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Just checking in. A month ago it looked like a possible west based Nino. Now east base? I thought 2009-10 was a east base?

1.80" for event, up to 5" for month....first 5"+ month since 8/24.

Rare to see the CSU and SPC so at odds (wrt Tuesday). 12k NAM has a couple rounds here locally, one midday and one later in the evening, while the RRFS has just one, in the afternoon. my interest is certainly piqued whenever we get strong flow in the summer, so expecting at least a few SVRs throughout the day.

There still is some suspended smoke on satellite.

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring in the northeastern Gulf of America during the past few days has now developed a well-defined low-level circulation. The convective activity remains patchy, likely due to intrusions of dry air from its northeast, but there is enough persistent convection near the center and in bands on its northeast and southwest sides to justify this system as a tropical depression. The circulation is sprawling and still weak, however. Based on surface observations and earlier ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 25 kt and the minimum pressure is 1011 mb. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system later today, and their data will be helpful to better assess the system’s initial structure. The initial motion of the system is difficult to know since it has only recently become well defined, but our best guess is north-northwestward at 3 kt. The system is currently caught in weak steering currents between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the northeast U.S. This pattern should take the cyclone slowly northwestward through Monday night, and the system will likely be close enough to the Florida Panhandle to bring the potential for tropical storm conditions there. After that time, a turn to the west or west-northwest seems to be the most likely scenario as the ridge over the southern U.S. builds eastward, taking the system near or across the Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of the week. The NHC track forecast lies a touch to the south of middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI. The sprawling nature of the system, nearby dry air, and some northeasterly vertical wind shear suggest that any strengthening should be slow to occur, especially in the short term. Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm as it approaches the Florida Panhandle during the next day or two. There seems to be a better opportunity for the system to strengthen once it turns westward, however, the amount of strengthening will be dependent on how far offshore the circulation is. The NHC track forecast lies toward the upper end of the model guidance, however, there is a low amount of confidence given the uncertainty of how much land interaction will take place. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. 2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 28.0N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 28.2N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 28.5N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 28.8N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 29.1N 86.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 29.7N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 29.5N 91.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 29.7N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

"Smoke jail". Like it Up here, after 3 days of heat, then 3 days of very heavy smoke, I deem it "Hell Week".

Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 85.3W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Florida from Ochlockonee River to the Alabama border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48 hours. Additional watches will likely be required over the next day or two. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday. The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

The CFS showed a similar forecast for the 23-24 super El Niño and we saw how that turned out. The model may just be defaulting to general El Niño correlations. So not sure if we can say it’s an actual forecast. Correlation Verification

Here I can't see smoke as its blue skies finally with sun, everyone out there is saying hi because we're all so happy to get out of smoke jail. Aqi of about 60 so not really an woe current and let it stay. A bit cool early though it was 16C/61F til 9am.

2009-2010 was the warmest Canadian winter on record (to that point).

We'll see what August has to offer but you have to think the hottest of the hot is behind us for this summer. With the wet period underway that would tend to make it harder to reach into the upper 90's +.

Why does it seem like there’s still residual wildfire smoke?

Happy to have joined the smoke party that we missed out on last week.

Total rainfall here yesterday was .99". Received .92" from morning round and just .07" from the second round during the evening. Nice out this morning with a light breeze, generally blue skies although some slight haze is lingering. Smoke still continues to spill into the western lakes region and then filters east from there. Much more diluted than recent days. Rainfall map attached. Western areas of the sub forum kind of got shafted. Surprised some locations didn't see bigger totals based on training echoes on radar yesterday south of 78 and north of I195 and across the city and LI. My lawn is looking great for mid July! I have not had to water much if at all over the last month around here. Enjoy the day!

TD2 advisories to be initiated at 11AM.

It seems that I got lucky yesterday compared to nearly CoCoRaHS stations, and ended up with .77” from early and afternoon storms. The two closest stations to my east got about half that. I also didn’t expect to still smell smoke today.

Corrected July 18. Had July 19 in there. When I was doing July 19, I was like "That looks familiar" lol.

Looks like warm temps the next couple days around 90. We'll see. Point cast is not really that reliable. It was to be 85 yesterday, and only made it to the upper 70's. Smoke has been light.

July 19 1987: The town of Floodwood lives up to its name with nearly 6 inches of rain in two days. For Sunday, July 19, 2026 1886 - A hurricane from the Gulf of Mexico crossed Florida causing great damage from Cedar Keys to Jacksonville. (David Ludlum) 1960 - Cow Creek and Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, CA, reported morning lows of 102 degrees. The afternoon high at Greenland Ranch was 124 degrees, and the high at Cow Creek that afternoon was 126 degrees. The coolest low for the entire month for both locations was 82 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1974 - A severe thunderstorm with winds to 80 mph and up to two inches of rain washed out four to five foot deep sections of roadway in Lake Havasu City, AZ. Three persons in a station wagon died as it was carried 3000 feet down a wash by a ten foot wall of water. (The Weather Channel) 1977 - Thunderstorms produced torrential rains over parts of southwestern Pennsylvania. Some places receive more than twelve inches in a seven hour period. The heavy rains cause flash flooding along streams resulting in widespread severe damage. The cloudburst floods Johnstown with up to ten feet of water resulting in 76 deaths, countless injuries, and 424 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Fifteen cities in the western and the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Winnemucca, NV, with a reading of 33 degrees. Flagstaff AZ reported a record low of 34 degrees. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in New York State and New Jersey. High winds and hail two inches in diameter injured two persons and caused considerable damage to crops in the Pine Island area of central New York State. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced more than five inches of rain at Red Cloud, including two inches in fifteen minutes. Torrid temperatures continued over California, with record highs of 115 degrees at Red Bluff and 116 degrees at Redding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Early morning thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley produced 5.50 inches of rain south of Alexander, AR, in just ninety minutes, and flash flooding which resulted claimed the life of one woman. Thunderstorms in Indiana produced 4.95 inches of rain in twelve hours east of Muncie. Eight cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Las Vegas, NV, with a reading of 115 degrees, and Phoenix, AZ, with a high of 116 degrees. The low that night at Phoenix of 93 degrees was the warmest of record for that location. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005 - A severe heat wave gripped the region during early to mid-July. Las Vegas, NV tied their all-time record high temperature of 117 degrees, equalling the old record set on July 24, 1942. 2006 - The first of two severe thunderstorms hits the St. Louis area, causing the largest power outage in the city's history with over 570,000 people losing electricity. Observances: 19 Sun National Daiquiri Day 19 Sun Seneca Falls Convention 19 Sun National Ice Cream Day 19 Sun Flight Attendant Safety Professionals' Day 19 Sun International Retainer Day 19 Sun National Football Day 19 Sun National Urban Beekeeping Day 19 Sun National Words with Friends Day

It's been top 5 hottest June 1 through July 15 period with mostly ridging in the east. Only now are troughs being introduced.

Smoke is back. Sunrise at the airport dog park this morning.

Perfection! Today Sunny, with a high near 74. Northwest wind around 14 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 50. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Monday Sunny, with a high near 78. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 57. Calm wind. Tuesday A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 8pm. Low around 66. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog before 9am. High near 76. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Night Showers likely, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Calm wind. Friday Sunny, with a high near 79. Light west wind. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Calm wind. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.

The latest CFSv2 run’s mean is at new highs for peak: Monthly relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.6 (Nov), which is way above current record (back to 1950) warmest of +2.69 (Jan ‘83) : 3 month relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.35 (SON and OND), which is way above the record back to 1950 of +2.52 (NDJ 1982-3)

Hopefully Canada isn't torched by Pacific puke for most of the winter.