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October is verifying ~10F warmer than the Canadian forecast on Sept 30 in parts of the South so far. I'd be wary of the outlooks for Dec-Mar. They still have no skill. CPC has the South warm in the 6-10 and 8-14 at high confidence - so pretty big bust.

What a sick game. I was in the ATL for it, such an incredible game and an insane amount of Ravens fans. There were at least 15,000 Ravens fans there, it was incredibly loud. At times you thought it was a Ravens home game. It was soo much fun. 7d7a878e-fe3c-4e42-ba0a-05be0a8a86cd.mp4

Duplin County NC and Newberry County SC. Fayetteville was assigned preliminary rating of EF1.

1.12" total rainfall.

I wouldn't call it impressive I'd call it horrible. The heavy rains and high winds have brought an early end to the fall foliage season here as more than half the leaves are already down here. Officially the highest wind gust was 31 mph here but it went on for many hours and did some damage. Close to 3 inches here and many branches are down and more than half the leaves on the trees have also come down so I guess that means we are officially past peak. Expecting our first freeze next weekend anyway. By the way I see Mt Pocono in the yellow with 2.80 inches (and 31 mph wind gusts) but what is that yellow marker just to the west of Jim Thorpe and Lehighton? Is that 2.81 inches in Hazleton? It's just off the western edge of the map.

I've been developing some new visualizations for froude number and other upslope components, this first NW flow event will be a good test of how close I am to having a usable tool. Excited to test against validation this weekend. Generally the products have performed well when tested against historical events, but it's difficult to have full confidence when running against only model reanalysis data. I will post the results for this weekend's event. I plan to host a website with these publically available by ski season

He is a very smart guy but what he seems to forget is that at least 90 percent of the population wants a warmer climate. That's the main reason public policy doesn't change. Music to my ears and something I've been saying for a few months now. The summer of 1983 was one of my all time favorites. The period from June to September had endless heat like we've rarely seen only matched by 1991, 1993, 2002 and 2010.

New RRFS (convection-allowing) ensembles viewer on the SPC web page

Precip is way more large-scale than convective, so that's good. Fewer places for this one to escape too- nothing really to suppress it south or lift it north. QPF for me is now 0.65". I like this trend. Still not buying the QPFs over an inch around Denver though.

Gloria 85, had a sting jet as well. The strongest winds west of the center came under sunny skys after the center had passed. .

Human population growth also has to stop growing and I think we are well on the way to do that. In a type of poetic justice exposure to fossil fuels has strongly been linked to reduced male fertility. The clincher was that this reduced fertility is now spreading to the developing world. The faster the human population stops growing the better. And the higher fossil fuel prices get the better. And the faster the climate warms the better because it means less fossil fuel use for heating. And it's also good that fossil fuel jobs are not popular anymore. I live in a fossil fuel free community there are no gas lines here at all. Rooftop solar is becoming more popular in urban areas like Brooklyn NY people are even selling their excess energy to others and not having to pay anything. My question though is how much do plastics contribute to the problem? We already know that plastic pollution is a huge problem and microplastics cause organ damage but the corrupt fossil fuel cartels are banking on plastics to replace decreased fossil fuel revenue. The good thing is plant based plastics are starting to replace them. And lab grown meat is making inroads on animal farming and animal testing is being replaced by the much more accurate and economical organs on a chip technology. Better for the climate and better in a moralistic sense.

Today's Highs: ACY: 78 New Brnswck: 75 EWR: 74 JFK:74 PHL: 74 BLM: 73 TEB: 73 ISP: 72 LGA: 72 TTN: 72 NYC: 70

I'd say hot (mild) and wet. Boone is 50/50 on good snow or terrible snow in Super Ninos. 82/83 and 15/16 were both solid, but 97/98 and 23/24 both saw 2.5 and 2.7" season total respectively. I'll be surprised if we see any consistent cool weather until late December or January, at any rate. 3 of the 4 Super Ninos have been above average December including the record setting 2015. At the end of the day, though, 4 winters isn't a very big sample size and with this Nino being so ridiculously strong you can pretty much toss all the analogs anyways. I'm putting my money on Pacific air flooding the southern half of the country but that's just me. Better chance for widespread severe outbreaks than widespread snow.

I.e January 15th-20th at the earliest, lol

Where was the second one? How strong was the one that hit Fayetteville?

2.43" here. (Herndon, VA) 3.00" for October so far.

19 confirmed tornadoes so far. 2 EF2s

Yeah…good chance for the first CAA mangled flakes this weekend here. Time to get some wood pellets.

https://x.com/nwsmemphis/status/2109809283592606168?s=46&t=nTdsbQZkQMPkUI3zGjAXJg NWS Memphis showing a 40-69% fire weather danger hazard for the mid south region .