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July was similar nationally to 2002, 2003, 2006 more than the recent El Ninos, in terms of US temp profile. Recent events (2009-) were either much colder or had different spatial distributions for warm/cool areas. July is close enough to winter that you can probably infer meaningfully what will happen from the tele-connection set. This is July 2026: -EPO, -WPO, +PNA, -NAO, +AO. Of those, EPO was extremely negative. -EPO July, El Nino: 1957, 1963, 1969, 1976, 1979, 1986, 1991, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2018 -WPO July, El Nino: 1953, 1957, 1969, 1972, 1986, 1991, 2002, 2006, 2014, 2018, 2019 +PNA July, El Nino: 1953, 1958, 1969, 1979, 1982, 1991, 1997, 2002, 2006, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2019, 2023 -NAO July, El Nino: 1957, 1958, 1963, 1968, 1976, 1977, 1991, 2009, 2015, 2019, 2023 +AO July, El Nino: 1951, 1953, 1969, 1979, 1982, 1994, 2002, 2006, 2018 On the five signs, you only have a handful of El Ninos that are 3-4-5 match candidates. Those are bold above. 3 match group: 1953, 1957, 1979, 2018, 2019 4 match group: 1969, 1991, 2002, 2006 If you roll that nine year blend forward to winter - certainly somewhat more muted and different spatially then what I expect. The -EPO July is actually a fairly big warm signal for the following December in the Great Basin, weaker for the rest of the West to the NM/AZ border, and a weak cold signal for the SE US south of DC. That's like a +30% snowfall winter composite for me. All of those winters have fairly notorious off-season flukish snow events, which is a major feature of El Nino. You can get heavy snow in Oct-Nov and/or Mar-Apr in additional to decent snow in winter.

Under a severe thunderstorm warning for the 2nd evening a in row.

Will be less than .10 here tonight. Wagons SW.

Saw some awesome meteors tonight in obx

0z nam

Ended up with just over an inch on the day. High of 69, low of 67, lol

Unfortunately the buoy system TAO uses is being fixed right now so a lot is being missed past the dateline.

And the afternoon BOU AFD is now very pessimistic for much over the next few days in the Metro. Lots of "if"s in there.

You know the rules, have to change your location to droughtville and make a cash donation to @cyclone77

Which seems like a lot, but that is like 1 good afternoon this season.

Looks like north and eastern areas

I'm not on the beach. I have missed all those blizzards too- but I usually manage to get a moderate(6-10")event at least.

Light rain and smoky skies moved in just in time for the meteor shower.

0.13"

its August 12 and we’re making our own digital snow we are actually going crazy

Maybe if ya all weren’t dicks to the poor guy who was just trying to post current data, he wouldn’t have left thinking everyone hated him. But Fuck It, right. Ya all won a stupid battle. Congrats on making yourselves feel better.

I maintain that SVR-Considerable with Tor Possible wording would have sufficed. 65 mph EF-0 is only 5 mph over base SVR. I don't believe there was any threat beyond a QLCS spinup of what we saw, and that took the open water and maybe a boundary to make it happen.

Yes. There are numerous mesoscale boundaries at play in Maryland. Monday's setup also had additional difficulties from the AM convection laying down race tracks right over Baltimore. The TBWI and TADW picked up on those which were being overshot by Dover and Sterling radars.

The video from Hopkins Bayview and the TBWI radar was rather convincing. QLCS environment + bay/harbor boundary was a perfect setup for spin ups.