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What is interesting is that the EURO actually has a -NPO forecast, which was not the case in 2023....there is plenty of reason to believe that this season won't be as warm as 2023 across the east.

High of 91. Down to 74 currently. Feels a lot better.

While I think that the NAO will average positive in the DJFM mean, I do not expect wall-to-wall +NAO, and there are some signs of some pretty significant blocking in the second half....even EURO has that, though it's probably overdone. Sept:

@mitchnickIf you look at the Pacific right now, then look at the CANSIPS.....the El Nino is very east-based, whereas the CANSIPS has been trending further east with each run, but is still central-based. It's also much too cool with the waters east of Japan. These inconsistencies coupled with the trend of guidance to underestimate the magnitude of ridges over the past decade plus should leave you very skeptical of the CANSIPS trending NORTHWARD with the lower heights, thus constricting the Canadian edge even further to the north.

Today's Highs: PHL: 84 New Brnswck: 83 EWR: 82 BLM: 81 JFK: 81 no intra hour highs TTN: 81 ACY: 81 ISP: 80 TEB: 80 LGA: 80 NYC: 79

No, it isn't because the EURO is more accurate in the Pacific THIS YEAR. If you want to say all seasonal guidance should be taken with a grain of salt, I agree....but CANSIPS requires a larger grain.

Actually, I was just playing the part of a weenie with JI. But, since you mentioned it, analyzing this year's Euro seasonal in light of a failed Euro seasonal forecast from 23/24 is sorta beyond absurd too.

Ji and "great assessment" isn't something you hear every day lmao

I think the AO will be negative.....EPO and NAO+ in the seasonal mean.

Great assessment.

That logic so absurd considering how poorly the CANSIPS is doing THIS YEAR in the Pacific.

We need something . Anything but this incessant boredom

lots of fires incoming once leaves fall

Thankfully a nice Steiner here today . Pretty decent day other than a sprinkle . This looks to be about 3-4 weeks of very little rain for the region . By early Octorcher things should be quite dry

It will happen well before 2:00 tomorrow

A nice evening for watching Football! Light northerly breezes filtering in dryer air has arrived!

A disappointing 0.20" today.

Cansips did better with temps around here last winter than the warmer Euro. So we toss.

Central Ohio has 9" more rainfall in 31 days, than at this time last year

I remember that too ….that was probably the most disappointing part of the winter since we were waiting the whole winter for February. . Of course, if the model showed the opposite, it would’ve verified.

A cool Labor Day weekend has commenced. Temperatures will generally peak in the middle and upper 70s. Readings in New York City could fall into the lower 60s with widespread 50s outside the City. The cool weather will likely continue into the middle of next week. By midweek, readings could return to the lower 80s. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -16.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.627 today.