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Cards are stacked against us. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no

I'm not basing it on a 15 day model...and yes, I've locked it in as it pertains to the seasonal mean.

73.5"...probably low 80s IMBY now

"It only takes one storm....." in 3, 2, 1.......

All -NAO would do is grind these waves. That modeled pattern is perfect.

Yeah probably some good chasing opportunities.

People should just keep expectations neutral and view everything within the broader context of where we've been the last 8 years and what enso state we're in and go from there--instead of going up and down with the LR modeling and the inevitable chaos of tracking an actual threat.

It was, and I went over the lawn one last time...all set for the SWFEs.

Emotional hires never work out well, and I love Terry as much as anyone. But also, We Are!!!

More than just the AI.

We ought to run a casino, over when Austin FINALLY EVER has a normal high temp of 65, if ever! I am willing to bet we never have highs here in the 50s, until December 2026! This is a massive Nina, and Texas is going to be boiling HOT all winter. It's obvious we are above normal all the time, with occasional 1-2 day cooldowns to 10 degrees above normal. This is concerning, because what it all means is a category 5 drought leading into Summer 2026 then super high temps appropriate to late stage global warming. We have had many overnight lows warmer than our normal average high temperatures. It is difficult to comprehend that our normal high temperature is now 65 degrees, and that our normal low is only 47. That sounds like New England weather, compared to what we have been dealing with since mid February this year. We'll have a semi permanent high pressure over the American Southwest from today well into most of 2026 maybe even 2027. This will mean that the Eastern Seaboard will be far colder than normal this winter and why many of our snowfall forecasts for Washington DC will turn out to be ridiculously conservative. We had a cold front last night. Yep. high was 76. We are always well above normal temperature wise, and extremely below normal rain wise. This is the hallmark of a Nina in the south and southwest. Better look out Eastern US. You are gonna freeze this winter amidst numerous blizzards!

That was a wild month. 12/20 was the big norlun…14” here

Look at this. Get rid of all the unnecessary shit at the line, all the stupid shifts and focus on blocking, running, and passing, and the offense looks damned good. James Franklin can go straight to Hell for ruining this season. Straight to Hell.

Lay that base down

Definitely!

Everything is fine

And the lake effect belts should be in for a fun time with the waters still being pretty warm

Music to the ears, that was a good look and result, pic was 12/22/2007:

Do you know how hard it is for the EPS to show such a negative anomaly in the long range with our background state?

I think he used to?

Models/ensembles have Colorado down near 0 degrees on Dec 1st.

I always thought Ed with the Uggs lived near Albany

Remove the interim tag at halftime.

Euro AI ENS. Looks about the same as the EPS. Pretty cold look towards the end of the first week of of Dec. Snow? Not very likely outside of the western highlands, but a positive start to met winter if it verifies..

I have a c1795 house, replaced shingled roof with all metal in fall of 2021. and I'm having gutters installed all around. With the right (strong) debris filter included and stout anchors, the better installers can mitigate risk of sliding snow or ice even with metal roofing. It's not just about driplines, I've replaced half a dozen sills on windows, two doors needed new thresholds and trim, and multiple clapboards - all due to water damage from years of 'splash-up' water coming off the roof. In a strong downpour there's no way to avoid this damage without gutters catching the water up high. It WILL rot any wood that it contacts, and it doesn't take long. If you value your sills, including sill plates of your foundation, unless they're pressure treated or vinyl/plastic - get gutters. If you don't, your doors, trim, and sills will eventually fall prey to water splashing up from a dripline - even mulch or crushed stone won't eliminate it in a heavy downpour.