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I feel like we're going to be saying a lot of "GWDLs" next week. Sucks for those who live in doom and gloom zones. Monday sucks for all but the remainder of the week doesn't seem to terrible for us

Subsurface anomalies over +5C showing up:

I'll go with a solid B here. Only about 80% of climo on the snow, but the 'snowcrete' from 1/25 stayed OTG for a long stretch, almost 3 weeks. Temps were actually nice for once, with below normal for majority of the winter. The wild and strange events in March with the 40-50 degree temp swings and snow after almost 80 was crazy. The 'no A' comes from March and April being almost snowless, had we gotten close to the averages we would have been close to annual snowfall average.

I see the SOI has gone strongly positive in the last couple of days. I don’t know how long that’ll last though.

58 with very little wind under August 23rd sun ( this weekend) is going be just fine for me, anyway. Sunday sucks tho. Nasty cold front with a 36 hour -5 anomaly behind it...I guess we need something to keep it real tho.

Exactly. I get that primary cluster was overperforming into the mid-state but there was still time to issue a watch. SPC did issue a MD highlighting counties, though by then, the deck had been reshuffled and those established risk zones were obsolete. 99.9% of people aren’t paying attention to those discussions unless they’re promoted by a local weather authority. Bottom line: The now-casting reluctance is a tad concerning. Hopefully, SPC isn’t as gun-shy next time.

I know what you're getting at but 65/44 ( say ..) is still a very significant warm anomaly. (as an aside, also a handsome CC piggy. haha)

I noticed this too. Especially the GFS. I'm not completely sold on it, but it's been steadily backing off the -NAO's blocking. 00z constructed a 564+ dm warm sector ballooned to the southern Lakes, E to our doorstop next Thur/Fri. That's not really a cold anomaly - it is in fact still a very warm one relative to April. Even if that warm air doesn't spill in here, it's not like it's aching hands on the cool side, either. The other models are also backing off of the -NAO's, but still are colder in complexion. The Canadian being the most happy. The Euro has other days that are sneaky mild. Overall, the influence of a -NAO circulation mode is coherent. However, the depth of the negative thickness ( the blue(cold) vs warmer(red) lines) have been easing off a little per runs

dont do that

You wonder when it will be 80 again.

They need to remove those shower chances. Looks dry

I’ll sell all those 60s except maybe for NJ. Wednesday could be decent though. Otherwise meh.

To be fair… none of the cams had that MCS like structure move through middle Tennessee. A couple of the mods had a system like that, but they had the system track more from Northern Arkansas, Southeast through Western Tennessee into northern Mississippi, Alabama. That’s why a slight risk was put out in the area where the mods had the cluster tracking. However, I do believe that looking at the atmospheric conditions of middle Tennessee yesterday afternoon, once those storms fired and it was obvious they were headed toward middle Tennessee, I do agree I think a watch was appropriate for that area. I’m not even sure that a MD was put out just to talk about the system. .

Surface temps weren’t that impressive 28/29c but OHC was high enough as warm water extended deep. It also reached MPI as the atmospheric environment was exceptional. .

The next ice age is just around the corner geologically speaking…so we enjoy the interlude. All kidding aside..what a gorgeous week. Would love to keep this going right through the spring…

University of Arizona has a bold forecast, much more active than other forecasts to date: 9 hurricanes and 4 majors with an ACE of 155. Their model is based on machine learning initialized with ECMWF seasonal forecast SSTs. They cite forecast significantly above normal tropical Atlantic SSTs as the main factor. News release: https://has.arizona.edu/news/forecast-2026-hurricane-activities-over-north-atlantic More technical summary: https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2026-04/April-2026-Tropical-Cyclone-Forecast.pdf Seasonal hurricane predictions that have been issued so far: https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/forecast/seasonal-prediction Univ. of Arizona has a very good track record. They started issuing Apr outlooks in 2022. Their Jun forecasts were notably higher than almost all others in 2017, 2019 and 2023 and ended up verifying well (In Jun 2017 they forecast 181 ACE and actual was 225, while most other outlooks were in the 100-130 range). In Jun 2019 they forecast 151 ACE and actual was 132, while most other outlooks were in the 80-105 range. In Apr 2023, they forecast 163 ACE and actual was 148, while most other outlooks were in the 90-130 range). Notice that all 3 years had El Nino conditions at the time of forecast initialization and the Nino was forecast to strengthen - but in 2017 and 2019 that strengthening failed to occur and in 2023 the Nino ended up weaker than many models had forecast and while it limited Atlantic activity to a degree, it was less impactful than expected. In 2022, 2024 and 2025 their Apr outlooks were notably lower than almost all others (In 2022 UA forecast 129 ACE and actual was 96, while almost all other outlooks were in the 150-190 range. In 2024, they forecast 156 ACE and actual was 162, with almost all other outlooks in the 185-230 range. In 2025, they forecast 110 ACE and actual was 133, with most other outlooks in the 145-190 range.) You can download all of the historical hurricane season prediction data for past years from the Univ of Barcelona site linked above. Personally I would go with an ACE range of 80-130 right now. Main reason is I believe the standing wave of low-level westerlies over the eastern Atlantic and west Africa will help lead to an Atlantic Nino, energize the W. African monsoon (WAM) and lead to an active wave train, while as we know El Nino influence on shear is mainly west of 60W. Also, the persistent very warm SST anomalies in the NW Pacific from E of Japan to S of AK and the SW Pacific east of AU/NZ (e.g. negative IPO) along with the above-mentioned Atlantic Nino and African standing wave would likely lead to resistance toward WWBs reaching the eastern Pacific (with the focus remaining near the dateline). This would tend to shift the Walker circulation west of a typical moderate to strong Nino. I think there's a 55% chance RONI stays below strong Nino levels through Aug-Oct. Not ruling out a strong Nino, but I think a super Nino RONI-wise is unlikely (<15%) through Aug-Oct. My main analog years are 1951, 1963, 1969, 2006, 2015, and 2018, with more emphasis on the first three given the strong WAM that prevailed.

thats the rule of thumb down here too, at least for annuals. I already have some perennials and shrubs in, but I know better than to get annuals yet.

A few showers skirted just north of Raleigh this morning.

So much for the weeks of doom and gloom we're down to 3 days lol

Yep, last nights line looked like it had some promise but did the NYC split. Onshore flow while moist tends to produce misery mist but not much actual precip. .

U G H and yuck!

it's possible we get a little snow Monday night huh?

Suppose to get some sun in the aft and high of 21C/73F - fog and grey again this morning. Guidance shows our crepuscular nightmare ends Sunday with a new wx regime.

the new Erie, IL

Based on the above maps for Jan, I’m going to consider renting a place in Anniston, AL, just for that month.