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It's a very fickle outcome to be sure, and all depends on how things interact, etc. But honestly, I think too many here are overly invested in a big dog HECS kind of event, or they figure all we'll end up doing out this way is smoke cirrus. Right now, I'm looking to see if we can get some kind of minor-moderate level snowfall out of it, with some slight hope of potentially a lot more. I think that may be doable and more realistic at this point. And really, if (for example) we get about 4-6" in the metro areas and all along I-95, I really don't think I'd care too much if some places southeast of us get 2 feet or whatever. Would be different if we get zip or barely a coating of course, but you get the idea.

“Dad I gotta shit”

Dont believe it. We could see a maxima instead.

Yes, I'm aware that it's time lagged. Nevertheless, its 18z data was probably reflecting the 12z suite or perhaps slightly later. At this timeframe, the details don't matter too much. I just wanted to illustrate that there are alternatives to a clean miss. I suspect that a solution that grazes the coast might currently be the most likely scenario. That would allow for a light snowfall from Philadelphia to NYC and moderate maybe larger amounts across parts of eastern Long Island into southeastern New England. The Cape could do quite well. Having said that, it's not uncommon for model tracks to vary by 50 to sometimes 150 miles over a four-day lead time. I suspect that by late tomorrow or Thursday, we should start to be able to pin down the details with some degree of confidence.

I’ve said it a million times, but speak it into existence like Oprah says. “You get a foot and you get a foot everyone gets a snowstorm!”

We are all hoping to see this picture this weekend.

Is that why you're so blue these past few years?

If the Euro AI comes in wetter, we could be really ont something.

Can I ask a question? What prevents this exactly from coming up the coast? That is back to back runs it just seems to slam into a brick wall and then is kicked out to sea. What prevents it? and can what is preventing it still be fixed up in time as we are about 100hrs out and time is running out. Thanks.

This is how model-hour goes down at my house.

We just cant know at this point. I doubt we will have reasonable agreement among guidance until Thursday.

The thought of it stings. But once it’s 50’s with thorms and the salt and slop has washed away not so much.

It does make me feel better that the gfs has a slight clue since the AI GFS looks good to

Watch what you wish for!

and the kicker hasn't even been properly sampled that energy is still out in the pacific and the energy that will generate the trough in the southeast is still way up in Canada not properly sampled yet - so the storm right now is modeled to be right on our doorstep so expect changes as we get closer

Cue the Tom Petty! .

Of course I want the last 2 runs verbatim lol but it seems so unlikely.... Our land is on the east side of smith mtn at the base and our temporary home is at the base on the west side. I've wondered since we moved here what a true noreaster with CCB would look like on both sides. Smith is the first big rise in the western piedmont. About 1,200 vertical. That has to have some orograpic influence with strong E/NE flow. Sure likes to wring out drizzle during April easterlies lol

Bunch of nova drama queens in here lol 0z models tonight are where the real deal is

I approve the trend.

@BornAgain13 - I was about to post the same thing! The juice in that looks much better with high rates! If we could get near an inch board wide with 15-1 rates - now we talking!

Fairfax Co closed. And thur/fri are teacher work days so kids get a week off

I'm giving the euro to either help us out or the gfs to cave by like 12z tomm. I said 0z tonight, but i'm going to give those features a chance to come into a better obs network.

Too bad it has no support at this time

21.5 in Cape Neddick, close enough to 2 feet. Hope the next one is bigger, build a nice pack.

So out of curiosity, what is the difference between a model OP and its ensembles? Does the OP run with more resolution/compute, do the ensemble parameters all vary around a distribution from the OP run?