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Sure after chilling adjustments made to the past for 90 consecutive years across Chester County......below is the realistic and actual temperature graph covering the last 100 years....no climate crisis here without thos post hoc alterations to the data!

FWIW, MRGL added on 1300z OTLK from SPC for just east of i95 corridor and the Delmarva for tonight .Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic... Some strong/locally severe thunderstorms could occur tonight as convection develop near/north of a near-coastal/offshore surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Storms will tend to be elevated inland, but modest buoyancy and strong unidirectional shear through the cloud-bearing layer could yield some hail and/or gusty winds.

Would love to see a feisty thunderstorm here with rainfall of an inch. It's getting dry here.

LOT’s AFD goes crazy Wednesday: An unusually powerful shortwave trough is progged to race east-southeastward into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Model guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic scale with 500 mb heights progged to be 3-4 standard deviations below normal for mid June. At the sfc, an associated low pressure that could threat all- time monthly record for June is expected to develop across Wisconsin and eventually move into lower Michigan. Unsurprisingly, the kinematic fields with such an anomalously strong system are also nearing the upper echelons of what we see this time of year in the Midwest. All of this to say that synoptically, the ingredients are coming together for a potentially dangerous outbreak of severe thunderstorms and potentially long-tracked, intense tornadoes. On the mesoscale, there are naturally greater uncertainties regarding precisely where (and to a lesser extent, if) the overlap of exceptionally strong deep and low level shear and moderately strong instability will take place. SPC`s latest SWODY2 highlights areas south of I-80 in our CWA with a rare day 2 moderate risk (level 4 of 5) for Wednesday. The potential ceiling for bad this severe weather event could get is quite high, but it is also important to note there are obviously still failure modes that could materialize on the mesoscale and prevent the reasonable worst case scenario from unfolding. The general expectation as it looks now is that a strong low level jet (increasing to 60kt+ at 850 mb by 12z Wed) will result in very strong low level theta-e advection and eventually the development of strong to severe thunderstorms late tonight. Initially development is expected over eastern IA, but as the low level jet translates eastward into IL, it should support this convection developing/moving into northern IL near/after sunrise Wednesday morning. While this convection will be elevated, strong effective shear and a reservoir of 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE should allow for elevated supercells. The greatest severe risk Wednesday morning looks to be over our western and eventually southern CWA. In addition to the threat large hail, strong shearing instability near a sharpening frontal inversion would point to at least some threat for the development of gravity wave associated convection. Should this occur, a damaging wind threat could also develop, despite little or no sfc based instability. In fact, there could even be pockets of locally significant severe wind gusts (>75 mph) near or just west/south of our CWA Wednesday morning. This convection will probably evolve into an MCS as it tracks east across northern IL and into northwest Indiana Wednesday morning. The morning convection will likely augment the warm frontal position and at least initially slow the northward progression of the composite warm front/outflow boundary, delaying destabilization north into our CWA. This seems to be the most obvious potential failure mode: morning convection retarding the northward surge of the warm front and subsequently the stronger instability, keeping the extreme wind shear profiles and strong synoptic forcing somewhat divorced from the more favorable instability. While that is one potential obvious failure mode, at this point, it seems unlikely to fully succeed in completely disrupting the otherwise exceptionally favorable synoptic set-up from resulting in a high end severe threat. Though the precise location of the most likely area(s) to see a high end event, could change some on the mesoscale as the event nears. The reason that this morning convection is unlikely to completely stunt the northward surging warm front is the extremely strong mass response expected as a result of the near record deep low pressure system. With a far less intense low last Thursday, an impressively large footprint of a cold pool left behind from an MCS that lingered well into the afternoon was able to be completely overcome in just a matter of a couple of hours late in the day. Something similar seems plausible again tomorrow afternoon where a dissipating outflow boundary from early convection could separate an extremely volatile air mass from a still sufficiently unstable air mass north of the boundary could support severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. There is variance in guidance with just how far north the effective boundary will get, but somewhere generally in the vicinity of I-80 is where a majority of the models show it reaching its peak latitude in our CWA. To the south of this boundary, the environment looks similar to what`s often seen in the cool season major tornado outbreak in the southeastern United States. Forecast hodographs are literally off the chart, with 0-1 environmental SRH >500 m^2/s^2. This sort of extreme low level shear, coupled with low LCLs and resultant strong 0-3km CAPE, fast storm motion, and favorable downstream environment is the classic type of set-up long tracked strong- violent tornadoes. It`s important stress that while the synoptic set-up is classic for a tornado outbreak, we are dealing with convection that often alters the mesoscale environment in ways that cannot be anticipated 12-24+ hours in advance. As noted above, there are certainly scenarios where an alteration of the mesoscale environment could dramatically reduce or shift the area of the greatest tornado risk. For this reason, it is important to monitor later forecasts closely. Finally, in addition to the supercell tornado threat, a fast moving line of severe thunderstorms/possible derecho may also accompany the front producing widespread, potentially significant, wind damage as well as line embedded tornadoes, some possibly strong. Not to be overlooked, precipitable water values are progged to get to near or just above 2", meaning that convection will likely be extremely efficient rain producers. The stronger convection could easily produce 2"+ of rain in just an hour or so. Given the antecedent very moist ground and generally above average streamflow, there is a threat of flash flooding Wednesday. The greatest threat may be with the first round of convection, since it will likely be a bit slower moving and offer a better chance of some training cells than the second round. When the area most at risk can be better refined, we will need a flood watch for portions of the area for Wednesday as well.

