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Yes it is very unusual for them. My friend on Long Island has always told me about 2 foot storms that melt in 5 days. That sounds insane to me. That would be on the ground all winter. So for them to sustain a solid pack from a 6-14" storm for weeks is very impressive for them.

We’ll see how much today’s torch leaves us by tomorrow.

What a crap solution.

Should have a thread for this .

Another vote from the WRF-ARW2 as well, fwiw:

I was gung-ho on tomorrow 10 days ago. Mostly about there being a storm and not necessarily snow. I'm a tad less enthused today. My issue is that we are going to need rates...like at least moderate if not heavy to get things going. Otherwise we're looking at rain followed by essentially white rain. I've seen this scenario play out a lot over the years. We can do this but we better get into good precip...

Disagree. This winter's snowpack has been far above climo in SE MI and if the pattern was shifted a bit west that could've easily been Chicago. Of course nothing compares to the record winter of 2013-14, just 12 years ago (the planet was warming then as well). Always all about the pattern. If anything Chicago's problem this winter was too much CAD. As for next winter, certainly not worried about that yet lol. With 2 colder than normal winters in a row and an el nino on deck, I wouldn't bet against a milder winter, but we've learned time and time again in recent years that enso is just one piece of the puzzle. Usually weak/mod ninos are workable. The only true nightmare scenario is if we are in mid-Fall and a strong nino is imminent.

Headed to Jacksonville in the morning to visit,not sure ill make it there in time for severe.Wife has to do something in the morning before we can leave Next week if we can get moisture we could possibly get some strong storms towards the end of the work week,much depends on where the subtropical ridge is at

This was much better to me because that storm was a huge disaster back in the day. That was a complete whiff for NW Wake. This storm made up for it late with the banding were I was. .

Stein on both events.

Snow-cover should aid in surface temps. Not by much but anything will help.

Is there a way to infer/determine ratios from soundings? Trying to “self” teach reading these info-laden graphs gotta imagine itll be pretty pasty stuff if it does snow

Id take day after day after day of tundra rather than 95/75. I leave Newport in the heat of the summer for milder weather in northern Spain, and Newport is about as mild as it gets.

Would likely start as a light rain sometime during the mid afternoon and transition to a steady snow during the evening hours.

Definitely a bit intriguing overnight and some of the 12z guidance so far...certainly enough to put the south coast in game for a few inches potentially

Many folk here aren't winter people...they only tolerate winter because of the potential for snow...outside of that they'd prefer it to be 95/75...

Gefs further south

My baby loves the winter

Hope so. Just want that memorable one.

Woke up to a dusting this morning. Wasn't expecting it. Couldn't stop dog from finding his new delicacy... Frozen rabbit pellets lol

What’s the timing on this?

I think with the SSW warming, something's gonna happen in late Feb, early March.

We need to go out with a bang. We're off from raining at new job. Gotta get that big one!

Definitely do! Fontana is the lowest i have seen in a long time

For me, it looks like a potentially big cold shot coming at some point during March. That isn't really earth shattering news, but just trying to time it is going to be the tough part. The CFSv2 has it at 6z and the Euro Weeklies mean has March being progressively colder. You all know your own climatology. Folks in NE TN and the Plateau can score well into early April. March snow is not an anomaly IMBY, though it has been during La Nina. I am really excited that maybe this summer won't be ridiculously hot w/ the onset of El Nino and same for fall. Jury is out on next winter. If the El Nino is moderate or strong, I will roll w/ a torch for DFJ. If it is weak, I will roll with December warm, and January and February seasonal but snow chances. The strength of the El Nino is crucial. Sometimes lately, even a weak El Nino is torchy here.