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Warm noses are always underestimated at this range. The fact that the mesos (hi res RGEM/NAM) are showing a strong mid-level warm nose all the way north of NYC is a red flag. They turn it into a sleet fest. Ignore at your own risk. Globals (GFS, ICON, CMC, UKMET, EURO) are not going to pick on it as good as the mesos. Today is the day to take them seriously. Larry Cosgrove said many years ago ‘do not ignore the meso models showing mid-level warm noses in a WAA event they are usually right’

Updated:

Euro looks better than the 0z run

Rain incoming looks heavy for a bit. 40 degrees

Nammy with the sleet into NYC idea. Remember how well it sniffs out the warm tongue at 925

If this storm actually delivers for SNE, then the ICON will deserve lots of kudos. For days the ICON was alone in seeing this, but can’t celebrate just yet.

The 6z hi res RGEM and the 6z 3K and 12K NAM runs are showing a strong mid-level warm nose all the way up into Rockland, Orange, Sussex, Passaic and Bergen, Westchester. The Ptype goes to a sleet fest. This should be taken seriously due to the fact this is a WAA event

Looks like we got head faked at 00z. 6z kind of settled back

RGEM not being amped is a big sign too. I really think it's just going to be a wall of snow that quickly drops several inches and then when rates lessen it turns to sleet/zr

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Gfs looks great. HRRR also.

If this couples with the troposphere, we have issues next month. The SPV is about to strengthen rapidly, become quite strong, consolidate and move up over the pole. We haven’t had coupling so far and we didn’t last winter, but that doesn’t mean it can’t change. Different QBO evolution this year. This is something to watch very closely

Merry Christmas to you. Yea all over the place. Bottom of trough weakens boom

Merry Christmas! As usual, will become a nowcast event.

Euro with ratios ! We got Nam'ed big time, GFS back south. Big camp splits. Who knows?

Thunder woke me up this morning in WV…

06z GFS not going for the north trend and looks reasonably similar to previous GFS runs.

Mt holly is going to bust badly if they dont start following the modelling

We could become roommates.

Well now here it comes on the 00z 12/25 EPS. Pacific jet extends, wave breaks that semi-permanent pacific block, +PNA setting up. Merry Christmas

I hope not for your sake as well.

When I’m your age i hope i don’t get up this early.

And a Merry Christmas to you!

Yeah looks like a big sleeter south of NYC. A few more nudges north (not even including the storm will probably be under modeled as to the northern extent of the sleet because this is a SWFE yet) and sleet will probably be quite prevalent in NYC. I’d cut the totals from CNJ on south in half.