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Officially 959 mb from the dropsonde.

This is exceptionally rapid organization. 15z on 10/25 04z now, on 10/26

I mean, one has to imagine based on what we are seeing on latest imagery, pressure will be even lower on next pass.

Final recon pass until morning found 114 kts flight level and 959 mb extrap. This thing is barely moving.

Intense VHT is now going up in the NE eyewall. Obviously, we're in an ongoing rapid intensification phase. Expect some beefy pressure drops between now and Sunday afternoon with such an eyewall presentation on radar, which is getting more and more symmetrical each passing hour.

That is…wow…

Good lord. ~940mb by morning? Maybe even lower? Throw intensity guidance out the door, Melissa is about to go low

HOLY COW.

Bombs away with this microwave satellite presentation hot off the press. Very well organized inner core.

The same reason people get married.

Cold nov/dec = JanuBuried in DCA. Fixed. FebuBuried, too. No mercy. Morched, too.

Mid Atlantic will be digging a LOT of snow this winter. Bank on it.

I'll keep it 100 by admitting that yes we did get one last bit of the overall weather system tonight. Pretty good real heavy shower with thunder that was loud as hell. May have picked up a quick quarter inch. In a few days, massive cold front will smash into south central Texas bringing our very first official HIGHS in the 60s and lows near 40. Brrrrrrrr! It's gonnabe fun and refreshing! I might take a very slow painful jebwalk in it too. Left knee and foot's a birtch these days. Word to the wise: Too damn much jebwalking when you're young can end up like the Jebman at 61 lmao.

Right with you.

Satellite actually already looks stronger than the 11PM advisory, looks Cat 4ish. Wouldn't be surprised if it is at 2AM.

Agree

Things are looking promising for a big December.

It will cool the water at least slowly because it’s taking the potential energy from the warm ocean and converting it into kinetic energy (its a heat engine). That’s related to tropical cyclones redistributing heat to higher latitudes. That’s in addition to any cooling of the surface from upwelling. I believe these are two separate processes.

OHC is very deep in that part of the Caribbean. The 26°C isotherm is over 100 meters of depth. It would take a multi-day stall before upwelling became a significant factor, and we're talking in terms of a Category 5 sustaining itself. For all practical purposes, the main reason even slow-moving hurricanes in the western Caribbean can maintain Cat 5 intensity well into November. Some of our most powerful historical Cat 5s were slow movers in that part of the world (Wilma, Mitch, etc.). It's where the Western Hemisphere's version of WPAC typhoons can occur, though still considerably rare.

Damn, now I have to adjust my travel plans for the next 46 days. Does this account for mixing?

967 mb, 115 kts flight level on the last pass. The eye has been tracking south of west this evening.

i know its in the warmest water in the entire atlantic but would nor the slow movement cause upwelling?