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I took a pick of EastCoast NPZs yard

0.35 for me Sat and today

.09 rain here this afternoon.

Monday might be a high temp bust for my area if we get storms or storm outflow tonight. Could use any rain at this point though, and Tuesday and Wednesday will not bust.

A warming trend has gotten underway. The warmth will continue to build through the remainder of June before culminating in a severe heatwave to start July. Some of the guidance suggests that the heat could rival that of early July 1966. Much of the region will likely experience its highest temperatures so far this summer. Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will all likely see the temperatures peak at or above 100°. Washington, DC could make a run at its all-time record of 106°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -11.81 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.126 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2 (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

My AC died in July 2011. Went 2 or 3 weeks before a new one was installed. I wouldn’t say I got used to the heat so much as I came to accept the poor state of affairs I found myself in.

This is apparent temp, not actual air temp. Apparent temp is a biological factor only. A world exists beyond the biological. And we assume everyone has the same tolerance to heat, which is false. It varies widely. There are been a noticeable shift focusing way more on apparent temp than the actual air temp, which is what matters most in the end. We do not have a solid climo history of apparent temp either for historical perspective. And ever notice apparent temp is only talked about when it is higher than the air temp? I wonder why. I'll tell you why, for a dew point of about 58 or less, the apparent temp is actually *lower* than the air temp, so it feels better/less bad. Can't hype that. The door swings both ways here.

NWS page still really struggling today

A 110 HI wouldn’t be unprecedented, but it would be upper echelon for the area (speaking of BDL/HFD)

What?

Supercell pix Danvers MA from 6/26 https://www.facebook.com/share/1JPtm7q9nt/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Keep your expectations in check for this winter. Expect the worst and hope for the best.

Bomb Heat Dome.

2024 was a pretty insane year in terms of heat around here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/12/30/washington-dc-warmest-year-climate/ First January 80F on record, Nov temp of 84F was the warmest on record so late in the year. The 100F temps, the most 80F+ lows on record (8). But still a pedestrian 48 90+ days. IT was just kind of wall-to-wall warm.

If sea breeze can kick in right at the beach it will save the day. If west or NW flow prevents it you will cook. Friday looks like the best day to cook. Local sea breeze could save the day on Thursday and / or Saturday.

I can’t believe I don’t remember this at all! Thanks for the reminder.

the stretch in July 2024 was one of the worst - 4 straight days of 101F+, which was a record. We'll see how this one stacks up.

we hit it six times back in 2024, with the hottest being 104. That was the first time since 2016 I believe. We hit 100 a couple weeks back as well.

I'm looking for a 105 in New Brunswick on Thursday or Friday.

Good. That just makes it "nearly unprecedented!" Seriously, I have seen that in media headlines. Any excuse to sneak the word "unprecedented." They love their buzzwords.

Agree with upper 90s overall maybe a spot 100° Thursday or Friday (not both) especially for the torch spots like WXW1 lol. We get close to 100° but never over. That said, the real story is heat indices. That’s going to be legit and long duration, and the HI where people live will be outrageous.

Only if they are low-carb will they get that warm.

At the end of the day, that’s all people remember. That was really hot. It’s kind of like arguing -10F, -15F, -20F etc. it’s all rather unpleasant for the public.

You keep wondering if someone will hit 110-111