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Power outage baseline is too high this morning with significant outages in Middlesex and Ulster counties.

Shock to the System at 6am Texas time today, been out delivering then had a look at Mammoth. Well whaddaya know????? The temperature FINALLY managed to fall to 28 degrees and the precip redeveloped and its snowin and blowin out there! At least 4 inches at Main Lodge level, may be 5 or 6. It is even snowing now at Village level with 1-2 inches there!! Personnel FINALLY have a golden opportunity to run the fuck out of all those brand spankin new snow guns at Mammoth! Run 'em to DEATH! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam Woolly is the best camera now that its lights out at the Main Lodge! Wow lets see what they get! I'm off the Ledge. Reaper can rest, for now lol

Nah it wasn’t supposed to start on 12/1

think weeklies were meh anyways first week. My energy friend isn’t bullish until after the first week.

The second the “ push it back “ and let’s hold off the change until mid month posts start coming . You know where that ends up

First reports... JST had 43KT prior to 5A. Here in the last 3 hours closer... KMDT: Harrisburg, Harrisburg Intl Arpt, PA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

Strong warm air advection.

Ya that's been sneakily trending West.. I don't mind pushing back to Dec 10 if we can have some real winter Dec 10 to Dec 31 for a change..

We did get one very warm year in that mix during 31-32. But there was no sustained warmth like we have had over the last decade. The interesting thing is that even the smaller temperature rise from 1870 to 1940 when emissions first began to rise saw a significant decline in snowfall. For the first time we have a full 30 year weather dataset prior to this period. From 1843-1844 to 1872-1873 the 30 year climate mean snowfall at Newark was 43.7” of snow a year. Only 2 years with under 20” of snow with 10 years averaging over 50” of snow. The winter average temperature was 30.8°. So more conformation that areas near the coast require a winter average temperature near or under freezing for a 50” season. The current 7 snowfall season period at Newark has featured a 17.3” average snowfall with a 37.5° average temperature. So areas just west of the current I-95 corridor probably averaged 45-50” a season from parts of Somerset across Morris. Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.8 9.1 12.1 12.6 7.3 1.8 43.7 1843-1844 0.0 1.3 9.5 5.5 13.5 1.8 0.0 31.6 1844-1845 0.0 0.5 6.5 5.5 20.5 5.5 T 38.5 1845-1846 0.0 T 8.5 16.5 28.0 T T 53.0 1846-1847 0.0 1.5 12.0 10.0 21.0 4.3 0.5 49.3 1847-1848 0.0 T 6.0 T 8.0 5.0 T 19.0 1848-1849 0.0 1.3 24.0 T 13.0 6.0 0.0 44.3 1849-1850 0.0 0.0 11.0 3.0 T 9.0 8.0 31.0 1850-1851 0.0 0.0 6.0 2.5 3.5 10.5 2.0 24.5 1851-1852 0.0 2.0 7.0 20.0 14.0 16.0 4.3 63.3 1852-1853 0.0 T T 15.5 2.3 7.0 T 24.8 1853-1854 0.0 M 6.0 15.0 23.5 2.8 13.5 60.8 1854-1855 0.0 T 8.0 18.5 16.0 2.5 T 45.0 1855-1856 0.0 T 9.0 32.8 5.0 11.0 0.0 57.8 1856-1857 0.0 0.5 4.3 28.1 2.1 17.0 0.0 52.0 1857-1858 0.0 T 4.5 1.8 10.5 10.5 T 27.3 1858-1859 0.0 5.5 6.5 12.3 15.8 6.0 T 46.1 1859-1860 3.0 0.0 5.1 11.3 25.0 2.5 T 46.9 1860-1861 0.0 T 7.0 20.6 1.3 17.0 2.0 47.9 1861-1862 0.0 1.0 1.0 12.0 25.5 4.6 6.0 50.1 1862-1863 0.0 6.5 8.0 10.0 13.0 10.9 1.8 50.2 1863-1864 0.0 T 4.3 7.0 1.0 7.0 T 19.3 1864-1865 0.0 0.3 26.0 10.5 12.5 T 0.0 49.3 1865-1866 0.0 0.0 13.1 11.8 8.0 1.5 T 34.4 1866-1867 0.0 T 7.0 23.5 15.5 17.5 T 63.5 1867-1868 0.0 T 15.5 23.3 14.0 15.0 7.0 74.8 1868-1869 T 0.0 9.5 11.0 12.0 5.0 0.6 38.1 1869-1870 T T 8.1 1.8 8.5 11.0 3.0 32.4 1870-1871 0.0 T 5.0 16.0 16.1 1.3 2.0 40.4 1871-1872 0.0 T 8.5 2.0 5.0 8.5 T 24.0 1872-1873 0.0 4.0 25.1 14.1 23.3 2.2 3.0 71.7

Surprised to see we are still below freezing here. Some freezing rain overnight but nothing falling at the moment.

"Just a little patience..."

CTP’s disco today mentions thundersnow. I imagine @MAG5035 and @2001kx get some great bands.

can we survive winter without a snow event >1"? that'd be sick

At least we have upslope pics to look forward to before the cutters come.

Yeah I expect that tendency. What we need to see is some NAO ridging which does show some signs at the end of the run. I don’t expect us to have legit threats until after first week of December. Anything before is gravy. I’m not the biggest fan of seeing that Bering Sea ridge. It’s not a bad thing, but it’s far enough west to keep the PNA negative too. Personally just would like to see it more east.

Noticed a few more PM's in my inbox. Will be adding more in the next couple of days.

I find it deeply weird when the temperature climbs into the 60s four hours after sunset in November and remains at that level all night.

Cheap labor is only one part of the story. "China has close to 50 graduate programs that focus on either battery chemistry or the closely related subject of battery metallurgy. By contrast, only a handful of professors in the United States are working on batteries." https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/how-china-built-tech-prowess-chemistry-classes-and-research-labs-124081000019_1.html https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20251110-how-china-won-the-worlds-battery-race

GEFS caving to EPS with that trough setting up in the west post Thanksgiving.

Probably had close to half a dozen booms and big flashes, total was .43"

50 degrees and current wind speed 21 mph. 31 mph wind gust. Crazy wind

Its 50 degrees out... still haven't even come close to a killing frost here...

Worried about SER this winter. I’ve seen this tune before it gets going and PNA continues to screw us until a one week post frontal cold snap in January especially in a La Niña year. This setup is tough to burn in the SE especially when it’s already rearing its head. Could flip, but color me concerned with PNA trending negative. At least it’s mid November not mid December heading into a screwball pattern but winters where the SER gets going and Pacific trends to hell tend to have repeat performances through the season and being a Nina year It doesn’t feel great seeing this pattern show up

Received no rain overnight. Temp is a balmy 62F at 3 AM. Pressure is down to 990.2 mb. Winds are light... For now.