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  2. vortex95
    Yet another solid 500 trough for July, This time actuality cuts-off and is slow to move out, so looks like Mon-Wed tstms each day in some form, and maybe Thu if the ECMWF is right. Tue appears the best for svr wx currently. GFS and ECMWF don't hesitate to replace this 500 low w/ another one just beyond week, so active times ahead it seems.
  3. vortex95
    Yes, I thought of the terms used for CAPE here, but that's what is in literature. Maybe "wide" and "narrow" CAPE is better!
  4. jaxjagman
    Maybe we will get a break with clouds upcoming,be cool to watch https://www.amsmeteors.org/meteor-showers/meteor-shower-calendar/#Perseids
  5. Jebman
    I love your thinking, snowman! I want tons of rain! I want transport of moisture from the deep tropics, too! This is a monster Nino! I want monster rains this autumn and winter and in Spring 2027!
  6. CHItoMKE916
    Riding any models with the wild SSW storm motions
  7. Today
  8. Eskimo Joe
    "Sub 990 lows don't go quietly into the night." @Rainshadow
  9. KakashiHatake2000
    Oh I bet definitely a perfect view .
  10. snowman19
    Very strong signal for a warm east this December….El Niño/+QBO has been a slam dunk for that since 1979. And I would be shocked if the southwest isn’t wet this winter given the super Nino/++PMM combo that really juices the STJ
  11. Chris78
    Tonight's game is on Albernaz. Not ready for prime time
  12. cyclone77
    Looking forward to seeing a frontlit anvil on eastern horizon at sunset.
  13. mayjawintastawm
    Glorious here, 0.45" from an outflow-generated storm. Finally. Most in 6 weeks or more. Temp went from 96 to 66 in a couple of hours. You'll get it, eventually!
  14. smokeybandit
    A huge plume of rain literally 2-3 miles to my west for the last hour, yet it refuses to come east.
  15. A-L-E-K
  16. dendrite
    Lol…C MN…puff puff pass
  17. dendrite
    A little overmixed in fantasy land
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    August historically has a pretty good correlation with ENSO's peak later in the year. It's expected to become the strongest on record by Dec and here's the preceding Augusts: There is some -NAO in the mix but right now it's looking like this usually highly correlated month will not be anything special below-average-wise. PNA has been negative 6 straight months including July, and that is the source of the problem.
  19. Kmlwx
    Take notes people. EJ is interested
  20. yotaman
    High of 78. Picked up 1.24" for the day.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Sub-990 low running to Lake Erie in July could be interesting next Tuesday.
  22. forkyfork
    thann you for your input, winter related username
  23. Weather Will
    Beautiful evening in OC. Reminds me of decades ago when I used to bring jeans and a light jacket on my summer vacations to the eastern shore.
  24. SACRUS
    Clouds from around 4pm today looking clear tomorrow, mainly sunny Sat and Sun.
  25. SACRUS
    Today's Highs: TEB: 84 New Brnswck: 83 PHL: 83 NYC: 83 EWR: 82 TTN: 82 LGA: 82 ACY: 81 ISP: 81 JFK: 80 BLM: 80
  26. raindancewx
    If you go by the June -SOI (-22 is very strong for an El Nino historically) you'd expect a cooler than average Great Basin & New England. Not what we have. Moisture is closer though, its wet / dry in mostly the right areas, although spottier than I'd like. Long-term, -SOI in July is a weak cold West signal for Sept, and then the eastern ~5/6 of the lower 48 is weakly favored cold in October. Dec goes to Cold West, Warm East, Mild Plains favored. December also has the first deeper blue signal for precipitation - strongly favoring the Midwest/Southwest for a wet month. No big signals for January via July SOI. In February, SE is strongly favored cold, NW strongly favored warm. March is then a strong SW / Plains wet signal, weak SW cold signal. We're in a flash flood warning here - it's been a good monsoon day statewide (finally). So the precip map should move closer to the correlation map for New Mexico after today.
  27. ineedsnow
    Leftovers
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