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The interesting thing is how much of a La Niña-like influence we are currently getting with the record warm pool from the IO over to the Maritime Continent and ENSO regions. Sure we are seeing the development of the El Nino standing wave which is expected. But as the forcing shifts back west of there, we keep getting these Southeast ridge amplifications with record heat which are more La Niña-like. So much more of an overlapping influence of the multiple forcing zones. Now this has a few potential ramifications going forward. First, we would expect the El Niño standing wave to get stronger as time progresses as the record ENSO SSTs increase. Second the record mid-latitude SSTs could also carry the Niña-like signal for more interactions going forward. So a more active Southeast ridge pattern to go along with the Nino-ridge response further north over North America. This winter will present a good real time test of the new RONI scale. If the RONI can set records along with the expected ONI ones, then we can see if the scale will be valid by what the atmospheric response looks like. If the Aleutian low and low in the south to Mid-Atlantic is weaker than the 1997-1998 El Niño like in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024, then it may just be a new character of super El Niños and not related to RONI. Then in this case it would point out that the RONI may not be a valuable in such high end super El Niño events. But more a tool for marginal La Ninas where the WPAC warm pool is more significant than the ENSO SSTs.

As bad as it will be in much of the SE, consider that the NYC forecasted low for July 4th is a very oppressive 81 F!

This early humidity and heat is no joke. Just got a call from my youngest who is helping at a Pony Camp in Bluemont. She just passed out. She is ok but it was a wake up call that she needs to get some issues she has been having figured out. It was definitely the heat that cause it.

Mine is all brown

Have you got much rain? Seems to miss me Everytime.

Carry a few extra pony o’s with you on your travels in case you need to do more tie backs than normal due to the HHH

Steamy out there.

Reach 90? That’s silly they will get past 90 reaching 100 is questionable at least today at this point.

89 / 71 here

See my response above to GaWx…not familiar with climate reanalyzer but it’s probably pretty accurate given that AMSR2 area is very low too. NSIDC area is quite low as well, just not as low as AMSR2 or climate reanalyzer. But we aren’t that interested in getting the most accurate area measurement right now for “seasonal minimum” record purposes. We’re more interested in what can give the most accurate forecast…which I outlined above in that response.

Because it's a trust thing. If a future FA wants to come here, and they know that a 5 year commitment could be axed halfway into the first season...why would they? You get established here as the big signing, press conference and everything, big polar bear promotion...get into the community...finally settle in at the plate...and then you get shipped out immediately? Bad business when it's a player of his caliber. That kind of thing goes beyond money. Players are still human beings, man--so when they sign obviously the money is the main piece, but it is not the only thing. Commitment of more than 3 months to a top FA does matter. Why would a future FA come here knowing a team will just ship you off before giving you even one dang season?

Wouldn't it be hilarious if DCA got river winded through this entire event and failed to reach 90 degrees?

The rain the past two days has definitely helped pump up the humidity levels.

I’ve spent about 30 seconds total in the attic in the 28 years I have lived here. Actually. That was even before we bought the house. It was just during the inspection. It is a useless attic other than being an insulator.

Hagerstown be cookin.

AMSR2 area is totally fine as an instant metric. It’s more accurate than NSIDC SSMI/S area….but the key is that SSMI/S area has much more predictive power than AMSR2 area. SSMI/S (what NSIDC uses) gets fooled by melt ponds whereas AMSR2 not nearly as much. But we actually like that SSMI/S gets fooled by melt ponds because melt ponds in June are more predictive of seasonal minimum area than AMSR2 area itself. So we’re basically using SSMI/S as a proxy tool for meltponding. This is why there are some years where we may be flirting with the lowest extent or area late in June and I’ll make a post that says a new seasonal record is almost impossible and many will ask why or in earlier times, call me crazy and a science denier. The reason is that meltponding isn’t prolific enough to sustain huge melting deeper into the summer. The second half of June was quite cold in the Beaufort/Chukchi region which has the highest sea ice area in the post-2007 arctic right now at this point (nearly tied with 2009). That is another bearish sign for a new record. That region is typically where we see huge losses in record or near-record low sea ice years. A lot of the low area numbers are currently being driven by record low sea ice in Hudson Bay, Greenland sea, and Baffin Bay. These are mostly irrelevant to the minimum later in the season. In fact, if you go just by arctic basin (Beaufort/Chukchi/East Siberian Sea/Laptev/Central arctic basin) plus CAA (Canadian Archipelago) composite area, the only post-2007 years that are higher than 2026 are 2009, 2013, and 2014. Those also happen to be the 3 highest minimums post-2007.

AI - Apocalyptic Intent

Can you get up there with him to take advantage of the heat ?

We have a contractor doing work in our attic all day. I asked if he wanted to reschedule. Nope. AC is blasting but we can feel the heat spewing from the opening into it.

I just don't understand how the "powers that be" let the CP climate record go to hell and don't seem to care. How difficult is it to properly site a temperature sensor? It was fine where it was at the castle and was much more reflective of the temperature in CP. Frustrating. The topic has been beaten like a rented mule so this will forever be my last comment on the subject. Don, thanks for the stats. as always.

I doubt he will be. He has a partial no trade clause. The logic in doing it is because the team may not be competitive for a few years, and they are going to lose 'core' players to FA, so why not get some younger players via a trade if its to a team Alonso is willing to go to? No idea why you think that hurts their chances to sign future FAs. Its all about the money dude.

Heat be wester. lol Martinsburg at 89 while dca at 84

10:50 AM in Purcellville --> 89.9/79/106 --> It is thick outside - a wall of steamy madness!

Looks like another decent thunderstorm complex taking shape west northwest of Montreal. Maybe we deal with that later?

DCA well off the pace. Change in wind direction equal a big jump later?