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NAM will be vindicated on this one. Happens every time

@John1122, I am not sure I trust the Euro Weeklies right now, but as @GaWxnoted...pretty big changes in the week 3-5 range. Basically, the pattern just is wash...rinse...repeat. NAO/Aleutian high -> NAO/+PNA...over and over. This is week 3, and would be awesome to have for peak climatology.

Prison?

That depends on where you were. Places well north and west of the city did get a heavy snow event with this one. Allentown had 17”. Places in upstate NY measured into the feet.

nam can't sniff anything anymore it's a terrible model i haven't looked at nam since 2016

Wow, 27 mph gust! Heavy winds the last hour...Merry Christmas all

Your missing my point I’m talking about its ability to sniff out mid level warmth

Hopefully that drier air is closer to Central/Eastern Ma

you have some serious work to do to keep that #1 spot. That other season you are competing with is bonkers

The entire evolution of the storm is a bit too aggressive and too far north on the NAM, but the sleet line will likely be a lot further north that the what the other models show.

bro nam is the crappiest model of all. It's getting discontinued for a reason! NYC is in a great spot for this storm

That's why we have ensembles. The normal run is just one member in a mix of like 50. You ever see a printout of all the members and how wildly different they are? All that difference is due to miniscule changes at the start in each if the results. Weather is the ultimate complex stochastic, non-deterministic system. Even though it is based on deterministic physical laws. One would need to know the position and momentum of all molecules that make up the earth and it's atmosphere at the starting condition in order to attain perfect models. One reason models go from blizzard to flurries is it's a whole lot harder to have things happen in the precise order and precise timing but the answer to your question is not to ever relay on a single model run of a single model. Blended forecasts based on multiple models and model runs are the rule for a reason. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

No but I bet it’s further north than most think

Prob too aggressive

Merry Christmas!! I really hope so Jax. Once we get into January, clock is ticking for sho!

Only goes out to 21 hours

NAM shows sleet to Albany. You buying that?

Agree but the NAM showing what it does doesn't mean it's right either especially when it's own 3k disagrees.

My nephew got a new puppy and my Christmas present is that Chip has chosen my lap to nap. Merry Christmas!

We go through this every year the Nam is good at showing the mix line which always ends up further north in the end alot of denial out there

If you buy how dry the NAMs are…I personally don’t. Sleet ratios are typically around 3:1 and I think we get at least an inch of pure sleet, along with up to an inch of snow.

An identical 72.8 as yesterday. At least it’s fun to get the kids outside playing with their presents

This is gonna be a crazy battle between the mid and upper level support for heavy snow and the obscene dry arctic air to the northeast. I’m looking at several different models right now and almost all of them are punching some serious lift, fronto, and dPVA well into SNE, but the further northeast you go, it just fights that ridiculous low level arctic air. There’s gonna be crazy Virga on the northeast side. Prob the type of system where you have Virga under 15-20 dbz returns.

These trending to being just a meh nuisance is so disappointing

Come on the best has shifted north