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The RGEM is usually too dry in these big storm scenarios, same with most of the globals. They don't generally pick up on the dynamics and banding as well as the short range, hi-res models.

WB 18Z ICON ticked west.

nice band Berks to Northern NJ

Yep…I still have a solid 4” otg going into this storm‼️

You’re looking at the jet stream and pieces of energy traveling a long it in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

Well I may have to eat my words. Those more conservative 3k nam and hrrr gust products are probably the highest I’ve seen them in a coastal. I’d definitely be tempted to slap a BW across the entire CWA after seeing those. I haven’t looked at much wind wise beyond there…just finished clearing snow.

Other models waffling....JMA, sitn' back smiln'...

RGEM is being stubborn

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Reggie still meager relatively speaking.

Ahh, got it. Well, sorry friend. Hope you enjoy what you do get to witness.

Looks like our exact area is where the deathband in Northeastish NJ sets up

For whatever reason the RGEM has been stubborn with this storm. I think it’s suffering from convective feedback.

Aircraft recon scheduled for today for ingestion into the 00Z model suite

The 3k nam is still 2 feet in some places

And how about this? Look at the DY2 SPC tstm outlook. How often do you see such a large area of general tstms outlooked on the COLD side coastal storm, never mind a full-fledged blizzard???? I can't recall such a large general tstm area for a KU! But if anyone knows something similar, please post!

Updated with RGEM

i think that the high end #'s west of baltimore maybe dropped but it is in increase for baltimore/annapolis and points east. Bel Air was 18 or 19 earlier and is now 24

Can someone enlighten me quickly on what the darker orange spots are here ? Its stronger bands correct ?

If you're near or within ~50km to the left/west of the developing 700mb front, BL and ground temps are just not going to be an issue. 2"/hr doesn't care.

One thing to keep in mind overall though. There have been a number of coastal storms since the Bliz of 78 w/ high-low pressure differences greater, and they were *not* anything like the Bliz of 78 for total snowfall or max wind gusts, so pressure difference alone does not tell the entire story. Still though, this will be a high-end event and I would not be surprised to see gusts 80-90 mph on the coast from the Delmarva to BOS.

Good thing that model sucks

2/21 18z RGEM Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 V Snow 10:1

Yeah, then 2002-03, 2003-04, and 2004-05 soon followed, and left 00-01 in the dust. If that 3/5/2001 storm even verified halfway, 00-01 would have been remembered in that great series of winters in the first half of the 2000s (with the exception of the obvious dud in 2001-02).