Tomorrow’s tornado probs… for posterity sake. 5% hatched imby, but 15% double hatched is just 30 minutes south.

I asked AI for a realistic and true temperature graph for Chester County PA, covering the last 100 years

I wish Thursday trends north but that’s “pie in the sky”

An appetizer, if you will.

With how measurements are done now, these totals would likely be 1.5x what was reported here: Tblizz would be reporting a 30 burger with that storm track

MU gettin' feisty... MU Weather Center The SPC has placed us under a "slight risk" for #severewx on Thurs, but I strongly disagree. The setup is basically a "rinse and repeat" of last Friday. Strong, WSW flow will cause a "downsloping" effect off the Apps, & leftover convection moves through during the morning hours.

If NJ was getting soaked on models, I feel like the fear would be it stays south and Stein has a grip, ha. There’s no spot on a map for moisture that would illicit a “this looks good right now” .

A delightful 43 here this am.

All true, and the newsies seem always focused on the worst-case scenarios. ("If it bleeds, it leads.")

Wait for it - "it always trends north"

That's a superb basketball hoop you have there!

Possible, could also go so far under you it stays dry too. But I get it, you’ll never even give it a chance of happening for the next 5 months regardless of model data.

Though it's now #3, that 1947 storm might've been Central Park's biggest, exceeded due to measurement changes. My opinion is based on snow depth. The 12/47 event pushed the pack from 2" to 26" (NYC's tallest on record), while #2 - Feb 2006 - only reached 17" and #1 - Jan 2016 - brought the depth from zero to 22". I think that Central Park records depth at noon, or why the 26th only reported 4" despite nearly all the snow fell before midnight, and that 26" pack was measured about 10 hours after accumulation had stopped. The numbers: 12/25 33 19 0 0 2" 12/26 31 25 2.36" 26.1" 4" 12/27 35 29 0.04" 0.3" 26" We'll never know for sure.

I've also noticed the "FengWu" ones seem to be more bullish than the other one. Maybe it's just not well calibrated or something?

The expanding drought has enhanced the daily high temperatures. We have been more on a La Niña background pattern through the WPAC warm pool leading to a strong ridge setting up over the East and ongoing national drought. Looks like the record El Niño will began to exert some influence next few weeks with the more standard Great Lakes trough and Western ridge for June El Niño climo. We could briefly see some 90° readings on Thursday. But the next few weeks will be a relaxation for the record heat of the first half of June. We will have to wait until we get near the start of July to see how much the El Niño and marine heatwaves in other regions like the WPAC influence the July pattern.

50 even last night. Wanted that .1 less to get into the 40s, haha

They’ve all trended north all spring . SNE will end up warm sectored in that

Slight risk introduced for today for Michiana, 5% TOR

All emotion all the time? Monday on GFS and Euro looked tailored to you. Obviously a long way out but how do you arrive at Congrats Dendrite on this guidance except for emotion?