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Could there be a big noreaster with very high winds as we have seen at the end of October before?

Sounds like a winter pattern setting up. The end of October for whatever reason is one of those periods in which strong noreasters are common, so maybe we will have a big rain and wind event? If so, the noreaster pattern is setting up early this season.

I don't spray anything outside, just inside, when mosquitoes come inside they are fair game. The ones that come inside are very aggressive, I've been chased across my house by mosquitoes. I guess the ones that come inside are of the extra aggressive variety? And now we have that new tropical parasite to worry about. I do let spiders handle most indoor insects. There's a spider in one of my windows that grabs mosquitoes and other insects regularly (even hornets). It fascinates me, it's a small spider and some of the insects it gets are up to 3x its size. I had to use Permethrin on my clothes because last summer I found 6 black legged ticks on my clothes and would have to undress and leave my clothes outside submersed in a bucket of water and change clothes in my garage. This was even with Permethrin on my clothes, so I'm not sure how effective it was. Along with reduced pollinator populations, I'm not sure if people realize how fragile our entire ecosystem is, even our monotype agriculture is one step away from being completely wiped out. We have unsafe drinking water here, our aquifers have been found to have a carcinogenic pesticide that has infiltrated our drinking water so I've put a whole home six stage filter on our water, which I have to change once a year. The wild thing about coal is, it creates more radioactive waste than nuclear fission does and yet people are more worried about nuclear power for some reason. I understand that nuclear isn't without risk, but coal is so much worse.

Anyone got winter stats at BWI, IAD, or DCA for a cold November in a weak -ENSO or ENSO neutral?

Just no rain on Halloween please.

Glad I took a 330pm “lunch break” while it was still sunny out. Almost a summer-like demarcation of clouds and sun on satellite. Nice little cloud deck has rolled in to finish off the day.

NG was up another 2.4% today on even colder modeled HDDs vs yesterday: 0Z EPS (purple) had 7 more HDDs vs prior EPS: Then later the 12Z GEFS (purple) had several more HDDs than the prior GEFS runs: @mitchnick@LakePaste25

A strong cold front will move across the region tonight. Parts of the region will see some showers and perhaps a thundershower. Following the frontal passage, an extended period of cooler than normal weather will follow. Highs tomorrow will top out in the lower 60s. Readings will then rise only into the middle and upper 50s through at least the coming weekend. There is a growing likelihood that the closing days of October into the opening days of November could experience a significant rain event. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +15.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.870 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Just trying to give Kevin hope before he walks in front of a tractor trailer on the I-84 Tolland Triangle.

That would be a lovely early season treat for the mountain folks and a select few further East on an unrelated note, when is the last time the Charleston area received significant snowfall two consecutive winters in a row? I’ve got a good feeling about this one.

Bank it!

Hope so...it seems every system coming up from the south has high pressure building down from the north at the same time, suppressing it...just bad timing or what?

Mark?

12z was close

Yeah, interesting! Quite different from my heyday Year's of Forecasting(I'm an Antique). Makes for a tougher seasonal forecast for sure , and to some degree medium range.

Down to 57 degrees and rain.

maybe 0z will be good again

The insecticide we were using in the nesting material was permethrin-laced cotton, so that it would not spread beyond the nesting site. The goal was to kill off the larval blacklegged ticks on the white-footed mice to help control Lyme disease spread, since the mice are the primary reservoir for the Lyme bacteria. There was limited success, but we would truly need way more than we could possibly put out in nature to truly make a difference. We try not to use any insecticides that can travel for the exact reasons you are wrong about below. Permethrin and insecticides that stay in fibers are safe while protecting the user. The number one most terrible thing being done today is things like Mosquito Joe, spraying backyards. Mosquitoes travel for well over a few miles, so treating a backyard does absolutely nothing for mosquitoes, while obliterating your local good insect population. The biodiversity crisis is honestly the most alarming thing to me, more so than climate change, and that is alarming as well. If we have to start paying people to pollinate all our major crops, we are screwed. We are going backwards. People are more focused on weird health trends versus actually trying to be healthy by having a healthy environment. Many do not like spending any appreciable time outside because it is "gross" or "buggy". I always tell my students that you can always eat well, exercise, not smoke, etc., but if you live in an area with impaired drinking water, your risks for a lot of health issues skyrocket. If you live near a coal mine, your risks for various cancers skyrocket through no fault of your own. It is wild out there.

Elliott is actually undefeated off bye weeks, so I would've been hoping for better. But hard not to be super stoked as a UVA football fan. Was at the Florida State game and got my tickets for Tech. Would be unbelievably frustrating to be 9-1 and lose against Tech still to drop us from the CFB Playoffs. Hurts me to type it

I guess it's sleet/mix? Wacky run lol.. within 10 days. Tropical Tidbits doesn't have it as snow haven't renewed my subscriptions anywhere else yet

Yes, some of the ECMWF runs have been wildly unrealistic. Above normal rainfall is possible, though.

this is the ideal day, even the wind is much less than it was yesterday. these frequent frontal passages are a fly in the ointment though (but a sign it's Fall.)

I know about your credentials, we've discussed them before and I respect them. But why are you using insecticides in mice nesting material? As a scientist you must be aware of the effect this has on local bird populations that feed on mice, like owls? There has to be a better way that doesn't impact other wildlife, such as birds. I had an invasion of ticks at my other house in the Poconos when a deer crashed into my pool and died there. Most of the ticks that I saw that summer were black ticks. I bought something to spray on my clothes as a tick repellant-- permethrin. I also read that opossum are the most efficient way to deal with ticks, as they are their main natural predator. So I've been encouraging more opossum onto that property and the ticks have been going down. We have opossum here too even though I live in a semi-urban area, I think they would be a great way to drive down the tick population without using chemicals. I am well aware of Lyme disease and how it's spread to other areas. I blame stupid humans who decided that it's better to remove predators like coyotes and wolves and cougars that feed on white tailed deer who are the primary vector of the tick that carries Lyme disease. Maybe if humans didn't kill off the predators we wouldn't have an explosion of white tailed deer. I think you misinterpreted what I stated, I never said we should remove ALL wetlands, just trim them back from highly populated areas. As for drainage, not using concrete and asphalt would help with drainage as well as helping with urban heat island. I'm all for more greenery, as in more trees and native plants and grasses, less of the invasive stuff that has become so common here. I am 100% against pesticides. They are the main driver of the 6th mass extinction in the planet's history, as much of a problem as climate change is. And are destroying our own systems of food production by causing the collapse of pollinator populations. Something I always like to say is that humans are part of the environment, we can't consider ourselves separate from it, because what we do to it, we also do to ourselves. We're all interconnected. As far as mosquitoes are concerned, malaria is one of the top killers on the planet and there are many other mosquito borne diseases. We have better ways than using toxic chemicals. Bill Gates idea of using sterilized genetically modified mosquitoes is one of them to control their populations. By the way, thanks for mentioning microplastics. Did you know that 6 out of 13 types of cancer are on a rapid rise even in younger people because of a combination of highly processed food, microplastics in food as well as environmental toxins like pesticides? It seems like we are going backwards and regressing. Humanity isn't sustainable in its current form.

Kind of looks like the 13-14 analog might be showing its hand....