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You might just need some drugs lmao

Should be quite a deformation band way west with this. Congrats Southbury

DC has fallen. .

They aren't that different at the surface though - same with the ICON (and probably the Euro once it comes out). The GFS tucks the low in closer to land (in fact over land) and ramps up earlier. The CMC is 15 mb weaker at 90 hr, and 100 miles SE of the GFS. By hour 102 the CMC is about 5 mb stronger and maybe 75 miles or less apart. Its just the timing that makes the difference. Similar with the ICON. By the time they really ramp up, they are south of Maine. Its just that those differences of 12 hours in when the various parts that will make this system bomb out come together are super meaningful to weather we see a historic blizzard or nothing.

Relax. DC may not even get near that if gfs is off. I would not say sucked, but definitely frustrating moments. Plenty of snow and snowpack so far.

Just waiting for the “I lost 36” from 12z” this afternoon at about 5pm.

Holy shit, I legit rolled a nat 20. No joke.

you might be joking but.. yeah, 100%.

This is following, quite literally, the same progression we’ve seen from all these systems this year. some mid range waffling, but ultimately, there was never real support. Just enough to waste everyone’s time for 3-4 days, before it finally slowly vanishes under 100 hours

I mean half that amount and we are shitting ourselves. the problem seems to be things never take just a step back at this late juncture. they fall down the stairs with grandma's old china and the storm is 300miles off OBX at 18z. 11th hour fails are our specialty as you know. but man...jesus...filthy is really the only word that fits

In progress! @HighStakes had a post about this earlier. We have access to a lot of other models than the gfs... we just need the GFS to get fixed

Or it's going to score the biggest coup in weather model history...lol

The changes start early on the Models... so it would not take much for the other models to follow suit... or for the GFS to fall apart.

Ready for spring in some with tracking after this, feel like tracking has just been getting worse and worse this winter lol

A Nacho and at least three red-tags.

Ji isn't here because he's on FB

You literally said cmc looks like crap just before he posted it looks crappy...

I’ll be surprised if anyone south of the pike sees more than an inch. Maybe someone lucky gets 2” of slop. Hope people enjoy it, because the mechanism that’s “helping” this system, is part of the reason we’re going to whiff the coastal

what a winter out on the Cape and esp. ACK. congrats

Just out of hernia surgery. 12z suxxx, sans GFS Maybe I won't have to shovel though

Attenuation. Heard that word a lot this season.

Happy chooks today

The GFS needs massive investments since it’s a national security problem being this inaccurate at such short ranges

The GFS needs some better support outside of it's own ensemble suite. I'm inclined to lean against it without that support.

At this point, regardless of trends, I'm leaning towards the ECMWF/UKMET and their ensembles (graze/OTS)... Especially since they're both near misses at the moment and the CMC backtracked a little bit. No matter what I analyze in terms of evaluations (fields, isobaric surface, space, and time), the GFS performs comparably to the CMC and JMA. The ECMWF and UKMET are 1 and 2, respectively. Maybe the UKMET went to rehab over the past few decades and became an accomplished businessman?