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Models showing me flipping around 18z, so sometime before that would be great. Thanks!

Via RadarScope, doesnt seem to be too much virga. Snow reaching the ground all through Virginia under some pretty light returns. We can't afford to lose hours to virga while we watch that mix line race N. Could be a good sign. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

I can't argue with this thinking. 11.6 is a lot for CPK with the mixing potential and the way they report.

Things really don't want to beef up the qpf in Maine......we're just stuck. Oh well.

I've not risen above 28 here on Meigs/Roane line area today which is what I'm currently sitting at, I am getting accretion on elevated objects, including trees. For pavement it's interesting I have 2 concrete patios one south facing get sun every day in winter, and the other north facing only gets indirect sun in winter. The south facing is just wet and the north facing is a sheet of ice. So from that I would bet the roads may be similar areas that are shaded by ridges and thick forested areas those areas where snow normally lingers will be icy or at least quicker to get icy compared to other areas. I have about a .10 to .15 of an inch of accretion though on elevated objects. Holly bushes are sagging under the weight already as their leaves are bearing more weight than trees with leaves. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

?? I don't like hearing you say 'meh'

MU slashes Lanco to 6-12". Okay...heading out on Duval Street. Should be an interesting evening here and back home.

Wow, 70 pounds, that's incredible! Keep it up man, I bet you'll knock those next 20 off this year and you can make your pizza dreams come true. And I seriously ordered a supreme for dinner tonight from a local pizza place instead of trying to down any hospital food haha.

HRRR is saying "It gone rain...and freeze....a lot."

That seems a touch high. I think 10-16 is far more reasonable for the LV. I'd be surprised but not shocked if LV was held to below double digits. Ratio is going to be high throughout until there is warmer air aloft causes mixing so unless there is virga or a dry air slot for an extended time I think it's rash to aggressively slash totals.

Noticing that here as well. We’re getting moderate to heavy sleet but my dew has actually ticked down.

The QPF has consistently been at least 1 inch for sure. Also, seems like it has been increasing for days.

The wedge keeps wedging. Honestly that’s it. We need to keep it chilly for a few thousand ft.

AK=Alaska AR=Arkansas

Noticing

Wouldn't be the first time. Won't be the last time. Re below: Yeah some models have a little back side. Chatty won't get anything that set-up, but it could be a nice little all-snow dessert at the end for points north and east.

Personal final prediction (sleet ruins the fun points south of Poconos) - Mt Pocono - 12-16” all snow, Allentown -8-12” front end and then sleet, Philly - 6-9” front end and then sleet, South NJ/DE 3-6” front end and then mix to rain. If the coastal can become primary faster than forecast, then perhaps Philly and north are all 12-16”

What’s the key for us to stay mostly sleet?

I’m in too lol

Is it too soon to say the GFS seems to be the closes to being right?

Cold air is still creeping in (all areas in the south) .

Sleeting. Stupid autocorrect. RAH is only calling for a quarter to a half inch of freezing rain compared to the half inch plus WRAL is calling.

Horst just posted and said he'd have more to say this evening, but he's going 8-12" in Lanco with 10-16" (easily) north of the pike.

I have been on keto for a year and cant eat pizza. Although I lost 70 pounds on it. Another 20 and I am going to fuck up an entire Ledo's supreme in 10 minutes.

15° here. The dewpoint is -6°! Todays min/max was 10/18. I was tempted to start a separate obs thread for tomorrow, but I figured one of the kids would want to do that. They like that. It's like when we let them put the envelope in the collection plate at church.