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CO2?

Pattern is locked in with no signs of changes

Meh. Been nothing special. Greta.

The other concerning thing is lack of coastals this fall. We had 1. The nor’easter . Everything else has been cutters and fropas with a ton of wind which looks to Continue the next few weeks.

About as boring as you can run a -2. If we ran a +2 like this people would be saying it was faux warmth. But yeah, it’s been fairly seasonal with no real ups and downs.

It’s been a consistently fake airmass autumn. Lowest here is 27.9

Cant believe how warm it was the last week. 83 yesterday, and muggy. Felt like the begining of September. As usual, we are still lacking in the rain dept. Half inch for the month. Today should be a beautiful with less humidity and a high temp of 75. I have to admit, I am enjoying outdoor activities with this warmth.

Seems like guidance is really struggling with the Pacific pattern in early December. There will be some very cold air somewhere in North America. Not much more is certain yet.

Latest 17F or colder at CON is 12/12/1998. That’s pretty far out there still.

Consistently cold mornings her for weeks though.

I see +NAO/-PNA

Yes. You went against the grain and said weeks ago that you thought the November stratospheric warming was going to be a weaker wave reflection event and the SPV was going to rebound and strengthen quickly again mid-late December. If that works out, then it will have been a very impressive call

39 here. One last leaf cleanup today and then setting a neighbors oak tree on fire. It’s still half full and I’ll be damned if I let it blow leaves over to my yard

The airports average 1-3" of snow for December, so expectations should be in check. It is our fourth snowiest month.

Yeah…run of the mill stuff for Novie standards.

So warm and dry. This is NOT good. Yes its NWS...so they cant be counted on these days. We are still in drought conditions in my area so I really hope we get some much needed precip this winter.

WB 6Z AI EPS Dec 8. Few hits starting to show up as early as Dec 4.

20.3⁰ for the low, coldest of the season. Everything is frozen, looks nice with the sun coming up. Clouds are beginning to roll in, going to make for quite the chilly day.

Let’s get a GFS landfalling cane.

It’s good that all of us using different methods had a weaker PNA for this December than the record +PNA La Niña mismatch last December following the stronger amplitude MJO 5 over +2.70 in October 2024.

Been meh morning lows. No real arctic shots.

Nothing too exciting through the runs for SNE…

Pretty nice run of the Euro AIFS at 6z.

23 here…coldest so far-many below freezing mornings this autumn.

21F here. So close to 1st teems. Coldest AM thus far this cold season.