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1-2” for most of SNE as modeled. Couid see 3-5” CC

Yeah I don’t really have the wow feel looking at the upcoming pattern. I think the 8-9 probably offers the best legit chance of something moderate or greater. I think once the PAC reshuffles, and we get more of a -EPO look that opens up the door more.

And once again the weenies cliff jumped too early. That’s 2 years in a row that the SER gets either can kicked or suppressed.

I have received about 9 inches total from Clippers this month - making December an above normal snowfall month

Seeing MRX(almost gleefully) this morning say that their forecast area had a 40-60% of being AN...after looking at that statement it got me to thinking. When is the last time that weather office has forecast a BN month for winter? We certainly have had those months, but when is the last time they have actually posted a BN forecast for the month. We went like 20 straight days with BN temps from Thanksgiving to mid-Dec, and barely a peep. Christmas goes warm...and their site is flooded with warm graphics. So, I want to know this...when is the last time they have forecasted a BN month for temps during winter? I am rarely critical of that office, but let's see how they caption December which "should" be within a few tenths of normal. Are we going to see lots of red and oranges for a few tenths of within normal? And after watching the GEFS flip cold after January 10th this morning...I hope they have to eat their shorts after that.

Speaking of changing ensembles, Gefs' 6z run just took a pretty big jump toward the Eps. End of 0z on top and 6z on bottom. Lol

What a quiet year and really stretch we have been in for the severe weather department. Although I did get that gustnado back in April which was cool. That September 6 event was pretty crazy though

As far as the sixth to the ninth goes, models took a big step back last night. Everything seemingly goes to the west and north or to the south and east of our area. That timeframe still looks good for a whole scale pattern change with a positive PNA spike over the west, which would lead to a trough and potential storm moving through the east. But unless the PNA spikes high enough, the storm will just glide out to sea, similar to several winter weather events from last winter. Seems like amplification can be a real problem in this pattern. Either way, that timeframe looks good for a pattern change, but it’s looking less good for a bigger snow event in our area. Overall, the timeframe looks pretty decent for us over here and it would be a shame if it did not produce because we don’t see many patterns set up like that during peak Climo.

23 here. Quite the whiplash from Saturday.

That's because the initial conditions are different each model cycle so the perturbation of those initial conditions among the ens members often results in somewhat different outcomes from one run to the next. The ensemble forecast is a 'check' on the higher res deterministic for that particular run- each ens run gives an indication of uncertainty(error in initial conditions) for that particular deterministic outcome, and so (especially at longer range) they will also reflect some differences from run to run. 8-10 days out I simply monitor the mean over a series of consecutive runs, and the outcome generally stays pretty consistent, depending on the model, number of members, etc. Anecdotally the Euro/EPS seems more consistent from one cycle to the next. That's my take and I am sure its not completely correct lol.

Poking around the resort cams this morning, I’m currently watching snow fall at Buckeye Lake near Beech Mtn. Thing is - these dendrites are super large. Like I truly don’t know if I’ve ever seen flakes that large with a temp of 11°. Anyone else seeing it at their location?

Light snow this morning with a solid coating. Snow shield is more expansive and further south then expected. Got down to 3F last night before temps started to slowly rise.

Nothing but a few flurries likely on New Year’s Day. The Clippers are more just like a dried out frontal passage until it reaches the Cape Cod area and then it can drop a few inches. Becoming less and less likely that there is any accumulation in these parts at all.

I woke to a new snowpack that basically in 24hr restored most of what I lost during the major rain and thaw . Intense LES band over me currently giving major vibes! Suppose to get 1-2" but hoping for more if we're going to be smothered in snow anyhow. I can't stop looking out the window at the pour

Updated map @cutlew

You’d think the weenies would be having a whine fest here after that run. I guess they got it out of their system yesterday.

Looks like 4th and 7, need to punt. Maybe the offense can matriculate down the field a bit more once we establish a solid - EPO in about 10-12 days.

Yeah if we get a major EPO ridge as advertised, we want a flat SE ridge to keep the storm track nearby.

Could definitely produce a few inches south of Boston if things break right

The atmosphere conserves energy for Maritime lows and cutters.....notice the Michigan bomb had no problem detonating....but then when something is near the east coast, the gradient and Hadley Cell are of a sudden prohibitive.

Yeah, at some point, we’d expect to congeal some sort of coherent signal, and that’s just not happening.

Step back at 00z hopefully we revert back positively for 12z

I know Kev loves his 2"ers...but at that cost? Rather see the ball drop on cracked, barren earth with my eyes peeled to explosive model runs.

My concern with the 8-10th period has been and will continue to be the lack of solutions showing storms. The means regressed significantly last night and even those had been driven by a couple members with a big storm vs a lot of members showing something or something close. It just hasn’t gathered much modeling support and in the 10-day timeframe you’d really want to at least start seeing ensemble support for a valid threat

I mentioned that yesterday. Looks like it could be a small event for se Mass and cape. I was more talking longer term potential. Definitely nothing imminent