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Agree, and in our favor for more snow/sleet.

Well, we do know the 500mb evolution that we see today, won’t be 100% correct, so we know that. What those changes entail, that’s what we dont know.

shhhhh

Did AI get you? Sorry man, this storms for you though!

Only difference is the parent high is much stronger. So more snow and sleet in NC (Think 20 degrees vs 30 degrees). It would move that ZR swath to central GA - midlands of SC.

I'd be fine with that! A repeat of last winter! Most snow I've seen in life in a single storm!

Eh not much to doom on yet. I’d be the first to point it out but so far we’re good.

Not really a big bomb setup so we don’t have a blazing 850mb jet. Maybe 10kt or so.

Fun post, thank you! .

IOW, we just don't know?

They do a remarkable job of working the roads from jc to beech/sugar. To my friends that dont ski they are shocked we are able to go during or just after a good snow and I have to explain they throw alot of resources at it to keep these places open. That being said, I cant imagine making the trip for this one and with the cold that follows. I think I will try and give it 72 hrs after the storm clears. I bet the slopes will be epic.

Change your screen name to Sugarloaf1996

This is fluid…it’s morphing/it’s trending. The storm hasn’t even formed yet, and the confluence isn’t here yet either, there will be changes. That’s all you can say at this moment. Also These elements are not being handled perfectly at this juncture either.

18.1"

Verification of Sunday Night-Early Monday Snowfall Decent But Flawed Forecast Effort Here are the verified region wide snowfall amounts for the storm that concluded on Monday morning versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call map issued on Saturday. There were three primary issues with the forecast map. 1) 4-7" would have been a more appropriate range as opposed to the 3-6" range that was selected. 2) This 4-7" range should have encompassed the entire 2-4" area over Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, out to about the mid cape. This is because the system became slightly more intense and tracked a bit further east than implied, which resulted in greater dynamics and more snowfall over this area. 3) Finally, the Western cut off should have been slightly more abrupt, thus the 1-3" should have extended back near the Connecticut River. FINAL GRADE: B-

I'm just so unused to forecasts like this. This is rather mind-blowing:

Verification of Sunday Night-Early Monday Snowfall Decent But Flawed Forecast Effort Here are the verified region wide snowfall amounts for the storm that concluded on Monday morning versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call map issued on Saturday. There were three primary issues with the forecast map. 1) 4-7" would have been a more appropriate range as opposed to the 3-6" range that was selected. 2) This 4-7" range should have encompassed the entire 2-4" area over Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, out to about the mid cape. This is because the system became slightly more intense and tracked a bit further east than implied, which resulted in greater dynamics and more snowfall over this area. 3) Finally, the Western cut off should have been slightly more abrupt, thus the 1-3" should have extended back near the Connecticut River. FINAL GRADE: B-

Winter Storm Event – Products | North Carolina State Climate Office

This storm potential reminds me alot of the Blizzard of 1996. Very cold with that storm. I was skiing at Sugarloaf Maine and it was well below zero during the daytime before the storm came up the coast. No snow fell in Northern New England. My parents house had 25" of snow in Northern Queens NYC with huge drifts. Feather light fluffy snow.

Confluence is always a PITA to forecast but I think right now, I would favor a track more north. As modeled, the bulk of the confluence being more north I think favors potential for additional northern pushes. But we also have room to continue building the heights northeast of this. The degree and intensity of CAD into the mid-Atlantic may also play a big factor

Of course. I also remember the beautiful clown maps from the NOGAPS

I agree, I think we are approaching the ceiling for how far north it can come, being in the bullseye would take significant changes. The changes in the handling of the phasing with the southern stream shortwave last night were what we wanted to see though, and as long as that continues, and we see some relaxation in the confluence at least we won't be totally shut out.

It’s 12 right now; touched 8 this morning at dawn.

That's a prime setup for us to win big time.