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Cue the euro burying the energy SW.

Lets fire up a bitching and whining thread, Oh wait, We already have 4 others.

Look at euro snow output through day 12 for some comedic relief

The 12Z Euro was good for the E Carolinas and extra good for SE GA. Of course I love it but I’m still leaning to the 1/28-9/14 type of NW model trend due to similar indices to take most or all of it away. We’ll see as every case is somewhat unique:

Dont have latest eps, but really like what it was hinting at 0z for after the 27th

For once can something work out. Is 3-6” that much to ask. FFS.

I guess in a bright note (for those who like cold) the January thaw looks like it ends today, CPK will be approx 40 tomorrow.

Not best company but 12z CMC also has similar evolution. This threat is legit.

I do like the AIs being more bullish on this. They wanted almost nothing to do with 1/15 which was kind of a red flag. I wouldn’t forecast solely on AI models, but if they are showing more support then that always helps.

Is it though? I mean has the GFS been terrible or no? I'd argue that's a fact--we hoped it was onto something for tomorrow but it was wrong then too, lol

UK was terrible. EURO was not great but it was mostly due to the energy being less consolidated than a bad trend with regards to placement, etc. think as someone else stated we’ve reached the stage of models jumping around. We’re still 4 days out our storms are never nailed down at this range. Watch those two closely we don’t want to separate into GFS vs the world

Gefs impressive thru 324hrs

the AIFS-EPS is wetter, so that's nice. vort digs more

I mean unfortunately he’s probably not wrong. We got about 500” digital snow from gfs and basically nothing to show for it. Maybe it can find a nut like a blind squirrel for once but it’s rough.

Desperate times call for desperate measures, no? Ji just declared winter over...again? We've been can kicking for how many weeks now? It would be fair to say its hard to be optimistic as this point since we've been in the Nina pattern of warm/wet to cold/dry as many years past have given us. Cold has been around this year, not almost no presence of a S/S. Trusting the GFS as poorly as it's performed this year (and even in past years when it had some successes) is a difficult proposition when its the only model showing what we need. That is more of a fact than an assumption or a statement out of left field.

No. It was in reference to a family’s crazy uncle at thanksgiving who happens to be drunk but that piece was never in the name.

Yeah, it probably is not getting sampled well if it is at the NP. Once it arrives on the continent, we might see a jump one way or the other. Need ground obs and plane obs.

You contribute more than you know. I've been meaning to ask if you are thinking about studying meteorology--you seem to have a natural understanding of things!

GEPS around the period above has up top ridging flexing and pressing on the tpv. I can live with a WAR here as the epo is still firing and if you advance this panel, an aleutian low is building. Really like 27-29 and much of what follows tbh. And those around a while know I dont honk LR stuff very often. Nothing discrete yet but our best window by far approaching imho

Ride the AIs

The EC-AIFS is actually on board with this one. I think Boston to SE MA still very much should watch for heaviest snowfall of the season. A very low bar(I know)… 12z GFS is super amped but at least evolution is similar. This is key difference from the 16th where GFS had no other support at similar lead time.

Hopefully Tyler Loop isn't kicking

Yeah the full description was “the crazy drunk uncle” but we all just shortened it to crazy uncle. Jerry def came up with the name at least 15 years ago…I think it was late 2000s winters.

Yea, no one expects a blizzard.

Bitterly cold run of the 12z Euro.