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You're taking weenie ratings way too seriously...

That makes more sense. JB probably did that to make all the models more weenie like lol

First of all, Aldie was being tongue in cheek, hence the . If no one can see that and doesn't know Aldie's post, you should stop commenting. Obviously, he was baiting me for a response, so I did just that. Did everybody just join yesterday?

Tt climo is 1980-2010 Wb climo is 1991-2020 Ninja'd by @baltosquid

CFSR 1981-2010 climatology vs ECMWF ERA-5 1991-2020

So the +TNH looks to have a slight SE Ridge there in that graphic. And lower heights in central and SE Canada, instead of the lower heights over the east in the +PNA. Am I understanding it correctly?

And posts canceling winter

Those are 2m temps are generally a lot less accurate than the 850s for whatever reason. Also, those 4 degree an temps are not scorching in the MA.

Oh, so models flip flop is your only scientific explanation and you weenie me and everyone else you don't agree with? You offer nothing dude...nothing

+TNH is often +PNA, but not always.....has the PV near Hudson Bay.

One month of winter in the books. Above 1/3 of my normal snowfall for the season is pretty impressive. 13.6" so far. Normal is around 35" or so. Looking forward to the 'warm up'; such as it may be, in the latter part of January.

ok there's definitely a discrepancy between WB and TT and the Euro site. Something might be wrong with WB (or vice versa)?

We’ve seen numerous times how temp forecasts 2 weeks out flip flop as they get closer. Reminder that mid December showed a Boxing Day torch until the models flipped less than a week out. Also if you’re taking weenie ratings this personally then that’s a you problem.

Nyet.

Jenkins, explain what is inaccurate about this post that justifies a weenie? Huh. Come on smart azz....explain.

Vividly remember driving on the southern state parkway in 60 degree weather while the traffic billboards said “winter storm warning avoid travel” warmups don’t scare me.

February 1996 the last week of the month hovered in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the better part of a week, averaging 56.5 degree highs. 6 weeks later we had a 4-12 inch snowstorm. There's too much variability around here to take much to the bank more than two weeks out, ever.

Is +TNH the same thing as +PNA?

Temps

Hey, No Fangs or push back here …couldn’t agree more. I’ll call a turf and turd when I think it. At 12.5” on the season to date, average is about 50” here(give or take a couple in either direction), as of now normal snowfall is easily attainable with the large amount of time/vast majority of the season still left(and peak snow climo still in front of us). But if we go into the end of January, and I’m not above where I am now by a good 12-15” inches, normal season snowfall is toast. Agreed.

lol, this looks more like an el nino or a +PDO than a typical -ENSO/-PDO.

Looks like I finished in 17th place, not a bad showing for this years contest. Looking forward to 2026

Back to overcast...some lazy flurries floating around. 27F

IDK...I think the +TNH regime is clear as day. I agree the details need to be worked out, but I don't think there is much ambiguity concerning the larger scale pattern.