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Through 2018, just only 2005 (5th hottest at the time) and 2015 (9th hottest at the time) ranked among Texas' ten hottest Septembers on record. The monthly mark of 80.7° from 1911 stood at the top, challenged only by 1931 (80.5°). All other years were more than 0.5° or more cooler. Then, in 2019, Texas recorded a monthly average temperature of 81.5°. Four years later, that mark was eclipsed with an 81.8° average. Preliminary data suggests that 2026 smashed the 2023 record, potentially by more than 1°. Preliminary Texas September Anomalies: Numerous cities established monthly records in Texas. Some stations set new records by large margins. Brownsville registered its third warmest month on record, less than 0.1° cooler than August 2026, which ranked second. McAllen, powered by a record stretch of 100° days, which reached 70 days on September 30th, experienced its second warmest month on record. Brownsville rewrote large parts of its September record book. It even tied its all-time record high minimum temperature of 85° on September 13th and then again on September 30th. Prior to 2026, Brownsville's latest 85° minimum temperature occurred on August 6, 1896. 2026 also became the first year with two such low temperatures. Brownsville also recorded its hottest two-month and three-month periods on record: 2-Month: August-September 2026: 89.8° (old record: July-August 2023: 89.4°) 3- Month: July-September 2026: 89.3° (old record: July-September 2023: 89.1°)

The +NAO strengthened thru mid October on all the ensembles last night fwiw.

Woof. Guess I'll pack my winter gear.

Looking like first frost/freeze potential next week west of BR

If I can get one (1) rumble of thunder today that would be cool

I generally agree but you are mentioning one of the closest analog periods to the last 10 years in terms of the longwave pacific and atlantic patterns. Actually the pattern if you just look at the h5 means for the early to mid 1970s was even worse! And if you look at the numbers you'll see we have done about 15% WORSE now wrt snowfall. This trend is evident in high snowfall periods also, the last favorable period was slightly less favorable then previous ones. So our current crappy pattern cycle is the bigger issue...but mixed within that is the fact that the background state for snow is degrading also.

It’s had the hot hand…hard to bet against it currently, right?

Please, please win tonight. I have tickets to the Division Series, NLCS and World Series. I'd like to get down to at least 1 or 2 more games. I'm ready for the weekend. 80s in October are no bueno to me. But, it's to be expected, so there's that.

I ended the month at about 15mm/.65". TWN did write up about the dry streak mainly on YYZ. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/forecasts/ontarios-weeks-long-dry-streak-continues-but-tropical-moisture-lurks

I think it's probably a good bet that winter will average out AN. Certainly warmer than last winter was, unfortunately. Hopefully we can time up the southern jet stream with temps "just cold enough" to bury us in white gold at some point. Also - we still have a hummingbird in our back yard!!!

AIFS says no warmth

Well this past weekends system(flow) certainly wasn’t moving fast at all. Too Many nuances and intricacies relative to any future particular system, to say definitively imo.

Even that may be in trouble in a couple hours. Not sure interpretation of the model -suggested clouds is correct, or if the models themselves are erroring too optimistic but I'd go under MOS with that satellite look in SNE.

You will soon. They’re coming

Some showers moving through

Unless it is Sunday... then it is 100% chance of rain.

No... The house was starting to get dank.

Coin flip!

GWDLT

Another cloudy day that was forecast sunny .visible is ass