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Today near 90 and next weekend too imo as long as it doesn’t rain. What a stretch we’ve been in. Definitely cools down this week.

Hottest August ever lolz. Where do people come up with this stuff?

A bit of fog here in Templeton this morning.

NHC noting the possibility of some impacts 4. Interests along the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of the week.

Met summer here is stuck at 3.93". Average thru August 16 is just over 11".

Anymore shifts and outer banks could be looking at some fringe effects.

We were on the verge of drought imby when I left, glad to see the multi year just in time rains trend continue

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Hot tamale today

We can look at the SST data for the WPAC over the last 10 years and see that this has been a top down rather than bottom up warming process. The subsurface charts show warming starting at the surface around 10 years ago and gradually working down. It also matches the increase in high pressure and drop in clouds. This is consistent with the warming we have seen in other oceans like the Atlantic following light winds, more sunshine, higher pressure, and fewer clouds.

Not anymore unfortunately for the heat and dew crowd. 80 + maybe?

Looks like we get a break for a while on the mid 90s after today. This week should be very close to seasonable for the temperarures. But unfortunately it still looks drier than normal. August 18-25 forecast

I think the last rain of significance at Pit2 was on July 13th when a tiny little cell stalled right over my head and gave a 90-120 minutes of absolute deluge. Horrible after since. August: 0.0. Lawn is brown and crispy.

Finally some rain for the Pioneer Valley!

Can you narrow it down further to -NAO/-ENSO (La Niña/cold-neutral) winters? The whole theory was based on years with high ACE and recurving hurricanes during -ENSO’s supposedly causing -NAO blocking during winter

It really looked like the inner eyewall was trying to weaken last night, but now it's seemingly strengthening and the outer eyewall growing larger/weaker. Very strange

6z nhc track is again to far east as models again shift west.

Where did you get that gem?!I love that

Pretty wicked non-severe cracks and strobing.

OBX keep an eye on this one. These wobbles might put them in play if she turns too wide

That’s what she said

Observing radar the past 12 hours has been fascinating. Erin's small inner eyewall refuses to die. Its ring will weaken for a time, then come back with intense DBZ echoes. Yet, the outer concentric band remains but doesn't appear to be intensifying enough to allow the inner eyewall to finally choke off and collapse. So Erin appears to be in a long-duration replacement cycle. Some mentioning of shear might be the culprit. However, I don't agree with that assessment because these are relatively low values that shouldn't be enough to disrupt the process. We've seen these cycles complete with even moderate shear. I suspect the concentric band is just taking a long time to reach an intensity that would create enough subsidence to do the deed. These processes remain highly unpredictable, statistically, and quite chaotic, so it's really difficult to forecast how an EWRC will unfold with regard to time. Eventually, the outer band should strengthen enough to finish the cycle. But for now, it seems Erin is in a steady state, and the earlier abrupt rise in pressure has stabilized. Erin's RMI should continue to expand, and the hurricane should become quite large. Eventually, we should get a larger eye, and it may clear out. Though I don't think Erin will be able to reintensify enough to regain its peak intensity from Saturday. Especially considering that southwesterly shear should increase by Monday enough to keep it in check. It should still remain a Category 3 or 4 as it increases in size, however.