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Can you post a couple maps please?

My guess for us is around 7". I think we do quite well but can see how we end up on the higher side with good banding or get relatively skunked sitting in a subsidence hole with CT getting hammered and us mixing with sleet. I think it's low likelihood here but can't be ruled out.

The 9z RAP also shifted heavy snow into C/ENY and SVT (like the HRRR/NAM) and brought mixing into the southern tier of NY. A surface low in WNY is not ideal. We still do great locally, but I don't like seeing more snow in ALB than BGM.

Hoping it makes it here but thinking it sets up just south and west

Ya this will end up crushing pike with that band that was forecast here, hopefully we get another meaty band down here

Now that's XXX rated map the wanted to see

9z Rap significantly further north at 9z compared to 6z

The 8z HRRR directs the best snow into the Catskills and ENY through the end of its run. There is still locally a few-hour burst of mod-heavy snow and probably a little more to come beyond its 18 hour range, but the northeast shift continues. That's pushing a bit of a dryslot into SNY and PA. I don't like seeing the HRRR seemingly shift towards the NAM. Can't wait to see that trend reverse. Most other guidance looks solid however.

Congrats on the Christmas miracle out east def stole NYCs storm . One more budge at game time and you steal ours too. Winter storm warnings for all upon wake up?

I saw that and the NAM Ginx posted looks good here even into RI; will have to see if that trend continues today.

FWIW 8z HRRR is even further north and east now compared to 6z

If near warning snow is making it to Boston, a chunk of what my backyard gets even will likely be sleet. I know other models are colder but we’ve seen them verify too cold in these type events. It’s clipper like but behaving like a SWFE with overrunning into cold air. Like that or not, take what you will but historically SWFE is not good for NYC. It’s not your typical SWFE for sure but these overrunning deals so often pull the rug out by trending north at the end. We’re at the point where we just have to see what happens. Hopefully we get good precip that doesn’t shoot over way NE and we’re not waiting for hours in the city as it warms in the mid levels.

BOX still not biting east of the river, showing 2-5 most places.

Just given the cold dense dry air in place I would give a lot more credence to the GFS/RGEM than the northern models.

ICON looks slightly better than 0z. GFS and RRFS look very similar to their previous runs. All solid for most of the area! Gotta watch the radar, obs, and HRRR today to see if the northeast shift is real or not.

it went south a little

GFS also held its ground

The 6z HRRR and esp NAM should concern snow lovers from NYC south and west. The surface and mid-level low centers continue to tick further northeast. That's getting heavy snow into SVT now, and even BOS on the NAM. That's a yellow caution flag at minimum. On the other hand, the 6z RGEM held steady or even ticked a hair south and wetter locally.

6z NAM IJD

Sure would like to see a 25-50 mile slide south

Thats not a warm look as we get into the the end of the first week of Jan

6z NAM & Latest HRRR

23 in the Bronx. About 12 hours 'til showtime.