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CHAT GPT SAYS: Don’t forget the NAM’s N–W bias. (Yeah, raisin toast surprises and all.) But sometimes that “bias” is signal, not noise. In tight baroclinic setups, the NAM can resolve sharper frontal slopes and focused forcing that globals smooth out. Dec 2005 is the template: globals too far SE, NAM closer to the true frontal position. Jet interaction over a steep boundary led to rapid deepening and unexpected wind intensity. Same idea here. Globals look SE of the best QG forcing. If the initial low forms closer to Delmarva and tucks under stronger 500 mb diffluence, even a 50-mile west shift changes everything — track, capture, even stall potential — all NW of current global positions.

yea but if they miss they dont count! lol

Waking up to a blizzard warning is surreal

Hoping daytime stuff sticks more than forecast Ooof that min is too close for comfort haha

NBM

Sorry for the banter, but good to see you posting. Hope you're feeling better!

Start using "Brave" for a browser and you will never go back.

I like where the norlun trough band is right now (for IMBY). Winchester. Ideally it'll shift east?

There has been some others, most just missed us or clipped us. 12/27/04 was one I believe.

Icon and rgem are going to come in snowier.

ty for all the responses. told my friend he should switch flight to today but he doesn’t want to end vacation early and he’s gaslighting me into thinking everything will be fine by 9PM Monday lol .

Yeah I’m prepared to be in the min, but thinking easterly flow should help me a bit over here.

I think we are running out of time for that big a jump, but never know. I think we are starting to see the goal posts narrow on the SLP placement. This sucker looks like a classic double barrel low with a primary low tucked due to the phasing 5H pattern. Truly a classic setup

Does anyone know if hurricane Schwartz still thinks this is basically a non-event west of i95 or did he finally cave?

It’s almost like they want you to pay to remove the ads.

12z ICON 992 low off DelMarVa

Its crazy our range 36 hours out is 8 to 24" and because the euro is being stubborn nws probably can't go with the crazy high amounts out of caution

The thread has added 100 pages in 63 hours! ….. Well Done …… as always ….

I am too. i’ll take a 10-20 mile shift of the ccb over trying to bank on the IVT band

I’m not sure the public is ready. This thing has been downplayed and it’s now on the doorstep

Thankfully they stay below the controls on the ipad.

Holy shit you too?? It drives me nuts lol.

I just refresh it and it goes away for like 2 mins

Yikes, the NE is gonna get DUMPED on Sunday into Monday!!! Meanwhile here in GA went from 82 yesterday, down to low 20's this Monday. I am starting to think this could be our last 20's until next December.