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You just lost 13"+ in 6 hours. OK. Looks like a similar slp path to this weekend's rainstorm.

It didn’t change that much for being that far out. Just had a later bombing but similar idea

It's also 7 days out, if it wasn't jumping around 7 days out, it would have been the greatest thing in meteorology since like weather baloons lol

Still gets down below 980mb so still a monster. Just not as much altitude gain

2 things. 1, it's definitely learning. And 2, let's everyone quit putting this thing on a pedestal, because it jumps around with the rest of them.

Ggem just came around. I’d wait a run to assume it’s settled on a final idea. All the guidance right now still has a healthy enough primary that we get a good snowstorm of not the HECS places east of us would get. There is time to see it adjust either way. My bigger fear is the primary trends dryer and it becomes a pure miller b which would carry the threat of a real screw job up here.

Feb 2022?

Nice hit for Mid Atlantic.

AI euro is a grazer.

AI south and east

why are all the kids adding "-maxxing" as a suffix?

Euro running. Someone up for PBP?

That's the lean so far with every model that shows a storm. EuroAI is now running, but I wouldn't expect it to pick up on that nuance at this stage...but it could based on our luck I suppose.

Now if they did happen can it go in my book? That is a very valid concern and odds favor a miss to the east in a Nina but not EVERY time goes that way, so we can’t just assume. But yes my biggest fear would be a weaker primary with a late bombing tightly wound miller b that crushes east of us. That’s the hecs MO for Nina

now we wait for the Euro's to see if they join the 0Z snowstorm party - when is the last time we had it "easy" around here almost week out with most models predicting a MECS this far out and it verifying ?

Ukie gone wild

GEFS is all over the place.

I was talking to @TSSN+ and @HighStakes earlier this evening and said March 58 was a decent analog in terms of the general setup. March 58 maxed out so don’t expect that. The issue with analogs is often the analog used was the max event for that type of pattern and 99/100 repeats of the same setup won’t reach that level or extreme. Although the potential exists if it went perfectly. A more likely outcome is always a less extreme version.

Get ready to be fringed.

How’s the @Maestrobjwa storm coming along.

The closest 500mb analogs to this setup are probably March 1958 and December 1992. Not that its going to play out like either of those at the surface.

It's the new Dr. No that's living off It's old reputation imho. By the way, Gefs look like cr@p with snowfall, so don't bother looking.

Miller B will likelyhavw a big screw zone. I do not want to be Raleigh

Nothing is left from last night. Classic late winter slop event where the sun angle melts everything pretty much immediately.

Ukie !