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Looks like rotation may be tightening a little bit too?

Seminole Indians didn’t even stay there year round.

Don't believe everything you read over in the main El Niño thread.

Tornado warning for Lee Center, IL, it is north of I-80 and north of Princeton

Awesome! Not sure if this warranted a PDS though lol

From Reed Timmer of that tornado.

I was in the QC a few hours ago when that large area of congested cu passed overhead. They were looking very tornado-y even then.

Damn literally everything is brotating down there

Nice to see that round number two popped about 20 miles east of here. We're really on a roll here.

If we add this 1874 to 1893 raw data onto a time series consisting of raw Chester County COOP data, pooled by day for days having both a Tmin and Tmax raw data reading, we see some positive slopes. Not that we should be working with raw data to develop climate trends. Paul, observer records are here, so you can verify the raw data source https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/search/publications/forts-publication/?p=1

Also 86/72 is fucking gross Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Forky Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Spotter confirmed. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL 904 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 ILC011-073-100245- /O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0077.000000T0000Z-260810T0245Z/ Henry IL-Bureau IL- 904 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL HENRY AND WEST CENTRAL BUREAU COUNTIES... At 903 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Johnson-Sauk Trail State Park, or 8 miles north of Kewanee, moving northeast at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Sheffield, Buda, and Mineral around 910 PM CDT. This also includes Hennepin Canal State Trail, Johnson-Sauk Trail State Recreation Area, and Mautino State Fish & Wildlife Area. This includes Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 35 and 47. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 4132 8994 4136 8995 4139 8996 4144 8965 4129 8960 TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 247DEG 23KT 4136 8988 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN

That was fast. PDS warning! This is wild!

Here's the mean monthly temps in K for the ENSO regions 1+2, 3, & 3.4 up to July. Nino 1+2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4

There's multiple reasons for it. Increasing moisture and the rise of a 5th season is one. Summer is really just June and July now. I'd say August and September are now a 5th season between Summer and Fall you could call it monsoon season. I dont think we'll ever see the heat records of yore broken at least not in our lifetimes. I'm talking about 106 at Central Park in 1936 and 107 at LGA in 1966. I dont even think the 108 at EWR from July 2011 will be broken in our lifetimes. My basis for that is if the difference between number 1 and number 2 is 3 degrees or more. With Central Park the foliage is also factored in. JFKs 104 has a chance of being broken because they've hit 102 and 103 numerous times just like EWRs previous record of 105 was low hanging fruit because 105 has been hit there so many times even more than once in the same heatwave in 1993. As far as August triple digit heat goes once you get out of the oven that is Newark it's even more rare. Another factor is the shortening day and lower sun angle in August. Besides this day back in 2001 I can't remember the last time it hit 100 in August in Central Park and JFK hasn't done it since 1983 when they hit 100 both in July and August. I take EWR and LGA numbers with a huge grain of salt because they are surrounded by an unnatural environment of concrete and asphalt. I dont think the extremely long heat wave of 1953 will ever be matched either much less in late August or that 102 in early September. Not in our lifetimes anyway. Just because the average temperatures are rising doesn't mean we are going to break all time records or even monthly records. On the contrary water vapor which is a far worse greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide elevates the mins while flattening the maxes so the difference between min and max becomes compressed. This is more likely after July because the higher water temperature in August causes higher dew points. So the absolutely amazing triple digit records in August from years like 1918, 1948 and 1953 are probably safe as are the overall heat records from years like 1911, 1936 and 1966.

Tornado possible text on one of the warnings. Looks like both storms starting to rotate a bit

new severe thunderstorm watch for parts of northern Illinois and northwest Indiana right now. A couple of warnings out there.

2024 was too weak to overcome the nina/-PDO base state. my gut feeling is warm too, but not in the way 2024 was, when we had almost a nina-like pacific pattern. that winter wasn't that wet in the MA/SE either.

Paul, it's raw data. Here is the written record for June 1888, matches the csv 100% .

Sure, but ask yourself which season was better suited for that to actually occur than this one?

NAO and WPO were much more favorable....I feel like the WPO helped to limit major precipitation events on the east coast last year.

Relaxing at a restaurant or bar along the water on a summer evening… there’s nothing better.

90 today at CEF bringing the total up to 20 for the season. At this point I'd make the O-U 24 1/2 for the final total.