, I'm retiring from this "hobby"......

12 UKMET Total QPF storm long duration

I don't think this pattern is one and done. But I'd sure love to get the big hit out of the way right up front.

@Daniel Boone....take a look at the GFS and you can see the consequences of a stronger system this weekend. Give me some of that d10 GFS.

yuck.. Lets hope that is the Ukie doing ukie things. Very curious to see the GEFS and the EPS. How many members of those are starting to cut up the apps?

Ukie is a smoke show, we take

Consider yourself blessed and don't start-

All downhill from here

NC IMBY - You will likely see the models lock in on the CAD more over the coming days. If surface temps are indeed in the teens, that will likely extend up quite a way. At least enough to produce sleet. Maybe even snow for longer than anticipated at the beginning.

Here’s the latest from the Russian Riviera…AI enhanced of course. https://x.com/basilthegreat/status/2013500385067983306?s=46

Ha ha forgot about that. It is starting to darken up.

I'll take that for 2000 Alex!!!

This is what we get when a guy from FL is allowed to start a winter storm thread.

both have snow, so bad for you either way.

Money shot

ECMWF-EPS and EPS-AIFS ensembles have had some a signal for a while now around the end of the month. Some pretty member MSLP's in the GOM into Eastern Canada. Lets hope.

Wow, this clearly shows that record highs have been outpacing record lows at a near 4:1 or 5:1 rate since 2020. Even at the apex of record highs in the 1930s the ratio was only 3:1 at max. Chris Martz is incredibly agenda-driven so that is likely why he didn't accompany this graph with one showing the ratio of high to low records, it would've dismantled his entire argument. Instead he has to rely on big scary numbers and his audience's lack of critical thinking, which is a pretty easy thing to bank on.

Orographic lifting over there could do some crazy things ....

12z Ukie:

Ukie cuts and looks a lot like the CMC.....even with the warm nose all the way to Pennsylvania.

Ud think the 1040mb High would force that 1005 mb low south..!!