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Yes.

Even as a La Niña event is in its formative stages following a neutral-cool/borderline La Niña winter, 2025's global temperatures remain stubbornly warm. The September 1-10 period ranked as the third warmest (ERA-5 dataset). It was 0.10°C warmer than the fourth place 2020.

If you view the dailies from the dates of major storms, the PNA ridge is centred just off of the west coast. I don't care how fast the PAC jet is, that wouldn't have worked out in 1852. I do agree that PAC jet has been an issue in general, as it makes it more difficult to time the palcement of the PNA ridge correctly, and for it not to fold too quickly. Here is a prime example from last winter of the Pacific jet undercutting a +PNA ridge and this tilting it positively, leading to a failed phase attempt on the east coast.

i mean we still probably will get a good period of HL blocking w/ -EPO and +PNA its just that theres going to be more SER (especially before/after good periods) with a more developed nina since -QBO relates to more active MJO

Yeah maybe although lanternflies don’t exactly fly gracefully to my eye lol

I have to assume the cicadas didn’t get high enough, being fat and clumsy. Not sure how high the lantern flies can go, but it seems to be high enough.

I have been discussing this for a while now. The rapid expansion of the mid-latitude ridging has been altering the way that the higher latitude teleconnections have been occurring relative to the past. We have also been seeing a much faster Pacific Jet with the record mid-latitude SSTs under these expanding ridges.

+QBO causes the tropical tropopause to stabilize which makes convection focus further off the equator which shifts the pattern more poleward, -QBO would have more active MJO(in general) but more focused on the equator

Closing in on a month of dry here, only 1/10" since 8/18. Everything started getting crunchy this week. Hail Mary conditional chance for a little training overnight/tomorrow morning, but if that doesn't manifest gonna get into the yellow on the drought map. Last several GFS runs showing a low breaking the ridge down next weekend but then has it coming back after, Euro isn't biting, ridge in place to the end. That early taste of fall might be all she wrote until October.

That was a pretty good storm out in the Garrett County area as well. I ended up with exactly a foot.

Foggy morning, with a batch of shwrs/stms moving across N MN. Might see something later.

How can you be sure of the reliable influence of any teleconnection these days if they can just be nullified by some unseen pattern against all prior correlations?

That information is available: Drought Classification | U.S. Drought Monitor D0 corresponds to indices in the 20th to 30th percentile, meaning any given week, on average, about 3 in 10 years should be at least "abnormally dry." Over the course of the year (52 weeks), the recurrence for at least some period of D0 or worse during the course of the year is probably like once every 2 years (given that the weekly percentile is nearly 1 in 3). It's not particularly rare.

It was November 22nd and a more typical storm. Snow mixed in around nova for an hour or two before rain, I think the only places with real accumulations was Mount PSU (4in I think) and the catoctins (where I went ~6in).

That the weather is f'd up?

It's OK, thanks. I usually go to Jay Peak or somewhere way north. Til then...

Green Bay's defense is absolutely ferocious now after the gift of getting Parsons. Add in short week and Green Bay being at home and it was a really very very hard task for Washington. Washington did much better than Detroit did last Sunday fwiw going up there - and on shorter turnaround.

You know, I swear I posted (tongue in cheek) that this was good as I'd just washed my Jeep, but I don't see it. Maybe I forgot to hit the post button. Maybe it was removed for some reason. If it was removed, I don't know why. I was just funnin' for laughs...

It was mostly that the +PNA was getting undercut by the very fast Pacific Jet. The composite below is for the heaviest precipitation days last winter from Philly to Boston. The energy diving into the trough to our west during the storms pumped the Southeast ridge allowing the wettest storms to cut to our west.

Agree 100%. I have come across quite a few hot summers and mild, snowless winters from the 1800s-1860s, but with lack of official records, they are never looked at beyond what minimal info there is.

Plenty to do and talk about, What a great stretch of fall weather, Dry but comfortable to get chores done.

No offense bro but thank god you’re not running the team. Jalen Carter is a generational DT talent. You don’t give those away. Not to mention safety is one of the lowest positional values in the league. You’re not getting a player of Carter’s caliber back even if you got 10 first rounders. That’s why I laugh at what GB paid for Parsons. That is absolutely nothing for a generational pass rusher. They don’t grow on trees and they aren’t available every draft. There is no trade of Jalen Carter that doesn’t make the team significantly worse.

Last fall repeat and ngl im here for it. Endless sunny and 70’s days and low 50/upper 40 nights. Let’s keep this going until about mid November.

A Steining to remember.

I played there years ago for a friend's bachelor party. I'd like to go back, I remember it as being a nice course.