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The way local weather terminology gets used can definitely cause confusion, especially when terms like “Blowvember” are thrown around without clear definitions. For forecasting and planning, it helps to stick with official wind and storm potential indices from weather services. Even companies like Wood Black Car Service monitor verified forecasts closely for travel safety, which shows how important clear data really is.

WB 0Z AI EPS at Day 5. About 40% with a hit.

I sure did. Sorry.

Looks like an Archambault event….

Euro continues to show a shot at 60s Feb 19-20.. Sounding is 67F around DC

Well, the problem is Will is an ass and posted an hr270 24hr snow map so that’s not for this weekend…

Man does the long range look bad on long range models.. +EPO has the chance of making it warmer than average the last week of Feb possibly into early March. The Euro weeklies are warm through March 15th. MJO going through Phases 3-6 is a warm composite in late Feb/early March

a bit souther but much colder.

The Alberta Clipper currently affecting the area had already dropped a half foot of snow at the house as of early this morning, so it was certainly a day to hit the hill. This morning’s snow had some heft – there was over a half inch of liquid in it, and that’s much denser than the snow we’ve typically been seeing over the past few weeks. We’ve had a pleasant return to more seasonable temperatures in the 20s F, which meant it was a good day to get back to some lift-served turns. Up at Bolton Valley, the Timberline Quad was running for the first time this week, so I started my session there and got a nice sampling of the snow. Accumulations were similar to what we’d seen down in the valley, but with a half inch or more of liquid in the snow, it was a decent resurfacing. There was even a little mixed precipitation that snuck its way into the snowpack, but thankfully it was minimal enough that it was inconsequential to the skiing. The main tenor of the conditions was set up by that relatively dense powder – it was surfy, and it felt like it would have been a great day to get out the snowboard. Off piste in unracked areas the snow is quite deep, and you need decent pitch to make the best of it with the additional of this new shot of liquid. The untouched powder is a bit upside down with this new denser snow on top, so that’s a great situation to pull out your fat skis or snowboards. It was snowing steadily the entire time I was on the mountain, and it continued to snow throughout the area for the rest of the day and now into the overnight, so the snow consistency will be changing. Now that the backside upslope portion of the system is coming through, we’re getting much bigger flakes and drier snow, so that should reset the powder gradient for tomorrow.

Terrible post 2010-2011 wasn't a below normal winter. Even 2015 wasn't bad. You must be related to snowman19.

I’ll take my 1” and love it. We’re back.

WB 0Z EURO

All of the models are too warm with their surface temps for this weekend..and here's why: Their snow cover estimates are too aggressive with melting. They're assuming typical snow density and compaction. They can't handle the slow pace of north facing snowcrete melt-off. Please hit the hot dog emoji

Spunky for a newbie to open a thread; but we need some new energy!!!!

There are other indexes, stronger correlated than the WPO, that are not favorable at the end of ensemble mean runs, +nao/+epo here:

Nothing Earth shattering here but just continued picturesque powder that gradually adds up. Snow depth approaching 2'. Would love to pass it.

Much needed too! I’m at about my wits end with trying to slowly break up some of the ice on the roof. It was cool as hell though seeing a huge flock of robins drinking from a few tiny melted drops the other day on the shingles. They must be so desperate right now for any unfrozen sources they can get their claws on!

Dude what? March 2015 was a legit winter month the whole month here on Long Island. Snow on the ground almost every day of the month and some decent events too

I had snow on the ground every day of March 2015.

That would be the second most exciting event of the winter.

It was pretty clear this was never coming. The setup was a thread the needle act given the rossby wave configuration, widespread synoptic support was never there for such a coup. Models provided a little excitement but the ensembles stood pretty firm. Next! Potential blocky gradient look at the end of next week. Playing with fire a bit but I'll take it for now

Queue the it’s coming posts after the next run showing a scrape

Theme of the winter now you see it now you don’t. It’s all IVT and OE other than the one big storm

It would have to come back on the Euro for pinnage. Now we are tracking light rain withbthe chance if moderate rain.

Did the GFS come out already?