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Here's substack post from new app https://open.substack.com/pub/actuallyweather/p/which-forecast-is-best?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=16mod Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Would think it's a step back. Especially compared to 0Z ECMF run

Amen brother!!!!

Totally read that as dopeslope .

Would have been 20” easy in Long Beach where I was then had we not wasted hours on heavy sleet. It absolutely dumped.

Would expect qpf numbers to dry up a bit and models usually are overdone at this range.

Tony pann And Ava of WBAL tv talks about possible mixing and about noaa sending reconnaissance planes to gather better data for the 00z runs .. https://www.facebook.com/share/v/18QGwW7Ryy/ Tonights runs could be interesting to say the least!!

I also made the Nassau to Suffolk move. But I haven’t been as lucky as you. But the last big one I made out well had almost like 2 feet

Where is Stormyweather with the Mogreps?

Just went out a couple of hours ago to get one of my LP tanks filled/exchanged, grab a few groceries, and get some gas. Mission was unsuccessful. If you don’t have it by now, you ain’t gettin it.

Not in Mass (thank gawd!)

Damn, I really need to get some sleep tonight lol

For anyone who wants a look at Google's new weather model, meteorologist Eric Fisher has a simple forcast viewer on his github https://efisher828.github.io/weathernext/ Here's more information on it https://deepmind.google/science/weathernext/ https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/projects_gcp-public-data-weathernext_assets_weathernext_2_0_0 If anyone has the technical background I believe you can already do a whole lot more Finally this new endeavor I came across that has a whole lot of potential even though it currently only had temperature and wind verification scores. https://www.actuallyweather.com/?run_date=2026-01-21 What's neat is it has it by major weather reporting station, like kmdt. The promise is soon we could have scorecards for about 50 variables like snow, and rainfall, along with ability to customize periods. And yes, I understand the scorecards put out by the nws and euro are for much larger areas and maybe even tracking slightly different metrics, but dear God they require hours of study to even interpret probably as the user base for them usually have phD. While I understand that accuracy in temperature or qpf for a single location has the probability of noise being potentially exponentially bigger than the signal, (i.e a model, especially an mL one that continuelly maximizes minute station details may quickly Decoherence at the upper air forcasts that drive accurate forcasting at a greater geospatial scale; in happy that a true effort is finally being made to score at the level we all care bout and spend so much effort discussing. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Great. I managed to stay freezing rain basically the whole run.

Getting excited for my first long duration plow event since ‘21. I have since switched companies and now only have to take care of our shop/storage unit site. Not a lot of places to put the snow, going to have to account for that since we should still have some chances down the road. Won’t be far from @Yardstickgozinya and will try to get some pics in. We have a full kitchen in the shop, thinking about whipping up some potato soup and throwing it in a croc pot for some quick refreshment.

One thing I noticed was the GFS OP was actually warm compared to the GEFS suite... 14 straight days and nights below freezing after tomorrow as a MEAN compared to how the OP warmed at the long range Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Recon discussion from the Baja low says that it injested copious dry air from the desert in Mexico and it will turn moist low pressure into dry high pressure when it phases with the northern stream.

Recon is in flight out off of Baja. Not sure if it’s specifically for this storm, but more data injected into tonight’s runs won’t hurt

I moved to commack in 2015, so i missed it by two years. But the reports show 29" in commack. Back in nassau i had only 14" or so. Bummer! That 29" is probably an all timer for us. bigger than 96, PD 1, PD2, Boxing day, etc.

The 18z ICON is relatively warm and amped, but it also shows a pathway to really big totals and a longer duration event. With a full phase there is a sharp trof back to the west Sunday night. This partly captures the surface low over the Atlantic and induces another round of precipitation in EPA, NJ, SENY, and SNE on Monday after nearly dryslotting late Sunday. Notice the 18z ICON isn't done snowing at 120hrs. It shows a nearly stalled and intensifying 995mb low just off NY Harbor with light to moderate snow throughout the area. A few model runs (and several individual ensemble members) have blown up this coastal low adding several tenths of QPF on Monday. Shift the ICON slightly south with the overrunning and you have a very significant and long duration event.

Yeah just bleeding each run but like I said, moderate to perhaps still heavy snow and then ice without any plain rain is still fun. I meant those big boy runs were getting away from us on the coastal plain.

And look, it could all be for nought, but I don't think we've seen the final result quite yet The shortwave has a ways to go: and as you can see from my earlier post, models have struggled with how it arrives in the US.

Yeah... I know they said we're going to have some snow coming through this evening. I'd forgotten, so after dinner I had to bring something out to recycle and it was snowing pretty good with a covering everywhere

Well I hope it unfolds favorably...or else Mr. Ucinelli may have a storm bearing his name in a realm of weenie infamy...

00z tonight per someone over at Southernwx