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  2. GaWx
    Are we headed for another 2023-4 where SSTs are warm around Australia? Per JB, the models that showed for winter 2023-4 at H5 the mean E US trough/Aleutian low (most of them) didn’t have it that warm there and thus he blamed the warmth around Australia.
  3. bluewave
    Yeah, we can go back to last November to see the very beginning of this record El Niño event for so early in the season. The WWB over the Maritime Continent was essentially tied for the strongest on record during the month of November. It began to give that record warm pool a nudge to the east with the record WWBs expanding eastward in the following months.
  4. GaWx
    After a very strong warming the prior 5 days averaging a very impressive 0.1C/day, the latest OISST 3.4 finally slowed its warming although it still warmed slightly (.014). Now that the full week’s data is in, I’m guessing 3.4 will be warmed by 0.3C to +0.8C in tomorrow’s release:
  5. steve392
    Nice thunderstorm blew up in nj as we were coming back from visiting a family member in hospital in New haven. Pretty good lightning with thunder once in Paramus, nj.
  6. Birds~69
    DP coming down. Was 69F a little while ago, now 61F. 81F
  7. nw baltimore wx
    I think that’s across all topics on social media. There’s a lot of misinformation out there.
  8. Snowlover11
    Was supposed to rain today? Currently at the yankee game and got soaked. Fire boone!
  9. GaWx
    The MJO ended up going strongly into phase 8 (see image below) after all despite models a couple of weeks ago going only modestly into it and extended ensembles a month ago turning left in 7 toward the circle/missing 8. Bastardi back in April predicted W Car/Gulf TCG in June based on his expectation the MJO would go into 8 despite the extended ensembles not showing that. He more often than not predicts early activity. So, that’s not unusual. But he was right about the MJO. Will he be right about the Atlantic basin June TCG? Models/ensembles are hinting at the chance for this late this week:
  10. MN Transplant
    Drought
  11. weatherwiz
    The amount of wind we have had this spring has been absolutely annoying. It seems like every day is gusting 15-20+ mph.
  12. winterwx21
    Nice. Sometimes we get our best storms on these slight 20% chance days.
  13. Stormlover74
    Really pouring and hailing Special weather statement came too late
  14. roardog
    If we are to believe the CFS then 1+2 will have a lower anomaly than 3.4 by later this summer. There’s a period of time where 4 is almost the same as 1+2. I still think the model forecasts for 3.4 to get well over 3.0 are crazy but I guess we’ll see.
  15. suzook
    Yup, we bought a 1 story ranch 2 years ago. Love it! Congrats on the new home
  16. winterwx21
    I'm jealous lol.
  17. winterwx21
    Yeah I see those dark clouds to the north and hear the thunder. Just a few drops here as it misses me just a couple miles to the north.
  18. Stormlover74
    Bordering on severe
  19. Stormlover74
    Much more impressive than last night Crazy wind now
  20. Stormlover74
    Damn that came out of nowhere
  21. Hoth
    No damage from last night's storm in my back yard, but my neighbor four houses up had two mature maples snap about 10 feet from the ground, one of which crushed his Jeep. Major bummer!
  22. Stormlover74
    Downpour and hail
  23. kdxken
    This is pretty cool.
  24. Paleocene
    Hot
  25. Stormlover74
    Thundering
  26. Stormlover74
    More pop up showers
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