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Seeing TN all snow on the radar should be a positive- models have mix for a lot of areas that are still snow

Does someone have a qpf map for the GFS and UKMET they can share? Thanks. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

The HRRR is pretty impressive for the next 36 hrs so there's still a chance we get close to double digits. The dry air robbed us some last night, but still picked up 2" here in far NW AR. This won't be a top 10 snow but will be a very nice one when all is said and done. Probably get us to our seasonal average here.

The steady precip. should be done by midnight if not sooner, so theoretically there's plenty of time to clear snow and treat roads to open schools and businesses Monday morning. But just based on the hype I expect most things to be closed on Monday.

Was also clear for the last 3-4 days that the I-90 corridor including Boston would get nailed by this storm. Maybe jump on the Acela there and get a hotel for a couple nights.

First 24 hr of href

Every winter storm the past 3 or 4 years has busted on tne dry side.

Wha about the temperature profiles? Nashville was colder than modeled earlier. Not sure if it still is. But I think the snow was hanging a little longer than Mets down there thought .

I’m not sure if these Pivotal 10-1 maps count sleet as snow, if not and there’s 2” more sleet, 5-6” snow would end up as 7-8” accumulation. Even with the NAM that seems to be what we’re looking at. But I agree, definitely can’t discount it.

I know I'll be mixing. I just hope it doesn't last very long.

I'd get so pissed as a kid. never understood how it could be 15 then 6 hours later 40 and rain. some things never change

Which is roughly half the storm ,right?

Wow look at the green to almost western MD besides the bay and Delaware. If that flash freezes, all my.

Couldn't agree more on your thoughts regarding Mt Holly. Even now, less than 18 hrs before start time they're still going with 8-12 all the way down through Oceann county.

Congrats!!

12z gfs hammers mass

Does that mean it's juiced up or more south with the zr line, or a combo of both?

15z RAP hot off the press, still holding off the sleet for the most part and staying the course. Hey, at least all the crappy models still have our back bahahahaha. I'm riding with the RAP/FV3 combo; what could go wrong!?

6 am tomorrow.

I’ll fix the title when I get back to my laptop

The 3KM NAM does bear some similarities to the RAP as far as precip but the RAP seems to not even see the wedge. At least the 3km NAM has the wedge back well south and west of ATL 10-15Z tomorrow. The scary thing for the ATL metro is how far back the NAM has wanted to push the wedge as far as lateness into Sunday, if that verifies and IF significant ZR happens there will be way less time or chance to melt things off before winds pick up. But the fact now it has things so mild til 10Z is concerning on the bust end. I am not confident at all in any forecast I have out, even NYC it may be mainly sleet after 20Z tomorrow

Next Sunday situation looks a little more coherent on the Goofus, still a viable option

this is a good model short term, don't pay no mind to nam

Unmet would be a big disruptive event, 6-10 of snow tons of sleet then frz.

1.3 liquid, I'd guess about 50/50 snow vs sleet so that should be about 6-9 inches of snow.