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Not that young Kev

Happy hour weenie run. What torch? Looks like the models are going to ruin another Christmas day with my family.

Hey-if that holds we’re good to go. Hopefully that’s real.

That's been the case for at least the last 5 or 6 years on the coast. I can't remember a period of poor snow growth during daylight hours as bad as this. Epic sublimation.

Ryan maue said that there is cold air we haven't seen in over 1,000 years developing in nw Canada and Alaska. Bold statement lol. There are subtle hints of it getting unleashed, but it's still early. Hope it does come down and further west for better chance at winter weather down the line instead of dry nw flow

I don't know. I think we'd still find a way to argue about it!

He seems to be . Think he’s young but he’s well respected in the industry . Lots of great Mets on Twitter if you know who to follow.

8" of sleet on 18z GFS. lol

The MJO’s 3rd phase 8 period of the month ended on 12/20, when it went into phase 7. So far this month there have been three phase 8 periods: - Dec 3-7 - Dec 15 - Dec 17-19 Will there be more?

there is a nearly 3 sigma -NAO developing as this system moves in, so I would argue that blocking is indeed very strong

Especially after the Grinch tried and almost was successful in stealing our forum joy a few days ago

36 degrees with 22 dew point in West Hanover Township. Not expecting much.

How did the 18z Euro AI & GFS AI trend for us for Friday?

He’s one of the best. That’s a great thread.

Thankfully Mt. Holly has a very good discussion for the Friday potential… LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Beyond Christmas Day, forecast uncertainty becomes very high. Guidance indicates there will be a high over eastern or southeastern Canada with low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes and toward the Northeast or Mid Atlantic. This setup will likely bring widespread precipitation to our area. The more recent trends over the last few runs from guidance has resulted in significant changes to the forecast. The main reason is a much stronger high that suppresses a weaker low. This trend keeps much of our area in a setup for colder air to remain in place thanks to the stronger high to the north. A more suppressed and southern track of this low keeps widespread precipitation for the area but also prevents a lot of the warm air advection from getting into the region. The updated forecast now has highs on Friday in the mid to upper 30s for the I- 95 corridor and west with mid to upper 20s in the Poconos. Areas south and east of the I-95 corridor have highs in the low to mid 40s. Wintry precipitation is now the result for much of the area for at least part of the timeframe from daybreak Friday into Saturday. Mixed precipitation may make it as far south as parts of Delmarva.

If there is a general 1”-2” across most of SNE folks should count their blessings. At least it will look festive and maybe we can cash in over the next 10 days after that.

I’d much rather be in your hood for this. Truthfully

Why do you think the models trended south with this? Blocking. AI Euro Ensembles suggest a suppression risk .

Fwiw, Nam is the coldest of it, the Euro and Gfs. Euro is a little cooler than half way between the other 2. That's as of 84hrs on the 18z runs.

I’m not sure what CTP is thinking for Friday, but they have not updated their forecast discussion at all in the long range portion. They updated their point & click grids this afternoon as a few folks mentioned, but they still aren’t addressing the growing concern for Wintry weather on Friday, which again will be a major travel day for many.

Good luck up there. You should get an inch maybe? I haven't looked that closely at tonight as I knew I was in line for a participation trophy at best.

Is this Tomer any good? Does he know his stuff?

https://x.com/burgwx/status/2003254205935681822?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

MDT & Lancaster airport are both down to 31 degrees this hour with dew points in the low 20s at MDT & high teens in Lanco. Precip at least aloft has broken out in western PA.