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Must be factorin g in the weekend chill. Think the period 10/19 - 10/26 hover s above normal overall, likely for higher mins with the onshore onslaught.

Definite dont see the PDO flipping anytime soon. Yellow Sea and especially Sea of Japan into the Western Pac should be cooling not warming.These more polar currents are getting overwhelmed by the warm currents,it should be getting mixed out but its really not

26 for me. Now we just wait to see how many snowstorms get pulled from us 24 hours out.

My point and click after today has below normal high temps through Thursday, minus Tuesday which is 1 degree above normal.

I never stopped.

Ha ha, You don't make that move to go to warmer weather, That is a great area for winter weather, And i'm contemplating moving further north when i retire.

There’s just something so beautiful about watching the seasonal change. Not to wax poetic, but it’s such a wonderful reminder of the ephemeral nature of life. We only get so many of these. Enjoy them all.

Highs: EWR: 84 (1958) NYC: 87 (1897) LGA: 82 (1958) JFK: 79 (2008) Lows: EWR: 31 (1944) NYC: 34 (1876) LGA: 39 (2009) LGA: 39 (2006) Historical: 1781: A storm of "unknown character" struck Virginia. The Earl of Cornwallis, at Yorktown, was trapped by the French Fleet and the Patriot Army, under the command of George Washington. The Earl decided to flee to the north to Gloucester Point under the cover of darkness. A "furious storm" doomed the plan to failure, as seas ran high and every boat was "swamped". He sent forward his flag of truce and surrendered, thus ending the battle (Chapman). (Ref. Storm of 1781) 1880: Very early blizzard in Dakotas ends and precedes severe winter. Earliest blizzard in Minnesota. Struck western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas especially hard. Over a foot of snow in western counties. Railroads were blocked. Damage done to Great Lakes shipping. Huge drifts exceeding 20 ft formed in the Canby area lasted until the next spring when flooding occurred across the Minnesota River Valley. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1913 - The temperature in Downtown San Francisco soared to 101 degrees to equal their record for October. (The Weather Channel) 1937 - An unlikely winter-like storm produced as much as ten inches of snow in Minnesota and Iowa. 1944: The 1944 Cuba – Florida hurricane, also known as the Pinar del Rio Hurricane, struck western Cuba on this day as a Category 4. This storm killed an estimated 300 people in Cuba and nine in Florida. This hurricane is currently the 7th costliest U.S. Atlantic hurricane, with an estimated $46.9 billion (2015 USD) in damages. 1962: Severe weather across northwestern Oklahoma resulted in a 5-inch hailstone collected in Woodward County. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 1987 - Ten cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Augusta GA marked their third straight morning of record cold. A cold front brought showers and thunderstorms to parts of the central U.S. Lightning struck a bull and six cows under a tree near Battiest OK. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Late afternoon thunderstorms produced severe weather in southwestern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. One thunderstorm spawned a tornado north of Nappanee IN which caused half a million dollars damage. Six cities in California reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 100 degrees at Red Bluff CA was the latest such reading of record for so late in the autumn season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988: An F2 tornado carved a 6 mile long, east-northeast path through a mostly rural area of north-central Indiana. The extremely slow-moving tornado touched down 1.5 miles north of Nappanee, just 300 yards north of a high school, and shortly after that moved through a subdivision where 11 homes sustained damage. 1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the foothills of Colorado. Up to three inches was reported around Denver. Echo Lake was buried under nineteen inches of snow. Temperatures again warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the eastern and south central U.S. Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Atlantic City NJ with a reading of 84 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1998: One of the costliest hail storms to ever hit metro Denver caused an estimated $87.8 million dollars in damage to homes, buildings and vehicles. The hailstorm, rare for so late in the season began over portions of Arvada, Wheat Ridge and northeast Denver where mostly pea sized hail accumulated up to a depth of 6 inches near I-70. Snowplows had to be called out to clear several streets and many accidents were reported. The storm intensified as it moved to the east into the Denver and Aurora areas. Hail up to two inches in diameter pelted the Denver metro area and one inch diameter hail in northern Aurora. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 1990: Temperature reached 90 °F for 136th day in Tampa, FL. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1992: 60+ middle school football players were on the Dueitt Middle School football field (Spring, TX) when lightning hit during a light drizzle. 34 students/coach taken to a hospital for observation/treatment, fortunately; no one was killed. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1999: Hurricane Irene moved across the Florida Keys producing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and high waves. A gust 102 mph was reported in Big Pine Key. 2007: A blinding sandstorm in the high desert north of Los Angeles wreaks havoc with local traffic causing a highway pileup involving dozens of vehicles. Two people die, and 16 are injured as a result of the storm, which reportedly raised dust to 1000 foot high. 2015: A well-defined waterspout was visible from Marquette, Michigan.

