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I ended up at -5.5 on a forecasted low of 11.

I got bored yesterday afternoon and so went across the street and cleared the driveway and sidewalks off for a lady that’s 85 years old and I did the same to my driveway. I am filling it this morning. [emoji23] .

Skynet looked kind of interesting next week....OP GFS doesn't.

You do have a point there. Perceptions change quickly when you get a situation like we just had.

24 with no wind feels almost comfy atm

i am tossing the 12z groundhog, it’s a terrible model anyway

12z GEFS with a good tick south with light snow accumulations...past 3 runs.

I actually agree, Start it up. Inside 3 days and the signal appears to be across most if not all modeling. Let’s run it back. Screw the negativity from the wake county folks everyone will be happy if we get a coating. It wasn’t supposed to be able to snow in the south anymore, remember? Now we’re bickering over not getting 6” lol

No big threats on the ensembles, I'm about 2 weeks away from rooting for warmth if nothing pops up. This winter is already a B- in my opinion, cold, snowpack, major winter storm.

New thread time for upcoming threat? It’s already beginning to dominate this thread, it isn’t far off, and why not bet the streak as every other threat so far has ended up verifying?

Just an FYI I finished February 4th, 1995 Snowstorm and the 94-95 season, so the Winter Storm Archive is complete through 1994.

This winter might be a case of “it just wants to snow and be cold.

Do you use Sharppy the dot com site for your soundings or do you get them from a sit like Pivitol? .

The next chance at a major event I would think wouldn't be until the mid to late 2030's.

The 12z RGEM puts half a foot in some areas one SW VA Weds-Thursday. @Daniel Boonehas been all over this.

Mike Witcher has his own little private weatherboard that I’m a part of and some people in West Knoxville reported they had a little dusting this morning when I got up. It’s flurrying at my house now. .

4.3" highest report that came in today from cocorahs. 3WNW Kingston which lines up with highest reports around Pembroke and Marshfield.

It's very unlikely. The air mass isn't sufficiently cold. One probably won't have NNW or N winds that are optimal for the strongest cold air advection.

Fropa and arctic winds on the gfs for Ray.

Oh boy, big news...after nearly 3 years and thousands of hours, i can finally say the Winter Storm Archive is now completed through 1994. There are currently 294 storms (and counting) in the archive with snowfall maps, radar, surface/upper air maps and more. I just finished Feb 4th, 1995 and uploaded everything for the entire 94-95 season (which is not much). I made a bunch of improvements for desktop and mobile and everything should be working perfectly but if there are any problems with the links or there are errors let me know. Winter 25-26 storms are being added as they happen, about a week after the fact and there are currently 9 storms that made it into the archive as 3"+ events. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/storm-archive I have a lot plans and additions to the site coming in 2026 which include: Adding season snowfall for 94-99 Updating/redoing all the seasonal maps for 99-24 for SNE/Tri-State/CT Refreshing all historic storms maps and adding Lower Northeast (SNE+Tri-State) to all of them (2020-2026 are done) Adding all snowfall maps that didn't make the archive to snowfall maps pages. Either if they are less than 3" or only affected N MA/S NJ (94-02 is done) More historic snowstorms to be added from before 1994 back to 1800s. There's probably more but that's all i can think of right now. If you haven't been to the site in a while and want to see what is new/added you can check out the updates page where i keep a log of everything new. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/storm-archive/website-updates

Maybe I wasn’t paying attention, but was it supposed to get down to close to zero last night? I guess I was suffering from a little bit of weather overload so I have it looked at anything in a couple days. .

Most times they go with what Model Data is printing out like many do anymore. It caused them to miss by a large margin in much of the Area. Sometimes you gotta use logic and incorporate Human Input. Not downing them or the Other's as it's just the way things have become nowadays, sadly. Until Model's get (if it's really completely possible) more micro precise , if you will, without the Forecasters skilled Input it will remain the same.