All Activity

thrilling stuff

Its a total long shot but with 2 models showing snow for us, I can't jump off the bus yet.

CMC next Monday is a January 25th light version Ukie same ^^^ Euro Ai in the Carolina's and Virginia GFS sucks at everything it does

Euro AI is way south. Not sure if its still to warm for snow and ice? Or is it just rain

Yeah it’s been suppressed for many runs now

Yeah. Definitely drier than other models.

Robots are still ranging from clean whiff with EURO to a scrape with GFS

Euro AI is due east of NC too. Way south.

Primary seems to hang on too long to feel any comfort. Haven't really looked at it yet.

Euro skynet is a whiff on the 16th. Hasn’t liked this threat for several cycles.

Euro now has that band on south coast but paltry outside of that.

Those things are really, really hard to predict, aren't they?

Here is an interesting fact that I just posted at https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/02/09/dc-weather-live-updates-not-as-cold-forecast On January 22-23, 2016, Dulles Airport received 29.3 inches of snow and ice, and the snow/ice depth there was 28 inches as of noon on January 24th. On February 4, 2016 -- 11 days later -- that depth was zero. On January 25, 2026, Dulles Airport received 7.8 inches of snow and ice, and the snow/ice depth there was 8 inches as of noon on January 26th. On February 8, 2016 -- 13 days later -- that depth was six inches.

1-2” and call it a day. Don’t really see more than that unless there’s an enhanced area like Reggie/GFS kind of show further south.

I was about to say...as good as it has been, I'm sure eventually there will be a pattern/setup it might struggle with! I mean that solution there looks like it's copying something suppressive from 10 days ago, lol

I hope it trends warmer. I don’t see snow on the table with this one, and I’m more than fine missing out on ice. Just give me the beneficial rain and let it wash the salt off the road. I still have a sleet pack from 2 weeks ago that refuses to melt.

I get ya. Missing the blizzard kinda hurt. Now...from an unselfish, greater good standpoint, given how things had just gotten paralyzed by the glacier, perhaps it was better we didn't get that on top of it. Make no mistake I wanted it ALL, but I can kinda see the grace in that outcome too.

it seems lost---maybe its "learning" this pattern

Yeah that doesn't look right...I mean it's the only OP showing suppression. I'm not even sure it's ensemble members are gonna do that. But eh, what do I know?

Yep. Mentioned that earlier.

I’m talking after that storm.

Except the glacier that snarled the cities for a week? (I mean maybe DC was better but it sure had the effect of a foot of snow here!). I don't get the nothing to show for it part of this...no we don't have as MUCH as we could've had, but this is far from nothing. And by Nina standards even more so.

I’m not sure what’s up with the GFS, looks like a robust SW and just falls apart to basically nothing on approach

Euro AI is so far south--we dont even get precip

When you have Detroit and Buffalo in the mid 30s, we know we are in real trouble down here. Again, interior paste-bomb upside doesn't change.