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Ah C’mon Candy, live a little! We go in the river all the time. Got to build up that immune system. It’s like George Carlin used to say, they never got sick as kids because they swam in the Brooklyn River haha. “We swam in sewage!”

how strong do you think it'll get

Started the month with a low of 62 with northeast winds that made it feel like the 50's. Love it.

Who cares. Off the top of my head, fall of 2007, 2010, 2016, 2017, and 2022 were torches up here and great winters.

Thanks, Don. Although the study ended by 2016 (date of article), I was curious about how the theory worked after 2016 for DJF NAO >+1: These are those 4 winters: 2017-8, 2019-20, 2021-2, 2023-4 2017: -2 H hits (AN): works -ACE: ~119 (way AN): works 2019: -2 H hits (AN): works -ACE: 60 (NN): no signal 2021: -1 H hit (NN): no signal -ACE: 75.3 (AN): works 2023: -1 H hit (NN): no signal -ACE: 76.1 (AN): works ———— Summary for these 4 2016+ >1 NAO -# of US H hits through 9/10: worked twice, no signal twice, and didn’t work zero times -ACE through 9/10: worked 3 times, no signal once, and didn’t work zero times -So, for NAO >1: despite not doing well pre-2016 and despite 2020 not working for H hits as the only 2016+ -NAO winter, 2016+ for NAO >1 did much better for both measures with none not working.

My monthly stats: Highest temp: 95 Lowest temp: 59 Highest dew point: 84 Lowest dew point: 58 Rainfall: 8.83"

All they did was show the NAO. Nowhere in that tweet did they say +NAO = warm in the east nor did they even mention temps. I’m not sure what the gripe is, it is in fact showing a +NAO and no it’s not showing big warmth either, which was my point, separate from their tweet. If the NAO is really going to be that positive, then you would need -EPO assistance on the PAC side to avoid warmth in the east, which it evidently has

Aren't we supposed to get 80 degree days? That's summer weather in my book.

August high 94.3, low 45.6. Rainfall total a whopping 0.82".

farther BN, quite possible. Lowest temps, maybe 5% chance. Avg for Aug 31 here 72/50. For Oct 16 it's 56/35. Temps are very unlikely to overcome the 10-15° (1st and 16th) drop in averages and verify the boldface.

Probably not. We could have an Octnodecufebrarch thread as well.

Ok I’m on board. This one should develop.

A few more weeks and the pond gets covered until early December so it doesnt fill up with leaves. Perpetual leaf fall and constant blowing/raking is almost upon us.

We didnt see extreme high temps here, but the warm muggy nights were placing the summer higher into the hottest summers list, but the last week of August was the 7th coldest on record for Detroit, plummeting the summer out of the top 20 hottest.

40.7 this morning....................... One 39 low not far away.

DEN finished the last 10 days of August with no high warmer than 84. The last time that happened was 1987.

? any different in the winter

Ive been saying since April 2014, we will never see another 2013-14 again in our lifetimes, referring to sensible weather. It wasnt just the snowiest winter on record. The combo of snow + cold + snow depth + wind had never been seen in the record era, and not even close.

BWI started off fall with a record low!

Started seeing some wave breaking activity right around the time we had the big cat 5 recurve with Erin a few weeks ago. So this helped to reinforce the cooler trough pattern in the East. It’s been nice having the trough in the Northeast from late August into early September following the record June and July heat. The record low pressure north of Alaska may have been a part of this pattern.

The September runs of CanSIPS and CFS monthly don’t look terrible for us. That’s a start!

Welcome to met. autumn! Please post your September of 2025 observations as well as other current or recent conditions at any location. Unlike the last 2 years, we lucked out in August. We’ll see whether we luck out again this month compared to last year’s horrible Helene. If any moderator sees this, please pin this and unpin the August 2025 obs thread.

Haven’t been here in about two weeks and good to know nothing has changed. Why exactly do we have separate monthly posts for each month during the warmer times of the year. Could just have one for Junulaugtember and we would be fine.

Unfortunately, that private company, despite their name, has got to find something on every model run to pimp their pov. Temp difference in the east between the 2 runs is negligible without a mention of it in their post.