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Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy rainfall are expected once again today through early tonight.

There will absolutely be more thunderstorms over the winter than we saw all summer. Guaranteed

It seems NE of New York City this summer ... we rain just fine synoptically, as we've had three definitive events each raining pan-regionally 1.5 to 3" ( yes with some exceptions in either direction). Anything remotely related to convection has result in either less, or not at all...depending on one's specific location. This is just going from memory and being a weather dweeb and always paying attention to what's going on.. so, taken fwiw I have only had one direct thunderstorm at my location. It occurred when I was away on vacation. Otherwise, ...nadda. I realize this region of the continent does appear challenged for convection - certainly there is a grousing/commiserating support group mentality going on in this social media over the matter ( jesus -). But relative to our climatology, nadda is an exceptionally low result even for SNE summer - both by numbers and anecdotally. I can honestly say, I've never seen that in the 45 years I've been a New Englander. I actually have a high confidence understanding as to why this took place, but if the orbit of the moon is the extent of the average reader's attention span or even will to use the energy to read in here, that explanation is unfortunately out near the orbit of Pluto...

Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 242 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-040400- /O.NEW.KCTP.FA.A.0016.260903T0642Z-260904T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Altoona, Johnstown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Lancaster, Philipsburg, Berwick, Wellsboro, Williamsport, Danville, DuBois, Lewistown, Huntingdon, Sunbury, Bloomsburg, Newport, Renovo, Lewisburg, Bradford, Mount Union, St. Marys, McConnellsburg, Mansfield, Selinsgrove, Harrisburg, Hershey, Warren, Gettysburg, Shamokin, Pottsville, Coudersport, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Emporium, York, Trout Run, Laporte, Clearfield, Bedford, Ridgway, Lebanon, State College, and Carlisle 242 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cameron, Clearfield, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Elk, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, McKean, Mifflin, Montour, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Perry, Potter, Schuylkill, Snyder, Somerset, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, Warren and York. * WHEN...Through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional, multiple rounds of heavy rain from thunderstorms will create the threat for flash flooding of streams, creeks and poor drainage areas today through early tonight. Rainfall rates could exceed 3 inches per hour where several storms track east-southeast across the same locations. There should be a lull in the rain for several hours during the late morning and early afternoon hours today, before the thunderstorms greatly increase in number once again across Central Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna Valley. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Please monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. &&

At least we can watch the OV get their 25th derecho of the season. Wiz, get a new hobby.

Do you mean the actual model data, or just the bogus tropical tidbits output?

I had 1.34” from the storms last night. I feel like we’ve been dry for a few summers in August and September, but not this year. .

I had 1.34” from the storms last night. I feel like we’ve been dry for a few summers in August and September, but not this year. .

What do you mean, a ridge extending down from the arctic through the west coast, rather than a more traidtional, El Nino-forced PNA ridge?

Key to all these is RI or last minute organization right before LF. Great examples. I think S FL gets some brown ocean effect simply due to the swampiness/ever present water of that part of the state. Wilma and Katrina are other examples of storms that did not weaken over S FL.

Bad luck. 0.53 in no time.

1.89” over the last 24 hours, 2.33” for the month already.

Were you predicting -PNA for the season, though? What you are referring to is simply misinterpretation of a seasonal chart....I recall someone was telling me that the PNA would average negative. Anyway, NBD...I wasn't trying to call anyone out.

My interpretation of that is volatility.....biased + first half, neutralish to perhaps even somewhat negative second half.....but AO should be negative.

Well can’t even get .25” . Webbed hands and his sack all over my face.

49 for the overnight low here... 40 at the yellow dog. Looks like another nice day with only a slight chance of showers tonight and tomorrow. Endless string of 70's in the forecast.

some rain last night, great for sleeping, windows open currently 63/62, looks like AC season may be over

Stay warm and dry through November for all i care then snap that rubber band for December through February

Wouldn't mind warm and dry (read: not humid) September and October at this point. Soupy October is the worst

Appears to be some rain headed this way will it be a nickle or a dime?

congrats FMH, again

Following the warmest August and warmest month on record in the ERA-5 dataset, September 1 started with a global mean temperature of 16.739C. That destroyed the monthly record of 16.607C from September 1, 2024. The preliminary 0.132C difference between the new mark and the old record is the largest difference between any first and second highest monthly values.

.55” yesterday .60” from this morning’s storms