All Activity

2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 Location: 26.1°N 72.5°W Moving: NNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 958 mb Max sustained: 105 mph

with variance due to climate change, I would argue that the large storms that do occur, even with lower frequency, would be bigger than the ones that we've classically seen. 2016 wouldn't have been quite as impactful 30 years ago

I suppose you can say that the Pacific jet helped the for parts of the MA and South then, which saw snowfall far above normal last winter

it isn't. last year is actually the best analog that i've found

Maybe your wife needs to check more closely.

Second day of drizzle/mist. I just want to cut the lawn!!! FFS.

Fine, I'll take one more day of legend-level temps.

Particularly impressive given its size.

That is a gutted storm right there. Nothing really showed that happening

I see nothing notable on the 12Z Euro regarding 99L. I don’t see any TC through at least 240 hours.

It’s a new moon on 22nd and when tides are agitated, that usually enhances them .

The system is still really far South and there’s plenty of OHC to be had. If the shear relaxes enough there could be another period of steady intensification tonight. The fact that the core was destroyed might actually be better off because it was never the same after the first EWRC and was headed towards that hollowed out tire mess.

if that asshole has any proxy in the matter, no one will survive the cold and flu season anyway

We just had the yard sprayed yesterday for ticks and skeeters. (Sorry Dendrite). I'd like to be disease free.

The core was essentially completely destroyed. Will be a little surprising to see it rebuild, but that convection is really impressive so we'll see.

Morning 50s next week

Do we get some rain tonight? I have barely accumulated a quarter of an inch this month. Seeing a lot of early leaf drop and grass looks worse than even last year.

12Z Euro hour 24 isn’t nearly as strong as the 919 mb of the 6Z as this run gets it down “only” to 945 and is WNW of the 6Z.

Throw in the exceptional amount of SAL for this time of year and it will be on the struggle bus for a spell.

I’m not sure but am thinking this 12Z UKMET might be for 99L: E of Bermuda moving NNE at the end: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 25.7N 64.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 24.08.2025 120 26.9N 63.9W 1012 34 0000UTC 25.08.2025 132 29.9N 63.3W 1012 30 1200UTC 25.08.2025 144 32.0N 62.6W 1012 28 0000UTC 26.08.2025 156 34.8N 61.8W 1013 28 1200UTC 26.08.2025 168 37.5N 60.9W 1013 29

As others have said, I’m a little surprised that model support has waned on this system. It seemed to be in a moist pocket and shear seemed manageable. I do wonder if models are now catching onto the pronounced outflow from Erin as a source of shear that affects this system. It could be one that doesn’t get going until Erin moves away. Also, guidance has continued to trend more towards this system moving north through the same break Erin is traveling through. The chances of an east coast impact seem to be diminishing

That is lot of SAL for this time of year. WOW!

12Z UKMET: like the 0Z this run restrengthens Erin to a peak Thu evening off NC, but by not as much as it gets down to 947 vs 928 on the 0Z: HURRICANE ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 72.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.08.2025 0 25.3N 72.1W 961 79 0000UTC 20.08.2025 12 27.0N 73.1W 960 71 1200UTC 20.08.2025 24 29.0N 73.8W 954 83 0000UTC 21.08.2025 36 31.7N 74.0W 950 84 1200UTC 21.08.2025 48 34.1N 73.1W 949 81 0000UTC 22.08.2025 60 36.1N 70.7W 947 76