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RDU finished with just 1.54” of rainfall during May which is less than 1/2 the normal amount for the month. With only 8.32” for the year it also marks the driest start to a year through June 1 in history (132 years) for the observing site.

My ‘26 prediction is for 8/4/1 with 52 ACE. Anyone else?

Another gorgeous morning - comfortable dew points for the whole work week ahead? Sign me up for that, any week june thru sept.

Decent chance for rain coming later this week. Lets hope for a better month in that regard.

That all aside ... heat, where are we and what - What was once merely suggestive is now ... call it 'modestly' impressive. A signal for heat along 100 W/mid latitude continent. This has been in the ensemble clustered means for days -overnight is interesting. The simple version first, if and when this wave function collapses, the heat it containers will unleash and synoptically spread E with the prevailing vector. A hot time for day if not a heat wave. GFS ensemble mean centered on June 9 ... notice the +AO, too - The EPS and GEPs are in principle the same, with the same implications. The trough sag on the EC is legit... some 1/3 members refuse to admit to this [probable] evolution. The ridge NE of HA over the lower GOA is a favorable wave geometry for positive height anomaly around Michigan - heat wave for them... But the +AO/+NAO, ongoing, suggests that spreads E. I'm noticing even in the operational runs there are occasional Sonoran release signals, an implication whenever there is ridge-trough-ridge signal between 130W and 90W/mid latitudes. The operational versions or definitely toying with something of a warmer recovery... They are not taking advantage of the expansion this aloft gives them, but the polar branch appears to finally be decaying. That's precarious. At least in so far as what all this means for us N-E of the Mason Dixie, where we've been stuck in a troughy/cold purgatory for several weeks. As an side, despite the heat wave in May, May had trouble actually averaging above normal ... Logan ( ironically) did best in that regard, but interior climo sites were decimals of average, having days in the 90s. That means that the weight of the month was colder -statistics sometimes lie like that. Like Scott and I have noted several times in the past, we just go bonkers when we do get warm, and this is stressing/offsetting the perception of a cooler sensible journey.

Because it has the front draped just north

Yikes, the ensembles are not pretty for total rainfall for the next couple weeks. Posting the canadian for no real reason, the others all tell the same dry story:

Don’t even know exactly. We used solar city which is now Tesla.

I can't either, but we had a rather cool and wet summer a few years back, too, if I remember correctly. Just can't think of exactly what year it was, though.

Yeah one last mid level trough to swing through down there. At least the cold pool moves east overnight. Slow improvements.

Well you said 80s Euro is not that

Oh it won't verify. 1/2" is probably being too optimistic, it'll be less than that.

On and off drizzle this morning.. perfect for the start of meteorological summer

We rained overnight in the 40s, then cleared out as it moved south. Feels sort of like Saturday. Nasty when everyone was asleep, then by 8am it was breaking blue.

How many panels do you have? Do you mind sharing what company you used?

somewhat neutralish to negative but lets see where the next few months take us. Month AMO Jan 2025 +1.15 Feb 2025 +0.44 Mar 2025 +0.33 Apr 2025 +0.41 May 2025 +0.30 Jun 2025 -0.72 Jul 2025 -0.38 Aug 2025 -0.22 Sep 2025 -0.90 Oct 2025 +0.46 Nov 2025 +0.72 Dec 2025 +0.42 Jan 2026 +0.34 Feb 2026 +0.66 Mar 2026 -0.62

Actually Brian this is meteorologically interesting ( I guess...). I was looking at the GFS 850 mb charts more closely...you can see this pivoting S ... maybe it's like the opposite of yesterday. Nice through noon, than a piece of shit, today's the mirror of that.

To be fair, we are also putting a major dent in the warm pool, and the warmest waters are now between 160-170E with plenty of westerlies remaining in the forecast.

Already getting breaks moving in overhead. Sure, there will be a little self destruction, but even BKN skies would be nice.

Wonder if the -AMO is coming back?

we'll see... I suspect you're seeing the motion on sat, en masse going SW? but this is a legit cold insert behind the weakly defined low moving E of Cape Ann out there over the lower GOM. Already you can see strata streets filling in over Fryeburg and up along the steppe of Maine's interior. I'm curious to see how how much 'clearing' takes place. i'll give it to you though that the day is long and we spend longer time in apex solar so ... there'll be some thermodynamic processing