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WB 18Z EURO highlights the freezing rain, not interested.

That’s one way to phrase it.

Yeah I’ll punt this and take a torch.

Most winter weather events this year have only showed themselves in the short range.

Albany is around 55”, but areas outside of the valley there have done better

This isn’t going to cut it. I’m sorry. Not after this past week and storm

Op runs at range tho. See what HH EPS has.

Much more snow left on the ground out in Suffolk than by JFK, where grass was showing in spots. Just shoveled my car out. Pain in the butt

I’d prefer the simpler evolution of the gfs, realistically they could both be right if pulses come out.

Well, I was trying to figure out a a way to substantiate how much snow had actuall fallen in eastern pennsylvania. I figured that the Paoli, PA Red Arrow train incident in eastern pennsylvania was a good indication that there must have been some relatively decent accumulating snows in eastern pennsylvania on that day, seeing that it was nothing for trains in those days to plow through 1 to 2 feet of snow. Unfortunately, I could only find one article about it, and I don't believe that its factual at all. In fact, the more I look into the 1928 blizzard the more i'm starting to doubt anyone's account of it.

Ridge is too strong for VA south.

Hopefully it does come further South. Be nice to go out with a Bang for many. The Ohio Valley and Northeast has had plenty enough.

There isnt a sharp shortwave- vorticity ribbons are streaking eastward from the upper low out west underneath upper level jet streaks. There are differences-

can't wait for rev war to talk about march sun angle and how this event won't happen and how we're tracking a rainstorm, then he'll insult CAPE and when we tell him thats not nice he'll start saying about how we're bullies

This before FRZA. Not awesome but I’d take it

EURO a no go.

euro is practically the same run but jus les precip

Yup. There were some pretty warm days the week leading into the St. Patrick's Day storm in 2014, and that was 2 weeks later too. Yeah a lot of that fell at night but it started in the afternoon and continued into early the next day. Plus, it was below freezing the entire following day. Not to mention the event on the 1st day of spring 2018, it was cool leading into it (below normal) but not extreme, it was the 3rd week of March, and that snow all fell during the daylight hours. And of course, March 2015 (same approximate time as this upcoming potential, 1st week of the month), where it rained the night before up to the morning of the event as a front went through, then a wave that went up the front dumped 6" snow on us...again, during the daylight hours as it turned colder.

After it had .5 Qpf tomorrow over dc until 18z (still kinda does) 24 hours out, are you gonna BET ON IT?

Not sure about Albany in the HV but I feel like parts of the Catskills have done great this year. Esp north western Catskills. I skied Plattekill in Roxbury for the first time this year (love it btw) and have been paying attention to their ski reports and totals. They've gotten hit hard. A number of systems have been driven SSE through there and skirted parts of SNE and CNE moreso than a traditional clipper track.

Those off runs man ..yikes

Maybe interesting, maybe not interesting, but I love visualizing data. And I'm dabbling in some GIS too. Been monitoring a section of beach that's seen erosion for years now, yet there's been no effort to restore anything. No more Christmas tree drop offs or even simple snow fence to catch any sand. I've even offered to bring my own posts and fencing. Anyway here's a 2 month elevation change. Note the scarping on the dune front, and the added elevation in front. The red blotches on the far right are noise from light reflecting off the water. In total (and excluding the outliers) 1400 cu. yds of sand lost in a 4 acre plot of beach

So after last weekend we gonna bet against the gfs?

There is no 12z eps map in this thread.

Gfs has the event at 111 hours, euro still has precip in the midwesr at that period. Theyre completely different at H5