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Very interesting. I think we need to separate the top half and bottom half for "max" and "min". Within that, we assign a +0-9 year lead for best predicted NAO state. For example: If year 2000-2009 is Solar Min with 2004 Solar Min peak (not really data, I am just making an example), we are saying +0-9 years makes 2004-2013 the highest probability for -NAO. I think 2024 was the peak for this Solar Max (correct me if I'm wrong), so we're saying the tendency is for 2024-2033 to be highest likelihood for +NAO, since the next 4-5 years will be declining, but still in the top half, most likely. It is only 1 year before the next Solar Cycle peaks (so coming Solar Min peak) before the NAO tendency actually changes from previous Solar Max peak! Edit: I see 11 years is for the whole cycle to circulate, not to go from one to the other.. so it's just a +NAO tendency until 1 year before coming Solar Min peak, which your research is saying 6-7 years after Solar Max peak, so 2030-2031.. +NAO tendency until ~2029-2030

Chuck, If you’d look real closely at the cycles, you’d actually see that the average length from min to max is significantly shorter than that for max to min: Cycle: Min to Max (years)/Max to Min (years) 1: 6/5 2: 3/6 3: 3/6 4: 3/11 5: 6/6 6: 6/7 7: 7/3 8: 4/6 9: 5/8 10: 4/7 11: 3/8 12: 5/6 13: 4/8 14: 4/8 15: 4/6 16: 5/5 17: 4/7 18: 3/7 19: 3/7 20: 4/8 21: 3/7 22: 3/7 23: 4/8 24: 6/5 (25: likely 5/?) Avg of 1-24: 4.3/6.8 % of cycles with shorter rise than fall: 79% % with opposite only 13% —————— Aside: -% with 11 year cycle only 25% though 11 is the average; 29% had 10 year (the mode) -Range 9-14 -Next min very likely within 2030-32. https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_y_tot_V2.0.txt

Today's highs Downtown LA - 91 Long Beach - 89 LAX - 71

I got 0.26" here. This after getting only 0.75" from that Thursday through Sunday wet period. My area keeps missing out on the big rain totals, but at least it has been enough to water the vegetable garden over the last week. My tomatoes are growing very quickly.

You can do "lags" and "leads" A lead is the index comes first.. +1-24 months A lag is the 500mb composite comes before the index.. -1-24 months So -24 months is 2 years before a Solar Max There is actually a -NAO signal at -24 months -12 months before.. transitioning to Neutral So since Solar cycles are almost perfectly cyclical, there is actually a +correlation all the way until 1 year before the next Solar peak (Min or Max)! So if the average cycle is 11 years, that's a 0 to +9 year NAO correlation composite

You lost me with the bolded.

I think you get it. If Min = -NAO = +2. If Max = +NAO = +2. If Min = +NAO = -2, If Max =+NAO = +2, so the 2nd set would be "0", and the first set "+4". It's too bad it doesn't go out further. I've tried several times, hoping they would update. It's a 73-year base period, so there is not that much data cut off going out +3-4 years. To do the full 11 years, it would have to be manual, but you can see what NAO state is favored 1-2 years before a Solar Max/Min event at least (weaker overall correlation)

Thanks. 1) So, for the 6 years, is this correct going from the most -NAO to the most +NAO? min+2 min +1 min max max +1 max +2 2) It’s too bad we can’t see the other 5 years of the 11 year average cycle. But with cycles’ length differing cycle to cycle as opposed to always being 11 yrs, perhaps it would be less useful to go out 3-5 years from max.

Nice? 0.35" or > @BDL 6 of the first 9 days including over an inch twice and only 2 of 9 days without measurable rain. Beer?

I looked at an apartment in Bristol yesterday and it was a dump lol. Couldnt believe how congested it is on West St. Hope the place you're at doesn't suck.

Sitting at 1.6" for the day. On both Sunday and yesterday we had some of the heaviest downpours in quite some time, at least since any convection last summer. From Sunday through today, I'm at almost 5 inches, I think we're good for a bit.

To bluewave's point, here is the following Winter +1 year after a +PNA December December +12 months January +13 months February +14 months Somewhat of a signal there for warmer than average temps in the eastern 1/2. I didn't sort it out by negative ENSO, but the general gives you a lot more data points. It's on ok signal (ENSO usually changes state the year after a relative PNA Winter, which I will say again is interesting. It's counter-intuitive)

Solar Min is included in the maps. It's Max minus Min If the Solar is 500 (Min) and Max is 1500 (Max) and the average is 1000, Min is [-500] and Max is [+500] The map is default positive phase, with both included, so for the Min, just flip the correlation coefficient around (+0.3 over Greenland vs -0.3). But it's also part of the same map.

Likely Tropospheric ducting, a atmospheric phenomenon that allows VHF and FM radio signals to travel over a thousand miles beyond their normal range.

Obviously it's going to be modified for this subforum, but the warmer temps are definitely on track for next week as the Omega Block finally breaks down (which is typicaly how temps respond with the strong subsidence in its wake). In fact, a record high of 101*F (you read that right, not a typo) is forecasted here on Wednesday, with 90s expected all next week starting Tuesday. That said, in the mean time, looking at a mostly cloudy weekend on the western fringe of the ULL with highs in the 70s.

Can you do Solar min out to +24 months?

LMAO- Guess its time to change my alias to flood guy now

Duluth, high 81, low 32. It is fairly close to the record high of 88 for this day. The normal low of today is 39 degrees.

Interesting. I guess it is possible that the electrical charge in the air acted as an amplifier/carrier??

Lots of greenhouse gases emitted making and installing those 800 windmills

Currently 47.8/33.4 at 10:50 pm. Although there are frost advisories around me (not my county) I think we will be OK as long as the NW/NNW winds running 4-7 mph continue. Forecast low is 38 here.

It only goes out to +24 months. It would have to be manual to do +3 to +4 years. What I like about the correlation composites, is it takes both sides of the variable into account.. so those images are Solar Max minus Solar Min. Lots of data.

Would you please do this for other years of the cycle?

I'll be at the 500 that Sunday so fingers crossed. I've been to 25 of them. I've seen every type of weather there, 90's fry you like an egg, 40's and 50's freeze your ass off all weekend. Back in the70's and 80's when it was really fun, like no rules fun, you could camp outside the North 40 until 5am Saturday morning then they'd let us into the North 40 to drink all day and night then go into the infield at 5am Sunday and never remember who won. You didnt have to leave until Monday. Think it was 83 when they let us into the infield for the race at 5am Sunday it proceeded to absolutely pour rain off and on for 2 days. They didnt finish the race until Tuesday. They couldn't kick us out. It was absolutely insane. Saw some Canadians fishing from the top of their motorhome with a dildo on the end of a fishing pole by the ladies restroom. Hey 50k bored drunks shits gonna happen lol. (sorry that 5 day weekend was a memory of a lifetime lol). It even snowed (didn't stick) the night before one year. The shit we used to get away with. I ramble.........

Prediction of heavy rain and thunderstorms never materialized but we did pick up .20" in one lone brief heavy rain shower. Temp dropped from 80 to 67 with the rain.