This. Some of my family was asking if I wanted to go south for Christmas when I usually host up here. I politely declined and told my wife separately HELL no. I’ve had plenty of snowless winters in the south and the CT river valley and now that we have a place in SLK you think I’m going to give this up for a 70° Christmas? Absolutely not.

Trip scheduled up the county for 2/1-2/5.

67 / 65 clouds holding , front pushing to CPA. Storms later - chill this weekend and onshore cut off ULL barrage 10/19 - 10/26, but overall warmer than normal. Ridge goes north and flow comes around cut off low off the Southeast coast pushes a week of easterly flow into the area.

We know, You already have started.

Severe Thunderstorm warnings overlaying the Freeze Watch simultaneously.

Can we annex the area between Marco and Clearwater?

Probably because of the clearing. Sunny here now. Waiting on my fall wedge.

I'm surprised more people aren't mentioning the possible nor easter next week. seems like modeling is falling into line with at least he possibility of a storm.

Looks like everything got nudged SW a tad in the 1630z OTLK from SPC

Lots of negative Nellie’s…you know the crew.

Northern Maine may have a big year this year…lots of moisture could make things very nice.

Forecast the High…we know the rest.

Then there's the MECS S+ part, at least for the Mid-Atlantic. Feb 1983 and Jan 2016. So the 4 very strong El Ninos since 1950, its 50-50 for that. And for epic storms in general, the Jan 1998 "super" ZR storm NNE and srn Quebec! Also, for a more localized bonus S+ events (the one @CoastalWx could not BELIEVE occurred, esp. since he got stiffed in GHG/Brockton), was the Dec 23, 1997 BOS Herald front page "THEY BLEW IT!" w/ mug shorts of the local BOS OCMs. At most 4-8" fcst for SNE w/ a chance of mix, and it ended up 12-24" of super wet glop. The one when Ayer MA got SNOINCR 8 and it was then realized how important the DGZ temps/saturate was (watershed weenie fcst moment for @CoastalWx) That explained the MONSTA flakes and how a kind MEH sfc low could do such "KRAZEE" snowfall rates! So really from the above and what @GaWxnoted, "KEWL TYMES" ahead for the E Coast!

Seems like a pretty unorganized line in NYS, and I don’t see us here EOR clearing any; nothing more than gusty/showery front passage?

Sun is out here

may be more of a DELMARVA/NC event this go around

According to the drought monitor, most of the area is out of the official drought. It's abnormally dry still but not significant across the region. As @CAPE sort of implied, this time of year (and basically til April), soil moisture doesn't really have much of an impact on the flora of the area since it is dormant anyhow. And the low sun angle and cool temps means any soil moisture sort of just sits there until spring. The mistake you're making is assigning the "low reservoir" level to some sort of natural phenomenon. The only reason there are low reservoirs is that humans created them in the first place and sucked down too much water. We basically created our own problem. The trees in my yard don't give two shits about whether some DC reservoir is "lower than normal" (normal in this case isn't an actual thing since it isn't a natural process). The problem isn't too little rain, it's too much demand. Random anecdote. I am on well water at my primary residence in Calvert county. For the past 20yrs I've had a hardness of about 17gpg. This year all of a sudden my hardness has increased to 30gpg. I've had to buy a new softener with a higher capacity to deal with it. Maybe it's due to the drought, I have no idea. But if it is, it's not nature's fault, it's a side effect of humans tapping in to an underground aquifer.