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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I also don't see the need for all of the hype right now....I see nothing exciting in terms of threats. -
Winter 25/26 General Obs
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
There is apparently a TDOT camera in just the right area at mm 53: Under two miles up I-81 a mm 54.8: I wish I had planned on a Kingsport trip today, so I could do some investigating. -
So far, since late November, we have been following a textbook front-loaded canonical La Niña pattern to a tee. They are typically cold in the east from late November through late January before they flip for February. Whether or not this one continues to follow that from here on out or becomes atypical for February and March remains to be seen. We should know where this one is headed within the next 3 weeks. I think it’s going to take a big, anomalous stratospheric shakeup (i.e. 2018), like you think might happen, to break from the evolution we have been following and not flip come February and March. As of right now, I don’t see another way to avoid the classic Niña winter footprint we are following other than that (stratosphere)…..
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And should be our ceiling, not our floor
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
WinterWolf replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Been trying to say this for a long while. That’s all you need to see(bombs everywhere else ) to know that idea is complete BS. It’s just random bad ju ju…and that’s it. At some point it will change, like it did for us through the 2000’s and 2010’s, when pretty much 90% of all SW’s came together for us no matter what. -
This X100. My area has been relatively lucky this year and past years and even I am getting sick of thin stripes of "win" where it covers like 50 miles N to S.
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Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
Burghblizz replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
8” report from an area basically right by the Meadows. And it’s not moving. I’m partially fascinated and partially jealous. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I am so utterly, fu)king sick of this decade. -
Does anyone else routinely have trouble copy/cut/pasting text (e.g., LWX text products) into posts? What's your method oh master @yoda ? It works about half the time for me. Sometimes it helps to paste first into like a gmail, doc etc, sometimes makes no difference. Browser tinkering and sign out/in no difference. My attachments are not over limit. Not really important lol I was going to post the winter commuting hazard for NEMD tomorrow morning but have been wondering and usually give up.
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If next year’s Niño materializes and the improvement in the PDO continues I wonder if 2027 will be remembered in the same vain as 2016 and 2003?
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
"Don't see it right now...once this happens, then we have a shot"....take all of the frustration out on the can and keep kicking the ever-living $hit out of it -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
canderson replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Harrowing night. Not much sleep at all. Winds should decrease into the 20s this evening. -
It can be an infuriating hobby, especially if you love snow. 1 winter storm in the past 6 winters is tough to endure. At least the ski resorts are going to make up for a lot of lost revenue
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About a quarter of an inch here. Between a half inch and a inch in Dryden , about 2 miles ENE of Pennington gap. Norton and Wise 1-2 inches.
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Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
PghPirates27 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Awesome glad to see some folks getting under the snow bands. I got in a few last week and got dumped on. These ones missed me to the south this time. Only about a coating to 1/2" here. -
There's some on here that cliff jumps every 6 hours for sure For some its part of their shtick. Until we see some sustained southern stream moisture I'm pretty pessimistic for getting a decent region wide snowfall. Can we time up some southern stream with cold air? We haven't been able to in years. I'm not looking for a HECS. Just a region wide 4-8" that starts as snow and stays snow.
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Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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New Years Day 2026 - 1st snows of the new year possible
CoastalWx replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Congrats S coast and Cape. -
We made it to 67 yesterday late in the day so we had a 40 degree drop from 3 pm to our low of 26.6 at around 7 am. That’s impressive
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26.6 this morning for the low, finally felt like winter again
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Yeah these flakes are sizable. The best thing is that non of the models showed this at all.
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Same general look, but the position/amplitude of the trough in the Pacific is slightly different with the EPO ridge further east. Impacts the location and character of the downstream trough. The bottom panel is a nice gradient look. Get a wave or 2 with the boundary to our south and we snow.
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Few flurries!
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2025-2026 ENSO
donsutherland1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The ongoing PNA- will eventually end, even if the 0z GEFS sustains it through its forecast period. Once that happens, recent historical experience (since 1980) suggests that the PNA will likely undergo a regime change to mainly positive values. The same kind of regime change took place for all 10 25-day or longer streaks that began in November or December. -
what do you consider a "bigger" snow event ?
