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Thats because actual atmospheric conditions are not being included in to these models. Everything is playing catchup rn. We snow!!

First, how do you think plants work? They rely on CO2! Let’s drop the CO2 levels by that same 0.0002, which is 50% of that 0.0004. That seemingly insignificant drop would diminish growth rates by up to 30% for plants who photosynthesize using C3 photosynthesis! Imagine how the biosphere would react to that! So I just disproved your point—that seemingly “small” fluctuation in CO2 levels makes a huge difference! Secondly, to answer your question about the “correct”, baseline temperature of Earth. It’s 14C. Here’s why: You are correct to point out that there are normal fluctuations in global temperature, and even without global warming, we just exited out of the Little Ice Age (1300-1700). At its peak global temperatures were around 13.5C. “Ice Age” may sound like a big cooldown to you, but really these fluctuations were only around 1C from peak ice age to peak “warm” age, and are smooth changes rather than abrupt. I will leave you with this. How does it make sense for the Earth to suddenly warm 1.5C in 100 years (more than the average difference between an ice age and “warm age) and call it natural? WxUSAF, forgive me, this will be my last post. Just needed to get this off my chest.

The actual progression in real time is looking much better for us down stream then what the models are showing rn. Also alot of moisture pretty far north on radar. The suppression doesn't look as bad either since its moving out the way.

NE CT (esp at elevation) is def different than the valley and SW CT. As much as we rib Kevin sometimes, his climate is way closer to ORH than HFD/BDL or anywhere southwest of there. But once the summer starts, he will use BDL again.

Funny how 1000' elevation tends to be colder than surrounding areas...

There is still a wave around the 24 and it’s close. It’s a little north on most guidance but given season trends don’t mind that

The 18Z RGEM just showed the most snow it has showed this week. Much more likely that it's catching up to this being a minor event than "leading the way" in any way.

The snow would have been good. But the models lost it somehow.

Shit.... Yes!! Lol

I’m sorry did you forget the substantive part of this post? Oh wait it’s YOU. Silly me. Carry on.

Someone should analyze the variance we're seeing run to run across each model. It's rare to see it this high with models going both up and down like rollercoasters - just look at the 12Z/18Z RAP and NAM. It kind of reflects who exquisitely sensitive this setup is to fairly minor variations. This might be where an NBM is the way to go - if I had to make a forecast map it would look a lot like the NBM with 1-2" for most and maybe some spots up to 3".

Plenty of 37-41s in northern CT too. Looks like your area of NE CT was the exception rather than the rule.

Are you really serious???????????????????????????????????

Overrunning events

Do you mean Patti LaBelle?

I’m one of the furthest SW posters so it made plenty of sense for my area and points southwest, the rest of NE I get it . Again was only hoping for 1-2”.

Whatever happens tomorrow night, enjoy it, LR looking kind of toasted at the moment. Alaskan pig

I told my wife that the Daytona 500 is this weekend and she said who cares (I don't watch a lot of nascar). It always meant the start of a march to spring. I leave work in the day light, tree wells get larger, snow does not last long on the roads and we can all start to worry/worship the sun angle... It was cloudy most of the day. 36 for a high. now 32.

Brief shout out to the great Arctic front 11 years ago that changed our season of futility to an epic finish. https://imgur.com/a/esKC90G

37.6 for a high in this area, clouds and a breeze most of the day and a few flurries. The vibe was overall more wintry than spring here, but the small puddles next to the snow banks dont lie as there was a small amount of melting.

Nice refresher

Shasta County in northern California will see snow accumulations from 4 to 8 FEET. Mammoth will only get glanced by this, they will see totally manageable accumulations from 2 to maybe 4 feet. I wish Shasta had cameras. It would be amusing to watch 8 feet of snow pile up. Shasta turns out to have a live cam https://www.skipark.com/winter/mountain-cams Question is does it have lights at night you can see the dendrites fall by? Because if so I just might end up liking Shasta better then Mammoth. Couple feet of snow on a western resort is so pedestrian.

We tried to tell everyone. Investing in this was futile

Zzzzz

No worries, I didn’t at all take it as any kind of criticism. I did think it was funny that I pretty much gave this storm 2-3 days up to the 48-60hr range for it to come back north and then of course it does right after I made my “it’s probably not happening” post. So now a period of steadier precip happening with this looks fairly likely, certainly from the turnpike south but perhaps as expansive as from I-80 south. Big issue now that’s happening with guidance overall is suggesting the lower column might not be cold enough. GFS has obviously been the coldest solution in that regard, but high res NAM, HRRR, Euro to a degree present that this might start as rain and possibly remain so for a majority of the event. While surface temps probably won’t be as warm as today (likely more high 30s to low 40s), there’s depth to the low level warmth in the column all the way up to about 850mb. 925mb (3000 ft) temps are progged as much as +5-6ºC prior to precip onset on most guidance. That makes a rain start pretty likely. Colder sub 0ºC air at that level eventually tries to advect in from the NE as the storm deepens as it gets off the coast. GFS does it the fastest, hence its snowier solution. Euro draws it in late, which leads to measurable snows more in eastern PA. High res guidance like the 3k NAM isn’t drawing it down in time.