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Oy this game, lol Bills have won 11 conscuctive times coming out of a bye week...and consequently Josh Allen has never lost coming off a bye. Both teams have defensive issues...but obviously the 5-1 team is performing better. Like I said...we cooked and this season is probably a transitional/rebuilding season--we shouldn't expect too much as the new staff figures things out. EDC's seat might be warm, lol

Per @Stormchaserchuck1the lag this early is typically 30-45 days. That would imply that any colder air coming down related to this SSW if it’s going to occur would likely not occur til early to mid Dec. However, there could always be colder periods not related to this SSW coming down earlier, of course.

Its great to see the NAO, AO and PNA become favorable along with a PV split . There is a lag so maybe we can see colder air come down towards mid to late November.

Its great to see the NAO, AO and PNA become favorable along with a PV split . There is a lag so maybe we can see colder air come down towards mid to late November.

Latest OISST anomalies per cyclonicwx: RONI: hardly any net change since Oct 1 (ONI graph similar): reduce this a few tenths to estimate NOAA’s weeklies. This shows no signs of heading to +3.5 as of this time, especially if one considers that NOAA’s weeklies have been coming in a few tenths cooler Nino 1+2 non-relative: only a very slight net rise since Oct 1 Nino 3 non-relative: ~0.35C rise since Oct 1 Nino 4 non-relative very little net change since Oct 1 because recent rise followed a fall

So nice lately I’m barely thinking about skiing(though I really am!) Ive been out on the bike every other day for a couple weeks now. Trails are all running really nice around here. Done a few rides at the newtrail network out in Hancock, MA, Shaker Ridge. Super fun manmade flow with a sweet ripping single track as well. .

72-73 was decent it looks like… rest leaves something to be desired again.

Ugly, ugly stuff, @powderfreak. We did better than most but my God. Not the stake, but 23-24 was modestly better. Well, not really. Also, not sure what they were doing with the ranges on this graphic.

Probably one of the warmest first weeks of November on record from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast. This makes sense given how extreme this El Niño event has become. Many areas will have 10+ departures for the November 1st through 7th. I just posted in the main El Niño thread how these early SSWs in the past have been associated with the November pattern persisting through DJF. We saw this with the early SSW last November 2025 followed by the general 500 mb pattern repeating and amplifying through DJF. So it will be interesting to see if we are getting an early winter preview this month.

2 examples that stand out. The AI model is creating a new light purple color code out of nowhere Also its text does not understand how the color contours correspond to snowfall lol So yeah, affirms my suspicion that he just fed the canSIPS output into an AI model that is good enough to make maps (naturally weather maps probably show up a lot in the training data so it has some stuff to work with), but he asked it to generate data that does not exist and can't be derived from just the precip and temp maps alone.

BWI 23" DCA 18" IAD 20.5" RIC 6.5" SBY 3"

Speaking of JB, these are his analogs for NDJFM per yesterday’s free to all “Saturday Summary”:

How was 23-24, 72-73, and 57-58?

BWI: 9.1 DCA: 4.5 IAD: 15.2 RIC: 1.7 Tiebreaker (SBY): 0.2

I am almost certain that this is derived from JB asking an AI model to produce a snowfall output map based on the model's temperature and precip anomaly maps. AI like the one that made this map are only designed to interpret and create images, so it (and therefore this map) aren't grounded in any climatological understanding. Basically, it's AI slop wishcasting, and if you ask the same model to make the exact same map it will be different every time.

This is only the 4th November with a major SSW event. So our sample size is very small. But all 3 previous events were associated with the general November 500mb North American pattern persisting and gaining amplitude through DJF. This was the case in 2025-2026, 1968-1969, and 1952-1953. Should this pattern repeat again in 2026-2027, then this very warm November El Niño pattern will become more amplified during DJF. It would be interesting to find the specific mechanism associated with the early SSW which lead to the November pattern persisting and amplifying through the entire winter in those years. Since it’s very rare for the November pattern to persist through DJF most years. A few seasonal forecasts last year basically repeated the November 2025 500mb pattern for DJF and it worked out for them. 19 November 1952 28 November 1968 28 November 2025

Can’t control it, if it’s bad hopefully it’s dry and mild.

Iow, we'd have to find something else to argue about?....That shouldn't be hard! Lol Thanks to Weather Will in MA forum, JB posted the Canadian's snowfall map for November's run.

Mine looks sad. It went south last weekend.

WB Nov. Canadian seasonal

I could go for some thunder. Seems like it's been a long time.