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Record chill possible Wednesday morning at at least 15 sites below

I just looked at other 12Z ops and there’s actually the same general idea of a LL circ forming just off Africa within 6 days from these 12Z models: Euro, CMC, Icon, JMA, and UKMET. The GFS is about the only major op that has virtually nothing. Hmmmm. 12Z UKMET for example has a TD from right off of Africa moving WSW. When I first saw this on the UKMET, I figured it was likely going to end up as a ghost since I thought it was the only op with it. But then I saw the other models and am now wondering. 12Z UKMET: EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 17.6N 17.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 31.08.2025 132 17.6N 17.6W 1010 25 1200UTC 31.08.2025 144 17.3N 19.7W 1010 24 0000UTC 01.09.2025 156 17.2N 22.2W 1011 23 1200UTC 01.09.2025 168 16.7N 25.6W 1012 25

You can dub one and get 200 yards with the current state if fairways.

Coc k s drowning.. cackling for air. Wells full for Dendy !

So now we’re screwed for the rest of the week until the next fail front on Friday. The next 2 weeks look .

Been awful dry, Have not mowed in 3 weeks, Lawn is toast.

I usually put down straw to help lock in moisture and protect the seed if the area is big enough. EZ straw works well for small areas, stuff sticks like glue.

83, low dew, wish this was yesterdays weather instead of mostly clouds.

My well is taking hours to fully fill right now after a load of laundry. Give me 3” of rain. Got 0.01” out of this.

What if I told you Dec 2020 band redux awaits?

surgical precision here. what looked like a promising line split in 2 well before showing up here. Typical. i have tons of yard work planned for Friday, but long-ish range forecast is showing ~50% chance of rain here. Based on how this summer has gone, i am not worried about it.

Hopefully the quarter inch+ gives it a little life back.

Yup getting Steined. A little slight shower. Meh. Webbed hands. Can’t believe I’m stressing over yellow and orange pixels, but he has broken me down.

The main issue is how dry it has been. Newark is currently close to 90° on a dry downslope flow behind the cold front. It will get cooler again over the next week. Last year Newark only made it to 87° in September. So it hasn’t had two consecutive Septembers not reaching 90° since 2003 and 2004. So when the ridge returns in September, it wouldn’t take much for the warm spots like Newark to reach 90°.

actually I'm halfway in between I-225 and Centennial Airport, where the blue dot is in this radar image from a few weeks ago. In the little finger of D2 drought on the map just SE of Denver. We did pick up another 0.11" early this morning, so that's good.

IDK if the ‘danger’ has passed but we made it up to 89.1 (highest this month) and have since fallen to around 86

I know we need rain, but...holy wow what a day. 84 downtown Balt just now when stepped out - winds out of the NW - no humidity. Fluffy cloud warning in effect.

The dewpoint is all the way down to 49 here now, as we begin the long low humidity stretch. 86 degrees.

I ran a search of the thread to make sure I didn’t already say all this, but I noticed the whole earthquake day showed the difference between Baltimore and Washington, (and probably Richmond). I was working in Catonsville back then and commuted past BWI to get home, so listened to the Baltimore traffic report on maybe 98Rock radio, and recall Dave Sandler saying that there wasn’t much traffic today, because after the quake many workers went home, and everything was sort of winding down at 5:30 or so. Meanwhile, I wanted to listen to Redskins radio on 980am so changed stations, and Steve Czaban (a jokester) was wailing about how we’ve had a terrible earthquake and the Beltway is stopped, and the Metro is not running, and phones are not calling, and all of D.C. is a mess. I really, really, thought he was making his sarcastic jokes. Then as time went on, looking at the traffic map, and talking to people who were there, I realized he was not joking. As an old guy who has worked in both Washington and Baltimore I can tell you there are certain differences to both urban areas, but the earthquake day was the biggest. In some minor defense of D.C., I think the quake was worse there, but it was quite significant in Baltimore too.

Yeah you know the heat will come back. It's too early for it to stay comfortable for the rest of the season. Euro and GFS both show 90 degree weather coming back around the 4th of September. I think we're done with the extreme 95 to 100 degree heat, but we'll see low 90s again. Before then though this is going to be a spectacular stretch of weather for the next 8 or 9 days.

Congrats on a few red pixels

-RA Will be lucky to get 0.01” from this. Hopefully CON misses this and finishes with 2 tenths.

The wave was designated with medium probabilities but was lowered as it never really became organized and is moving into a more hostile environment. It's listed with 0% because the 8 AM update lowered it from either 10% to 0%...that's why it was still listed.

I think it's a fairly easy call for above average overall. For me, the Caribbean and SW Atlantic are the places to be though the Gulf will get theirs. Well this invest survived longer than any of the models expected, but the graveyard got it.

I can see where the numbers come from, but I'm guessing that with an active back half of September that projection will change. I don't see sub 140 ACE, but I also don't think we're rocketing toward hyperactive ACE either. I'd probably lean around 150. Kind of agree on the 3+ H strikes, considering that I think this is an EC, not Gulf favored year. That in it of itself suggests fewer than 3 strikes. With us being where we are and my peak season forecast at 10/6/3, I'm thinking we're probably around 15/7/4 to end the season. All I care about is my peak season forecast though.