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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Per RONI Nino 3.4, no Super El Nino was ever this low in mid-May. Might be Super per ONI and Strong, RONI. -
I think its a combination of all three. Its been lingering there for a bit, we'll see it shrink towards late June
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Had light snow and graupel again today at 1,500ft. Dew points in the low to mid-20s have been quite effective at evaporationally cooling the cores of the showers.
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0.29 spread over several hours. I'll take it! (measurement from Mesonet 2 miles away)
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Hopefully we can lay down 2 to 3" of basin coverage from that nor'easter on Thursday ...
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https://www.masslive.com/news/2026/05/drought-conditions-in-mass-worsen-after-brief-improvement.html Not great news going into the dry season. Many ponds and reservoirs still kinda low I've noticed. Except in Baldwinville and Otter River......
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Man.. can't wait for this winter to finally be over -
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Frost advisory's and freeze warnings are out for tonight. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This coming high amplitude MJO push into the PAC as we go into late month, coupled with an ERW is going to cause another massive WWB and a continued strengthening of this El Niño into June. A super El Niño is inevitable at this point and very likely a top 3 super event -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
canderson replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
F the heat! It’s why I left Texas. -
Finally ... a chart that agrees with your sentiment from earlier - nice !
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Itstrainingtime replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I've been posting a lot in the Sports threads. I've kept pretty quiet here as I realize that what I want is a lot different than most of you now that the winter crowd has left. I don't want to bring the group down by posting how great I feel every day it's cloudy, cool and damp or just cooler than normal. The older I get the more I despise the heat. It is the only reason my wife and I continue to live in PA. Otherwise we'd be living on the gulf coast of Florida. - Today
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0.3", feels like I need to build an Ark to handle so much rain.
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Yeah I know I’ve seen like 3-6” overnight without the ASOS going below 2sm -SN in deep snow growth layer orographic snows. Big arms of dendrites hooking together. Honestly the late January storm yielded like 10” overnight of mid-level fluff at like 1.5”/hr in 3/4sm visibility. Meanwhile the flip side is you get the SWFE poor snow growth needles in a 6-hr QPF dump and struggling to 1.2”/hr snowfall but at M1/4, ha.
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So is the cold pool off our coast a result of this past seasonably cold winter, of more of a stronger Labrador current? Or perhaps upwelling?
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Goes either way ... I've seen it snow 30 straight hours at 3/4-1.5sm -S and end up with 3" of cobwebs you could move with the broom. Does that a lot around the Lakes in very frigid air...etc. I've also see that analysis be 6" overnight. Heh, it would be funny if not actually more practical to have qualifiers rmks in there like "3/4-1.5sm -S meaningless mood", or "3/4-1.5sm -S Ineedsnow trigger flake size", or "3/4-1.5sm -S; 30 hr tortoise event" etc
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Just got home, .45 in the bucket! I feel like I just won MegaMillions!
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Superstorm replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
WGAL report on crop damage due to freeze.... https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1349543337094583 -
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
RedSky replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
56F and overcast not a bad day for late March oh wait -
The 3/4-1.5sm -SN is probably one of the more over-stated weather obs by all. I mean, it can be 1”/hr though too with even decent snow growth at 3/4-1sm. So sometimes hard to fault folks. I will say if any of us started seeing 1.5sm vis -SN right now we’d say it was ripping out, lol. When you haven’t seen snow in a while, a mile and a half is a steady snowfall.
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We got 1/2” last night. That’s better than nothing. Just enough to keep everything slightly green & surviving.
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