All Activity

With the beginning of fall, average highs now dip into the 70s. Actual temperatures will soon comply.

And on the PAC side, this -PDO cycle has been much stronger than the last one (1940’s-1970’s). I’ve seen a few articles blaming the record low arctic sea ice on this -PDO cycle

Near Shirlington… my job is a Physical Scientist Federal Contractor supporting NWS Upper-Air.

Wildfire smoke is having an increasing US health impact. Likely also cooling our summers. https://bsky.app/profile/shannonosaka.bsky.social/post/3lz4nvt3eqc2f https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09611-w#Sec4

looks like the drought is over looking at the 0z models

Nooooo! Looks like I’d have to reformat the links but I gotta get up early for work! I’ll do it later!

An extract from Maue’s newsletter: Two more areas being watched by NHC including a new 30% yellow hatchling based upon ensemble guidance from the A.I. models. The 60% orange will be our next Invest and likely to develop into Humberto in next 5-7 days. Models also show it becoming a major hurricane on a similar course as Gabrielle. ECMWF 12-Days Integrated Vapor Transport | 12z cycle Flagship model ECMWF 12z now develops Humberto north of the Caribbean in 5-6 days … but not seeing the yellow hatchling catching fire (NHC 20%) Atlantic Satellite Imagery | Infrared NOAA Tropical Surface Analysis | 12z Sea Surface Temperature + Anomaly | ECMWF 12z Analysis Anomalously warm water centered upon Bermuda ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble | All Cyclone Tracks Through 7-days ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble | All Cyclone Tracks Through 12-days I see Humberto — and there are a few more tracks that randomly extend westward presumably from a leftover tropical wave — but low chances < 10% ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble | All Cyclone Tracks Through 15-days Gabrielle and Humberto but small chance of something else (< 10%) through 15-days (October 6) AIFS-ENS Comparison at 12z | All tracks at Day 7 The A.I. trained ensembles also show Humberto … and if we look at the MSLP contours at Day 10 — a bunch of members show a TS or Hurricane from the Gulf to Bahamas. AIFS-ENS Comparison at 12z | All tracks at Day 12 Meanwhile — AIFS blows up more member tracks w/ TS/Hurricane west of Humberto in the Gulf and out of the Caribbean AIFS-ENS Comparison at 12z | Active Tracks at Day 15

Model runs have this taking a similar path to Gabby, but at a higher intensity. https://weather.substack.com/p/september-21-2025-sunday-hurricane

Major is indicated for the mandarin according to model guidance https://weather.substack.com/p/september-21-2025-sunday-hurricane

It may be starting to take off with deep convection now wrapping fully around the center. It has a narrow window before environmental conditions become more hostile but the once anemic Gabby may put on a show before the curtain falls.

It’s a spectacular system

Gfs

Ragasa's massive eye takes up almost an entire degree of latitude and longitude

49.9. Chilly morning incoming

That would be a nice repeat around here. Record cold and snow late November with average Snowfall the rest of Winter. The following Winter was horrendous as we all know. Only significant Snowfall (greater than 4") was in March.

A lot of that is just stupid…the early Sep dots in the Mid Atlantic….Nov dots in NNE.

Yeah, and those cold waters around Newfoundland. The West Pac is once again looking like a Thorn . So, rather competing Driver's. There'll probably be a large area of Ridging in the entire North Pacific this Winter. Probably will be shifting of the main core from West to East occasionally, or a split. Hopefully, we can keep decent ridging in the NEPAC and into AK and Yukon from the NEPAC warm SST'S. That is if you are Winter Wx Lover's. There should be blocking Episodes due to the cold pool around Newfoundland being conducive for 50-50 LP hangout there. QBO is a Mystery component this Winter imo. Up for debate since the SST Configuration and ENSO Status may alter it's affect one way or the other. Solar Flares and Sunspots may play a Role as well.

Wound up with almost a half iinch here today. A Station just east of Sneedville recorded 3.17 inches !

Euro is also a step to the gfs

Scored two thunderstorms within a couple hours of each other tonight. Best rains were west and south of me but I still managed about 3/4 of an inch.

Happy Birthday

I made this graph last year, it's a smoothed out AMO index since it went positive in 1995. It appears that we still seem to be in a rising phase, over the long term. Also, the NAO has been very positive May-Aug, just like last year. Such +NAO in the warm season has a -0.3 SSTA correlation in the south-central Atlantic. A lot of the cool water this year is because of such a strong +NAO... It's been positive 8 of the last 9 months. If the NAO had been negative 8/9 months, you'd be seeing some very warm SSTAs in the Tropical Atlantic, and probably more activity this hurricane season.